DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6287,7296 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 6032 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1380 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 259 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +1614 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 98% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4171 ft LCL= 12468 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2580 ft LCL= 10373 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 111 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 5666,6521 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5000 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +135 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 6833,7785 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6415 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KRBL 021130Z 0212/0312 35009KT P6SM SCT200 FM021700 35014G23KT P6SM FEW200 FM030000 34009KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 7300, 8303 Hcrit= 7064 HgtVar=1322 B/S=17 W*= 383 MAPS WxC Tmax= 52 > TI=-4,0@ 8000, 8666 Hcrit= 7424 HgtVar=2521 B/S=15 W*= 427 MAPS AVG Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 7642, 8454 Hcrit= 7220 HgtVar=1896 B/S=18 W*= 403 ETA NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 5275, 6289 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=1438 B/S= 2 W*= 135 ETA WxC Tmax= 52 > TI=-4,0@ 5775, 6900 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=1676 B/S= 2 W*= 193 ETA AVG Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 5525, 6566 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=1600 B/S= 2 W*= 163 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 7300, 8303 Hcrit= 7064 HgtVar=1322 B/S=17 W*= 383 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: +3431 (+17.1F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 5275, 6289 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=1438 B/S= 2 W*= 135 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: -202 (-3.1F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 5666, 6521 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar= 888 B/S= 4 W*= 170 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: +135 (+1.4F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 6833, 7785 Hcrit= 6415 HgtVar=1067 B/S=11 W*= 298 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 50.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 50.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 50.5 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14522 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8297 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 12.5 62 |-17.1 19500 11.5 61 |-15.4 19000 10.5 197 30 60 |-13.8 18500 10.1 197 28 60 |-11.5 18000 9.8 60 | -9.1 17500 9.5 60 | -6.7 17000 9.3 59 | -4.3 16500 9.0 59 | -1.9 o 16000 8.7 59 | 0.5 o 15500 8.5 58 | 2.9 o 15000 8.2 58 | 5.3 * o 14500 7.9 58 | 7.7 * o 14000 7.7 58 | 10.1 * o 13500 7.4 200 13 57 | 12.5 * o 13000 7.2 57 | 15.0 * o 12500 7.0 57 | 17.4 * o 12000 6.7 57 | 19.9 * o 11500 6.5 193 7 57 | 22.3 * o 11000 5.7 189 6 56 | 24.2 * o 10500 5.3 193 5 55 | 26.4 * o 10000 4.3 201 4 54 | 28.2 * o 9500 3.9 230 5 54 | 30.5 * o 9000 3.4 235 6 53 | 32.6 . * o 8500 1.3 239 7 51 | 33.2 . *o 8000 -2.0 244 6 48 | 32.6 . o * 7500 -3.4 276 4 47 | 33.8 . o * 7000 -4.9 322 5 45 | 35.0 . o * 6500 -8.1 316 5 42 | 34.4 . o * 6000 -11.1 235 6 39 | 34.1 . o * 5500 -16.5 268 5 34 ! 31.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@ 8297 42 -4171 12468 16400 0 29 -5701 13998 16400 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 50.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 51.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 51.5 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9570 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 23 kt Convection overcast height: 10529 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12953 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 11.4 61 |-17.3 19500 11.3 120 14 61 |-14.8 19000 8.2 115 17 58 |-15.1 18500 7.8 58 |-12.9 18000 7.3 115 18 57 |-10.7 17500 6.8 57 | -8.6 17000 6.3 56 | -6.4 16500 5.8 56 | -4.2 16000 5.1 114 19 55 | -2.3 15500 4.0 54 | -0.7 .o 15000 2.9 53 | 0.9 * o 14500 2.0 114 27 52 | 2.7 *.o 14000 1.4 51 | 4.7 *o 13500 0.7 51 | 6.7 *o 13000 0.1 50 | 8.8 .o 12500 -0.6 112 27 49 | 10.8 .o 12000 -1.5 48 | 12.5 .o* 11500 -2.4 48 | 14.3 .o * 11000 -3.4 110 28 47 | 16.0 .o * 10500 -4.1 46 | 17.9 .o * 10000 -4.8 110 29 45 | 19.9 .o * 9500 -5.5 111 28 44 | 21.9 .o * 9000 -6.3 112 28 44 | 23.7 .o * 8500 -7.1 113 28 43 | 25.6 .o * 8000 -7.9 115 26 42 | 27.5 .o * 7500 -8.7 115 25 41 | 29.4 . o * 7000 -9.6 118 22 40 | 31.2 . o * 6500 -10.9 122 19 39 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -12.1 119 11 38 | 34.0 .o * 5500 -12.6 116 9 37 ! 36.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@12953 99 3953 9000 9266 0 98 2580 10373 10486 111 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html