DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for WILLIAMS on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3964,4721 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3414 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 888 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 21 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 556 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +336 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 97% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4537 ft LCL= 10506 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 227 ft LCL= 6119 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2941,4026 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2671 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -76 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3576,5027 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3506 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KRBL 021130Z 0212/0312 35009KT P6SM SCT200 FM021700 35014G23KT P6SM FEW200 FM030000 34009KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 60 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 5586, 5971 Hcrit= 4649 HgtVar= 638 B/S=33 W*= 734 MAPS WxC Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 5778, 6283 Hcrit= 4937 HgtVar= 638 B/S=35 W*= 774 MAPS AVG Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 5682, 6116 Hcrit= 4785 HgtVar= 649 B/S=34 W*= 754 ETA NWS Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 2342, 3472 Hcrit= 2179 HgtVar=1139 B/S= 9 W*= 379 ETA WxC Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2916, 4029 Hcrit= 2703 HgtVar=1128 B/S=10 W*= 434 ETA AVG Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2617, 3750 Hcrit= 2444 HgtVar=1138 B/S= 9 W*= 407 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 5586, 5971 Hcrit= 4649 HgtVar= 638 B/S=33 W*= 734 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 65 > Change@TI=+4: +1200 (+10.0F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 60 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 2342, 3472 Hcrit= 2179 HgtVar=1139 B/S= 9 W*= 379 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 65 > Change@TI=+4: -528 (-2.8F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 2941, 4026 Hcrit= 2671 HgtVar= 995 B/S=15 W*= 423 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 65 > Change@TI=+4: -76 (-0.4F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 3576, 5027 Hcrit= 3506 HgtVar=1078 B/S=14 W*= 480 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 65.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 65.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 65.6 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18006 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5969 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 20.1 85 | 0.5 15500 19.9 85 | 2.9 15000 19.6 85 | 5.3 14500 19.3 84 | 7.7 14000 19.1 84 | 10.1 13500 18.8 200 13 84 | 12.5 o 13000 18.6 84 | 15.0 o 12500 18.4 83 | 17.4 o 12000 18.1 83 | 19.9 o 11500 17.9 193 7 83 | 22.3 o 11000 17.1 189 6 82 | 24.2 o 10500 16.7 193 5 82 | 26.4 o 10000 15.7 201 4 81 | 28.2 * o 9500 15.3 230 5 80 | 30.5 * o 9000 14.8 235 6 80 | 32.6 * o 8500 12.7 239 7 78 | 33.2 * o 8000 9.4 244 6 74 | 32.6 * o 7500 8.0 276 4 73 | 33.8 * o 7000 6.5 322 5 71 | 35.0 * o 6500 3.3 316 5 68 | 34.4 * o 6000 0.3 235 6 65 | 34.1 o 5500 -4.9 268 5 60 | 31.6 o * 5000 -7.6 57 | 31.5 o * 4500 -10.4 55 | 31.4 o * 4000 -13.2 52 | 31.3 o * 3500 -16.0 49 | 31.2 o * 3000 -18.7 46 | 31.1 o * 2500 -21.5 44 | 31.0 o * 2000 -24.3 41 | 30.9 o * 1500 -27.0 38 | 30.8 o * 1000 -29.8 35 | 30.7 o * 500 -32.6 32 ! 30.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 5969 42 -4537 10506 15985 0 41 -5144 11113 15985 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 65.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 66.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 66.6 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 60 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 60 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12636 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: 6090 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6346 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 16.3 114 19 81 | -2.3 15500 15.3 80 | -0.7 15000 14.2 79 | 0.9 14500 13.3 114 27 78 | 2.7 14000 12.6 78 | 4.7 13500 12.0 77 | 6.7 13000 11.3 76 | 8.8 12500 10.7 112 27 76 | 10.8 12000 9.8 75 | 12.5 11500 8.8 74 | 14.3 o 11000 7.9 110 28 73 | 16.0 .o 10500 7.2 72 | 17.9 o 10000 6.5 110 29 71 | 19.9 * .o 9500 5.7 111 28 71 | 21.9 * .o 9000 5.0 112 28 70 | 23.7 * .o 8500 4.2 113 28 69 | 25.6 * .o 8000 3.4 115 26 68 | 27.5 *. o 7500 2.6 115 25 68 | 29.4 *.o 7000 1.7 118 22 67 | 31.2 * o 6500 0.4 122 19 65 | 32.5 .o 6000 -0.8 119 11 64 | 34.0 o* 5500 -1.5 116 9 64 | 36.0 .o* 5000 -4.1 61 | 36.1 .o * 4500 -6.7 58 | 36.1 .o * 4000 -9.3 56 | 36.2 .o * 3500 -11.9 53 | 36.3 .o * 3000 -14.5 50 | 36.3 .o * 2500 -17.1 48 | 36.4 .o * 2000 -19.7 45 | 36.5 .o * 1500 -22.3 43 | 36.5 . o * 1000 -24.9 40 | 36.6 . o * 500 -27.6 37 ! 36.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 60 TI=0@ 6346 99 367 5979 5988 0 97 227 6119 6151 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html