ARCHIVED NEWS ITEMS
Oct 1: Updated the
monthly BLIPMAP usage statistics.
Sept 27:
Contour colour alternatives:
Back on Aug 29 I switched from the "classic" BLIPMAP coloring, which
had been in use for 3 years, to a "fixed" coloring in which a given
color always represents the same value, which also needs a larger
number of colors. Many people preferred the fewer colors of the
original coloring (as noted in posts to the forum). The two
approaches are significantly different, and since individual user
usages/preferences differ neither coloring method can be considered
always "best". So I have now decided to simultaneously produce
both "classic" and "fixed" colored maps and let users make
their own choice of which to utilize! While I will use "classic"
colored maps for links on the "index" pages, since I feel that fewer
colors are best for initial users, the javascript Viewer for
experienced users now has a button to select the coloring method, and
a similar option should later be available for the UniViewer (I've
also added a button allowing users to save default Viewer settings,
such as the coloring type). For those wanting to utilize URLs
directly, as in bookmarks, the image filenames differ with the
classic/fixed colored maps having tails of .png/.PNG
respectively.
Sept 16:
Viewer resizing: The original viewer now allows images to
be re-sized. FYI, to get equal
distances on both RUC and ETA plots, the ETA (RUC) plot should be 64% (157%) of its
original size.
Sept 2:
BLIP SkewT PopUps: For the
original viewer and UniViewer, this new popup provides a sounding based on the exact
same data used for the BLIPMAP - and it available for both ETA and RUC
models so their forecasts can be compared at the same location.
Also, for the RUC viewer it is now possible to get soundings from both the
NWS and FSL RUC variants at the same location as an indication of the
variability/uncertainty of the forecast.
Aug 29:
Fixed contour colours: In
response to user requests, I have implemented "fixed colors" for
many parameters (indicated by "FIX" on the color bar), which will
facilitate comparison of BLIPMAPs between different
times/days/models. The downside is its requirement of a large
number of tints to cover the wide range of possible values, so
distinguishing between tints can be more difficult than when a smaller
range of tints was employed. Those in the east might
experience more tint-resolution problems, since the number of tints
needed for their plots must be increased such that strong western
soaring conditions will lie within the chosen limits - but maybe not.
Comments on this change can be posted to the Blipmap Forum
Aug 27:
BLAST returns: Chuck
Deerinck's BLAST program, which displays BLIPMAP data in SeeYou, is
again running and available at a new URL,
http:www.dragon-aviation.com/Pages/Blast/blast.htm.
Aug 12:
Popup MiniBLIPSPOT Correction: Discovered that for the
convergence vertical velocity parameter the viewer MiniBLIPSPOT pop-up
has been giving values for a location one grid point to the west of
the correct one, so corrected that.
Aug 11:
Additional ETA time: I am now providing ETA
forecasts for both 18Z and 21Z for all regions, instead of just a
single time as previously. The additional times are accessible
through either the original viewer or the UniViewer, not through the
regional "index" page. This change is primarily a response the
fact that the "best soaring time" for regions such as OK/TX tend to
lie between the two times, so this allows users there to look at
either/both times. But users in other regions, such as the east
coast, might also use the 21Z forecasts to view "end of the soaring
day" conditions. The main bottleneck of the ETA forecasts is the
NWS data file download, not the processing, so overall processing
efficiency is not significantly changed.
Aug 5:
RUC miniBLIPSPOT/Sounding PopUps now for
Mozilla too: For both the original viewer and the new
univiewer, these popups now work for Mozilla/Netscape browsers in
addition to IE! Also, I found that I had broken the popup
miniBLIPSPOT and corrected that - all that had been appearing was the
lat/lon and not the data, so if that was all you saw you didn't see
the miniBLIPSPOT!
Aug 3:
RUC+ETA Forecast Availability information: I just realized
that I had forgotten to mention a webpage I had previously created which
gives information on the latest available forecasts times for the RUC
and ETA models.
For the CANV region use the URL
"http://drjack.info/cgi-bin/forecast_availability.cgi?CANV"
- for other regions,
replace CANV by NW, SW, GP, OKTX, NC, SC, NE, or SE
Aug 2:
RUC miniBLIPSPOT/Sounding
PopUps: For RUC BLIPMAPs, both the original BLIPMAP
viewers and the new BLIPMAP
UniViewer can now pop-up either a miniBLIPSPOT and/or a sounding
for any lat/lon via a mouse click at that point. Caveats:
this is for IE users only (see July 31 news item) and miniBLIPSPOTs
are only available to RUC subscribers.
July 31:
RUC Viewer PopUp Soundings: For IE users of the RUC
javascript viewer (not the new UniViewer), a single click on
the BLIPMAP now pops up the corresponding RUC sounding at that
location (from the FSL sounding page). Note that for a "previous
day" BLIPMAP the previous day sounding is shown. Of course, this
is all dependent upon the availability of those soundings on the FSL
website. Also, this can be used to simply get the lat/lon at a
given point, since that is displayed on the sounding. Although I
have performed several successful tests, my IE testing capability is
limited so users should be on the lookout for possible
problems/errors. Any errors should be reported on the DrJack
Forum. [As a Mozilla user it galls me that this function
only works for IE, but cursor position is much more easily available
in IE than in Mozilla/Netscape - if anyone knows how to get cursor
coordinates in Mozilla/Netscape, so that the popup would be available
for that browser also, that knowledge would be greatly
appreciated.]
