AVERAGE BASED ON 31 DAYS DrJack's BLIP for: DEC 2002 HOLLISTER 2573ft pt30752@36.268,-120.696 (at ridge) ---------------------------- VALIDATION TIME ---------------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Temp@2m 44.1 44.3 46.2 49.3 52.3 54.0 54.7 39.3 55.3 53.6 51.6 49.7 48.9 Temp@2m Temp@Bot 44.2 44.5 46.3 49.1 51.9 53.5 54.2 55.3 55.1 53.7 51.8 49.9 49.1 Temp@Bot Sfc.Heating -19 -21 -7 20 55 70 61 53 21 -10 -15 -14 -14 Sfc.Heating BLDepth 19 38 38 268 716 1052 1431 1628 1323 586 18 16 16 BLDepth Hcrit 978 978 978 1011 1119 1364 1462 1576 1379 978 978 978 978 Hcrit BLTop 997 1016 1016 1246 1694 2030 2409 2606 2301 1564 996 994 994 BLTop Hgt.Variab. 1260 1372 1528 2113 2427 2857 2936 3296 3504 3681 3376 2602 2237 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 5 13 55 115 141 148 144 101 31 0 0 0 W* B/S 0 0 0 1 3 4 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 B/S BLWind 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.1 3.8 3.0 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.0 BLWind Direction 147 140 139 148 159 164 187 193 194 189 171 154 150 Direction Max.Converg -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 4 4 2 1 0 0 -1 Max.Converg maxRH 80 79 76 75 72 69 72 69 67 66 65 68 71 maxRH CLOUDpotent -5637 -5966 -6006 -5279 -5011 -4452 -3697 -3549 -3913 -4439 -4947 -4736 -4726 CLOUDpotent sfcLCL 6636 6984 7024 6527 6707 6484 6108 6156 6215 6005 5945 5732 5722 sfcLCL ODpotential -5639 -5968 -6008 -5329 -5174 -4886 -4071 -4060 -4343 -4501 -4948 -4736 -4726 ODpotential blCL 6638 6986 7027 6577 6870 6918 6482 6668 6646 6067 5946 5732 5722 blCL PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [deg] ---------------------------- VALIDATION TIME ---------------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 32762 54 286 52 285 52 285 54 288 51 285 52 284 55 284 53 286 53 285 53 285 53 285 54 285 54 284 32762 30667 50 285 47 284 48 283 51 286 47 283 47 283 50 283 47 284 47 284 48 284 48 284 49 284 48 283 30667 28865 48 284 45 282 45 281 48 284 44 281 44 280 47 282 45 282 45 282 45 282 45 283 46 283 45 283 28865 27238 45 281 43 281 43 280 45 283 42 280 42 279 44 281 42 281 42 279 42 280 43 281 43 282 43 283 27238 25345 42 280 41 280 41 279 43 283 40 279 39 278 41 281 39 281 39 280 41 281 40 281 42 282 41 283 25345 23546 39 280 39 280 39 278 39 283 36 278 36 277 39 280 37 280 37 279 37 282 36 283 38 282 39 282 23546 21672 35 279 36 278 36 277 36 283 34 278 33 277 35 280 35 279 34 280 35 281 35 284 36 283 36 283 21672 20017 32 279 33 277 33 275 33 281 31 277 30 276 32 279 32 280 32 280 31 281 32 282 33 283 33 283 20017 18371 28 277 30 276 30 273 30 278 28 275 28 273 28 277 29 279 29 278 29 279 30 280 30 281 30 282 18371 16740 26 273 28 272 28 270 27 276 26 272 26 271 26 275 26 278 25 276 25 276 27 279 26 277 26 278 16740 15132 24 270 26 269 26 269 24 272 22 270 23 269 24 273 24 277 23 272 22 272 23 275 24 274 23 274 15132 13503 22 271 23 271 24 270 22 269 21 267 21 265 22 271 22 272 21 269 21 270 21 273 21 272 21 272 13503 12139 21 270 21 270 22 271 20 269 19 266 19 263 20 266 20 266 20 264 20 264 20 267 19 270 19 269 12139 10796 19 266 19 267 19 268 18 266 17 265 17 261 18 262 18 262 18 259 19 260 19 263 18 267 17 267 10796 9496 16 263 17 264 17 264 16 263 16 262 15 259 16 257 16 259 16 255 17 257 17 261 17 263 15 264 9496 8156 15 260 15 262 15 262 15 259 15 258 14 253 15 253 15 256 14 251 15 255 16 258 15 260 14 262 8156 6885 13 253 13 256 14 257 13 254 13 252 13 245 13 244 13 247 13 243 14 246 14 253 14 256 13 259 6885 6109 12 249 12 252 13 250 12 249 12 245 13 239 13 240 13 241 13 238 13 242 14 248 13 253 12 257 6109 5607 12 247 11 248 12 244 12 244 12 240 12 235 13 237 12 237 12 