DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on SAT Jul 4 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2671,3356 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2085 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1418 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 37 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 372 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -511 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +6 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 70% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5355 ft LCL= 8495 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 3021,4250 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2790 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: +298 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 4846,6545 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4824 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 07/04:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2485, 3142 Hcrit= 1933 HgtVar=1324 B/S= 6 W*= 366 MAPS WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 3823, 5750 Hcrit= 3944 HgtVar=7704 B/S=12 W*= 460 MAPS AVG Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@ 2914, 4133 Hcrit= 2773 HgtVar=7367 B/S= 8 W*= 434 ETA NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2857, 3571 Hcrit= 2238 HgtVar=1512 B/S=68 W*= 378 ETA WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 4307, 6800 Hcrit= 4791 HgtVar=6842 B/S=45 W*= 496 ETA AVG Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@ 3357, 4678 Hcrit= 3193 HgtVar=3655 B/S=41 W*= 453 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2485, 3142 Hcrit= 1933 HgtVar=1324 B/S= 6 W*= 366 MAPSanl:07/04:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 93.2 > 93.0 pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -312 (-1.6F) MAPS9h:07/05:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2857, 3571 Hcrit= 2238 HgtVar=1512 B/S=68 W*= 378 ETAanal:07/04:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -711 (-3.2F) ETA12hr:07/05:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 3021, 4250 Hcrit= 2790 HgtVar=3000 B/S=25 W*= 414 ETA24hr:07/05:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: +298 (+0.8F) ETA36hr:07/06:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 4846, 6545 Hcrit= 4824 HgtVar=1746 B/S=17 W*= 575 ETA48hr:07/06:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 4-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.6 F Surface elev Temp: 60.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 63.1 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 55 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 61.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 63.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10690 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3140 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 17.0 179 12 110 | 26.9 15500 15.4 108 | 28.0 15000 13.8 168 10 107 | 29.1 14500 12.5 106 | 30.5 14000 11.2 169 5 104 | 31.9 13500 10.1 103 | 33.4 13000 9.0 102 | 35.0 12500 7.9 287 4 101 | 36.6 12000 7.3 100 | 38.6 11500 7.0 100 | 41.0 11000 6.8 292 10 100 | 43.5 o 10500 6.8 298 13 100 | 46.2 o 10000 6.8 302 14 100 | 48.9 * o 9500 6.9 303 14 100 | 51.6 * o 9000 6.8 298 13 100 | 54.2 * o 8500 6.8 297 12 100 | 56.9 * o 8000 6.9 100 | 59.6 * o 7500 6.9 297 10 100 | 62.3 * o 7000 6.9 290 8 100 | 65.0 * o 6500 6.7 292 4 100 | 67.5 * o 6000 6.3 304 2 99 | 69.7 * o 5500 5.7 259 1 99 | 71.8 * o 5000 5.0 228 1 98 | 73.8 * o 4500 4.1 146 3 97 | 75.5 * o 4000 2.6 126 3 96 | 76.7 . * o 3500 1.0 111 7 94 | 77.7 . o 3000 -0.4 102 9 93 | 79.1 o 2500 -3.9 098 11 89 | 78.2 o * 2000 -7.6 105 12 85 | 77.2 o * 1500 -12.4 119 11 81 | 75.0 o * 1000 -18.4 140 10 75 | 71.7 . o * 500 -27.0 139 15 66 ! 65.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 3140 70 -5355 8495 14678 0 28 -8273 11413 14678 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 5-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.8 F Surface elev Temp: 94.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 97.4 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 55 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 131 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 93.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 95.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9782 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 17.6 226 11 111 | 28.2 15500 15.9 109 | 29.1 15000 13.9 232 9 107 | 29.8 14500 13.2 106 | 31.8 14000 12.6 106 | 33.8 13500 12.0 201 10 105 | 35.9 13000 9.3 102 | 35.9 12500 7.1 196 11 100 | 36.4 12000 6.9 100 | 38.9 11500 6.7 193 8 100 | 41.3 11000 6.5 100 | 43.8 o 10500 6.4 191 7 99 | 46.3 o 10000 6.3 185 6 99 | 49.0 * o 9500 6.3 176 5 99 | 51.6 * o 9000 6.2 165 3 99 | 54.2 * o 8500 6.0 132 1 99 | 56.6 * o 8000 5.7 003 2 99 | 59.0 * o 7500 5.5 342 3 99 | 61.5 * o 7000 5.2 98 | 63.9 * o 6500 5.0 329 4 98 | 66.3 * o 6000 5.0 322 4 98 | 69.0 * o 5500 4.9 316 4 98 | 71.6 * o 5000 4.8 310 4 98 | 74.1 * o 4500 4.5 312 3 98 | 76.5 * o 4000 3.8 184 3 97 | 78.5 * o 3500 3.0 187 7 96 | 80.4 * o 3000 1.2 195 8 94 | 81.2 *o 2500 0.2 188 11 93 | 82.9 . o 2000 0.3 184 11 93 | 85.6 . *o 1500 0.2 182 11 93 | 88.3 . o 1000 0.2 177 11 93 | 91.0 . o 500 0.3 175 11 93 ! 93.7 . *o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html