July 22:
New Viewer: John Whitney has
worked some magick (I understand that a rainy weekend in NJ was partly
responsible) and created a new viewer which has definite advantages
over the current viewer, for example in allowing image resizing and in
usage simplicity. Right now its formatting still somewhat
primitive, it's not a finished or well-tested product (so there may be
hidden bugs), and it's best used only by experienced users - but with
those caveats you are welcome to test fly it for yourself at BLIPMAP
UniViewer Thanks, John
July 20:
Javascript experts: I am
trying to write some javascript code for the BLIPMAP viewers which
would have a left mouse click on a BLIPMAP image pop-up, in a separate
window, the sounding associated with that latitude/longitude.
However I do not know how to do that trick - so if you do know
how, I'd appreciate your replying to my
post on the Blipmap Forum, which also contains more information.
July 19:
ETA-RUC Monthly Differences: Due to interest in
differences between the ETA and RUC model forecasts, I have created
plots of the monthly average differences between model predictions for
selected parameters. They can be viewed using the RUC-ETA
Monthly Difference Viewer
July 6:
Merged RUC+ETA processing: In a significant step toward
obtaining a reliable operational program, I have now switched the RUC
processing to use the same (new) program version as the ETA
processing. There was one glitch associated with the changeover
but that has been corrected. This version will improve somewhat
the times at which new RUC forecasts become available, but the primary
determinant of that is the download speed allowed by the NWS server.
July 4:
Next year update:
In an
earlier announcement giving reasons for wanting to curtail my work
on BLIPMAPs, I said I would provide an update on July
4th. My present plan is to free up time for myself by
reducing time spent on BLIPMAPs to the maximum extent possible come
October, and to that end I expect to put the BLIPMAP processing on
"auto-pilot" status sometime after Oct 1 for a period of
at least a year. The operational status of BLIPMAPs will then be
maintained by the present server system administrator, Richard Hanschu, and
by my involvement when necessary. The bad news (for users) is that I will
then not be making any improvements to BLIPMAPs, no new BLIPSPOTs will
be added, etc. The good news is that because no development will
be undertaken, yearly subscriptions for access to all BLIPMAP forecasts
need cover only server maintenance costs and so will be greatly
reduced, to at least half of what they are at present. I do not
yet have a finished "operational" program (I thought I did back in
April, but that proved to be a false summit) so will spend this summer
refining the present version to make it ready for "auto-pilot"
operation in October.
July 4:
NWS Server having difficulties: The NWS server
came back up around 0630 PDT for a short time but now seems down again. Some BLIPMAP RUC
forecasts were produced while it was up. Interestingly I see that most Unisys
maps are old, so they must be getting their data from that same
server.
July 3:
NWS Server down: No idea when it
will again be available.
June 26:
NWS server download slowdown
lowdown: The NWS server download speeds continue to
decrease so ETA forecasts, which are most affected since their file
sizes are very large, are becoming available increasingly later.
To show how dramatic this decrease is, so you will understand what we
are having to deal with, here is a
plot of daily NWS server download speeds
June 25:
NWS server DOWN: as of 9:48 EDT, so no updated forecasts were
available - but it now appears to have recovered. This is the
first time I've known this to happen for a long period, so am having
to make changes in my scripts.
June 24:
ETA Availability: For the
past two weeks I've been continually working on the question of ETA
BLIPMAP availability, since with the old program some NWS forecast
files were not being obtained due to time constraints. My first
attempt was not satisfactory, but I now have a version which (so far)
is consistently obtaining and processing all forecast files created by
the NWS. I've also spent time working on server processing
performance, which is now more efficient than previously. The
net result is that ETA BLIPMAPs will now be available as soon as
reasonably possible, given the limitations imposed by the slow NWS
server download speeds. I expect to later switch the RUC
forecasting to the new version, since that will result in earlier
availability of its forecasts. So progress is being made.
{However, a consequence of the need to work on this availability
question is that I've had to spend considerable time that otherwise
would have gone into other things, so improvements I had previously
mentioned that I wanted to implement have now been indefinitely
postponed.]
June 18:
Altered 18Z ETA program:
The new program version definitely outperformed the old version yesterday,
so today I also started using it for the operational 18Z forecasts.
June 17:
Altered 21Z ETA program:
Back on June 10 I reported that downloading of the large ETA files
from NWS was taking increasing longer and/or been failing. This
has not changed - it has resulted in long delays before the "latest" results
can be posted on this website and caused some forecasts to be
skipped. To reduce these problems, so far as possible, I have spent
this past week creating and testing an altered program which downloads
available NWS files in parallel (asynchronously) instead of
serially. I have now switched to that version for the
operational processing of the ETA 21Z forecasts, since those have had
more problems than the 18Z forecasts (for unknown reasons). This
version is more complex than the previous one and not as tested, so
"stuff" is more likely to "happen" - but the 21Z downloads have become
so problematical that I felt it important to make this version
operational as soon as possible. Users should be aware that
glitches may be likely for the immediate future - I expect these will
generally be manifest as forecasts not becoming available when
expected. I will be actively monitoring the new program and will
report on any major problems I find as they occur if they affect
users.
By finding and implementing solutions to those glitches as they arise,
I expect to eventually make this version as robust as the previous
one. At some later time I will also switch the RUC and 18Z ETA
forecasts to the new version, after I have determined that it has no major
problems.