235 13 239 13 245 12 251 11 254 5607 5145 12 245 11 244 12 240 12 241 12 236 12 231 12 234 12 234 12 232 13 235 13 241 12 248 11 252 5145 4691 12 241 11 240 11 236 11 238 12 233 12 227 12 231 12 231 11 230 12 232 12 237 11 245 10 250 4691 4243 12 238 11 236 11 232 11 235 11 229 12 224 12 228 11 228 11 226 11 228 11 233 11 241 10 247 4243 3800 11 234 10 232 11 226 10 231 11 226 12 220 12 223 11 223 11 222 11 225 11 228 10 236 9 242 3800 3364 11 228 10 227 10 220 10 224 11 220 11 214 12 217 11 217 11 217 10 222 10 224 9 230 8 236 3364 2933 11 222 10 219 10 211 10 215 10 212 11 207 11 210 10 211 10 212 10 217 10 219 9 222 8 227 2933 2508 10 214 9 208 10 201 9 202 9 200 10 194 11 203 9 206 9 207 9 212 9 210 8 212 7 216 2508 2088 10 203 9 192 9 186 9 187 9 185 10 183 11 195 9 200 8 201 8 205 8 199 8 200 7 202 2088 1673 9 187 8 171 9 167 9 170 10 172 10 173 10 186 8 193 7 194 7 196 7 188 7 186 7 185 1673 1400 9 169 8 153 9 153 10 157 9 164 9 165 8 181 6 189 6 191 5 189 6 181 6 174 6 171 1400 1197 9 153 9 144 9 142 9 151 8 158 7 163 7 181 5 187 5 191 4 185 5 176 5 162 6 159 1197 1062 8 145 8 139 8 139 7 150 7 157 6 163 6 180 4 187 4 190 3 185 4 171 4 154 5 149 1062 994 5 147 5 140 6 139 6 148 5 156 5 159 4 180 3 186 3 188 2 185 3 169 3 154 4 150 994 PROFILES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY [%] ---------------------------- VALIDATION TIME ---------------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 32762 20 17 19 21 21 21 20 20 23 23 22 20 20 32762 30667 28 27 28 29 29 29 29 28 28 30 30 29 29 30667 28865 30 30 32 34 35 35 34 33 34 33 32 31 32 28865 27238 37 36 36 37 39 40 40 40 40 40 36 34 34 27238 25345 42 41 41 41 43 44 41 42 44 42 39 39 37 25345 23546 42 42 44 41 43 45 44 43 45 42 41 41 41 23546 21672 41 45 44 42 41 45 46 44 45 44 43 42 43 21672 20017 45 47 48 45 43 43 46 45 46 45 43 44 44 20017 18371 48 49 50 47 46 47 45 49 49 47 45 45 46 18371 16740 51 52 53 49 47 48 48 51 51 48 47 47 45 16740 15132 52 55 54 51 50 50 50 50 52 49 47 47 45 15132 13503 53 57 56 52 52 53 52 52 53 53 49 49 47 13503 12139 55 58 57 52 52 54 53 52 53 54 51 49 49 12139 10796 56 58 58 51 52 51 53 53 53 53 53 50 51 10796 9496 55 56 56 49 51 50 51 53 52 54 53 50 51 9496 8156 55 55 56 51 51 50 50 52 53 53 54 51 52 8156 6885 55 55 55 54 54 51 52 55 55 57 57 53 54 6885 6109 58 57 57 56 54 54 54 57 57 57 58 56 57 6109 5607 58 57 57 58 56 55 57 58 58 57 58 58 59 5607 5145 59 58 59 59 57 57 59 60 58 58 59 59 61 5145 4691 60 60 60 61 59 58 62 61 59 60 61 61 63 4691 4243 62 61 61 63 61 60 66 63 62 62 62 63 65 4243 3800 63 61 62 64 62 62 68 66 64 64 64 64 66 3800 3364 63 62 62 65 63 63 69 67 66 66 65 65 67 3364 2933 64 63 63 66 64 64 70 67 66 66 66 66 68 2933 2508 65 64 63 67 65 65 69 66 65 65 66 65 68 2508 2088 66 65 64 68 67 65 68 64 64 64 65 65 67 2088 1673 68 67 67 69 68 65 67 63 62 63 64 65 67 1673 1400 70 71 70 72 68 65 66 61 61 63 64 65 68 1400 1197 74 75 74 74 68 64 64 60 60 62 64 66 69 1197 1062 80 79 76 73 67 63 63 60 60 63 65 68 71 1062 994 84 83 77 73 67 63 63 60 60 64 68 73 76 994 PARAMETER KEY: (the parameters are described more fully at http://www.dr-jack.net/BLIPMAP/index.html) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 5m AGL (bottom grid point) [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BLDepth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BLTop = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab. = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4 & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BLWind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [deg] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blLCL) [ft] blLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography