DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on WED Jul 28 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8810,10501 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 8734 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1915 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 10 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 442 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1012 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 90% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 286 ft LCL= 7886 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 32 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 7357,10555 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8359 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -645 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 7777,9900 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7918 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 07/28:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 7455, 8170 Hcrit= 6756 HgtVar= 830 B/S=12 W*= 324 MAPS WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 7014, 7642 Hcrit= 6137 HgtVar= 642 B/S=12 W*= 267 MAPS AVG Tmax=76.5> TI=-4,0@ 7235, 8000 Hcrit= 6531 HgtVar= 454 B/S=11 W*= 299 ETA NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@10166,12833 Hcrit=10712 HgtVar=3000 B/S= 8 W*= 560 ETA WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 8750,10750 Hcrit= 8814 HgtVar=2821 B/S= 7 W*= 430 ETA AVG Tmax=76.5> TI=-4,0@ 9454,11750 Hcrit= 9728 HgtVar=2916 B/S= 7 W*= 493 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 7455, 8170 Hcrit= 6756 HgtVar= 830 B/S=12 W*= 324 MAPSanl:07/28:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 81.3 > 78.0 pm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: +551 (+3.7F) MAPS9h:07/29:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@10166,12833 Hcrit=10712 HgtVar=3000 B/S= 8 W*= 560 ETAanal:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: -2575 (-5.5F) ETA12hr:07/29:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 7357,10555 Hcrit= 8359 HgtVar=2389 B/S= 5 W*= 363 ETA24hr:07/29:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: -645 (-2.2F) ETA36hr:07/30:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@ 7777, 9900 Hcrit= 7918 HgtVar=2350 B/S= 4 W*= 355 ETA48hr:07/30:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 28-Jul-2010 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 78.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 81.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 81.9 F Surface elev Temp: 62.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.0 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 62.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10602 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8172 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 21.5 100 | 23.1 19500 19.8 180 6 98 | 24.0 19000 18.1 96 | 25.0 18500 16.3 173 9 94 | 25.9 18000 15.3 93 | 27.5 17500 14.3 92 | 29.2 o 17000 13.3 91 | 30.9 o 16500 12.4 90 | 32.6 o 16000 11.4 163 11 89 | 34.3 . o 15500 10.8 89 | 36.4 . o 15000 10.2 88 | 38.5 * . o 14500 9.6 88 | 40.6 * . o 14000 9.0 87 | 42.6 * . o 13500 8.5 156 9 86 | 44.7 * . o 13000 7.9 86 | 46.8 *. o 12500 7.2 85 | 48.9 *. o 12000 6.8 154 7 85 | 51.1 *. o 11500 6.7 173 8 85 | 53.7 * o 11000 5.8 189 5 84 | 55.4 * o 10500 4.8 155 2 83 | 57.1 . * o 10000 4.5 096 3 82 | 59.5 . * o 9500 4.3 055 5 82 | 62.0 . * o 9000 4.0 019 6 82 | 64.4 . * o 8500 2.9 017 7 81 | 65.9 . * o 8000 -1.5 017 8 76 | 64.2 . o* 7500 -3.7 339 7 74 | 64.7 . o * 7000 -7.1 323 8 71 | 63.9 . o * 6500 -10.1 344 6 68 | 63.6 . o * 6000 -10.8 359 4 67 | 65.5 . o * 5500 -12.9 353 3 65 ! 66.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@ 8172 90 286 7886 11295 32 82 -1480 9652 11295 501 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 29-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 78.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.6 F Surface elev Temp: 81.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 85.6 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 81.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 85.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10864 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.4 96 | 23.6 19500 17.4 274 13 95 | 25.2 19000 15.9 94 | 26.5 18500 14.4 92 | 27.7 18000 13.0 270 15 91 | 28.9 17500 12.3 90 | 30.9 17000 11.7 90 | 32.9 o 16500 11.1 89 | 35.0 o 16000 10.5 88 | 37.0 o 15500 9.8 88 | 39.1 o 15000 9.2 87 | 41.1 * o 14500 8.6 87 | 43.2 * o 14000 7.3 222 11 85 | 44.6 . * o 13500 5.2 192 16 83 | 45.1 . * o 13000 4.9 83 | 47.5 . * o 12500 4.8 188 16 83 | 50.1 . * o 12000 4.6 187 17 83 | 52.6 . * o 11500 4.3 185 17 82 | 54.9 . * o 11000 4.2 183 16 82 | 57.5 . * o 10500 4.0 179 16 82 | 60.0 . * o 10000 3.9 174 15 82 | 62.5 . * o 9500 3.7 173 14 82 | 65.0 . * o 9000 3.6 173 13 82 | 67.6 . * o 8500 3.5 173 12 82 | 70.2 . * o 8000 3.3 176 10 81 | 72.7 . * o 7500 3.2 181 9 81 | 75.2 . * o 7000 3.1 189 8 81 | 77.8 . * o 6500 3.1 196 7 81 | 80.4 . * o 6000 3.0 200 6 81 | 83.0 . * o 5500 2.4 203 5 80 ! 85.1 . * o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html