June 14:
ETA-RUC Monthly Comparisons: Those who use forecasts from
both the ETA and RUC models may wonder how the forecasts typically
differ the two models. So for selected forecast parameters at
various locations I have computed the monthly average (and variation)
of ETA-RUC
differences.
June 12:
Problems, changes to come:
Back on April 13 I optimistically wrote of having resolved all
problems which affected forecast accuracy or reliability (which I
consider "major" problems since they demand my attention).
However, this past week it has become apparent that for the ETA runs
downloading from the NWS server farm is going to be a continuing
problem impacting the program. This could be helped by altering
my processing method to download files in parallel instead of sequentially,
so I have determined to make that change. However, the changes
needed are significant ones and will require much testing. I
don't know when that new program will become available so in the meantime
we will have to live with uncertain availability of ETA forecasts.
[And my toothache is back - when it rains, it pours.]
June 10:
NWS Server problems: The NWS server supplying the data
files seems to be experiencing problems, as downloads have taken
increasingly longer or been aborted - the result has been missing
ETA BLIPMAP forecasts, expecially the ETA current+2 forecasts.
June 6:
ETA Cumulus Cloudbase/Potential Bug Correction: I have
found and corrected a bug which was producing ETA Cumulus Cloudbase
(Sfc.LCL) predictions much lower than was correct, which in turn
produced bad ETA Cumulus Potential forecasts. Thanks should go
to those users who reported instances of this parameter being
inaccurate on the Blipmap Forum, for it would have been a very long
time (likely the entire season) before I would have found this problem
on my own. Additional information can be found in my forum
posting.
June 3:
Philippe Athuil, holder of multiple world and US records and so
no stranger to long-distance flights, has become an "Angel"
and DrJack thanks him for his support.
May 19: Updated the
"Parameter Details" webpage for the "Height of the BL Top" parameter
to point out how that parameter can be misleading when mixing is
created primarily by wind shear rather than by convective thermals
(i.e. when the B/S value is low).
May 19:
ChicagoLand Glider Council has just become an "Angel"
and DrJack thanks them for their support.
May 17: Subscription Access Now
Active: As previously announced on March 9,
"subscription-only" access was today made active for many forecasts -
this is described in more detail on the Subscription
webpage.
May 16: SSAers:
Recently I was contacted by a representative of the SSA wanting to
discuss BLIPMAP's future. As I've written elsewhere, this is not
the time for such discussions - I do not have the needed time, I don't
feel ready to make such decisions, and (as I've also written
elsewhere) I am tired and in an irritable mood. I can't give
answers when I don't know what the answers are myself. From the
start this has been an evolutionary process, and that evolution is not
complete. Right now I need time to recover and to have a chance
to step back and evaluate what has been achieved to date, the effect
of the recently introduced changes, and where it would be best to go
from here. Sometimes one's mental state is such that he should
not fly, and right now I don't trust mine to make such
decisions. A continuing insistence on having answers provided
immediately is not helpful to the cause, and I get angry when others
don't appear to understand or accept that position.
May 15: Free of Pain: I don't normally put personal
items here, but my joy can't be restrained. For the past two months
I've had a toothache which had really worn me down - but last Thursday
they finally figured out what was wrong and today I can report that I
am once again enjoying life pain-free!
May 15: BLAST users:
Chuck Deerinck's site has gone down and with it all access to his
BLAST program. He (and I) are working on a solution which will
transfer things to my site and get them back up and running
again. I will let you know when that is in place.
May 11: The sky is not falling
(yet): Recently I've heard that some users, after
reading my subscription decision webpages, are afraid that BLIPMAPs
are going to suddenly vanish in a puff of smoke. Those web pages
indicate that for the forecasts to continue I do need to free up time
for myself. And I do need to generate a source of funding
instead of continuing to work gratis. But I have been thinking
about these issues for many months and hope I have a viable plan for
achieving those ends: first by establishing a subscription base
and secondly by shifting my efforts, including some to others.
Of course it is possible that my plans will not work as
expected. But that will reveal itself as time goes by, and
should that not go as hoped I would not continue on that same
course but instead investigate alternatives and additional ways in
which users could assist. In any event, I will continue to keep
you informed, as I have in the past. My present expectation is
that I would provide an update on July 4, since that date is
associated with independence. In the meantime:
chill. I will be implementing subscriptions soon and we
shall simply see how things go from that point onward. If a time
to panic ever does arrive, I will definitely let you know.
May 7: Subscription
Update: I now expect to establish "subscription-only"
access to most forecasts, as originally announced on March 9 and
described in more detail on the Subscription
webpage, on May 17.
May 1: Updated the
BLIPMAP To-Do List.
April 30: New System Administrator: I have
asked Richard Hanschu, who flies out of the Williams (CA) Soaring Center,
to become system adminstrator of the BLIPMAP dedicated server.
One reason is to re-cycle those funds back into the soaring community
(they had been going to Denmark!) - but I also think that
Richard will prove to be a better administrator (though, like me, he
is undoubtably underpaid!).
Apr 29: For the birds: Lately I've been
getting quite a few registrations who indicate their pilot type as
"none of the above" and have UserIDs such as "raptorhal", "birdherd",
"falcosparverius", etc. So I've put two-and-two together and
now added a "Birdwatcher" choice to the registration signup list!
