DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 02/06 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1017z - - 1350z - - 1616z - - 1914z - - 2207z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 33.2 - - 48.3 - - 54.6 - - 52.2 - - 41.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -27 - - 229 - - 282 - - -1 - - -44 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2921 - - 4859 - - 5907 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4496 - - 6601 - - 8159 - - 4496 - - 4496 Hcrit BL Top 4514 - - 7749 - - 9687 - - 10735 - - 4514 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 255 - - 1860 - - 1455 - - 1260 - - 335 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 365 - - 465 - - 67 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 125 - - 12 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 1 - - 7 - - 9 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 042 - - 347 - - 290 - - 292 - - 022 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 14 - - 8 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg -16 - - -9 - - -6 - - -13 - - -30 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1611 - - -1571 - - -2355 - - -712 - - -5326 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6125 - - 9321 - - 12042 - - 11447 - - 9841 sfcLCL ODpotential -9362 - - -6567 - - -6826 - - -5437 - - -12170 ODpotential blCL 13876 - - 14316 - - 16513 - - 16172 - - 16684 blCL maxRH 59 - - 53 - - 55 - - 61 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 33.2 - - 48.3 - - 54.6 - - 52.2 - - 41.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.5 - - 23.2 - - 17.2 - - 17.7 - - 14.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 34.8 - - 47.5 - - 53.4 - - 53.2 - - 43.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.5 - - 23.2 - - 17.2 - - 17.7 - - 14.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -27 - - 229 - - 282 - - -1 - - -44 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2921 - - 4859 - - 5907 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 74783 11 109 15 104 11 100 14 100 15 109 74783 61309 3 066 5 295 4 223 9 241 12 281 61309 55796 9 266 19 281 13 301 11 298 18 299 55796 51322 20 310 25 294 21 292 30 291 31 291 51322 47934 31 291 36 295 34 302 39 302 36 311 47934 44383 35 295 33 298 40 307 43 302 44 309 44383 43161 38 304 33 301 42 304 45 304 51 308 43161 41830 44 307 36 307 49 301 50 312 53 309 41830 40904 50 303 40 312 49 299 51 313 55 310 40904 40274 55 301 44 317 46 298 49 312 57 310 40274 39661 55 297 49 318 43 300 50 310 59 311 39661 38830 55 297 56 316 44 305 59 311 62 312 38830 38068 55 300 62 314 47 310 66 308 63 312 38068 37697 56 303 62 311 50 312 68 308 62 314 37697 37339 55 305 55 313 53 312 66 311 63 314 37339 37125 64 309 58 312 55 311 62 316 62 315 37125 36852 71 308 70 306 60 306 64 317 63 315 36852 36149 77 306 75 302 65 304 65 309 66 307 36149 35449 83 303 79 302 66 299 67 304 62 304 35449 32857 81 298 78 304 68 296 68 296 63 303 32857 29134 77 297 76 305 68 296 66 291 64 302 29134 26581 73 296 73 302 67 300 61 299 58 302 26581 24837 68 297 69 296 66 297 60 303 54 305 24837 22629 62 296 65 296 62 298 57 303 51 308 22629 21143 57 291 59 297 57 299 53 301 46 307 21143 19615 51 295 52 296 50 295 49 297 43 299 19615 17586 43 302 45 294 45 291 45 297 40 295 17586 15036 37 302 37 298 37 295 39 301 35 300 15036 13728 30 307 31 300 28 297 31 310 26 304 13728 12177 24 315 24 304 24 299 27 313 19 307 12177 11108 16 305 18 300 19 302 23 316 14 312 11108 10338 12 308 15 289 18 301 16*321 8 304 10338 9926 8 310 12 284 18*302 11*297 6 310 9926 9528 6 319 9 281 16*303 11 295 5 311 9528 9135 5 329 8 279 14 304 11 294 3 310 9135 8747 3 346 7 280 10 302 10 293 2 314 8747 8363 3 032 7 282 8 296 10 292 2 342 8363 7983 3 067 5*289 7 293 10 292 4 002 7983 7607 3 086 4*306 7 291 10 293 6 010 7607 7235 4 112 2 336 6 288 9 292 8 012 7235 6867 5 129 2 013 6 285 9 291 10 015 6867 6503 5 137 2 031 6 282 8 291 12 017 6503 6143 5 146 2 047 5 279 8 290 15 019 6143 5786 6 135 1 059 5 275 7 290 17 022 5786 5433 7 115 1 201 4 272 6 288 20 025 5433 5084 9 098 1 209 4 267 6 286 21 028 5084 4853 11 081 2 209 4 267 5 286 19 029 4853 4682 12 060 2 211 4 263 4 285 15 026 4682 4569 9*048 2 211 3 262 4 285 12*023 4569 4513 7*042 2 211 3 258 3 284 9*021 4513 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography