DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on FRI Mar 12 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3515,4129 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2604 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 926 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 367 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -687 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 94% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 497 ft LCL= 3631 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -10629 ft LCL= 13444 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 8328,8914 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7026 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -1425 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 5050,5724 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4256 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 03/12:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 3515, 4129 Hcrit= 2604 HgtVar= 926 B/S= 7 W*= 367 WxC Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 1295, 3515 Hcrit= 1543 HgtVar= 614 B/S= 5 W*= 258 AVG Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 1866, 3818 Hcrit= 2166 HgtVar= 633 B/S= 6 W*= 315 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 4765, 5390 Hcrit= 4088 HgtVar= 595 B/S=28 W*= 616 MAPSanl:03/12:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 62 > Change@TI=+4: -2203 (-16.6F) MAPS9h:03/13:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 2428, 3794 Hcrit= 2252 HgtVar=1176 B/S= 7 W*= 333 ETAanal:03/12:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 62 > Change@TI=+4: +828 (+4.2F) ETA12hr:03/13:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 8328, 8914 Hcrit= 7026 HgtVar= 571 B/S= 9 W*= 767 ETA24hr:03/13:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 62 > Change@TI=+4: -1425 (-10.6F) ETA36hr:03/14:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 5050, 5724 Hcrit= 4256 HgtVar= 676 B/S= 6 W*= 570 ETA48hr:03/14:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 12-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 62.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 63.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 63.5 F Raob est. max temp: 64.7 F Surface elev Temp: 47.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 49.4 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 538 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 48.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 50.4 F Lifted Index @700mb: 5.3 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1824 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 3426 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 7771 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 5981 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4128 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 21.2 83 | 21.7 o 11500 19.8 228 30 82 | 22.9 o 11000 14.8 236 31 77 | 20.7 o 10500 13.4 248 32 75 | 21.9 . o 10000 12.9 260 33 75 | 24.1 * . o 9500 12.6 75 | 26.5 * . o 9000 12.3 250 28 74 | 28.8 * . o 8500 11.7 74 | 30.9 * . o 8000 11.0 73 | 32.9 * .o 7500 10.4 243 25 72 | 34.9 * .o 7000 9.8 72 | 37.0 * . o 6500 9.2 233 22 71 | 39.1 * . o 6000 7.9 231 22 70 | 40.4 * . o 5500 4.8 225 19 67 | 40.0 * o 5000 3.9 220 16 66 | 41.8 . * o 4500 2.3 213 14 64 | 42.9 . * o 4000 -0.8 211 13 61 | 42.4 . o 3500 -4.1 58 | 41.8 . o * 3000 -4.7 57 | 43.9 . o * 2500 -5.1 210 9 57 | 46.2 . o * 2000 -5.6 204 10 56 | 48.3 . o * 1500 -7.1 189 10 55 | 49.5 . o * 1000 -9.3 160 11 53 | 49.9 . o * 500 -11.6 140 12 50 ! 50.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 4128 94 497 3631 7677 0 81 -1125 5253 7677 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 13-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 62.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 62.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 62.7 F Surface elev Temp: 48.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 49.0 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 48.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 49.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16495 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2815 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 17.1 79 | 16.8 o 11500 16.9 79 | 19.3 o 11000 16.6 79 | 21.7 o 10500 16.4 78 | 24.2 o 10000 16.2 343 27 78 | 26.6 * o 9500 16.0 346 27 78 | 29.1 * o 9000 15.7 348 27 78 | 31.5 * o 8500 15.2 354 26 77 | 33.6 * o 8000 15.0 000 26 77 | 36.1 * o 7500 14.9 003 25 77 | 38.7 * o 7000 14.9 006 24 77 | 41.3 * o 6500 14.8 009 23 77 | 44.0 . * o 6000 14.8 012 21 77 | 46.7 . * o 5500 14.2 014 17 76 | 48.7 . * o 5000 11.5 74 | 48.7 . * o 4500 8.9 71 | 48.7 . * o 4000 6.3 68 | 48.8 . * o 3500 3.6 66 | 48.8 . * o 3000 1.0 63 | 48.8 . *o 2500 -1.7 60 | 48.9 . o* 2000 -4.3 58 | 48.9 . o * 1500 -6.9 55 | 48.9 . o * 1000 -9.6 52 | 49.0 . o * 500 -12.2 50 ! 49.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 2815 -1 -10629 13444 16546 0 -1 -10629 13444 16546 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html