Apr 28: Server has the "slows": For security
reasons yesterday I upgraded the server's Red Hat "Enterprise" (sic)
Server kernel - but this has greatly affected (adversely) the
processing and last night's "load average" went way above previous
values and the RUC 21Z forecast did not get processed until 4.5 hours
after its previous "normal" time. So it's very likely that
processing will also be very slow today and some forecasts will likely
be skipped. And you might experience a significant slowing of
response time on the website. I am working on this new problem,
but it may take at least a few more days to figure things out so don't
be surprised if there are processing/website problems for the
immediate future. Update: I have now altered some
of the kernel parameters from the RedHat-supplied values and seem to
have the system again operating respectably.
April 15-20:
I thank Richard Hanschu (who flies out of Williams CA)
for watching over BLIPMAP processing while
I was away from home and without Internet
access.
April 13:
Good news: I have resolved (for the time being, at least)
all known outstanding major problems with the processing program !
(i.e. those problems which affected forecast accuracy or reliability)
Although most changes made over the past months were not
visible to users, they were necessary to provide a stable foundation -
for instance, establishing procedures for dealing with the various
data access problems which can arise. I am now turning to
"minor" outstanding issues, the first being to set "fixed color"
plotting for the W* parameter. Here the good news is that I have
now re-coded both my plotting program and the processing program to
allow that - and those coding changes worked successfully in simple
test runs. But the bad news is that when I tested it "for real"
the "non-fixed" parameters failed to plot, for reasons presently
unknown. I think I am close to success - but right now don't
know where the error lies. This has taken enough time so far
that I must postpone further work until later in the summer, but
someday it will get done.
April 11: New Wind Shear
Parameter: I have now added the "BL Wind Shear"
parameter, previously used only for the ETA forecasts, to the RUC
model predictions.
April 10: Apologies: I will be away for 6 days next
week, visiting among other places Harris Hill, and have been working
on providing a capability for others to "babysit" the programs under
such circumstances. Last night I tested a simple program stop
and restart sequence using that capability and my check of the progress
file produced indicated that all was well, so I went to bed and
thought no more about it. Today, however, while using the
website I noticed that the RUC forecast plots were reported as "not
available", which was strange since I knew they were being
produced. In short, a subtlety resulted in the processing
program running successfully but an auxiliary program which copies the
resulting forecasts to the website was not working. So I have
corrected that and all should work well with the new processing
tonight - yet another bug quashed. I usually try to avoid any
testing on Fri/Sat evenings since the Sat/Sun forecasts are heavily
used - in this case I felt there was little chance of something going
wrong, especially since I was monitoring things closely, but I was
wrong (yet again). I apologize for being the cause of the missing
RUC forecasts today.
April 9: I have updated the
BLIPMAP FAQ webpage.
April 5: SWITCH TO NCEP RUC
BLIPMAPs: Oops, I've needed to change from the FSL
(research) to the NCEP (operational) RUC forecasts sooner than I
expected. With the change to daylight savings time my older
processing program, which analyzes the FSL model data, broke and
rather than try to fix it I've simply stopped running that job since I
would need to do that eventually in any case. Actually, my new
program also had problems with the time change, but I have now fixed
that. The FSL RUC forecasts were very useful, but time marches on
and for me the time has come to focus solely on the new processing
program. I again thank Vit Hradecky for hosting the old
processing program on his machine. I have implemented
redirections which take old bookmarks to the "new" (NCEP) RUC
forecasts locations, but you might want to save new bookmarks
containing the new addresses.
April 5: drjack.NET bookmarks
now WORK!?: A month ago I posted a news item here
warning that bookmarks which use "drjack.NET" were no longer working -
but now they seem to be working again!? I had no good
explanation for why they failed to work back then and have no good
explanation for why they are once again working! (Hey, I'm just
a meteorologist!) My guess is that when I switched registrars
their "domain pointing" feature was not as advanced as it should have
been but they have now upgraded that. While users are welcome to
use old bookmarks if they work, please remember that the "official"
domain name is "drjack.info" and use of that name is less likely to
have problems than the older "drjack.net" name.
Mar 22: I'm having to make another major change in the
algorithm by which files are obtained from the NCEP server.
Though so far it has worked in my test runs, it has not been tested
under all the different failure scenarios that can occur under
operational conditions, so for the immediate future there will be an
increased possibility of that forecasts might be missing. I
have waited until after the weekend to introduce this change and will
of course be monitoring the situation and expect to eventually find
and fix any problems that may develop.
Mar 21: Turbulence
ahead: This soaring season there will be many changes
from last year's BLIPMAP/BLIPSPOTs. While I have provided
notices of these changes in previous "news" items, for user
convenience I have now assembled them together in a summary
description of forecast changes for 2004.
Mar 9: BLIPMAP access for this
soaring season: I have decided on the structure for
BLIPMAP access for this year, which I have changed from that indicated
in the User Survey. See the
subscription decision webpage.
Mar 8:
Survey summary available:
I have placed on-line
summary results from the second BLIPMAP User Survey.
I thank all those who participated.
Mar 5: BEWARE of bookmarks
containing IP numbers: For a short time during at the
introduction of the new website it was resolving as an IP number
instead of as "www.drjack.info". If anyone saved bookmarks (or
cookies) during that time it will contain that IP number and not work
properly with a cookie (or bookmark) saved using
"www.drjack.info". So if you are experiencing difficulty
accessing some individual maps, check to see if they inadvertently use
the IP address and if so replace them with bookmarks using
"www.drjack.info". Additional information is available in a
Forum posting: Beware of
bookmarks with IP _numbers_.
