DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on TUE Aug 31 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3666,6357 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4658 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1287 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 10 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 543 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2818 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1336 ft LCL= 5047 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -14446 ft LCL= 15470 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 1340,1670 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 230 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: +1271 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 581,831 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 230 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 08/31:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 3666, 6357 Hcrit= 4658 HgtVar=1287 B/S=10 W*= 543 WxC Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 2475, 3666 Hcrit= 2394 HgtVar=2691 B/S= 7 W*= 388 AVG Tmax= 80 > TI=-4,0@ 2766, 5111 Hcrit= 3581 HgtVar=2241 B/S= 8 W*= 467 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 4350, 5016 Hcrit= 3667 HgtVar= 850 B/S=19 W*= 532 MAPSanl:08/31:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: -2997 (-18.4F) MAPS10h:09/01:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 3421, 5916 Hcrit= 4210 HgtVar=1313 B/S=11 W*= 492 ETAanal:08/31:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: -2640 (-9.8F) ETA12hr:09/01:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 1340, 1670 Hcrit= 230 HgtVar= 580 B/S= 4 W*= 206 ETA24hr:09/01:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 82.9 > 82.0 WEDpm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: +1271 (+14.5F) ETA36hr:09/02:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 581, 831 Hcrit= 230 HgtVar= 250 B/S= 8 W*= 92 ETA48hr:09/02:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 31-AUG-2010 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.0 F Raob est. max temp: 81.9 F Surface elev Temp: 56.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 59.5 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 446 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 55.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 57.9 F Lifted Index @700mb: 10.6 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1038 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2441 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 13077 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 6203 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6383 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 23.5 106 | 45.6 o 11500 21.1 344 18 103 | 45.8 o 11000 19.7 102 | 47.2 o 10500 18.4 100 | 48.5 o 10000 16.9 355 17 99 | 49.7 * o 9500 15.4 97 | 50.8 * o 9000 13.8 96 | 51.9 * o 8500 11.3 357 12 93 | 52.1 * o 8000 7.7 354 12 90 | 51.1 * o 7500 2.5 004 11 84 | 48.6 * o 7000 0.8 83 | 49.6 *o 6500 0.2 82 | 51.6 o 6000 -0.5 81 | 53.6 o 5500 -1.4 036 8 81 | 55.5 . o* 5000 -2.2 025 12 80 | 57.3 . o * 4500 -3.0 021 10 79 | 59.2 . o * 4000 -3.6 78 | 61.2 . o * 3500 -4.2 013 11 78 | 63.3 . o * 3000 -4.6 014 14 77 | 65.5 . o * 2500 -7.6 020 15 74 | 65.2 . o * 2000 -15.8 043 13 66 | 59.8 . o * 1500 -20.9 098 9 61 | 57.3 o * 1000 -24.2 58 | 56.7 o * 500 -25.7 147 6 56 ! 57.9 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 6383 100 1336 5047 14451 0 54 -1094 7477 14451 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 1-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 83.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 83.7 F Surface elev Temp: 77.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 79.6 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 77.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 79.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16134 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1024 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 27.0 176 23 109 | 47.8 o 11500 26.2 169 22 108 | 49.7 o 11000 25.9 158 21 108 | 52.0 o 10500 25.3 148 20 107 | 54.1 o 10000 24.9 136 19 107 | 56.4 * o 9500 24.4 124 18 106 | 58.5 . * o 9000 23.9 113 18 106 | 60.7 . * o 8500 23.8 104 18 106 | 63.3 . * o 8000 23.7 100 18 106 | 65.9 . * o 7500 23.8 096 18 106 | 68.7 . * o 7000 23.8 092 18 106 | 71.3 . * o 6500 23.8 089 17 106 | 74.0 . * o 6000 23.9 086 17 106 | 76.7 . * o 5500 23.2 082 14 105 | 78.7 . * o 5000 20.6 103 | 78.8 . * o 4500 18.0 100 | 78.9 . * o 4000 15.4 97 | 78.9 . * o 3500 12.8 95 | 79.0 . * o 3000 10.2 92 | 79.1 . * o 2500 7.6 90 | 79.2 . * o 2000 5.0 87 | 79.3 . * o 1500 2.5 84 | 79.4 . * o 1000 -0.1 82 | 79.4 . o 500 -2.7 79 ! 79.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 1024 -1 -14446 15470 16825 0 -1 -14446 15470 16825 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html