DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for STATE COLLEGE, PA on SAT Mar 13 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 99 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1680 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= % PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 1409,2583 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 815 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -36 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 4500,5069 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3736 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUNV ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at PIT @ 03/13:12Z for Sfc= 815 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 46.4 > 45.0 NWS Tmax= 45 > TI=-4,0@ -, - Hcrit= HgtVar= B/S=99 W*= - WxC Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ -, 1307 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar=2554 B/S= 2 W*= 42 AVG Tmax=46.5> TI=-4,0@ -, 815 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar=2585 B/S=99 W*= 0 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 45 > TI=-4,0@ 2919, 3564 Hcrit= 2338 HgtVar= 645 B/S=12 W*= 324 MAPSanl:03/13:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 54.7 > 45.0 pm NWS Tmax= 45 > Change@TI=+4: -3272 (-26.4F) MAPS9h:03/14:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 45 > TI=-4,0@ 1309, 2600 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar= 811 B/S= 1 W*= 166 ETAanal:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 45 > Change@TI=+4: -88 (-1.2F) ETA12hr:03/14:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 45 > TI=-4,0@ 1409, 2583 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar= 938 B/S= 3 W*= 171 ETA24hr:03/14:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 45 > Change@TI=+4: -36 (-0.4F) ETA36hr:03/15:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 4500, 5069 Hcrit= 3736 HgtVar= 559 B/S= 4 W*= 467 ETA48hr:03/15:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 13-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from PIT OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 45.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 48.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 48.2 F Raob est. max temp: 64.2 F Surface elev Temp: 46.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 48.2 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1224 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 46.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 48.2 F Lifted Index @700mb: 8.1 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2281 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 3170 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 3428 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 2705 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 34.9 80 | 23.2 . o 11500 34.3 79 | 25.3 . o 11000 33.7 79 | 27.3 .o 10500 33.1 78 | 29.4 .o 10000 30.3 115 41 75 | 29.3 * .o 9500 29.4 115 45 74 | 31.1 * o 9000 27.6 73 | 32.0 * .o 8500 25.8 71 | 32.8 * .o 8000 24.2 115 48 69 | 33.9 * . o 7500 23.1 68 | 35.4 * . o 7000 21.9 67 | 36.9 * . o 6500 20.7 66 | 38.4 * . o 6000 19.7 119 51 65 | 40.1 * . o 5500 18.4 118 54 63 | 41.4 * .o 5000 11.9 116 57 57 | 37.6 * .o 4500 8.3 105 50 53 | 36.7 * .o 4000 6.2 51 | 37.2 * .o 3500 4.3 093 43 49 | 38.0 * . o 3000 3.3 48 | 39.7 * .o 2500 2.2 075 25 47 | 41.3 * o 2000 1.9 070 21 47 | 43.7 .* o 1500 2.1 074 7 47 | 46.5 . * o 1000 0.8 075 5 46 ! 47.9 . *o ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 14-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from UNV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 45.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 55.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 55.6 F Surface elev Temp: 54.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.6 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13070 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 26.3 71 | 22.1 . o 11500 26.1 71 | 24.7 . o 11000 26.0 71 | 27.2 . o 10500 25.9 71 | 29.7 . o 10000 25.7 163 9 71 | 32.2 * . o 9500 25.6 162 9 71 | 34.8 * . o 9000 25.6 157 11 71 | 37.5 * . o 8500 25.4 153 12 70 | 40.0 * . o 8000 25.3 149 13 70 | 42.5 *. o 7500 25.2 146 15 70 | 45.1 .* o 7000 25.2 143 15 70 | 47.7 . * o 6500 25.2 138 16 70 | 50.4 . * o 6000 25.2 135 15 70 | 53.1 . * o 5500 24.5 132 13 69 | 55.1 . * o 5000 21.9 67 | 55.1 . * o 4500 19.3 64 | 55.2 . * o 4000 16.7 62 | 55.2 . * o 3500 14.0 59 | 55.3 . * o 3000 11.4 56 | 55.4 . * o 2500 8.8 54 | 55.4 . * o 2000 6.2 51 | 55.5 . * o 1500 3.6 49 | 55.5 . * o 1000 1.0 129 9 46 ! 55.6 . *o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=16801 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/16801 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html