March 3: Alternate BLIP display
formats: In addition to the traditional BLIPMAP plot,
BLIP data can now also be viewed in alternative graphical display
formats using two different
BLIP data display programs, written by Chuck Deerinck and Dale
Kramer Those programs utilize BLIP data files downloaded from
the DrJack website - if anyone else is interested in utilizing those
files, further information is available at the
BLIP data description page.
March 1: Domain name resolution problems:
There were some domain name resolution problems Sun evening associated
with a change in nameserver, causing the site to be treated as an IP
number instead of "drjack.info". They did not affect obtaining
the webpages but did affect my email and the registration
cookies. I seem to be getting email again and although things
seem to be working properly again have turned off the registration
system for a day to allow any changes to propagate through the web.
Feb 29: PRELIMINARY ETA
FORECASTS: In my User Survey form I gave a brief
synopsis of reasons for pursuing ETA BLIPMAP forecasts, but did not
have space for an extended description or to explain why the RUC
(traditional) and ETA BLIPMAPs each have advantages and disadvantages
and so complement each other. Although I have not read all the
surveys (at 450 and counting, you can figure out for yourself how long
that's going to take me) I have scanned many of the overall comments
and can see that some are unclear about RUC vs ETA differences and
advantages. I have now been running ETA forecasts for about a
month and while there are still things I want to tweak, they are
sufficiently stable that I have decided to announce their availability
so that users will be able to to investigate and to use them prior to
the spring/summer soaring season, to see for themselves what they are
like. While that section of my website is still under
construction, the forecast links do work. I have also added some
webpages to describe RUC vs ETA differences and present "issues" with
the ETA forecasts. If you find any problems in the forecasts or
in accessing them, please let me know. In short, ETA BLIPMAP
forecasts can now be viewed by following the regional links given at
http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/ETA
Feb 24:
Registration Activation: Today
I turned on "registered user access only".
Those using cookies will need to get a new cookie due to the domain
name change from "drjack.net" to "drjack.info" (but my
cookies are only good for a year, so you would have had to get a new
one sometime this soaring season anyway). If the "Forecast
Access for Non-Registered Visitors" screen appears, then you should
click the "Get new cookie" link to do so. Those using the
javascript viewer or who just want to get a new cookie can use the registration
Logon page Those users using "cookie-less" access methods should
not be affected. If you experience problems you cannot resolve,
please let me know via a posting to the Blipmap Forum.
Feb 21:
Website Progress: Putting this new website together is
running into more than the usual problems and is taking longer than
expected, but progress is being made. As you can see I
now have the "news" operating again. I have also altered the
nameserver operation so that new bookmarks should automatically
incorporate the new domain name "drjack.info". Registration is
presently non-functional so it will remain turned off until I can get
it working properly. Some other functions, such as the "website
statistics" logging, also need work. Accordingly, I have had to
delay posting of the 2003 User Survey Questionnaire but hope to do so
within the next two-four weeks and will send an email to all
registered users when that is available on-line.
Feb 8:
THE 2004 WEBSITE IS NEW, WITH DOMAIN NAME
"drjack.info":
I had to put a new website, on a new server, on-line suddenly while it
was still under construction, but now have it mostly working.
With this move, the official name is now "drjack.info" because I think
"info", rather than "net", better expresses what this website is for.
Due to the domain name change, if you obtained your present
registration cookie at the old 2003 website you will need to get a new
cookie for this website - see the Feb 24 "News" item for more
info. The old domain name "drjack.net" should also point here so
your old bookmarks should still work - but that may at times be flaky
so use of a new bookmark with the "drjack.info" domain name is
recommended.
Feb 7:
Website lost!
For as yet unclear reasons, I suddenly lost my old website so needed
to immediately put a new website on-line.
Dec 29:
Dallas Gliding Association has just become an "Angel"
and DrJack thanks them for their support.
Dec 22:
Do hawks use BLIPMAPs? Apparently so, or at least that is
one possible interpretation of the findings of Canadian naturalist
Paul Summerskill who studied migration routes within the eastern and
central continental flyways of North America for the 2003 spring and
fall migrations and wrote in his report: "The relationship of
[BLIPMAP] Thermal Updraft Velocity to the preferred direction of
flight over and adjacent to hawk-watch sites proved to be valuable in
locating flights and in predicting large or small counts."
Nov 22:
AOL and aggressive anti-spam
users: For those who have forgotten their
registration password and asked that it be sent to them via the "User
Info Recovery" webpage, I have found that the email sent is being
intercepted by some overly aggressive anti-spam filters, including
"challenge/response" software, so you will not receive it unless
you go to the mailbox where it has been sent!
Oct 30: Website Operational Again:
Yesterday's problems due to my website provider "upgrading" the
website have been fixed and the website is working again.
Oct 19: DrJack Flies Convergence
After years of predicting convergence lines, pointing them out on
BLIPMAP forecasts in talks, and hearing of the convergence line
flights of others, I finally got a chance to see what one was like by
following one back to Hollister CA. I've decided I like
flying straight and level in a glider.
Oct 10: AOL users:
"In our continuing efforts to serve you better" :-) I have added a
header to the forecast images which should prevent AOL caching servers
from caching those images, so the forecast you get will be the latest
one and not a now-outdated cached forecast previously requested by
another AOL user. However, your local browser will still
cache the images to allow you to (say) rapidly shift between images in
the viewer [if an updated image is desired in the viewer you, just as
non-AOL users, must click on its "New Cache" button]. If any
problems are experienced with this, please let me know.
