DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TRUCKEE on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8050,9140 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7733 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 674 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 5 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 332 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +492 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 63% PM= 95% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1329 ft LCL= 10467 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 978 ft LCL= 8644 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 6865,7717 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5900 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +65 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 7916,8833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7511 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KTRK 021143Z 0212/0312 00000KT P6SM BCFG FEW001 FM021700 36005KT P6SM FEW200 FM030100 VRB02KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 40 > TI=-4,0@ 8050, 9140 Hcrit= 7733 HgtVar= 674 B/S= 5 W*= 332 WxC Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@ 9140, 9814 Hcrit= 8493 HgtVar= 651 B/S= 5 W*= 429 AVG Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 8729, 9528 Hcrit= 8168 HgtVar= 588 B/S= 5 W*= 383 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 40 > TI=-4,0@ 6316, 6953 Hcrit= 5900 HgtVar=1153 B/S= 6 W*= 130 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 40 > Change@TI=+4: +1131 (+12.8F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TRK for Sfc= 5900 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 40 > TI=-4,0@ 6368, 7307 Hcrit= 5900 HgtVar=1387 B/S= 2 W*= 153 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 40 > Change@TI=+4: -146 (-1.5F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 40 > TI=-4,0@ 6865, 7717 Hcrit= 5900 HgtVar= 783 B/S= 5 W*= 212 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 40 > Change@TI=+4: +65 (+0.6F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 7916, 8833 Hcrit= 7511 HgtVar= 840 B/S= 7 W*= 321 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 2-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 40.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 40.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 40.7 F Raob est. max temp: 51.4 F Surface elev Temp: 30.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 31.2 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 7165 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 25.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 26.0 F Lifted Index @700mb: 7.9 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 6281 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 9651 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 16956 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 10970 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9138 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 29.3 69 | -5.4 o 19500 28.4 68 | -3.6 o 19000 27.4 67 | -1.9 . o 18500 26.4 355 47 66 | -0.2 . o 18000 25.4 355 47 65 | 1.4 * . o 17500 24.9 65 | 3.5 * . o 17000 24.3 64 | 5.6 * . o 16500 23.7 64 | 7.7 *. o 16000 23.1 63 | 9.8 * o 15500 22.6 63 | 11.9 * o 15000 22.0 62 | 14.0 .* o 14500 21.4 61 | 16.1 . * o 14000 20.9 356 48 61 | 18.2 . * o 13500 19.7 001 48 60 | 19.7 . * o 13000 17.0 57 | 19.7 .* o 12500 13.1 007 48 53 | 18.5 *. o 12000 11.6 52 | 19.7 * o 11500 10.5 010 49 50 | 21.2 .* o 11000 9.3 010 49 49 | 22.7 . * o 10500 8.3 007 45 48 | 24.3 * o 10000 5.3 005 42 45 | 24.0 * o 9500 1.8 008 33 42 | 23.3 * o 9000 -0.7 39 | 23.4 o 8500 -3.1 012 21 37 | 23.7 o * 8000 -4.1 36 | 25.3 . o * 7500 -5.6 356 11 34 | 26.5 . o * 7000 -8.1 324 6 32 | 26.7 . o * 6500 -8.7 31 | 28.7 . o * 6000 -9.4 31 | 30.8 . o * 5500 -10.0 319 8 30 ! 32.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@ 9138 63 -1329 10467 17831 0 46 -2913 12051 17831 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from TRK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 40.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 41.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 41.4 F Surface elev Temp: 33.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 34.4 F Surface elevation: 5900 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 6092 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 32.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 33.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 8052 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 23 kt Convection overcast height: 8771 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9622 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 16.8 57 |-17.3 . o 19500 16.6 120 14 57 |-14.8 . o 19000 13.6 115 17 54 |-15.1 o 18500 13.1 53 |-12.9 .o 18000 12.7 115 18 53 |-10.7 * o 17500 12.2 52 | -8.6 * .o 17000 11.6 52 | -6.4 * o 16500 11.1 51 | -4.2 * .o 16000 10.4 114 19 50 | -2.3 * .o 15500 9.3 49 | -0.7 * o 15000 8.2 48 | 0.9 * o 14500 7.4 114 27 47 | 2.7 * o 14000 6.7 47 | 4.7 * .o 13500 6.1 46 | 6.7 * o 13000 5.4 45 | 8.8 * .o 12500 4.8 112 27 45 | 10.8 * .o 12000 3.9 44 | 12.5 * o 11500 2.9 43 | 14.3 * o 11000 2.0 110 28 42 | 16.0 *.o 10500 1.2 41 | 17.9 *o 10000 0.5 110 29 41 | 19.9 .o 9500 -0.2 111 28 40 | 21.9 .o 9000 -1.0 112 28 39 | 23.7 .o* 8500 -1.7 113 28 38 | 25.6 .o* 8000 -2.5 115 26 38 | 27.5 .o * 7500 -3.3 115 25 37 | 29.4 . o * 7000 -4.2 118 22 36 | 31.2 . o * 6500 -5.6 122 19 34 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -6.7 119 11 33 ! 34.0 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5900 TI=0@ 9622 99 1685 7937 8248 0 95 978 8644 8682 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=96161 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/96161 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html