AVERAGE BASED ON 30 DAYS DrJack's BLIP for: OCT 2002 PANOCHE 2573ft pt30752@36.268,-120.696 (at ridge) ---------------------------- VALIDATION TIME ---------------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Temp@2m 47.5 50.4 57.0 62.9 66.5 69.8 71.3 72.5 72.3 70.5 68.2 63.0 59.2 Temp@2m Temp@Bot 47.8 50.2 56.3 61.5 64.6 67.6 69.1 70.5 70.8 69.6 68.0 63.2 59.3 Temp@Bot Sfc.Heating -7 13 82 194 295 366 355 321 234 125 19 -10 -8 Sfc.Heating BLDepth 25 51 305 1138 2008 2806 3508 4015 3824 3289 1417 115 56 BLDepth Hcrit 2143 2143 2152 2570 3310 3973 4499 4846 4532 3800 2231 2143 2143 Hcrit BLTop 2168 2194 2448 3280 4151 4948 5650 6158 5967 5432 3560 2258 2199 BLTop Hgt.Variab. 158 300 1251 1971 2359 2527 2405 2477 2456 2481 3213 2524 1460 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 29 110 238 336 408 434 439 386 293 95 8 8 W* B/S 0 2 5 10 13 15 15 16 12 7 2 0 0 B/S BLWind 2.5 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.7 3.9 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.8 8.0 5.8 5.4 BLWind Direction 222 245 303 329 319 337 329 326 324 321 316 303 287 Direction Max.Converg -4 -3 -1 2 6 8 11 13 14 11 7 0 -1 Max.Converg maxRH 60 57 54 48 50 47 46 47 43 43 40 41 47 maxRH CLOUDpotent -10705 -10784 -10399 -9836 -8259 -7844 -7760 -7139 -8027 -8383 -10001 -10778 -10572 CLOUDpotent sfcLCL 12875 12979 12849 13118 12411 12795 13413 13299 13996 13816 13563 13038 12772 sfcLCL ODpotential -10709 -10773 -10476 -10158 -8784 -8646 -8541 -7857 -8695 -8826 -10135 -10786 -10576 ODpotential blCL 12879 12969 12926 13440 12937 13596 14193 14017 14663 14260 13697 13046 12776 blCL PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [deg] ---------------------------- VALIDATION TIME ---------------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 28168 25 308 23 308 22 303 22 309 20 317 20 316 20 311 19 315 20 313 21 315 20 308 18 310 21 313 28168 25319 22 312 21 312 19 306 20 311 20 317 18 316 18 315 18 318 18 316 19 318 18 314 16 318 19 320 25319 23054 20 316 19 316 17 310 18 311 18 317 16 316 17 314 16 323 16 322 17 321 17 320 15 323 18 325 23054 21118 18 321 17 320 16 315 16 315 17 322 14 324 14 318 13 327 14 324 15 321 15 320 13 324 16 331 21118 19264 17 324 15 323 14 319 14 322 15 327 12 326 12 319 12 328 12 329 13 325 12 323 11 328 14 335 19264 17342 15 328 14 328 13 327 12 331 12 331 9 327 11 322 10 329 10 333 11 327 9 329 9 340 11 338 17342 15505 13 330 13 331 12 328 11 335 10 332 8 330 9 326 9 334 9 337 9 333 9 339 9 342 9 339 15505 13825 12 329 12 329 10 327 9 332 9 331 7 332 8 329 8 337 8 338 8 336 9 340 8 347 9 344 13825 12509 11 327 11 326 10 322 8 328 8 330 6 332 8 330 7 337 7 336 8 337 10 342 9 349 8 348 12509 11537 10 330 10 327 9 322 7 326 7 331 6 334 7 335 6 339 7 340 6 338 9 344 7 351 7 350 11537 10705 9 333 9 331 8 326 7 330 6 330 5 336 6 341 5 343 6 344 6 340 8 346 7 352 7 352 10705 10014 9 335 8 335 7 328 6 330 6 329 5 332 5 341 5 351 5 349 5 344 7 348 6 351 6 352 10014 9450 8 336 8 340 7 332 6 331 5 331 4 330 5 339 4 354 5 353 5 348 7 351 6 352 6 352 9450 8962 8 338 8 341 7 336 6 333 4 331 4 330 5 341 4 357 5 357 5 351 7 352 5 355 6 354 8962 8483 8 339 8 342 6 340 6 334 4 332 4 335 5 340 4 357 5 357 5 351 6 353 6 357 6 356 8483 8010 8 340 8 343 6 342 6 334 3 336 4 338 5 340 5 356 5 355 5 351 6 352 6 357 6 357 8010 7544 7 341 7 345 6 344 6 335 3 339 3 340 5 338 5 352 5 354 6 349 7 351 6 358 6 358 7544 7085 7 343 7 347 6 346 5 337 3 342 3 343 5 335 5 347 6 352 6 347 7 348 6 357 7 357 7085 6632 7 345 7 350 6 348 5 339 3 343 3 346 5 331 5 343 6 349 7 344 7 347 7 355 7 357 6632 6185 7 348 6 353 6 350 6 340 3 340 3 349 5 328 5 340 