Sep 23: FSL sounding webpage:
For those who use the FSL forecast sounding webpage to supplement the
BLIP forecasts, I have discovered that two factors degrade the data
used by the FSL sounding forecast webpage and thus can produce
apparent discrepancies when compared to the BLIP predictions - so I have
added a note on this to the "Frequently Asked
Questions" page.
Sep 22: Dueling BLIPMAPs:
There have been some strange problems lately, including loss of
"previous" day results. I finally figured out that Bill Hall's
machine has come back on-line and both his and Vit's machine
have been running BLIPMAPs! I have now killed the automatic
scheduler on Bill's machine so things should be back to
"normal" tomorrow.
Sep 6: Land use info:
Everyone knows that thermal production is very dependent upon the
surface type. The RUC model considers surface type but only on a
rather coarse scale. For those interested in seeing the surface
type variation I have now added maps of surface types to the
regional grid orientation webpage. Additional information is
available at the Model Notes
webpage.
Sep 5: Normal operation:
Yesterday's slow transmission speed appears to have been a transient
difficulty and the processing is running normally this AM.
Sep 4: More difficulties:
While BLIPMAP processing is running, for some reason the internet
transfer speed is unworkably slow this evening on the new machine
- 5 times slower than my dialup modem! This was not the case in
my earlier test runs so I hope/assume it is a temporary condition.
Sep 3: SUCCESS:
Thanks to Vit Hradecky's compilation of a new graphics program and my
finding a years-old bug in my plotting program, BLIPMAPs are again
up and running. The processing-to-website transfer speed is
at least twice as fast on the new machine, so "first of the day" BLIPMAPs
should be available at least 30 mins earlier than previously.
Sep 3: MAJOR PROBLEM:
FSL data is now being obtained and I fixed another piece that "broke" in
the transition, but the graphics program is also broken and at this
point I do not know how to fix it so when/if BLIPMAPs will become
available is presently unknown.
Aug 30: OUTAGE:
Bill Hall has had to pull the plug on his machine and FSL
has not added the IP of Vit Hradecky's machine to their allowed list,
so FSL data cannot be obtained and no BLIPMAPs are available.
I expect this to be the case until after the holiday.
Aug 28: NOTICE:
Bill Hall is moving and we have suddenly needed to change the
processing from his machine to Vit Hradecky's volunteered
machine. I am still working on making needed changes and
some things may break so do not be surprised if BLIPMAPs become
unavailable - if that happens I will work to restore them as soon as
possible, so please do not email me concerning any such outage.
Aug 23:
Those concerned with DrJack's health, mental and otherwise, will be
glad to hear that I took a sailplane flight today - for the first time in
10½ months (staying up 2 hrs until I got tired).
Aug 10:
I was away for the weekend and did not know that BLIPMAPs had
developed a problem until I returned Sunday evening. I have fixed
that problem and BLIPMAPs are again being produced. FYI I do feel
committed to keeping BLIPMAPs operating through the end of this
soaring season (barring some major problem developing), but I no
longer make the near-daily checks that I formerly did (e.g. previously
when away from home I had taken my old laptop so I could do so) since
I consider myself on "vacation". Similarly, while I still read email
and forum postings, since that is quickly done, I am not now spending
the time needed to respond to them.
July 19:
"Vacation" Update:
Although I have not been answering emails or Forum posts, I have not
yet been able to actually begin my longed-for "vacation" because
behind the scenes several BLIPMAP-related demands arose which could
not be deferred! (namely, a pilot report of a model glitch which
required discussion and investigation by both FSL and myself, a so far
unresolved communication slowdown, and an enquiry from the SSA
BOD) So I am now going to try again to begin my BLIPMAP-free
vacation, but before doing so thought I should update you on one
important decision I have made in the past two weeks, namely that
BLIPMAPs will not survive in their present form next
season. Rather than fill up this message area, I have
created a separate webpage giving my thoughts on next
year's BLIPMAPs.
July 11:
The transfer speed at the processing site has slowed by a factor of
10 this last week, for unknown reasons, affecting forecast availability.
July 4:
DrJack Declares Independence!
The DrJack soaring forecasts have been frozen so that I can take an
indefinite vacation from that work and spend time on other
concerns. There will be an announcment posted here if DrJack is
later unfrozen. Thanks for your understanding.
Further information
July 3:
Convergence Parameter Updated: What
had been the "BL Max. Upward Motion"
parameter is now the "BL Max. Up/Down
Motion" parameter, i.e. I have made what had been the
"Experimental" parameter permanent since it contains all the
information of the previous parameter and adds useful information on
where extensive sinking motion may exist.
July 2:
Registration update: Subsequent to one early glitch, in the
first week of May, I have found no problems in the registration
system, despite diligent investigation - instead, all problems
reported to me have turned out to be user errors such as using
incorrect passwords, supplying incorrect email addresses, etc.
June 23:
The website down for about 16 hours yesterday. All email sent
to me was lost.
June 21: Updated the
Contributors webpage.
June 14:
The website down for around an hour early this AM.
June 7:
Updated
pilot flight experiences using BLIPMAPs.
June 2:
What kind of accuracy can be expected from these forecasts? The
question of surface temperature prediction accuracy has come up on the
Blipmap Forum so I've posted a
predicted vs observed Tmax comparison for a remote ridgetop, since
that is a location where soaring pilots would like to have good
predictions.
