DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MINDEN on WED Jul 28 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 16142,20194 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 17217 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1760 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 942 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1998 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -6 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 76% PM= 78% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3556 ft LCL= 16634 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1184 ft LCL= 12558 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 403 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 13250,16916 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 14317 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -1273 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 13700,17062 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 14494 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRNO ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 07/28:12Z for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@16142,20194 Hcrit=17217 HgtVar=1760 B/S=11 W*= 942 WxC Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 8875,14375 Hcrit=11837 HgtVar=4740 B/S=15 W*= 584 AVG Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@13954,17000 Hcrit=14294 HgtVar=3472 B/S=12 W*= 753 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at REV for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@10863,14416 Hcrit=12182 HgtVar=2684 B/S=25 W*= 704 MAPSanl:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: -1085 (-2.2F) MAPS9h:07/29:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at RNO for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@16666,19625 Hcrit=16750 HgtVar=2375 B/S=11 W*= 938 ETAanal:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: -2911 (-5.4F) ETA12hr:07/29:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@13250,16916 Hcrit=14317 HgtVar=2361 B/S=10 W*= 794 ETA24hr:07/29:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: -1273 (-2.4F) ETA36hr:07/30:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@13700,17062 Hcrit=14494 HgtVar=2438 B/S= 9 W*= 825 ETA48hr:07/30:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 28-JUL-2010 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 89.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 90.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 91.0 F Raob est. max temp: 79.7 F Surface elev Temp: 66.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 68.1 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 66.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 68.1 F Lifted Index @700mb: 3.7 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 11210 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 14784 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 17506 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 17443 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 14 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 16 kt Convection overcast height: 18835 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 20190 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 -0.7 170 39 88 | 8.1 19500 -1.0 168 38 88 | 10.4 19000 -2.3 166 37 87 | 11.8 18500 -2.5 86 | 14.3 * 18000 -2.7 86 | 16.8 o* 17500 -2.9 86 | 19.3 o * 17000 -3.0 161 31 86 | 21.8 o* 16500 -3.5 86 | 24.0 o * 16000 -4.2 85 | 26.0 . o * 15500 -4.8 151 24 84 | 28.0 . o * 15000 -5.0 145 20 84 | 30.5 . o * 14500 -5.8 151 15 83 | 32.4 . o * 14000 -6.9 154 12 82 | 34.0 . o * 13500 -7.1 163 12 82 | 36.4 . o * 13000 -7.6 81 | 38.6 . o * 12500 -8.0 151 11 81 | 40.9 . o * 12000 -8.1 81 | 43.4 . o * 11500 -8.2 81 | 46.0 . o * 11000 -8.3 140 5 81 | 48.6 . o * 10500 -8.6 177 7 80 | 50.9 . o * 10000 -8.8 80 | 53.4 o * 9500 -9.2 80 | 55.7 o * 9000 -9.6 203 7 79 | 57.9 o * 8500 -11.2 78 | 59.1 . o * 8000 -13.3 203 1 76 | 59.6 . o * 7500 -14.2 75 | 61.4 . o * 7000 -14.6 74 | 63.6 . o * 6500 -15.1 74 | 65.8 . o * 6000 -15.6 73 | 68.1 . o * 5500 -16.5 340 8 72 | 69.8 . o * 5000 -19.6 328 13 69 ! 69.4 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@20190 76 3556 16634 18423 0 68 1845 18345 18751 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 29-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from REV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 89.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.3 F Surface elev Temp: 81.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 85.6 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 81.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 85.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12455 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13742 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 12.1 101 | 23.6 o 19500 11.2 274 13 100 | 25.2 .o 19000 9.7 99 | 26.5 .o 18500 8.2 97 | 27.7 .o 18000 6.8 270 15 96 | 28.9 * . o 17500 6.1 95 | 30.9 * . o 17000 5.5 94 | 32.9 * o 16500 4.9 94 | 35.0 .* o 16000 4.2 93 | 37.0 . * o 15500 3.6 93 | 39.1 . * o 15000 3.0 92 | 41.1 . * o 14500 2.4 91 | 43.2 . * o 14000 1.1 222 11 90 | 44.6 . *o 13500 -1.1 192 16 88 | 45.1 . o* 13000 -1.3 88 | 47.5 . o 12500 -1.4 188 16 88 | 50.1 . o* 12000 -1.6 187 17 87 | 52.6 . o* 11500 -2.0 185 17 87 | 54.9 . o * 11000 -2.0 183 16 87 | 57.5 . o* 10500 -2.2 179 16 87 | 60.0 . o* 10000 -2.4 174 15 87 | 62.5 . o * 9500 -2.5 173 14 86 | 65.0 . o* 9000 -2.6 173 13 86 | 67.6 . o * 8500 -2.7 173 12 86 | 70.2 . o * 8000 -2.9 176 10 86 | 72.7 . o* 7500 -3.0 181 9 86 | 75.2 . o * 7000 -3.1 189 8 86 | 77.8 . o * 6500 -3.1 196 7 86 | 80.4 . o * 6000 -3.2 200 6 86 | 83.0 . o * 5500 -3.9 203 5 85 | 85.0 . o * 5000 -6.2 83 ! 85.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@13742 80 1524 12218 12827 286 78 1184 12558 12653 403 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89423 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89423 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html