DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TRUCKEE on SAT Mar 13 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 12750,15763 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 13493 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 721 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 5 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 703 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -182553 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 96% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 5269 ft LCL= 10485 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 9551,10291 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8976 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -1152 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 8312,10583 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8972 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTRK ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 03/13:12Z for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 34 > TI=-4,0@12750,15763 Hcrit=13493 HgtVar= 721 B/S= 5 W*= 703 WxC Tmax= 36 > TI=-4,0@15250,16171 Hcrit=13969 HgtVar=1273 B/S= 5 W*= 784 AVG Tmax= 35 > TI=-4,0@15000,16015 Hcrit=13776 HgtVar= 894 B/S= 5 W*= 746 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 40.8 > 34.0 am NWS Tmax= 34 > TI=-4,0@ -, 5990 Hcrit= 5900 HgtVar=1617 B/S=99 W*= 0 MAPSanl:03/13:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 51.6 > 34.0 pm NWS Tmax= 34 > Change@TI=+4: -362194 (+32.7F) MAPS9h:03/14:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 34 > TI=-4,0@10636,12500 Hcrit=10615 HgtVar=1863 B/S= 6 W*= 523 ETAanal:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 34 > Change@TI=+4: -2912 (-8.7F) ETA12hr:03/14:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 9551,10291 Hcrit= 8976 HgtVar= 834 B/S= 7 W*= 493 ETA24hr:03/14:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 51 > Change@TI=+4: -1152 (-7.0F) ETA36hr:03/15:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 8312,10583 Hcrit= 8972 HgtVar=2617 B/S=19 W*= 420 ETA48hr:03/15:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 13-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 34.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 34.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 34.7 F Raob est. max temp: 32.1 F Surface elev Temp: 23.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 24.1 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5942 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 23.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 23.9 F Lifted Index @700mb: 0.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 5509 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 7944 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 8282 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 9761 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 25 kt Convection overcast height: 12926 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 15754 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 15.6 50 |-25.1 o 19500 13.7 294 86 48 |-24.3 o 19000 11.1 45 |-24.3 o 18500 8.4 291 56 42 |-24.3 o 18000 6.9 290 51 41 |-23.1 * o 17500 6.1 40 |-21.3 * o 17000 5.2 39 |-19.5 * o 16500 4.1 279 50 38 |-17.9 * o 16000 0.9 275 50 35 |-18.4 o 15500 -1.0 275 41 33 |-17.6 o 15000 -3.0 275 36 31 |-17.0 o * 14500 -3.4 275 30 31 |-14.7 . o * 14000 -3.0 275 25 31 |-11.7 . o * 13500 -3.4 31 | -9.4 . o * 13000 -3.8 30 | -7.1 . o * 12500 -4.2 275 23 30 | -4.9 .o * 12000 -5.3 29 | -3.2 .o * 11500 -6.2 277 23 28 | -1.5 .o * 11000 -6.6 27 | 0.8 . o * 10500 -6.9 281 24 27 | 3.1 . o * 10000 -7.1 285 25 27 | 5.6 . o * 9500 -8.4 286 25 26 | 7.0 .o * 9000 -8.6 25 | 9.5 . o * 8500 -8.7 25 | 12.0 . o * 8000 -8.9 25 | 14.5 . o * 7500 -9.2 295 27 25 | 16.9 . o * 7000 -10.0 24 | 18.8 . o * 6500 -10.7 286 18 23 | 20.7 . o * 6000 -10.6 275 13 23 | 23.5 . o * 5500 -10.6 23 ! 26.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@15754 96 5269 10485 10757 0 80 3761 11993 12200 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 14-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from TRK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 34.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 52.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 52.5 F Surface elev Temp: 52.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 53.6 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 6105 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 51.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 52.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12874 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 15 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 15 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 13.1 47 | -9.8 o 19500 12.6 47 | -7.6 o 19000 12.2 193 17 46 | -5.3 o 18500 11.7 200 18 46 | -3.2 o 18000 11.1 45 | -1.1 * o 17500 10.6 45 | 1.0 * o 17000 10.0 44 | 3.1 * o 16500 9.4 43 | 5.2 * o 16000 6.3 235 20 40 | 4.8 * o 15500 5.0 39 | 6.2 . * o 15000 4.1 38 | 7.9 . * o 14500 3.1 243 11 37 | 9.6 .* o 14000 2.8 37 | 12.0 .* o 13500 2.7 37 | 14.5 . * o 13000 2.5 37 | 17.1 . *o 12500 2.4 36 | 19.6 . * o 12000 2.2 36 | 22.1 . * o 11500 2.1 36 | 24.7 . *o 11000 2.0 36 | 27.2 . *o 10500 1.8 36 | 29.7 . *o 10000 1.7 163 9 36 | 32.2 . *o 9500 1.6 162 9 36 | 34.8 . *o 9000 1.6 157 11 36 | 37.5 . *o 8500 1.4 153 12 35 | 40.0 . *o 8000 1.3 149 13 35 | 42.5 . o 7500 1.2 146 15 35 | 45.1 . *o 7000 1.1 143 15 35 | 47.7 . *o 6500 1.1 138 16 35 | 50.4 . *o 6000 1.1 135 15 35 ! 53.1 . *o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=96161 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/96161 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html