DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6575,7856 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5995 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1631 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 17 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 691 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2861 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= 13% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2652 ft LCL= 10447 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -12798 ft LCL= 13822 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 2625,4277 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2292 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -2219 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1900,3192 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1750 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 7000, 7796 Hcrit= 6174 HgtVar=1787 B/S=21 W*= 813 MAPS WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 7238, 7953 Hcrit= 6320 HgtVar=2047 B/S=21 W*= 831 MAPS AVG Tmax=98.5> TI=-4,0@ 7119, 7875 Hcrit= 6248 HgtVar=1916 B/S=21 W*= 822 ETA NWS Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 6150, 7916 Hcrit= 5817 HgtVar=1476 B/S=13 W*= 570 ETA WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 6636, 8307 Hcrit= 6206 HgtVar=1443 B/S=14 W*= 608 ETA AVG Tmax=98.5> TI=-4,0@ 6400, 8115 Hcrit= 6017 HgtVar=1456 B/S=13 W*= 590 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 7000, 7796 Hcrit= 6174 HgtVar=1787 B/S=21 W*= 813 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z NO MAPSpm+NWStmax TI - bad raob file size RAOB/tmp.auto.tip_williams.raob.41 ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 6150, 7916 Hcrit= 5817 HgtVar=1476 B/S=13 W*= 570 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 98 > Change@TI=+4: -2861 (-9.1F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 2625, 4277 Hcrit= 2292 HgtVar=2285 B/S=14 W*= 309 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 98 > Change@TI=+4: -2219 (-7.3F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 1900, 3192 Hcrit= 1750 HgtVar=1683 B/S=28 W*= 315 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 98.0 F Forecast max VirtT:100.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT:100.6 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17467 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7795 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 13.6 112 | 29.0 15500 12.7 111 | 30.8 15000 11.9 110 | 32.6 14500 11.0 248 21 109 | 34.4 14000 10.2 108 | 36.3 13500 9.4 107 | 38.1 13000 8.6 107 | 40.0 12500 7.6 251 16 106 | 41.7 12000 6.5 105 | 43.3 11500 5.6 255 15 104 | 45.0 11000 5.4 253 15 103 | 47.5 o 10500 5.4 252 15 103 | 50.1 o 10000 5.0 247 16 103 | 52.5 * o 9500 3.8 242 17 102 | 53.9 * o 9000 2.4 234 18 100 | 55.2 * o 8500 2.2 225 17 100 | 57.6 * o 8000 1.3 210 14 99 | 59.4 *o 7500 -1.9 194 13 96 | 58.9 o * 7000 -4.0 179 12 94 | 59.5 o * 6500 -5.1 178 14 93 | 61.1 o * 6000 -6.9 175 15 91 | 61.9 o * 5500 -14.5 182 9 83 | 57.0 o * 5000 -17.3 81 | 56.8 o * 4500 -20.2 78 | 56.7 o * 4000 -23.0 75 | 56.5 o * 3500 -25.8 72 | 56.4 o * 3000 -28.6 69 | 56.3 o * 2500 -31.4 67 | 56.1 o * 2000 -34.2 64 | 56.0 o * 1500 -37.0 61 | 55.8 o * 1000 -39.8 58 | 55.7 o * 500 -42.7 55 ! 55.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 7795 73 -2652 10447 14334 0 51 -3722 11517 14334 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using ETA12hr+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-SEP-2010 00 UTC TI report from MYV ETA12hr upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 98.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 99.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 99.6 F Raob est. max temp:100.1 F Surface elev Temp: 95.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 97.0 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 292 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 95.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 97.0 F Lifted Index @700mb: 4.8 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 13499 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 12886 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 18049 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 13200 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1024 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 20.6 119 | 35.2 15500 19.7 118 | 37.0 15000 18.8 117 | 38.7 14500 17.8 353 3 116 | 40.5 14000 16.8 115 | 42.1 13500 15.8 114 | 43.8 13000 14.8 113 | 45.5 12500 13.8 057 4 112 | 47.2 o 12000 12.9 111 | 48.8 o 11500 11.9 110 | 50.5 o 11000 10.9 109 | 52.2 o 10500 9.9 072 6 108 | 53.9 o 10000 9.2 107 | 55.8 * o 9500 8.4 106 | 57.8 * o 9000 7.7 106 | 59.7 * o 8500 7.0 068 7 105 | 61.7 * o 8000 6.3 104 | 63.7 * o 7500 5.6 104 | 65.7 * o 7000 5.0 103 | 67.7 * o 6500 4.4 039 6 102 | 69.8 * o 6000 4.1 102 | 72.1 * o 5500 3.7 102 | 74.4 * o 5000 3.4 353 5 101 | 76.8 * o 4500 3.2 101 | 79.2 * o 4000 3.0 101 | 81.7 * o 3500 2.8 332 6 101 | 84.2 * o 3000 2.6 101 | 86.7 * o 2500 2.4 100 | 89.1 * o 2000 2.2 100 | 91.6 *o 1500 1.4 312 6 99 | 93.5 *o 1000 -0.1 98 | 94.7 o 500 -1.5 96 ! 95.9 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 1024 13 -12514 13538 19561 0 13 -12798 13822 19561 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html