DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on WED Jul 28 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5334,6639 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4961 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1520 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 54 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 606 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2370 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 82% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1350 ft LCL= 7274 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -8384 ft LCL= 10692 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 1314 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 2857,4458 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2876 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -2174 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2843,4409 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2848 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 07/28:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5092, 5928 Hcrit= 4413 HgtVar=1072 B/S=54 W*= 597 MAPS WxC Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 4518, 5259 Hcrit= 3800 HgtVar=1241 B/S=48 W*= 535 MAPS AVG Tmax=91.5> TI=-4,0@ 4796, 5571 Hcrit= 4089 HgtVar=1179 B/S=99 W*= 565 ETA NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5576, 7350 Hcrit= 5510 HgtVar=1968 B/S=55 W*= 616 ETA WxC Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 4384, 5961 Hcrit= 4268 HgtVar=1889 B/S=47 W*= 520 ETA AVG Tmax=91.5> TI=-4,0@ 5000, 6590 Hcrit= 4836 HgtVar=2046 B/S=51 W*= 566 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5092, 5928 Hcrit= 4413 HgtVar=1072 B/S=54 W*= 597 MAPSanl:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -3110 (-15.2F) MAPS9h:07/29:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5576, 7350 Hcrit= 5510 HgtVar=1968 B/S=55 W*= 616 ETAanal:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -1630 (-4.6F) ETA12hr:07/29:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2857, 4458 Hcrit= 2876 HgtVar=1750 B/S=99 W*= 400 ETA24hr:07/29:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -2174 (-8.2F) ETA36hr:07/30:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 94 > TI=-4,0@ 2843, 4409 Hcrit= 2848 HgtVar=1979 B/S=24 W*= 401 ETA48hr:07/30:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 28-Jul-2010 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 97.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 97.0 F Surface elev Temp: 62.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.0 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 62.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13704 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 2 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5924 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 22.5 163 11 116 | 34.3 15500 21.9 115 | 36.4 15000 21.3 114 | 38.5 14500 20.8 114 | 40.6 14000 20.2 113 | 42.6 13500 19.6 156 9 113 | 44.7 o 13000 19.0 112 | 46.8 o 12500 18.4 111 | 48.9 o 12000 17.9 154 7 111 | 51.1 . o 11500 17.8 173 8 111 | 53.7 . o 11000 16.9 189 5 110 | 55.4 . o 10500 15.9 155 2 109 | 57.1 . o 10000 15.6 096 3 109 | 59.5 * . o 9500 15.5 055 5 108 | 62.0 *. o 9000 15.2 019 6 108 | 64.4 * . o 8500 14.0 017 7 107 | 65.9 * . o 8000 9.6 017 8 103 | 64.2 * . o 7500 7.5 339 7 100 | 64.7 * . o 7000 4.0 323 8 97 | 63.9 *. o 6500 1.0 344 6 94 | 63.6 . *o 6000 0.3 359 4 93 | 65.5 . o 5500 -1.8 353 3 91 | 66.1 . o* 5000 -4.5 89 | 66.1 . o * 4500 -7.1 86 | 66.1 . o * 4000 -9.8 83 | 66.1 . o * 3500 -12.5 80 | 66.1 . o * 3000 -15.2 78 | 66.1 . o * 2500 -17.9 75 | 66.1 . o * 2000 -20.6 72 | 66.0 . o * 1500 -23.2 70 | 66.0 . o * 1000 -25.9 67 | 66.0 . o * 500 -28.6 64 ! 66.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 5924 82 -1350 7274 11699 0 79 -1393 7317 11699 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 29-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 97.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 97.4 F Surface elev Temp: 81.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 85.6 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 81.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 85.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13150 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2308 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 24.9 118 | 37.0 15500 24.3 117 | 39.1 15000 23.6 117 | 41.1 14500 23.0 116 | 43.2 14000 21.7 222 11 115 | 44.6 o 13500 19.6 192 16 113 | 45.1 o 13000 19.3 112 | 47.5 o 12500 19.3 188 16 112 | 50.1 o 12000 19.1 187 17 112 | 52.6 . o 11500 18.7 185 17 112 | 54.9 . o 11000 18.6 183 16 112 | 57.5 . o 10500 18.5 179 16 111 | 60.0 . o 10000 18.3 174 15 111 | 62.5 * . o 9500 18.1 173 14 111 | 65.0 * . o 9000 18.0 173 13 111 | 67.6 * . o 8500 17.9 173 12 111 | 70.2 * . o 8000 17.8 176 10 111 | 72.7 *. o 7500 17.6 181 9 111 | 75.2 * o 7000 17.6 189 8 111 | 77.8 .* o 6500 17.5 196 7 110 | 80.4 . * o 6000 17.4 200 6 110 | 83.0 . * o 5500 16.7 203 5 110 | 85.0 . * o 5000 14.1 107 | 85.0 . * o 4500 11.5 104 | 85.1 . * o 4000 8.9 102 | 85.1 . * o 3500 6.2 99 | 85.2 . * o 3000 3.6 97 | 85.3 . * o 2500 1.0 94 | 85.3 . *o 2000 -1.6 91 | 85.4 . o * 1500 -4.2 89 | 85.4 . o * 1000 -6.8 86 | 85.5 . o * 500 -9.5 84 ! 85.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 2308 -1 -8384 10692 11104 1314 -1 -8384 10692 11104 1314 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html