DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for STATE COLLEGE, PA on THU Sep 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6080,7230 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5318 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 3170 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 6 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 496 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +2917 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 77% PM= 56% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 405 ft LCL= 6821 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2559 ft LCL= 13984 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2375,3281 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1819 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +1027 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 1173,2600 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 815 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUNV ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at PIT @ 09/02:12Z for Sfc= 815 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 6080, 7230 Hcrit= 5318 HgtVar=3170 B/S= 6 W*= 496 WxC Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@ 3249, 6480 Hcrit= 4557 HgtVar=1720 B/S= 5 W*= 426 AVG Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 5400, 6846 Hcrit= 4932 HgtVar=2454 B/S= 5 W*= 460 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 5884, 7346 Hcrit= 5811 HgtVar= 654 B/S=20 W*= 682 MAPSanl:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +5067 (+24.4F) MAPS9h:09/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 5125, 7642 Hcrit= 5665 HgtVar=2158 B/S= 8 W*= 514 ETAanal:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +768 (+2.1F) ETA12hr:09/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@ 2375, 3281 Hcrit= 1819 HgtVar=2885 B/S=12 W*= 260 ETA24hr:09/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 85 > Change@TI=+4: +1027 (+3.4F) ETA36hr:09/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 1173, 2600 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar=2600 B/S= 2 W*= 147 ETA48hr:09/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 2-SEP-2010 12 UTC TI report from PIT OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 94.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.2 F Raob est. max temp: 85.4 F Surface elev Temp: 71.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 75.2 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1224 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 71.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 75.2 F Lifted Index @700mb: 1.8 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 3271 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 6205 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 9382 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 7993 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 16 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7226 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 6.2 97 | 41.3 11500 5.6 249 22 97 | 43.5 11000 4.9 96 | 45.4 10500 4.1 255 24 95 | 47.3 o 10000 3.6 95 | 49.5 * o 9500 3.2 94 | 51.7 * o 9000 2.7 94 | 53.9 * o 8500 2.3 93 | 56.1 * o 8000 1.8 261 30 93 | 58.4 * o 7500 0.7 92 | 59.9 o 7000 -0.6 90 | 61.3 o 6500 -1.9 247 21 89 | 62.6 o * 6000 -4.4 235 18 87 | 62.8 . o * 5500 -4.9 86 | 65.0 . o * 5000 -5.3 240 18 86 | 67.3 . o * 4500 -5.5 86 | 69.8 . o * 4000 -5.7 85 | 72.2 . o * 3500 -5.9 85 | 74.7 . o * 3000 -6.1 85 | 77.1 . o * 2500 -6.8 260 19 84 | 79.1 . o * 2000 -8.6 260 17 82 | 80.0 . o * 1500 -14.0 243 10 77 | 77.3 . o * 1000 -18.1 225 3 73 ! 75.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 7226 77 405 6821 9839 0 68 -1001 8227 9839 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from UNV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.3 F Surface elev Temp: 64.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 65.8 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 64.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 65.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 19454 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11425 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 4.6 288 25 96 | 37.2 11500 0.1 315 18 91 | 35.3 11000 -0.7 90 | 37.2 10500 -1.4 344 12 90 | 39.1 10000 -1.8 354 12 89 | 41.4 o* 9500 -2.2 012 12 89 | 43.7 o* 9000 -2.2 022 13 89 | 46.4 o * 8500 -2.3 027 14 89 | 49.0 o * 8000 -2.1 032 16 89 | 51.8 o * 7500 -2.2 035 16 89 | 54.4 o * 7000 -2.1 036 17 89 | 57.1 o * 6500 -2.1 037 17 89 | 59.8 o * 6000 -2.0 038 16 89 | 62.6 o * 5500 -2.5 039 14 88 | 64.8 o * 5000 -5.1 86 | 64.9 o * 4500 -7.6 83 | 65.0 o * 4000 -10.2 81 | 65.1 o * 3500 -12.7 78 | 65.2 o * 3000 -15.3 76 | 65.4 o * 2500 -17.9 73 | 65.5 o * 2000 -20.4 71 | 65.6 o * 1500 -23.0 68 | 65.7 o * 1000 -25.5 039 10 65 ! 65.8 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@11425 59 -2146 13571 20849 0 56 -2559 13984 20849 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=16801 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/16801 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html