DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for STATE COLLEGE, PA on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 91% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 158 ft LCL= 3288 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2030 ft LCL= 5773 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 3461,5038 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3543 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KUNV 031527Z 0315/0412 32007KT P6SM BKN035 FM031900 29004KT P6SM SCT035 SCT250 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at PIT @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 815 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NO RAOB+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 3110, 3449 Hcrit= 2266 HgtVar=1127 B/S=12 W*= 322 NO RAOB+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 3230, 3981 Hcrit= 2766 HgtVar= 749 B/S= 6 W*= 374 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 43 > Change@TI=+4: -172 (-1.2F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 3354, 4217 Hcrit= 2938 HgtVar= 859 B/S= 5 W*= 382 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 43 > Change@TI=+4: +96 (+0.6F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@ 2656, 4222 Hcrit= 2757 HgtVar=1670 B/S= 9 W*= 335 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm WxC Tmax= 44 > Change@TI=+4: +372 (+1.7F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam WxC Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 3461, 5038 Hcrit= 3543 HgtVar=1378 B/S= 7 W*= 407 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+WxCtmax *************** 3-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from PIT OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 43.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 43.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 43.9 F Raob est. max temp: 47.9 F Surface elev Temp: 29.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1224 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 29.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Lifted Index @700mb: 11.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2300 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 3883 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 10561 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 5563 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3446 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 27.6 315 43 71 | 11.7 o 11500 26.0 69 | 12.7 o 11000 24.2 315 40 67 | 13.6 o 10500 23.4 66 | 15.4 o 10000 22.6 315 34 66 | 17.4 * o 9500 22.2 65 | 19.6 * o 9000 21.7 65 | 21.8 * o 8500 21.3 64 | 24.0 * o 8000 20.8 320 31 64 | 26.2 * o 7500 17.5 320 28 61 | 25.6 * o 7000 14.4 57 | 25.2 * o 6500 12.4 317 22 55 | 25.9 . * o 6000 10.1 315 22 53 | 26.2 . * o 5500 6.3 320 20 49 | 25.1 .* o 5000 5.1 325 19 48 | 26.6 . * o 4500 3.8 322 14 47 | 27.9 . * o 4000 2.3 320 11 45 | 29.1 . * o 3500 0.6 317 11 44 | 30.1 . *o 3000 -5.3 315 11 38 | 26.8 . o * 2500 -8.0 303 7 35 | 26.8 . o * 2000 -8.5 310 3 34 | 29.0 . o * 1500 -9.0 284 2 34 | 31.2 . o * 1000 -12.0 275 2 31 ! 30.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 3446 91 158 3288 10365 0 74 -1501 4947 10365 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from UNV MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 43.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 44.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 44.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9268 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3743 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 21.8 65 | 6.1 . o 11500 20.7 64 | 7.7 .o 11000 19.5 63 | 9.2 o 10500 18.4 041 28 61 | 10.8 .o 10000 17.2 039 30 60 | 12.2 * o 9500 15.9 038 32 59 | 13.6 * o. 9000 14.0 027 39 57 | 14.4 * o 8500 13.1 023 38 56 | 16.2 * o 8000 12.6 016 37 56 | 18.3 * o 7500 12.1 012 35 55 | 20.5 * o 7000 11.7 006 32 55 | 22.7 * o 6500 11.0 002 30 54 | 24.7 * o 6000 10.2 355 24 53 | 26.6 * o 5500 9.3 352 19 52 | 28.4 * .o 5000 6.7 50 | 28.4 * .o 4500 4.0 47 | 28.4 * .o 4000 1.4 44 | 28.5 *o 3500 -1.3 42 | 28.5 .o* 3000 -3.9 39 | 28.5 .o * 2500 -6.6 36 | 28.5 .o * 2000 -9.2 34 | 28.5 .o * 1500 -11.9 31 | 28.6 .o * 1000 -14.6 351 13 28 ! 28.6 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 3743 -1 -2030 5773 5814 0 -1 -2030 5773 5814 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=16801 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/16801 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html