DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 02/06 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1017z - - 1350z - - 1616z - - 1914z - - 2207z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.7 - - 62.1 - - 68.1 - - 64.3 - - 54.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -9 - - 218 - - 316 - - 1 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 63 - - 1366 - - 3993 - - 63 - - 63 BL Depth Hcrit 2147 - - 2713 - - 4781 - - 2147 - - 2147 Hcrit BL Top 2163 - - 3466 - - 6093 - - 2163 - - 2163 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 35 - - 2723 - - 1581 - - 4776 - - 152 Hgt.Variab. W* 6 - - 273 - - 442 - - 20 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 14 - - 14 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 7 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 198 - - 181 - - 321 - - 352 - - 026 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -5 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2584 - - -7267 - - -7995 - - -10936 - - -7248 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4747 - - 10734 - - 14089 - - 13100 - - 9412 sfcLCL ODpotential -12427 - - -12533 - - -12159 - - -15721 - - -14024 ODpotential blCL 14590 - - 15999 - - 18252 - - 17884 - - 16187 blCL maxRH 74 - - 66 - - 79 - - 76 - - 86 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 37.7 - - 62.1 - - 68.1 - - 64.3 - - 54.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.0 - - 22.6 - - 13.2 - - 14.2 - - 21.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 37.8 - - 60.3 - - 65.8 - - 64.1 - - 54.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 25.0 - - 22.6 - - 13.2 - - 14.2 - - 21.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -9 - - 218 - - 316 - - 1 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 63 - - 1366 - - 3993 - - 63 - - 63 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 15 - - 3 - - 43 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 75474 8 278 10 268 13 270 8 273 11 247 75474 61634 5 249 5 243 10 216 20 250 16 271 61634 56669 16 269 17 308 9 336 12 262 19 294 56669 51870 20 260 25 278 20 295 20 293 26 291 51870 48645 23 300 31 296 38 313 37 308 37 295 48645 45269 35 314 32 300 44 307 48 310 48 310 45269 44048 36 311 35 307 47 310 51 310 52 313 44048 42925 38 308 37 309 52 308 50 311 52 314 42925 42148 41 309 37 308 53 307 51 312 51 315 42148 41262 43 309 36 308 53 309 53 314 51 315 41262 40245 44 307 36 309 52 311 55 314 56 316 40245 39462 42 301 36 314 52 312 56 311 58 316 39462 38955 41 299 46 319 52 312 55 308 56 314 38955 38560 40 300 54 311 54 309 53 301 54 312 38560 38056 38 306 58 303 56 302 53 296 53 313 38056 37616 44 315 59 300 54 299 54 290 54 310 37616 36766 49 317 58 297 53 295 54 286 58 301 36766 36630 53 315 49 294 53 286 57 287 58 300 36630 36621 55 311 52 294 53 285 61 284 59 295 36621 32542 54 305 51 295 51 289 52 286 48 297 32542 25978 47 291 52 294 51 292 48 287 46 290 25978 25327 42 292 48 291 53 286 46 291 44 290 25327 20984 36 292 41 289 48 282 48 290 39 284 20984 20212 36 285 39 288 41 281 42 295 37 282 20212 19144 34 286 34 287 37 288 37 300 35 277 19144 17826 30 287 31 294 31 293 30 296 29 277 17826 15353 25 287 28 296 29 288 27 290 25 274 15353 13489 21 280 24 284 28 283 25 288 26 276 13489 11423 20 273 20 285 26 277 26 276 26 274 11423 9860 18 275 17 278 23 264 25 267 25 273 9860 9373 17 280 16 270 22 260 25 264 25 276 9373 8892 17 284 16 270 22 262 24 263 23 281 8892 8419 15 286 15 269 20 263 24 265 22 282 8419 7952 14 280 14 268 19 263 23 267 22 283 7952 7491 14 267 13 256 19 261 22 267 18 272 7491 7036 14 266 12 251 20 257 21 260 16 255 7036 6589 13 275 12 264 20 256 19 259 16 252 6589 6148 11 283 11 289 18*259 14 268 14 261 6148 5713 9 307 11 311 7*290 11 283 13 270 5713 5284 9 349 10 337 6 303 9 302 11 281 5284 4860 10 360 10 352 6 311 9 318 10 299 4860 4442 10 007 10 002 6 319 9 328 9 324 4442 4028 7 009 10 008 6 324 9 335 10 346 4028 3620 5 004 10*011 6 327 10 340 11 358 3620 3217 1 061 3*171 6 331 10 343 12 004 3217 2817 6 157 4 182 6 332 10 347 13 007 2817 2554 11 163 4 182 6 334 10 349 12 012 2554 2357 12 173 4 182 5 335 9 350 9 023 2357 2228 11 190 3 182 5 336 8 351 5 029 2228 2163 4*198 3 182 5 337 7*352 2*026 2163 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography