DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3957,4622 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3336 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 750 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 19 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 534 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +847 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 93% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4395 ft LCL= 10665 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 196 ft LCL= 6916 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2150,3131 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1837 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +293 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3423,4625 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3145 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KSNS 021523Z 0215/0312 12005KT P6SM SKC FM022000 31007KT P6SM SKC FM030500 12004KT P6SM SKC FM031000 12006KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at @ /:Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NO RAOB+NWStmax TI - bad raob file size RAOB/tmp.auto.tip_hollister.raob.1 NO RAOB+WxCtmax TI - bad raob file size RAOB/tmp.auto.tip_hollister.raob.1 NO RAOB+AVGtmax TI - bad raob file size RAOB/tmp.auto.tip_hollister.raob.1 NO OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDING SO WILL USE MODEL AM ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS INSTEAD MAPS NWS Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 5769, 6266 Hcrit= 4932 HgtVar= 640 B/S=34 W*= 748 MAPS WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 5673, 6100 Hcrit= 4780 HgtVar= 650 B/S=33 W*= 728 MAPS AVG Tmax=65.5> TI=-4,0@ 5721, 6183 Hcrit= 4856 HgtVar= 645 B/S=33 W*= 738 ETA NWS Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2145, 2979 Hcrit= 1740 HgtVar= 861 B/S= 4 W*= 321 ETA WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 1951, 2770 Hcrit= 1526 HgtVar= 843 B/S= 4 W*= 299 ETA AVG Tmax=65.5> TI=-4,0@ 2041, 2875 Hcrit= 1634 HgtVar= 852 B/S= 4 W*= 310 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 5769, 6266 Hcrit= 4932 HgtVar= 640 B/S=34 W*= 748 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 66 > Change@TI=+4: +2108 (+16.2F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2145, 2979 Hcrit= 1740 HgtVar= 861 B/S= 4 W*= 321 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 66 > Change@TI=+4: -414 (-2.8F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2150, 3131 Hcrit= 1837 HgtVar=1104 B/S=10 W*= 324 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 66 > Change@TI=+4: +293 (+1.7F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 3423, 4625 Hcrit= 3145 HgtVar=1169 B/S= 9 W*= 430 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from OAK MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 66.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 66.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 66.6 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18228 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6270 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 16.2 82 | 19.9 o 11500 16.0 193 7 82 | 22.3 o 11000 15.2 189 6 81 | 24.2 o 10500 14.7 193 5 81 | 26.4 o 10000 13.8 201 4 80 | 28.2 * o 9500 13.4 230 5 79 | 30.5 * o 9000 12.9 235 6 79 | 32.6 * o 8500 10.8 239 7 77 | 33.2 * o 8000 7.5 244 6 74 | 32.6 * o 7500 6.0 276 4 72 | 33.8 * o 7000 4.6 322 5 71 | 35.0 * o 6500 1.4 316 5 67 | 34.4 *o 6000 -1.6 235 6 64 | 34.1 o* 5500 -6.8 268 5 59 | 31.6 o * 5000 -9.6 56 | 31.5 o * 4500 -12.3 54 | 31.4 o * 4000 -15.1 51 | 31.3 o * 3500 -17.9 48 | 31.2 o * 3000 -20.7 45 | 31.1 o * 2500 -23.4 43 | 31.0 o * 2000 -26.2 40 | 30.9 o * 1500 -29.0 37 | 30.8 o * 1000 -31.7 34 | 30.7 o * 500 -34.5 31 ! 30.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 6270 42 -4395 10665 15885 0 38 -5170 11440 15885 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 66.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 67.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 67.6 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12858 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: 6603 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7112 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 7.9 74 | 12.5 11500 6.9 73 | 14.3 11000 6.0 110 28 72 | 16.0 o 10500 5.3 71 | 17.9 .o 10000 4.5 110 29 71 | 19.9 * .o 9500 3.8 111 28 70 | 21.9 * .o 9000 3.0 112 28 69 | 23.7 *. o 8500 2.3 113 28 68 | 25.6 *.o 8000 1.5 115 26 68 | 27.5 .*o 7500 0.7 115 25 67 | 29.4 .*o 7000 -0.2 118 22 66 | 31.2 . o 6500 -1.5 122 19 64 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -2.7 119 11 63 | 34.0 .o * 5500 -3.4 116 9 63 | 36.0 .o * 5000 -6.0 60 | 36.1 .o * 4500 -8.6 57 | 36.1 . o * 4000 -11.2 55 | 36.2 . o * 3500 -13.8 52 | 36.3 . o * 3000 -16.4 50 | 36.3 . o * 2500 -19.0 47 | 36.4 . o * 2000 -21.6 44 | 36.5 . o * 1500 -24.2 42 | 36.5 . o * 1000 -26.8 39 | 36.6 . o * 500 -29.4 37 ! 36.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 7112 99 543 6569 6904 0 93 196 6916 6924 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html