DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on FRI Oct 10 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7236,9659 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7518 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1304 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 6 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 737 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +7124 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 32% PM= 33% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2650 ft LCL= 12147 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 736 ft LCL= 12352 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 9214,12750 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10316 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -2859 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7733,8825 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7012 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 10/10:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 7222, 9500 Hcrit= 7390 HgtVar=1105 B/S= 5 W*= 735 MAPS WxC Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 6625, 8944 Hcrit= 6873 HgtVar=1398 B/S= 5 W*= 690 MAPS AVG Tmax=69.5> TI=-4,0@ 6944, 9222 Hcrit= 7133 HgtVar=1251 B/S= 5 W*= 713 ETA NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 7250, 9818 Hcrit= 7647 HgtVar=1503 B/S= 7 W*= 740 ETA WxC Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 6250, 9333 Hcrit= 7180 HgtVar=1628 B/S= 7 W*= 694 ETA AVG Tmax=69.5> TI=-4,0@ 6700, 9590 Hcrit= 7425 HgtVar=1552 B/S= 7 W*= 717 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 7222, 9500 Hcrit= 7390 HgtVar=1105 B/S= 5 W*= 735 MAPSanl:10/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: +6730 (+21.0F) MAPS10h:10/11:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 7250, 9818 Hcrit= 7647 HgtVar=1503 B/S= 7 W*= 740 ETAanal:10/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: +7518 (+20.1F) ETA12hr:10/11:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 9214,12750 Hcrit=10316 HgtVar=3450 B/S= 7 W*= 945 ETA24hr:10/11:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: -2859 (-4.6F) ETA36hr:10/12:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 7733, 8825 Hcrit= 7012 HgtVar= 975 B/S=10 W*= 831 ETA48hr:10/12:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 10-Oct-2008 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 70.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 70.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 70.9 F Surface elev Temp: 52.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 53.5 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 78 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 52.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 53.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11099 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 25 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9497 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 21.1 91 | 6.6 15500 20.0 90 | 8.3 15000 19.0 315 72 89 | 9.9 14500 17.3 87 | 10.9 14000 15.6 319 69 86 | 11.9 13500 14.0 84 | 12.9 13000 12.3 323 65 82 | 13.9 12500 10.7 81 | 14.9 12000 9.0 325 57 79 | 15.9 11500 7.3 325 48 77 | 16.9 11000 5.5 75 | 17.8 o 10500 3.6 325 41 74 | 18.6 o 10000 1.7 331 38 72 | 19.4 *o 9500 0.0 328 36 70 | 20.3 o 9000 -0.9 69 | 22.1 o* 8500 -1.8 68 | 23.9 o* 8000 -2.6 67 | 25.7 o * 7500 -3.5 66 | 27.5 o * 7000 -4.4 66 | 29.3 o * 6500 -5.2 337 26 65 | 31.1 o * 6000 -6.0 64 | 33.0 o * 5500 -6.7 345 25 63 | 34.9 o * 5000 -7.7 348 25 62 | 36.6 o * 4500 -8.9 350 27 61 | 38.2 o * 4000 -9.6 351 27 60 | 40.1 o * 3500 -10.1 352 26 60 | 42.3 o * 3000 -10.7 352 23 59 | 44.4 o * 2500 -11.9 349 20 58 | 45.8 o * 2000 -12.9 344 20 57 | 47.5 o * 1500 -14.1 338 22 56 | 49.0 . o * 1000 -15.0 332 24 55 | 50.7 . o * 500 -15.5 332 18 54 ! 52.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 9497 32 -2650 12147 20659 0 20 -4353 13850 20659 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 11-Oct-2008 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 70.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 70.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 70.8 F Surface elev Temp: 65.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.6 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 78 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 65.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11239 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 19 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 28 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13088 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.3 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 3.6 74 |-10.9 15500 2.9 011 38 73 | -8.8 15000 2.3 72 | -6.8 14500 1.7 72 | -4.7 14000 1.1 71 | -2.6 13500 0.5 71 | -0.6 13000 -0.1 010 31 70 | 1.5 12500 -1.5 68 | 2.7 12000 -3.2 67 | 3.7 11500 -5.0 011 28 65 | 4.6 11000 -5.0 65 | 7.2 10500 -5.1 65 | 9.9 * 10000 -5.1 022 28 65 | 12.5 o * 9500 -5.1 65 | 15.2 o * 9000 -5.1 65 | 17.8 o * 8500 -5.1 65 | 20.5 o * 8000 -5.2 65 | 23.2 o * 7500 -5.2 65 | 25.8 o * 7000 -5.2 65 | 28.5 o * 6500 -5.2 65 | 31.1 o * 6000 -5.2 65 | 33.8 o * 5500 -5.2 020 29 65 | 36.5 . o * 5000 -5.3 018 29 65 | 39.1 . o * 4500 -5.3 016 28 65 | 41.7 . o * 4000 -5.3 014 28 65 | 44.4 . o * 3500 -5.2 012 28 65 | 47.1 . o * 3000 -5.2 011 28 65 | 49.9 . o * 2500 -5.2 009 28 65 | 52.5 . o * 2000 -5.1 007 28 65 | 55.3 . o * 1500 -5.1 006 27 65 | 57.9 . o * 1000 -5.1 004 27 65 | 60.6 . o * 500 -5.0 001 25 65 ! 63.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@13088 40 1723 11365 12321 0 33 736 12352 12656 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html