DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TRUCKEE on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8200,8485 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7388 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 331 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 5 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 339 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +309 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 57% PM= 83% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1796 ft LCL= 10280 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2382 ft LCL= 10197 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 6789,8131 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6299 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +124 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7437,9230 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7650 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KTRK 031120Z 0312/0412 VRB03KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 39 > TI=-4,0@ 8200, 8485 Hcrit= 7388 HgtVar= 331 B/S= 5 W*= 339 WxC Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 8414, 8733 Hcrit= 7673 HgtVar= 378 B/S= 6 W*= 384 AVG Tmax=40.5> TI=-4,0@ 8307, 8608 Hcrit= 7534 HgtVar= 333 B/S= 5 W*= 362 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 39 > TI=-4,0@ 9439,11277 Hcrit= 9698 HgtVar=2806 B/S= 3 W*= 505 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 39 > Change@TI=+4: +500 (+1.3F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 39 > TI=-4,0@ 6592, 7375 Hcrit= 5900 HgtVar= 780 B/S= 4 W*= 179 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 39 > Change@TI=+4: +118 (+1.3F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 39 > TI=-4,0@ 6789, 8131 Hcrit= 6299 HgtVar= 931 B/S= 5 W*= 226 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 39 > Change@TI=+4: +124 (+1.1F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 7437, 9230 Hcrit= 7650 HgtVar=1295 B/S= 6 W*= 307 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 3-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 39.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 39.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 39.5 F Raob est. max temp: 60.8 F Surface elev Temp: 25.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 26.5 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 7881 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 18.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 19.3 F Lifted Index @700mb: 15.1 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 7817 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 10170 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 20426 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 12517 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8484 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 34.2 024 25 73 | -1.7 o 19500 33.2 72 | 0.0 o 19000 31.9 71 | 1.4 o 18500 30.8 015 20 70 | 2.9 o 18000 29.8 008 20 69 | 4.6 * o 17500 29.6 69 | 7.1 * o 17000 29.5 69 | 9.7 * o 16500 29.4 68 | 12.2 * o 16000 29.3 68 | 14.8 * o 15500 29.2 68 | 17.4 * o 15000 29.1 002 18 68 | 20.0 * o 14500 28.6 68 | 22.1 * o 14000 27.9 011 16 67 | 24.1 * o 13500 26.2 65 | 25.1 * o 13000 24.4 018 17 63 | 26.0 * o 12500 23.6 63 | 27.8 * o 12000 22.9 62 | 29.8 * o 11500 22.2 016 16 61 | 31.8 * o 11000 20.0 59 | 32.3 * o 10500 17.6 57 | 32.5 * o 10000 15.2 355 15 54 | 32.8 * o 9500 9.8 021 13 49 | 30.1 * o 9000 6.2 035 13 45 | 29.2 * o 8500 0.2 069 12 39 | 25.8 . o 8000 -6.8 108 12 32 | 21.5 . o * 7500 -10.2 29 | 20.7 . o * 7000 -11.1 28 | 22.5 . o * 6500 -12.0 27 | 24.3 . o * 6000 -12.8 26 | 26.1 . o * 5500 -13.7 119 6 25 ! 27.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@ 8484 57 -1796 10280 21078 0 38 -4318 12802 21078 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from TRK MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 39.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 40.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 40.1 F Surface elev Temp: 26.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.0 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 6092 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 25.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 26.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9168 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 24 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 31 kt Convection overcast height: 10837 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12579 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 10.6 50 |-24.7 19500 10.4 49 |-22.3 o 19000 10.1 49 |-19.9 o 18500 9.9 49 |-17.5 . o 18000 9.6 022 24 49 |-15.1 * . o 17500 8.7 48 |-13.3 * . o 17000 7.4 46 |-11.9 * . o 16500 6.3 031 28 45 |-10.3 * . o 16000 5.5 45 | -8.5 *. o 15500 4.7 44 | -6.6 *. o 15000 3.9 43 | -4.7 * o 14500 3.2 031 29 42 | -2.8 *. o 14000 2.4 41 | -0.9 * o 13500 1.6 41 | 1.0 *o 13000 0.8 035 29 40 | 2.9 .o 12500 -0.2 39 | 4.6 . o 12000 -1.3 38 | 6.1 .o 11500 -2.4 37 | 7.7 .o* 11000 -3.5 36 | 9.2 .o * 10500 -4.6 041 28 34 | 10.8 o * 10000 -5.8 039 30 33 | 12.2 o * 9500 -7.1 038 32 32 | 13.6 o * 9000 -9.0 027 39 30 | 14.4 o * 8500 -9.9 023 38 29 | 16.2 o * 8000 -10.5 016 37 29 | 18.3 o * 7500 -10.9 012 35 28 | 20.5 o * 7000 -11.4 006 32 28 | 22.7 o * 6500 -12.0 002 30 27 | 24.7 o. * 6000 -12.8 355 24 26 ! 26.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@12579 100 4442 8137 7944 0 83 2382 10197 10278 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=96161 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/96161 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html