May 28: DrJack thanks his
users for their support! It is most gratifying that 93%
of the BLIPMAP requests are now coming from registered users.
DrJack likes to occasionally pause while at the computer to see the
number of users that hour and obtain pleasure and motivation
therefrom. The present fractions of Sailplane, HangGlider, and
ParaGlider registrations are 81%, 13%, and 5%. Those who are interested in the size of the group they
belong to can check out the
number of active registered users, which is
updated daily.
May 17: Now for all
regions, viewing multiple times without using javascript can be done
using the Multi-Time BLIPMAP Index.
May 16:
I got my allotted one inspiration per year yesterday and have now
augmented "cookieless" access for registered users to allow cookieless
access via the regional BLIPMAP pages and javascript viewers as
well as for individual maps.
May 14:
Prior to today the registration software did not detect
whether your browser had cookies enabled and would blithely tell you a
cookie had been "successfully sent" even when it was not successfully
received! If you have been experiencing difficulty your browser might
not have cookies enabled - you can test that by clicking on the Cookie Tester to
get a message "Cookies are enabled" or "Cookies are disabled" (if you
get neither, then you must not have Javascript enabled!)
May 7:
I added more information on how to deal with possible problems to the
Registration
Information webpage, although I have had remarkably
few messages describing difficulties and so far 650 registered users
have been able to successfully view forecasts.
May 6:
I implemented a module to let registered viewers who have forgotten
their password or userID send that information to the email address
supplied when registering.
May 4:
For those who tried to access or "Login" this AM and received an
error, that problem has now been corrected. The long story is
provided here.
May 1: Today I implemented a system
which registers users of DrJack forecasts. The locations
of the individual forecasts have therefore changed! The
primary reason for this change is to better assess present forecast
use. Further information is provided when you click on a
forecast link, if you are not yet registered, and at the Registration
Information webpage.
April 29:
Updated
BLIPMAP "to-do" projects list.
Apr 21:
THIS IS THE NEW WEBSITE ! If
you are reading this then you are at the new website! I have
constructed it to (hopefully) be identical to the previous one, but if
you find something that does not seem to work properly please let me
know as there are likely undiscovered bugs/deficiencies.
Apr 2: I got some
feedback on the April 1 BLIPMAPs!
Mar 30 The clouds are fixed!
I finally got things sorted out and am now running a
corrected program with BLIPMAP cloud predictions turned back on.
Bob Gibbons of Texas deserves thanks for having both the initiative to
critically evaluate the "Cumulus Cloudbase" prediction and the
knowledge to compare it to a simple surface-humidity LCL condensation
formula. As a check, the "EXPERIMENTAL" parameter in the BLIPs
will give the approximate formula prediction, which should be within
5% of the printed "Surface LCL" - after the validity of the latter has
been demonstrated I will remove the EXPERIMENTAL parameter
print. Those interested in additional details can read the
"Sfc-humidity LCL: short and long stories" posting on the Blipmap Forum.
Mar 24: Contributors:
I have added an option to send you, if interested, a daily email when
the first BLIPMAP is produced for your region (this is primarily
useful on those days when the "first of the day" BLIPMAP is delayed
and you may want to "filter" it to a mailbox separate from your main
mailbox). If you wish to be added to that list please let me
know.
Mar 22: BLIPMAP "HELP" page created:
This is now the primary source for finding additional on-line information about
BLIPMAPs and is the first place to look if you have a question about BLIPMAPs or are a new user - it is
available at
the
BLIPMAP Help webpage.
Mar 21:
Updated the
Info on First Available Times.
Mar 21: Parameter descriptions
changed I have rewritten the parameter descriptions on
this page and created a new linked page with "parameter details",
with some diagrams, at the "MoreInfo" link of each
parameter. Having a "parameter details" page provide a good
basis for further growth since info can be added to it which would be
too cumbersome to add to the basic parameter description. If you
think anything can be improved upon or added to or leaves a question
unanswered, please let me know and I will make changes.
Mar 21:
A Google Search specific to the drjack website has now been added (see bottom of this page)
Mar 15:
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO BLIPMAP !!!
March 16 is the first anniversary of the day on which the first nationwide
BLIPMAP forecasts became available. When did you first hear about them??
Mar 13:
More timely forecasts! Additional forecasts have just
been implemented, so the BLIPMAPs you get will now have the the most
timely information possible. Last summer, when the processing
was being done on my old, slow machine, I was forced to provide only
half the possible forecasts, i.e. even though FSL provides updated
forecasts every 3 hours I was skipping every other one. Some
users have noted that the forecasts sometimes change rapidly in the AM
when conditions are uncertain. Also, some have to leave their
houses (and their internet connection) hours in advance to drive to
the gliderport. These additional forecasts will help such users,
and all users, to have more timely forecasts than were previously
possible. I should note that this is being done only after
coordinating with Bill Hall, and he has agreed to this change which
requires more processing on his machine. There is always the
chance that this will later prove to be more of a burden than
anticipated and have to be reversed - Bill is doing everyone a great
service so this processing should not become bothersome to him.
Feb 28:
Added a "Rainfall and Soil Moisture" note to the
model prediction notes.
Feb 13:
I have created climatology plots from the 2002
forecasts, giving the monthly average of each parameter for
each time of day (when available). In addition, I have computed
statistics giving the average, standard deviation, minimum, and
maximum for all parameters for all regions. These plots and
statistics can be accessed via the
BLIPmap 2002 Climatology webpage.
