DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on WED Jul 28 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8125,9833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7934 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2452 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 5 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 687 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1169 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 83% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2530 ft LCL= 7295 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5860 ft LCL= 10075 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 819 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 7304,8190 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6485 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +2445 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 7400,8791 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6954 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KELM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 07/28:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 8125, 9833 Hcrit= 7934 HgtVar=2452 B/S= 5 W*= 687 WxC Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 8545,10272 Hcrit= 8329 HgtVar=2259 B/S= 5 W*= 718 AVG Tmax=91.5> TI=-4,0@ 8333,10045 Hcrit= 8126 HgtVar=2359 B/S= 5 W*= 703 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 6800, 7400 Hcrit= 5875 HgtVar= 736 B/S=34 W*= 568 MAPSanl:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -2622 (-17.6F) MAPS10h:07/29:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 9416,10636 Hcrit= 8637 HgtVar=1721 B/S= 8 W*= 733 ETAanal:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +284 (+0.9F) ETA12hr:07/29:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 7304, 8190 Hcrit= 6485 HgtVar=1074 B/S= 4 W*= 582 ETA24hr:07/29:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 83 > Change@TI=+4: +2445 (+11.6F) ETA36hr:07/30:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 77 > TI=-4,0@ 7400, 8791 Hcrit= 6954 HgtVar=1584 B/S= 7 W*= 593 ETA48hr:07/30:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 28-JUL-2010 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 94.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 94.9 F Raob est. max temp: 81.3 F Surface elev Temp: 72.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 75.8 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1804 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 72.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 76.1 F Lifted Index @700mb: 4.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1980 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 4489 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 5585 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 8098 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 19 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 24 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9825 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 13.7 280 29 105 | 37.4 * o 14500 12.1 278 30 103 | 38.4 * o 14000 9.8 276 31 101 | 38.8 * o 13500 6.8 283 30 98 | 38.4 * o 13000 6.5 299 28 98 | 40.8 * o 12500 4.9 96 | 41.9 * o 12000 2.8 285 24 94 | 42.5 * o 11500 2.3 93 | 44.7 *o 11000 1.9 93 | 46.9 *o 10500 1.5 285 25 92 | 49.1 *o 10000 0.4 91 | 50.8 o 9500 -0.8 90 | 52.2 o 9000 -1.9 89 | 53.7 o* 8500 -3.1 88 | 55.2 o * 8000 -4.3 294 23 87 | 56.7 o * 7500 -7.9 283 24 83 | 55.8 o * 7000 -10.8 268 25 80 | 55.6 . o * 6500 -13.8 77 | 55.3 . o * 6000 -15.4 270 25 76 | 56.4 . o * 5500 -16.4 267 25 75 | 57.9 . o * 5000 -16.5 260 25 75 | 60.6 . o * 4500 -17.1 257 25 74 | 62.6 . o * 4000 -17.5 74 | 64.9 . o * 3500 -17.7 73 | 67.4 . o * 3000 -17.8 73 | 69.9 . o * 2500 -18.0 245 25 73 | 72.4 . o * 2000 -18.0 227 19 73 | 75.1 . o * 1500 -20.5 71 ! 75.3 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 9825 83 2530 7295 12980 0 46 -775 10600 12980 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 29-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.3 F Surface elev Temp: 78.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 82.2 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1710 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 78.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 82.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12824 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4215 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 13.7 105 | 37.9 * . o 14500 12.7 198 15 104 | 39.6 * . o 14000 12.4 103 | 42.0 * . o 13500 12.2 103 | 44.4 * . o 13000 11.9 103 | 46.8 * . o 12500 11.7 178 15 103 | 49.3 * . o 12000 11.3 175 14 102 | 51.6 * . o 11500 11.2 173 14 102 | 54.1 * . o 11000 11.1 172 13 102 | 56.7 * . o 10500 10.9 169 12 102 | 59.2 * . o 10000 10.9 169 11 102 | 61.8 *. o 9500 10.7 168 9 102 | 64.3 * o 9000 10.5 170 8 102 | 66.8 . * o 8500 10.3 174 6 101 | 69.3 . * o 8000 10.1 186 4 101 | 71.7 . * o 7500 9.6 223 3 101 | 73.9 . * o 7000 9.1 266 4 100 | 76.0 . * o 6500 8.4 282 8 99 | 78.1 . * o 6000 7.5 282 11 99 | 79.8 . * o 5500 6.7 277 8 98 | 81.7 . * o 5000 4.1 95 | 81.7 . * o 4500 1.5 92 | 81.8 . *o 4000 -1.1 90 | 81.9 . o* 3500 -3.7 87 | 82.0 . o * 3000 -6.3 85 | 82.0 . o * 2500 -8.9 82 | 82.1 . o * 2000 -11.5 79 ! 82.2 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 4215 -1 -5860 10075 11048 819 -1 -5860 10075 11048 819 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html