DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MINDEN on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8479,9300 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7864 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 641 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 469 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +962 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 79% PM= 98% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -688 ft LCL= 9990 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1339 ft LCL= 8839 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 7750,8500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7268 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +237 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 8645,9500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8147 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KRNO 021143Z 0212/0312 VRB03KT P6SM SCT200 FM022000 07008KT P6SM FEW200 FM030300 VRB02KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 8479, 9300 Hcrit= 7864 HgtVar= 641 B/S= 7 W*= 469 WxC Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 8687, 9500 Hcrit= 8067 HgtVar= 600 B/S= 7 W*= 495 AVG Tmax=47.5> TI=-4,0@ 8583, 9400 Hcrit= 7966 HgtVar= 616 B/S= 7 W*= 482 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at REV for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 6416, 7100 Hcrit= 5957 HgtVar=1112 B/S=14 W*= 306 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 47 > Change@TI=+4: +2330 (+14.7F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at RNO for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 7115, 8526 Hcrit= 7159 HgtVar=1024 B/S= 7 W*= 403 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 47 > Change@TI=+4: -405 (-2.1F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 7750, 8500 Hcrit= 7268 HgtVar= 555 B/S=13 W*= 449 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 47 > Change@TI=+4: +237 (+1.8F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 8645, 9500 Hcrit= 8147 HgtVar= 833 B/S=12 W*= 532 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 2-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 47.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 47.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 48.0 F Raob est. max temp: 51.4 F Surface elev Temp: 28.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 29.9 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 28.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 29.9 F Lifted Index @700mb: 7.9 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 6281 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 9651 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 16956 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 10567 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9302 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 28.5 75 | -5.4 o 19500 27.5 75 | -3.6 o 19000 26.6 74 | -1.9 . o 18500 25.6 355 47 73 | -0.2 . o 18000 24.6 355 47 72 | 1.4 * . o 17500 24.0 71 | 3.5 * . o 17000 23.5 70 | 5.6 *. o 16500 22.9 70 | 7.7 * o 16000 22.3 69 | 9.8 * o 15500 21.7 69 | 11.9 .* o 15000 21.2 68 | 14.0 . * o 14500 20.6 68 | 16.1 . * o 14000 20.0 356 48 67 | 18.2 . * o 13500 18.9 001 48 66 | 19.7 . * o 13000 16.1 63 | 19.7 . * o 12500 12.3 007 48 59 | 18.5 * o 12000 10.8 58 | 19.7 .* o 11500 9.7 010 49 57 | 21.2 . * o 11000 8.4 010 49 55 | 22.7 . * o 10500 7.4 007 45 54 | 24.3 * o 10000 4.4 005 42 51 | 24.0 * o 9500 1.0 008 33 48 | 23.3 *o 9000 -1.5 45 | 23.4 o* 8500 -3.9 012 21 43 | 23.7 o * 8000 -4.9 42 | 25.3 . o * 7500 -6.5 356 11 41 | 26.5 . o * 7000 -8.9 324 6 38 | 26.7 . o * 6500 -9.6 37 | 28.7 . o * 6000 -10.2 37 | 30.8 . o * 5500 -10.9 319 8 36 | 32.8 . o * 5000 -14.2 316 8 33 ! 32.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@ 9302 79 -688 9990 17480 0 45 -2532 11834 17480 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from REV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 47.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 48.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 48.5 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 8759 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 20 kt Convection overcast height: 8709 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10178 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 16.0 63 |-17.3 . o 19500 15.8 120 14 63 |-14.8 .o 19000 12.8 115 17 60 |-15.1 o 18500 12.3 59 |-12.9 .o 18000 11.9 115 18 59 |-10.7 * o 17500 11.4 58 | -8.6 * o 17000 10.9 58 | -6.4 * .o 16500 10.3 57 | -4.2 * o 16000 9.6 114 19 57 | -2.3 * o 15500 8.5 56 | -0.7 * o 15000 7.5 54 | 0.9 * o 14500 6.6 114 27 54 | 2.7 * .o 14000 5.9 53 | 4.7 * .o 13500 5.3 52 | 6.7 * o 13000 4.6 52 | 8.8 * o 12500 4.0 112 27 51 | 10.8 * .o 12000 3.1 50 | 12.5 *.o 11500 2.1 49 | 14.3 *o 11000 1.2 110 28 48 | 16.0 *o 10500 0.5 47 | 17.9 o 10000 -0.3 110 29 47 | 19.9 o* 9500 -1.0 111 28 46 | 21.9 .o 9000 -1.7 112 28 45 | 23.7 .o* 8500 -2.5 113 28 44 | 25.6 .o * 8000 -3.3 115 26 44 | 27.5 .o * 7500 -4.1 115 25 43 | 29.4 .o * 7000 -5.0 118 22 42 | 31.2 . o * 6500 -6.3 122 19 41 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -7.5 119 11 39 | 34.0 o * 5500 -8.1 116 9 39 | 36.1 .o * 5000 -10.4 37 ! 36.5 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@10178 99 2117 8061 8366 0 98 1339 8839 8885 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89423 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89423 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html