DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on FRI Feb 5 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2723,3404 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2067 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1460 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 414 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -686 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4595 ft LCL= 9428 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -7316 ft LCL= 10741 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 1208,2125 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 625 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +162 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4900,7187 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5345 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 02/05:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 4218, 4833 Hcrit= 3602 HgtVar= 620 B/S=21 W*= 598 MAPS WxC Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 4218, 4833 Hcrit= 3602 HgtVar= 620 B/S=21 W*= 598 MAPS AVG Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 4218, 4833 Hcrit= 3602 HgtVar= 620 B/S=21 W*= 598 ETA NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 1229, 1976 Hcrit= 533 HgtVar=2301 B/S= 4 W*= 231 ETA WxC Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 1229, 1976 Hcrit= 533 HgtVar=2301 B/S= 4 W*= 231 ETA AVG Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 1229, 1976 Hcrit= 533 HgtVar=2301 B/S= 4 W*= 231 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 4218, 4833 Hcrit= 3602 HgtVar= 620 B/S=21 W*= 598 MAPSanl:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: -1139 (-8.5F) MAPS9h:02/06:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 1229, 1976 Hcrit= 533 HgtVar=2301 B/S= 4 W*= 231 ETAanal:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: -234 (-1.0F) ETA12hr:02/06:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 1208, 2125 Hcrit= 625 HgtVar=2986 B/S= 5 W*= 234 ETA24hr:02/06:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: +162 (+0.6F) ETA36hr:02/07:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 4900, 7187 Hcrit= 5345 HgtVar=2085 B/S=27 W*= 596 ETA48hr:02/07:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 5-Feb-2010 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 56.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 56.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 56.5 F Surface elev Temp: 25.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 25.7 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 25.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 25.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16290 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4833 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 26.8 324 54 83 | -1.8 15500 25.6 82 | -0.4 15000 24.5 81 | 1.2 14500 23.5 327 45 79 | 2.8 14000 22.6 79 | 4.7 o 13500 21.8 78 | 6.5 o 13000 20.9 77 | 8.3 o 12500 20.1 328 39 76 | 10.2 o 12000 19.4 75 | 12.1 o 11500 18.7 75 | 14.1 o 11000 18.0 74 | 16.0 o 10500 17.2 322 33 73 | 18.0 o 10000 16.6 315 30 73 | 20.0 * o 9500 15.9 72 | 21.9 * o 9000 15.1 305 26 71 | 23.9 * o 8500 14.5 306 23 70 | 25.9 * o 8000 14.2 308 20 70 | 28.3 * o 7500 14.0 313 18 70 | 30.8 * o 7000 13.6 321 17 70 | 33.0 * o 6500 12.2 322 17 68 | 34.3 * o 6000 9.3 322 14 65 | 34.1 * o 5500 4.3 010 9 60 | 31.8 . * o 5000 1.1 57 | 31.2 . *o 4500 -2.2 54 | 30.6 . o * 4000 -5.4 51 | 30.1 . o * 3500 -8.6 47 | 29.5 . o * 3000 -11.9 44 | 29.0 . o * 2500 -15.1 41 | 28.4 . o * 2000 -18.3 38 | 27.8 . o * 1500 -21.5 34 | 27.3 . o * 1000 -24.8 31 | 26.7 . o * 500 -28.0 28 ! 26.2 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 4833 -1 -4595 9428 15315 0 -1 -4595 9428 15315 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 6-Feb-2010 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 56.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 56.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 56.7 F Surface elev Temp: 37.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 38.6 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 37.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 38.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14722 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3425 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 31.3 87 | 2.9 15500 29.6 310 35 86 | 3.8 o 15000 27.8 310 34 84 | 4.7 o 14500 25.9 82 | 5.5 o 14000 24.0 312 31 80 | 6.2 o 13500 22.5 78 | 7.4 o 13000 21.0 311 29 77 | 8.6 o 12500 20.5 77 | 10.8 . o 12000 20.3 76 | 13.2 . o 11500 20.0 76 | 15.6 . o 11000 19.7 76 | 18.0 . o 10500 19.5 75 | 20.4 . o 10000 19.2 286 18 75 | 22.8 * . o 9500 19.0 75 | 25.2 * o 9000 18.7 278 15 75 | 27.7 . * o 8500 18.0 272 12 74 | 29.6 . * o 8000 17.1 257 8 73 | 31.3 . * o 7500 15.5 210 4 72 | 32.5 . * o 7000 13.6 144 7 70 | 33.3 . * o 6500 12.4 123 11 68 | 34.7 . * o 6000 12.1 113 14 68 | 37.1 . * o 5500 11.2 110 12 67 | 38.8 . * o 5000 8.5 64 | 38.8 . * o 4500 5.8 62 | 38.8 . * o 4000 3.1 59 | 38.7 . * o 3500 0.4 56 | 38.7 . o 3000 -2.3 54 | 38.7 . o * 2500 -5.0 51 | 38.7 . o * 2000 -7.7 48 | 38.7 . o * 1500 -10.3 46 | 38.7 . o * 1000 -13.0 43 | 38.7 . o * 500 -15.7 40 ! 38.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 3425 -1 -7316 10741 12835 0 -1 -7316 10741 12835 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html