Feb 5:
In response to the many requests received on the first BLIPMAP User Survey,
I have created a
discussion group for thermal soaring forecasts and meteorology and
I am asking that BLIPMAP users generally use that forum if they have a
question or comment, since it likely is also of interest to someone else
in the soaring community,
rather than simply sending an email to me directly
- although the latter
is of course appropriate if there is some comment you wish to keep private.
Mar 7:
CA-NV Users:
Daily "WINDIP" forecasts of upper-air winds and a simple mt. wave
forecast are once again available at the WINDIP webpage.
Feb 3:
Updated the webpage giving information on creating new
BLIPSPOT prediction locations nation-wide.
Note that there must
be a contribution to the BLIPMAP effort, of either money or time, to
create a new BLIP for your location.
Jan 28:
Activated two new parameters intended to help forecast the presence and
cloudbase of small puffy cumulus clouds that form in the BL.
As indicated in their description, there is a theoretical difficulty
with these parameters but I have had several reports that for some sites
the method is nevertheless effective so decided to include them and
let users evaluate how well these parameters work for their site.
Jan 27: I'm glad I was able to meet many BLIPMAP
users while at the SSA Convention in Dayton and at the Wright Aviation
Museum and appreciate being presented with an SSA Exceptional
Achievement Award there. I have placed
on-line the slides
presented in my talk at the 2003 SSA Convention.
Jan 17:
Summarized
results from the first BLIPMAP User Survey
are now available
Jan 1, 2003:
Congratulations to the first three awardees of the newly
created "Order of the BLIPMAP Hero": Milt Hare (who flies his ASH-25
out of Williams, CA), Bill Hall (who flies with the Greater
Boston Soaring Council), and John Whitney (who flies his ASW-20 at
Blairstown, N.J.). As a testimonial to the time and effort they
have voluntarily put into helping make BLIPMAP a product useful to pilots
across the country, they have been presented with a "BLIPMAP HERO"[tm]
award suitable for displaying on any T-shirt, sweat-shirt, or
undergarment of their choice! These awards are not available for purchase in
any store.
Let's have a hearty round of applause for our "heroes"!
Dec 29,2002:
In response to user requests, to aid orientation with respect to the
smoothed model topography I have modified my plotting program so
placename IDs can be plotted on a BLIPMAP region. The first
such plot has been created for AZ (SouthWest region) based on data provided by
Gary Evans, so to see what one looks like you can view it
here.
There are currently (sparse) ID plots available for the CA-NV, NorthEast, SouthEast, OK-TX, NorthCentral, SouthCentral, and SouthWest regions: to view
your region's ID plot or if you are interested in adding IDs for
your region, see the
regional
orientation webpage.
Sept 23:
Who Uses BLIPMAPs?
Of the 1,021 people who responded to a 3 week poll,
80% were Sailplane PIlots,
15% were HangGlider Pilots,
4% were ParaGlider Pilots,
0.6% were Weather Enthusiasts,
0.5% were Weather Workers,
and 0.4% were None of the Above.
Based on SSA and USHGA membership numbers, equally random voting
from SailPlane/HangGlider/ParaGlider pilots would have given
respective percentages of roughly
50/25/25 - the difference between those percentages and the
actual results suggests to me that those who fly longer distances are
more likely to use BLIPMAPs.
Sept 2:
Remarkable convergence prediction!
Labor Day (today) was a remarkable day in the Sierras with many
long flights. I was particularly interested in reports of a very
long convergence line which moved eastward with time, since the
BLIPMAPs predicted the occurrence of just such a convergence!
Moreover, subsequence comparison to satellite photos confirms not only
that BLIPMAP prediction but also it's prediction of a second (unflown)
convergence line! I have created viewers to look at the hourly
development and movement of both the convergence line forecasts and
the satellite photos, with viewing instructions and a brief
description,
here.
Aug 18: THE FUTURE ??
I have begun experimenting with BLIPMAPs using the NWS 12km ETA model
instead of the FSL 20km RUC model. Advantages of the ETA are its
higher resolution, 12km instead of 20km, and it provides extended
forecasts out to 84 hours. Some results, for the "Current+2" and
"Current+3" days only, can be viewed here [Note: the ETA regional
areas differ from those of the RUC FSL model due to differing map
projections used - if you find a different region is needed, go to the
regional ETA webpage]. The
program is still under development and these forecasts are not
being updated daily, but these plots do illustrate what can be
done. At present, the accuracy of ETA vis-a-vis RUC is not known
and the accuracy of the longer-range forecasts is especially
unknown. Whether such products might become regular predictions
is uncertain, as each forecast requires downloading a half-gigabyte
file and there is a cost associated with that.
July 25: Added a link to an on-line version
of the July 2002 SOARING magazine
BLIPMAP article,
which is a good "first thing
to read" for potential BLIPMAP users.
Mar 16, 2002: DrJack done wrote hisself an article giving motivations
for BLIPMAP use, a discussion of some parameters provided, how BLIPMAPs
are computed, and the future that might be anticipated for such soaring
forecasts. It is a manuscript submitted to SOARING
magazine for publication consideration and they have requested that
the manuscript not be "web published" prior to any publication they
might make but have indicated that I can provide individual "copies" to interested
individuals, so
if you wish to prevue this article let me know by email
and I will reply with the
URL address at which it can be viewed.