DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4284,5755 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4247 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 981 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 13 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 595 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +64 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 100% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1408 ft LCL= 6746 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1432 ft LCL= 7550 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 1304,2555 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1219 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -1040 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 1431,2653 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1328 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KRBL 031129Z 0312/0412 35006KT P6SM FEW250 FM040000 01005KT P6SM SCT250 FM040300 VRB05KT P6SM SCT250 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 6350, 8142 Hcrit= 6481 HgtVar=1130 B/S=10 W*= 840 MAPS WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 7166, 8941 Hcrit= 7198 HgtVar= 767 B/S=10 W*= 908 MAPS AVG Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 6769, 8647 Hcrit= 6929 HgtVar= 777 B/S=11 W*= 879 ETA NWS Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 2218, 3368 Hcrit= 2014 HgtVar= 832 B/S=16 W*= 351 ETA WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 2823, 3800 Hcrit= 2458 HgtVar= 800 B/S=18 W*= 401 ETA AVG Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 2529, 3600 Hcrit= 2252 HgtVar= 800 B/S=17 W*= 377 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 6350, 8142 Hcrit= 6481 HgtVar=1130 B/S=10 W*= 840 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 61 > Change@TI=+4: +1076 (+3.8F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 2218, 3368 Hcrit= 2014 HgtVar= 832 B/S=16 W*= 351 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 61 > Change@TI=+4: -948 (-5.9F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 1304, 2555 Hcrit= 1219 HgtVar=1903 B/S=10 W*= 279 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 61 > Change@TI=+4: -1040 (-5.3F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 1431, 2653 Hcrit= 1328 HgtVar=1847 B/S= 9 W*= 289 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 61.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 62.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 62.1 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13347 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 15 kt Convection overcast height: 6991 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8154 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 15.3 040 23 76 | -7.8 15500 14.7 76 | -5.7 15000 14.1 75 | -3.6 14500 13.5 75 | -1.5 14000 12.9 74 | 0.6 13500 12.3 053 31 73 | 2.7 13000 11.6 73 | 4.6 12500 10.9 72 | 6.6 12000 10.2 71 | 8.5 11500 9.4 054 32 70 | 10.5 o 11000 8.6 70 | 12.3 o. 10500 7.6 69 | 14.0 o 10000 6.7 052 29 68 | 15.8 * o. 9500 5.5 051 27 66 | 17.2 * o 9000 2.2 053 26 63 | 16.6 * o 8500 0.5 052 24 61 | 17.5 *o 8000 -0.2 034 23 61 | 19.5 o 7500 -1.2 030 23 60 | 21.2 o* 7000 -2.4 026 26 59 | 22.6 o.* 6500 -3.7 019 25 57 | 24.0 o * 6000 -4.7 005 19 56 | 25.7 o * 5500 -5.9 002 14 55 | 27.1 o * 5000 -8.6 52 | 27.1 o * 4500 -11.3 50 | 27.2 o * 4000 -13.9 47 | 27.2 o * 3500 -16.6 44 | 27.2 o * 3000 -19.2 42 | 27.2 o * 2500 -21.9 39 | 27.2 o * 2000 -24.5 36 | 27.2 o * 1500 -27.2 34 | 27.3 o * 1000 -29.8 31 | 27.3 o * 500 -32.5 29 ! 27.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 8154 100 1408 6746 6662 0 101 783 7371 7367 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 61.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 62.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 62.2 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13267 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 20 kt Convection overcast height: 7066 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8982 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 14.6 76 | -8.5 15500 13.8 75 | -6.6 15000 13.0 74 | -4.7 14500 12.2 031 29 73 | -2.8 14000 11.4 72 | -0.9 13500 10.6 72 | 1.0 13000 9.8 035 29 71 | 2.9 12500 8.9 70 | 4.6 12000 7.8 69 | 6.1 11500 6.7 68 | 7.7 11000 5.5 67 | 9.2 o 10500 4.4 041 28 65 | 10.8 o 10000 3.2 039 30 64 | 12.2 * o 9500 1.9 038 32 63 | 13.6 *o. 9000 0.0 027 39 61 | 14.4 o 8500 -0.9 023 38 60 | 16.2 o 8000 -1.5 016 37 60 | 18.3 o* 7500 -1.9 012 35 59 | 20.5 o.* 7000 -2.3 006 32 59 | 22.7 o.* 6500 -3.0 002 30 58 | 24.7 o * 6000 -3.8 355 24 57 | 26.6 o * 5500 -4.7 352 19 56 | 28.4 o * 5000 -7.3 54 | 28.4 o * 4500 -10.0 51 | 28.4 o * 4000 -12.7 48 | 28.5 o * 3500 -15.3 46 | 28.5 o * 3000 -18.0 43 | 28.5 o * 2500 -20.6 40 | 28.5 o * 2000 -23.3 38 | 28.5 o * 1500 -25.9 35 | 28.5 o * 1000 -28.6 32 | 28.6 o * 500 -31.2 30 ! 28.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 8982 100 1894 7088 7149 0 100 1432 7550 7571 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html