DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TRUCKEE on TUE Aug 31 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 12833,13921 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 12171 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1829 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 20 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 763 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +867 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 93% PM= 34% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2289 ft LCL= 11629 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6414 ft LCL= 14845 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 11833,13416 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 11571 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: -497 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 13000,15277 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 13135 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTRK ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 08/31:12Z for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@12833,13921 Hcrit=12171 HgtVar=1829 B/S=20 W*= 763 WxC Tmax= 71 > TI=-4,0@12166,13388 Hcrit=11677 HgtVar=1016 B/S=18 W*= 711 AVG Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@12555,13657 Hcrit=11926 HgtVar=1115 B/S=19 W*= 737 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@ 9055,10142 Hcrit= 8616 HgtVar=2774 B/S= 5 W*= 400 MAPSanl:08/31:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 75.6 > 73.0 pm NWS Tmax= 73 > Change@TI=+4: +1847 (+5.2F) MAPS10h:09/01:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@11760,12961 Hcrit=11280 HgtVar=1539 B/S=24 W*= 669 ETAanal:08/31:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 73 > Change@TI=+4: -113 (-0.4F) ETA12hr:09/01:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@11833,13416 Hcrit=11571 HgtVar=1784 B/S=23 W*= 640 ETA24hr:09/01:12Z WEDpm NWS Tmax= 79 > Change@TI=+4: -497 (-1.5F) ETA36hr:09/02:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@13000,15277 Hcrit=13135 HgtVar=2123 B/S=26 W*= 711 ETA48hr:09/02:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 31-AUG-2010 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 73.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 74.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 74.8 F Raob est. max temp: 65.1 F Surface elev Temp: 47.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 49.6 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 7067 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 42.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 44.5 F Lifted Index @700mb: 4.2 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 7047 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 8371 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 9254 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 13364 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13918 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 11.8 85 | 11.3 o 19500 11.2 84 | 13.4 o 19000 10.6 295 26 84 | 15.4 o 18500 9.9 83 | 17.4 o 18000 9.2 82 | 19.3 * o 17500 8.4 81 | 21.2 * o 17000 7.3 310 26 80 | 22.8 * o 16500 5.6 79 | 23.8 * o 16000 4.2 320 26 77 | 25.0 * o 15500 3.8 77 | 27.3 * o 15000 3.5 76 | 29.6 * o 14500 2.4 327 19 75 | 31.3 *o 14000 0.3 73 | 31.8 o 13500 -1.6 71 | 32.6 o* 13000 -3.4 70 | 33.4 o * 12500 -5.2 280 10 68 | 34.3 o * 12000 -6.4 67 | 35.8 o * 11500 -7.7 65 | 37.2 o * 11000 -9.4 251 8 64 | 38.2 o * 10500 -11.7 242 10 61 | 38.5 o * 10000 -16.4 240 10 57 | 36.5 . o * 9500 -19.5 164 5 54 | 36.1 . o * 9000 -21.1 52 | 37.1 .o * 8500 -21.9 51 | 39.0 . o * 8000 -22.7 078 4 50 | 40.9 . o * 7500 -23.4 50 | 42.8 . o * 7000 -24.1 051 7 49 | 44.8 . o * 6500 -24.6 48 | 47.0 . o * 6000 -25.1 48 | 49.2 . o * 5500 -25.6 339 3 47 ! 51.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@13918 93 2289 11629 18146 0 45 -1558 15476 18146 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 1-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from TRK MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 73.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 77.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 77.2 F Surface elev Temp: 75.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 77.3 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5912 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 75.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 77.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14954 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 16 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 17 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8431 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 8.7 82 | 10.5 19500 7.8 81 | 12.3 19000 6.9 258 39 80 | 14.1 o 18500 4.1 258 30 77 | 13.9 o 18000 3.9 77 | 16.4 * o 17500 3.8 77 | 19.0 * o 17000 3.8 77 | 21.6 * o 16500 3.7 77 | 24.2 * o 16000 3.7 77 | 26.9 . * o 15500 3.6 77 | 29.5 . * o 15000 3.5 77 | 32.1 . * o 14500 3.5 76 | 34.7 . * o 14000 3.4 76 | 37.3 . * o 13500 3.4 76 | 39.9 . * o 13000 3.3 76 | 42.6 . * o 12500 3.3 76 | 45.2 . * o 12000 3.2 176 23 76 | 47.8 . * o 11500 2.4 169 22 75 | 49.7 . * o 11000 2.1 158 21 75 | 52.0 . * o 10500 1.5 148 20 75 | 54.1 . *o 10000 1.1 136 19 74 | 56.4 . *o 9500 0.6 124 18 74 | 58.5 . o 9000 0.1 113 18 73 | 60.7 . *o 8500 0.0 104 18 73 | 63.3 . o 8000 -0.1 100 18 73 | 65.9 . o 7500 0.1 096 18 73 | 68.7 . o 7000 0.0 092 18 73 | 71.3 . o 6500 0.0 089 17 73 | 74.0 . o 6000 0.1 086 17 73 ! 76.7 . *o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@ 8431 31 -6956 15387 16859 0 34 -6414 14845 16859 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=96161 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/96161 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html