DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for STATE COLLEGE, PA on WED Mar 10 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 1436,1666 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 815 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 230 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 4 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 138 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -422 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 53% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3544 ft LCL= 5209 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4718 ft LCL= 9287 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 2344,2672 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1626 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +251 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2388,2833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1614 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUNV ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at PIT @ 03/10:12Z for Sfc= 815 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 1436, 1666 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar= 230 B/S= 4 W*= 138 WxC Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 1494, 1724 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar= 230 B/S= 4 W*= 148 AVG Tmax=56.5> TI=-4,0@ 1465, 1695 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar= 230 B/S= 4 W*= 143 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 5314, 5702 Hcrit= 4411 HgtVar= 270 B/S=99 W*= 579 MAPSanl:03/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: -716 (-9.4F) MAPS9h:03/11:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 2117, 2542 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar= 426 B/S=14 W*= 237 ETAanal:03/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: -129 (-1.6F) ETA12hr:03/11:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 2344, 2672 Hcrit= 1626 HgtVar= 328 B/S= 8 W*= 269 ETA24hr:03/11:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 57 > Change@TI=+4: +251 (+3.7F) ETA36hr:03/12:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 2388, 2833 Hcrit= 1614 HgtVar= 557 B/S= 3 W*= 257 ETA48hr:03/12:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 10-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from PIT OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 56.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 57.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 57.0 F Raob est. max temp: 63.8 F Surface elev Temp: 43.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 44.1 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1224 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 43.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 44.1 F Lifted Index @700mb: 3.3 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 4960 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 7330 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 9503 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 6863 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1665 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 19.4 245 23 75 | 16.8 o 11500 18.8 75 | 18.8 .o 11000 18.1 74 | 20.8 .o 10500 17.4 247 24 73 | 22.8 .o 10000 16.5 245 23 72 | 24.6 * o 9500 15.3 71 | 26.0 * .o 9000 14.0 70 | 27.5 * .o 8500 12.8 69 | 28.9 * .o 8000 11.6 68 | 30.3 * .o 7500 10.4 222 19 66 | 31.8 * .o 7000 10.2 66 | 34.3 * . o 6500 10.0 66 | 36.8 * . o 6000 9.8 66 | 39.3 *. o 5500 9.6 200 18 66 | 41.8 * o 5000 9.5 195 17 66 | 44.3 . * o 4500 9.3 65 | 46.8 . * o 4000 8.9 65 | 49.1 . * o 3500 8.6 65 | 51.4 . * o 3000 8.2 64 | 53.7 . * o 2500 7.8 150 10 64 | 56.0 . * o 2000 5.8 149 10 62 | 56.7 . * o 1500 -2.9 131 8 53 | 50.7 . o * 1000 -11.5 110 5 44 ! 44.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 1665 53 -3544 5209 10676 0 48 -5054 6719 10676 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 11-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from UNV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 56.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 56.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 56.9 F Surface elev Temp: 36.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 37.5 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 36.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 37.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13597 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4569 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 11.1 341 33 67 | 8.2 o 11500 10.1 66 | 9.8 o 11000 9.0 65 | 11.5 o 10500 8.0 355 31 64 | 13.2 o 10000 7.4 63 | 15.2 *. o 9500 6.7 008 28 63 | 17.2 *. o 9000 6.1 62 | 19.3 *. o 8500 5.5 022 24 62 | 21.4 * o 8000 5.5 023 23 61 | 24.0 .* o 7500 5.5 025 23 61 | 26.6 . * o 7000 5.5 027 22 62 | 29.3 . * o 6500 5.6 028 22 62 | 32.1 . * o 6000 5.3 030 20 61 | 34.5 . * o 5500 4.8 031 17 61 | 36.7 . * o 5000 2.2 58 | 36.8 . * o 4500 -0.4 56 | 36.8 . o 4000 -2.9 53 | 36.9 . o * 3500 -5.5 50 | 37.0 . o * 3000 -8.1 48 | 37.1 . o * 2500 -10.7 45 | 37.2 . o * 2000 -13.2 43 | 37.3 . o * 1500 -15.8 40 | 37.4 . o * 1000 -18.4 031 12 38 ! 37.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 4569 -1 -4718 9287 9491 0 -1 -4718 9287 9491 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=16801 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/16801 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html