DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 05/08 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 37.5 - - 48.4 - - 57.4 - - 57.8 - - 52.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 64 - - 390 - - 522 - - 292 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 998 - - 3199 - - 5767 - - 5024 - - 154 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 5559 - - 7682 - - 6862 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 4401 - - 6602 - - 9170 - - 8427 - - 3557 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1345 - - 1056 - - 1106 - - 1078 - - 4167 Hgt.Variab. W* 168 - - 446 - - 597 - - 470 - - 16 W* B/S 13 - - 10 - - 7 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 8 - - 16 - - 18 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 268 - - 019 - - 035 - - 034 - - 036 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 4 - - 7 - - 7 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -153 - - -1902 - - -1718 - - -2070 - - -5092 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4554 - - 8504 - - 10889 - - 10497 - - 8650 sfcLCL ODpotential -8476 - - -9658 - - -8031 - - -8220 - - -11258 ODpotential blCL 12877 - - 16260 - - 17201 - - 16647 - - 14815 blCL maxRH 81 - - 57 - - 57 - - 56 - - 70 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 37.5 - - 48.4 - - 57.4 - - 57.8 - - 52.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.4 - - 23.8 - - 21.9 - - 24.2 - - 26.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 36.7 - - 46.1 - - 54.5 - - 55.9 - - 52.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.7 - - 23.2 - - 21.5 - - 23.8 - - 26.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 64 - - 390 - - 522 - - 292 - - -17 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 998 - - 3199 - - 5767 - - 5024 - - 154 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 22 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98137 14 357 9 047 9 338 14 356 18 019 98137 90776 13 039 6 020 8 031 13 356 12 018 90776 85136 10 059 6 064 10 053 8 016 13 007 85136 80444 8 094 4 065 9 030 11 042 16 045 80444 76393 11 108 5 101 3 011 11 031 15 064 76393 72792 12 103 6 116 2 140 4 040 7 079 72792 69513 10 088 4 096 3 138 2 033 4 097 69513 66490 9 081 5 085 4 085 2 358 2 080 66490 63687 7 063 5 058 7 037 7 029 7 024 63687 60967 4 031 5 051 6 345 11 359 11 357 60967 58125 12 358 14 033 8 013 12 348 18 356 58125 55175 21 348 21 011 17 012 20 006 23 005 55175 52353 25 355 26 001 25 006 26 008 25 005 52353 49804 25 001 31 357 29 005 27 004 27 359 49804 47522 28 008 33 357 29 006 26 004 28 005 47522 45466 33 014 31 001 30 007 29 006 31 006 45466 43603 41 014 34 011 33 010 34 007 31 019 43603 41902 48 001 41 013 37 020 35 015 32 029 41902 40340 51 004 47 015 36 024 29 020 35 033 40340 38891 57 011 46 016 26 053 16 021 34 012 38891 37536 58 015 41 021 24 066 12 024 27 344 37536 36234 58 015 32 030 21 054 14 017 22 352 36234 34915 56 012 20 050 19 031 20 017 19 011 34915 33554 53 013 16 057 17 017 33 027 20 020 33554 32152 53 014 19 033 18 011 47 026 28 032 32152 30701 58 015 32 020 29 019 48 026 36 040 30701 29193 63 012 49 015 39 023 49 030 38 040 29193 27627 59 007 57 013 46 024 47 032 38 044 27627 26001 55 007 57 013 51 024 45 030 39 046 26001 24318 54 010 56 015 54 025 45 029 40 046 24318 22582 53 014 55 016 54 027 45 032 43 046 22582 20789 53 017 53 016 53 029 45 036 46 045 20789 18932 52 015 53 017 52 031 46 039 47 046 18932 17047 53 014 53 021 51 035 46 042 44 050 17047 15236 54 018 53 025 50 040 42 046 38 055 15236 13593 54 022 50 033 44 046 34 051 31 062 13593 12133 49 025 48 041 35 055 26 059 27 068 12133 10834 41 028 43 046 26 061 23 066 27 071 10834 9675 34 031 36 050 18*052 19 059 27 070 9675 8641 28 033 29 055 17*045 18*042 26 066 8641 7721 21 036 22 058 17 042 18*039 24 060 7721 6906 16 041 13*046 17 038 18 037 21 054 6906 6180 13 045 10*031 17 035 19 035 19 049 6180 5525 10 039 9 022 17 033 19 033 19 046 5525 4941 5 024 9 019 17 031 19 032 19 044 4941 4450 2*285 8 016 17 029 18 031 18 042 4450 4071 3*268 8 014 16 027 18 030 17 040 4071 3809 2 267 8 014 16 027 17 030 15 038 3809 3649 2 268 7 013 15 027 16 029 13*037 3649 3557 2 270 7 013 13 026 14 029 9*036 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography