DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 03/28 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1327z - - 1555z - - 1855z - - 2152z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 32.7 - - 40.5 - - 41.4 - - 41.9 - - 36.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 14 - - 194 - - 187 - - 100 - - 16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 4127 - - 3613 - - 2861 - - 708 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 6002 - - 5623 - - 4710 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 7530 - - 7016 - - 6264 - - 4111 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2781 - - 2949 - - 4912 - - 3529 - - 3390 Hgt.Variab. W* 54 - - 388 - - 372 - - 276 - - 94 W* B/S 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 23 - - 26 - - 22 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 187 - - 239 - - 247 - - 244 - - 240 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 14 - - 12 - - 15 - - 5 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - -11 - - -20 - - -10 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1 - - 895 - - 61 - - 320 - - 45 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3556 - - 6636 - - 6955 - - 5944 - - 4066 sfcLCL ODpotential -860 - - -207 - - -1832 - - -1277 - - -982 ODpotential blCL 4416 - - 7737 - - 8848 - - 7541 - - 5093 blCL maxRH 101 - - 86 - - 90 - - 90 - - 97 maxRH CAPE 20 - - 30 - - 50 - - 120 - - 80 CAPE Temp@2m 32.7 - - 40.5 - - 41.4 - - 41.9 - - 36.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.2 - - 23.8 - - 23.2 - - 28.1 - - 31.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 32.5 - - 39.3 - - 40.2 - - 41.0 - - 36.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.8 - - 22.8 - - 22.1 - - 27.4 - - 31.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 14 - - 194 - - 187 - - 100 - - 16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 4127 - - 3613 - - 2861 - - 708 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 103 - - 43 - - 59 - - 58 - - 88 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96770 33 262 36 280 29 279 29 273 33 267 96770 89458 22 274 26 270 33 272 36 275 32 285 89458 83857 13 301 18 266 24 266 25 295 21 289 83857 79191 16 289 14 277 18 268 24 304 17 295 79191 75124 17 290 16 268 19 267 25 276 23 293 75124 71510 14 332 10 275 10 271 16 273 21 288 71510 68226 21 297 13 298 9 281 11 295 14 297 68226 65164 17 276 20 266 21 254 20 264 14 302 65164 62272 14 281 17 257 20 260 19 264 20 285 62272 59443 28 266 17 259 16 275 19 284 19 276 59443 56498 32 257 21 253 23 259 26 274 9 292 56498 53448 32 258 28 257 28 255 31 266 24 296 53448 50551 33 258 35 258 37 256 39 259 35 271 50551 47982 34 255 35 256 36 249 35 250 34 258 47982 45709 36 260 35 260 28 255 29 254 27 257 45709 43658 40 264 39 264 30 273 31 270 25 270 43658 41785 41 263 42 265 41 273 37 277 30 278 41785 40059 42 261 45 264 48 268 44 275 36 274 40059 38459 44 261 47 262 51 264 51 269 40 268 38459 36973 45 260 49 259 53 263 54 264 43 262 36973 35592 47 258 48 257 54 262 55 260 46 258 35592 34286 47 257 44 258 53 261 54 261 48 257 34286 32993 48 259 43 264 50 259 57 265 49 257 32993 31684 48 261 48 264 46 256 61 268 47 258 31684 30360 49 261 50 260 42 251 60 267 44 259 30360 29003 48 260 50 259 42 249 52 262 44 259 29003 27598 48 260 48 261 44 244 42 256 45 255 27598 26145 46 258 46 262 43 240 36 254 42 253 26145 24642 43 254 43 259 40 241 32 253 39 254 24642 23086 40 250 41 254 36 244 29 247 37 253 23086 21481 39 249 38 250 33 247 29 244 33 250 21481 19820 39 249 35 246 31 250 29 248 27 245 19820 18102 40 247 33 239 30 251 28 255 23 244 18102 16358 39 240 30 233 29 252 25 258 24 246 16358 14678 36 233 30 236 28 250 23 247 28 247 14678 13144 34 238 33 240 29 245 24 235 30 249 13144 11772 34 247 35 244 30 242 26 231 30 251 11772 10545 31 249 34 247 31 243 29 234 29 252 10545 9445 27 252 32 246 32 245 32 239 28 252 9445 8459 24 255 31 245 31 247 32 243 27 252 8459 7578 21 255 30*243 30*247 31 244 25 250 7578 6792 19 252 28*241 29*247 30*244 24 249 6792 6092 18 246 27 240 28 247 28*244 23 248 6092 5459 16 238 24 239 27 247 26 244 21 247 5459 4895 15 229 23 238 26 247 23 244 18 246 4895 4420 12 219 21 238 25 247 21 243 15*244 4420 4053 10 205 20 237 24 247 20 243 12*241 4053 3800 8 192 19 237 22 247 18 243 11 240 3800 3645 8*188 17 238 21 247 17 242 10 239 3645 3556 6*187 14 237 16 247 13 242 8 238 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography