DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 05/22 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0705z - - 1005z - - 1347z - - 1607z - - 1905z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.7 - - 71.8 - - 80.2 - - 77.0 - - 73.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 28 - - 272 - - 318 - - 48 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 571 - - 1899 - - 4570 - - 7 - - 7 BL Depth Hcrit 700 - - 1773 - - 3847 - - 700 - - 699 Hcrit BL Top 1280 - - 2608 - - 5279 - - 716 - - 716 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1327 - - 1644 - - 2050 - - 6106 - - 5308 Hgt.Variab. W* 108 - - 328 - - 467 - - 34 - - 12 W* B/S 6 - - 11 - - 87 - - 8 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 329 - - 040 - - 101 - - 104 - - 114 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 2 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 196 - - 290 - - 1128 - - -2681 - - -955 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1084 - - 2318 - - 4151 - - 3397 - - 1671 sfcLCL ODpotential 137 - - 74 - - -523 - - -2797 - - -1293 ODpotential blCL 1143 - - 2534 - - 5802 - - 3513 - - 2009 blCL maxRH 100 - - 94 - - 90 - - 97 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 260 - - 900 - - 2220 - - 1780 - - 2780 CAPE Temp@2m 65.7 - - 71.8 - - 80.2 - - 77.0 - - 73.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.9 - - 63.5 - - 64.2 - - 64.1 - - 68.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 65.0 - - 69.6 - - 77.7 - - 76.3 - - 73.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 63.3 - - 63.9 - - 64.6 - - 64.5 - - 68.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 28 - - 272 - - 318 - - 48 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 571 - - 1899 - - 4570 - - 7 - - 7 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 100 - - 77 - - 61 - - 88 - - 80 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 12 - - 11 - - 13 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98292 13 215 12 249 9 212 18 205 19 250 98292 91025 9 240 3 198 4 243 7 231 10 296 91025 85388 5 282 5 083 1 341 1 216 7 316 85388 80688 5 034 5 042 0 321 6 049 4 285 80688 76621 7 073 5 008 3 147 5 020 3 229 76621 73032 5 085 6 005 4 160 4 291 1 190 73032 69778 2 272 5 344 3 136 6 254 4 304 69778 66787 9 259 7 287 2 265 2 258 3 347 66787 64037 9 237 10 252 6 260 2 314 3 066 64037 61463 6 180 12 228 12 243 3 270 3 187 61463 58703 5 209 15 218 18 230 9 226 9 215 58703 55701 13 239 18 218 22 227 16 231 17 210 55701 52865 18 235 21 220 26 222 23 233 21 212 52865 50338 17 232 24 217 29 218 29 225 25 218 50338 48055 18 225 26 215 31 219 31 220 27 222 48055 45979 22 215 26 213 32 220 30 222 27 225 45979 44096 25 205 24 210 31 217 31 221 25 230 44096 42389 21 198 19 207 29 211 30 212 24 229 42389 40831 12 208 12 222 24 204 26 200 22 218 40831 39389 6 255 9 258 18 196 18 197 16 200 39389 38034 10 263 9 263 10 200 10 217 1 233 38034 36749 13 241 10 238 7 237 6 272 5 328 36749 35412 12 230 11 215 9 241 8 267 7 307 35412 34001 12 226 11 207 12 234 8 260 7 297 34001 32556 12 215 10 222 13 234 8 259 6 288 32556 31029 12 210 12 243 12 238 8 260 6 287 31029 29420 13 216 15 250 11 244 7 259 6 289 29420 27733 14 227 16 250 10 246 7 251 6 272 27733 25963 11 238 15 250 10 241 8 236 9 242 25963 24106 4 246 13 250 9 234 11 222 15 240 24106 22177 7 215 11 251 8 240 16 222 18 250 22177 20164 10 205 10 256 8 251 20 229 16 266 20164 18058 9 201 9 262 8 255 19 237 12 286 18058 15871 6 224 8 272 6 258 10 261 5 303 15871 13762 6 249 9 281 6 281 5 305 2 338 13762 11881 4 260 10 285 7 304 6 317 3 343 11881 10217 2 293 12 290 7 302 10 314 5 337 10217 8741 2 337 12 294 9 310 11 316 7 323 8741 7431 6 353 11 299 9 321 12 310 9 307 7431 6268 12 333 9 307 7*326 11 304 10 293 6268 5237 18 327 8 320 4*309 6 295 9 281 5237 4329 20 328 7 336 2 255 1 242 7 268 4329 3534 19 330 8 353 2 106 0 219 6 244 3534 2816 15 331 9*003 2 104 1 152 5 214 2816 2171 12 332 6*025 2 103 1 121 4 182 2171 1639 7*331 5 042 2 099 1 109 4 166 1639 1230 4*327 6 043 2 098 1 113 4 154 1230 955 3 330 5 045 2 099 1 117 3 146 955 796 3 332 5 045 2 097 1 112 3*139 796 716 2 328 5 044 2 094 1*104 1*114 716 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography