DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for STATE COLLEGE, PA on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6267,7150 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5301 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2850 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 8 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 509 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -930 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 89% PM= 59% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 124 ft LCL= 7008 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1941 ft LCL= 8039 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 6187,8000 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6044 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +912 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2720,4333 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2742 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUNV ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at PIT @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 815 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 6267, 7150 Hcrit= 5301 HgtVar=2850 B/S= 8 W*= 509 WxC Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 6267, 7150 Hcrit= 5301 HgtVar=2850 B/S= 8 W*= 509 AVG Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 6267, 7150 Hcrit= 5301 HgtVar=2850 B/S= 8 W*= 509 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 5927, 7000 Hcrit= 5555 HgtVar= 796 B/S=18 W*= 688 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z NO MAPSpm+NWStmax TI - bad raob file size RAOB/tmp.auto.tip_statecollege.raob.41 ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 3583, 7900 Hcrit= 5823 HgtVar=1671 B/S= 8 W*= 506 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 90 > Change@TI=+4: -930 (-3.2F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 6187, 8000 Hcrit= 6044 HgtVar=2111 B/S=11 W*= 556 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 92 > Change@TI=+4: +912 (+2.5F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 2720, 4333 Hcrit= 2742 HgtVar=3452 B/S= 6 W*= 320 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 1-SEP-2010 12 UTC TI report from PIT OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 90.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 94.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 94.2 F Raob est. max temp: 83.8 F Surface elev Temp: 65.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 69.8 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1224 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 65.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 69.8 F Lifted Index @700mb: 1.0 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1997 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 5677 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 8311 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 7297 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 0 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7132 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 9.4 242 15 99 | 43.8 11500 7.3 97 | 44.5 11000 5.5 95 | 45.3 o 10500 4.1 249 22 94 | 46.6 o 10000 4.0 94 | 49.1 * o 9500 3.8 245 22 94 | 51.6 * o 9000 2.5 93 | 53.0 * o 8500 1.3 237 17 91 | 54.4 *o 8000 0.9 91 | 56.8 *o 7500 0.7 237 16 91 | 59.2 o 7000 -0.3 240 15 90 | 60.9 o 6500 -2.7 235 15 87 | 61.2 o * 6000 -5.5 228 14 85 | 61.0 . o * 5500 -6.1 243 16 84 | 63.1 . o * 5000 -6.1 244 16 84 | 65.7 . o * 4500 -6.2 84 | 68.4 . o * 4000 -6.2 84 | 71.0 . o * 3500 -6.3 246 13 84 | 73.6 . o * 3000 -6.5 255 13 84 | 76.1 . o * 2500 -6.9 83 | 78.3 . o * 2000 -8.2 259 13 82 | 79.7 . o * 1500 -13.0 305 7 77 | 77.6 . o * 1000 -21.5 000 0 69 ! 71.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 7132 89 124 7008 10015 0 63 -1135 8267 10015 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using ETA12hr+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-SEP-2010 00 UTC TI report from UNV ETA12hr upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 90.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.9 F Raob est. max temp: 88.5 F Surface elev Temp: 81.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 85.7 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1280 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 81.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 85.7 F Lifted Index @700mb: 2.7 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 6208 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 7613 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 10577 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 8174 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6098 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 11.4 101 | 45.3 o 11500 10.3 100 | 46.9 o 11000 9.2 99 | 48.5 o 10500 8.1 278 17 98 | 50.1 o 10000 7.3 97 | 51.9 * o 9500 6.4 96 | 53.7 * o 9000 5.6 96 | 55.6 * o 8500 4.7 269 16 95 | 57.4 * o 8000 3.5 94 | 58.9 * o 7500 2.3 92 | 60.4 * o 7000 1.2 239 13 91 | 61.8 *o 6500 0.4 90 | 63.7 . o 6000 -0.1 90 | 65.9 . o 5500 -0.6 89 | 68.1 . o 5000 -1.0 226 11 89 | 70.4 . o* 4500 -1.1 89 | 72.9 . o* 4000 -1.2 89 | 75.5 . o* 3500 -1.4 231 10 89 | 78.0 . o* 3000 -1.5 89 | 80.6 . o * 2500 -1.5 88 | 83.2 . o* 2000 -1.6 235 7 88 | 85.8 . o * 1500 -4.0 86 | 86.1 . o * 1000 -6.9 236 2 83 ! 85.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 6098 60 -1626 7724 10753 0 59 -1941 8039 10753 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=16801 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/16801 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html