6 346 7 342 7 347 7 354 8 357 6185 5744 7 349 6 355 6 353 5 342 3 338 3 347 5 330 5 339 6 342 7 341 7 346 8 353 8 356 5744 5309 7 350 6 357 5 355 5 343 3 333 2 344 5 330 5 334 6 336 7 337 7 344 8 353 9 357 5309 4880 7 351 6 358 5 357 5 344 3 330 2 344 5 330 5 331 6 331 6 333 7 341 8 352 9 356 4880 4457 6 353 6 359 5 358 5 348 2 330 3 346 5 329 6 330 6 329 6 331 7 337 8 350 9 356 4457 4039 6 355 6 358 5 359 4 349 3 333 3 343 5 329 6 330 7 329 7 328 7 334 8 346 9 354 4039 3626 6 358 6 357 5 356 4 351 3 329 4 341 5 330 6 330 7 328 8 326 7 327 8 341 9 348 3626 3216 6 359 6 355 5 352 4 348 4 324 4 338 5 333 6 332 7 328 8 324 9 320 8 328 9 335 3216 2811 7 352 6 348 5 339 4 337 4 320 4 341 6 336 6 334 7 329 8 325 9 318 10 315 10 314 2811 2547 6 340 6 337 5 326 3 327 4 320 4 341 6 336 6 334 7 329 8 326 9 318 10 312 10 302 2547 2353 4 319 4 323 3 313 3 324 4 322 4 342 5 337 6 335 7 330 7 325 8 319 8 312 9 297 2353 2224 3 267 2 263 2 294 3 324 3 322 4 342 5 338 6 335 6 330 7 326 7 319 7 311 7 293 2224 2159 2 218 2 238 2 291 2 324 3 322 4 345 5 339 5 336 6 331 6 326 6 320 5 305 5 287 2159 PROFILES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY [%] ---------------------------- VALIDATION TIME ---------------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 28168 30 31 32 31 29 29 29 25 23 24 24 24 24 28168 25319 29 30 32 32 26 30 30 28 26 25 25 26 25 25319 23054 26 28 29 27 23 26 28 28 28 25 25 25 25 23054 21118 27 29 28 24 21 22 25 27 29 27 26 26 26 21118 19264 30 32 29 24 21 20 23 24 24 24 25 25 25 19264 17342 27 29 26 23 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 24 24 17342 15505 26 26 24 21 20 20 21 22 21 22 22 22 23 15505 13825 24 24 24 21 19 19 19 21 19 20 21 21 21 13825 12509 24 23 22 21 18 20 19 20 19 20 20 20 20 12509 11537 23 23 22 21 19 20 19 20 20 20 20 21 20 11537 10705 24 24 22 22 21 20 20 21 20 20 21 21 21 10705 10014 24 25 23 24 22 21 21 22 21 21 21 21 21 10014 9450 24 26 24 24 23 22 22 22 22 21 21 22 22 9450 8962 25 26 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 22 21 22 22 8962 8483 25 26 25 24 23 23 24 24 23 22 22 22 22 8483 8010 25 26 25 24 24 24 25 25 24 23 23 23 22 8010 7544 25 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 25 25 24 24 23 7544 7085 26 26 25 24 25 25 26 28 26 26 26 25 24 7085 6632 26 25 25 24 25 26 28 30 27 27 28 27 26 6632 6185 27 26 26 25 26 27 29 31 29 29 29 29 27 6185 5744 27 26 27 25 28 29 31 33 31 31 30 31 29 5744 5309 28 27 28 27 29 30 33 36 32 33 32 32 31 5309 4880 29 28 29 29 32 33 37 40 36 35 33 33 32 4880 4457 30 30 31 31 36 38 40 42 37 37 35 34 33 4457 4039 32 32 33 33 39 42 41 41 37 37 35 35 34 4039 3626 34 34 35 37 44 44 40 39 36 37 36 35 34 3626 3216 37 37 38 41 47 42 38 37 34 36 37 36 35 3216 2811 40 41 42 45 46 40 36 34 32 34 36 40 39 2811 2547 44 46 47 45 44 38 35 33 31 33 35 42 45 2547 2353 52 51 50 45 43 37 34 32 30 32 34 41 47 2353 2224 60 57 53 44 42 36 33 31 29 31 33 40 47 2224 2159 72 65 53 42 40 34 31 29 28 30 33 41 48 2159 PARAMETER KEY: (the parameters are described more fully at http://www.dr-jack.net/BLIPMAP/index.html) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 5m AGL (bottom grid point) [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BLDepth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BLTop = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab. = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4 & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BLWind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [deg] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blLCL) [ft] blLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography