DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TRUCKEE on THU Jul 29 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 14750,18437 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 15764 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2313 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 10 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 791 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -694 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 81% PM= 46% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1873 ft LCL= 16555 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4342 ft LCL= 14950 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 12571,15700 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 13414 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -646 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 12611,14833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 12717 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTRK ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 07/29:12Z for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@14750,18437 Hcrit=15764 HgtVar=2313 B/S=10 W*= 791 WxC Tmax= 80 > TI=-4,0@10333,14833 Hcrit=12407 HgtVar=3600 B/S=11 W*= 558 AVG Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@12666,17666 Hcrit=14945 HgtVar=1834 B/S=10 W*= 698 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@ 9100,10846 Hcrit= 8891 HgtVar=4954 B/S= 5 W*= 363 MAPSanl:07/29:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 85.3 > 84.0 pm NWS Tmax= 84 > Change@TI=+4: +161 (+0.3F) MAPS9h:07/30:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@14071,17812 Hcrit=15220 HgtVar=2500 B/S= 9 W*= 766 ETAanal:07/29:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 84 > Change@TI=+4: -1550 (-2.9F) ETA12hr:07/30:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@12571,15700 Hcrit=13414 HgtVar=2688 B/S= 8 W*= 689 ETA24hr:07/30:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 84 > Change@TI=+4: -646 (-1.3F) ETA36hr:07/31:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@12611,14833 Hcrit=12717 HgtVar=2354 B/S= 6 W*= 674 ETA48hr:07/31:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 29-JUL-2010 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 84.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.6 F Raob est. max temp: 81.1 F Surface elev Temp: 67.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 68.4 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 7290 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 61.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 62.7 F Lifted Index @700mb: 4.0 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 13661 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 14469 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 17451 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 16499 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 18428 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 2.8 87 | 13.1 19500 2.0 200 23 86 | 15.0 19000 1.2 197 24 85 | 16.8 18500 0.2 194 26 84 | 18.5 18000 -1.4 190 27 83 | 19.6 o 17500 -2.3 184 30 82 | 21.3 o* 17000 -2.8 180 32 81 | 23.5 o * 16500 -3.4 180 27 81 | 25.6 . o * 16000 -3.6 80 | 28.1 o * 15500 -3.7 176 21 80 | 30.6 o * 15000 -3.9 80 | 33.1 o * 14500 -4.2 162 18 80 | 35.5 o * 14000 -4.5 79 | 37.8 o * 13500 -5.1 144 17 79 | 40.0 o * 13000 -5.6 78 | 42.0 o * 12500 -6.2 78 | 44.1 o * 12000 -6.8 77 | 46.2 o * 11500 -7.4 108 13 77 | 48.3 o * 11000 -7.7 109 12 76 | 50.7 . o * 10500 -7.9 145 9 76 | 53.1 . o * 10000 -8.4 093 6 76 | 55.3 . o * 9500 -9.1 75 | 57.3 . o * 9000 -9.9 359 0 74 | 59.2 . o * 8500 -11.0 73 | 60.8 . o * 8000 -12.1 270 4 72 | 62.3 . o * 7500 -14.3 291 5 70 | 62.7 . o * 7000 -15.8 68 | 63.9 . o * 6500 -16.5 68 | 66.0 . o * 6000 -17.1 67 | 68.0 . o * 5500 -17.7 66 ! 70.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@18428 81 1873 16555 19279 0 73 148 18280 19279 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 30-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from TRK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 84.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 87.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 87.9 F Surface elev Temp: 85.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 88.0 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5921 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 85.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 87.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14706 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10608 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 13.6 280 9 98 | 26.1 o 19500 11.8 287 7 96 | 26.9 o 19000 10.0 293 5 94 | 27.8 . o 18500 7.8 92 | 28.3 . o 18000 5.7 266 6 90 | 28.8 *. o 17500 4.7 89 | 30.5 *. o 17000 4.0 88 | 32.5 * o 16500 3.3 87 | 34.5 .* o 16000 2.6 87 | 36.4 . * o 15500 1.9 86 | 38.4 . *o 15000 1.2 85 | 40.4 . *o 14500 0.6 196 6 85 | 42.4 . *o 14000 0.5 85 | 45.0 . o 13500 0.5 84 | 47.7 . o 13000 0.4 84 | 50.3 . o 12500 0.4 239 2 84 | 52.9 . o 12000 0.3 288 2 84 | 55.5 . *o 11500 0.1 308 2 84 | 58.0 . o 11000 0.1 327 4 84 | 60.7 . o 10500 -0.0 340 5 84 | 63.2 . o 10000 -0.0 346 6 84 | 65.8 . o 9500 0.0 347 6 84 | 68.6 . o 9000 0.0 350 7 84 | 71.2 . o 8500 0.1 352 8 84 | 74.0 . o 8000 0.1 355 8 84 | 76.7 . o 7500 0.1 358 9 84 | 79.3 . o 7000 0.2 359 9 84 | 82.1 . o 6500 0.2 000 9 84 | 84.8 . o 6000 0.2 001 9 84 ! 87.5 . *o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@10608 43 -4666 15274 16042 0 46 -4342 14950 16042 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=96161 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/96161 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html