DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for STATE COLLEGE, PA on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 90% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 329 ft LCL= 2748 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3843 ft LCL= 5964 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3236,4275 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2926 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KUNV 021422Z 0214/0312 VRB03KT P6SM BKN027 OVC120 FM021700 31010KT P6SM BKN028 OVC050 FM030100 30006KT P6SM SCT030 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at PIT @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 815 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NO RAOB+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. WxC Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 1692, 3076 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar= 339 B/S= 4 W*= 222 NO RAOB+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 2250, 2964 Hcrit= 1674 HgtVar= 714 B/S=12 W*= 258 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 42 > Change@TI=+4: -654 (-5.5F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UNV for Sfc= 815 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 1480, 2388 Hcrit= 815 HgtVar=1040 B/S= 8 W*= 174 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 42 > Change@TI=+4: +1165 (+11.3F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam WxC Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@ 3666, 4613 Hcrit= 3307 HgtVar= 962 B/S= 5 W*= 420 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm WxC Tmax= 44 > Change@TI=+4: -378 (-2.1F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 3236, 4275 Hcrit= 2926 HgtVar=1148 B/S= 6 W*= 368 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+WxCtmax *************** 2-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from PIT OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 42.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 43.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 43.2 F Raob est. max temp: 56.3 F Surface elev Temp: 34.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.1 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1224 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 34.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.1 F Lifted Index @700mb: 6.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1816 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 4014 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 7935 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 4092 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3077 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 26.5 281 32 69 | 9.8 . o 11500 25.2 282 31 67 | 11.2 . o 11000 24.8 284 30 67 | 13.5 . o 10500 21.5 282 29 63 | 12.8 . o 10000 20.1 275 27 62 | 14.1 * . o 9500 19.3 61 | 16.0 * . o 9000 18.7 275 23 61 | 18.1 *. o 8500 18.0 60 | 20.0 *. o 8000 17.1 276 25 59 | 21.8 * . o 7500 16.6 59 | 23.9 *. o 7000 16.2 58 | 26.2 .* o 6500 15.8 58 | 28.5 . * o 6000 15.4 57 | 30.8 . * o 5500 15.0 57 | 33.1 . * o 5000 14.6 305 26 57 | 35.3 . * o 4500 13.7 305 24 56 | 37.0 . * o 4000 11.8 54 | 37.9 . * o 3500 5.0 316 17 47 | 33.7 * o 3000 -0.9 337 16 41 | 30.5 . o* 2500 -2.0 360 12 40 | 32.0 . o * 2000 -3.2 39 | 33.5 . o * 1500 -4.5 000 8 38 | 34.9 . o * 1000 -6.3 345 4 36 ! 35.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 3077 90 329 2748 7480 0 84 -432 3509 7480 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from UNV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 42.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 43.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 43.5 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 815 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 815 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 7526 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2121 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 28.8 71 | 12.5 .o 11500 27.9 70 | 14.3 .o 11000 26.9 110 28 69 | 16.0 .o 10500 26.2 68 | 17.9 .o 10000 25.5 110 29 67 | 19.9 * .o 9500 24.8 111 28 67 | 21.9 * . o 9000 24.0 112 28 66 | 23.7 * .o 8500 23.2 113 28 65 | 25.6 * .o 8000 22.5 115 26 64 | 27.5 * . o 7500 21.6 115 25 64 | 29.4 * .o 7000 20.8 118 22 63 | 31.2 * . o 6500 19.4 122 19 61 | 32.5 * .o 6000 18.2 119 11 60 | 34.0 * .o 5500 17.5 116 9 60 | 36.0 * . o 5000 15.0 57 | 36.1 * . o 4500 12.4 54 | 36.2 * . o 4000 9.8 52 | 36.2 * . o 3500 7.2 49 | 36.3 * . o 3000 4.6 47 | 36.4 * . o 2500 2.0 44 | 36.5 * o 2000 -0.6 41 | 36.5 .o* 1500 -3.2 39 | 36.6 .o * 1000 -5.8 115 6 36 ! 36.7 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 815 TI=0@ 2121 -1 -3843 5964 5870 0 -1 -3843 5964 5870 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=16801 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/16801 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html