DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on THU Jul 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5454,7272 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5294 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1818 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 405 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -17 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 99% PM= 87% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 4069 ft LCL= 3201 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1300 ft LCL= 5438 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 258 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 5590,7500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5582 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -856 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 6354,7444 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5771 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KELM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 07/02:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 5454, 7272 Hcrit= 5294 HgtVar=1818 B/S= 9 W*= 405 WxC Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 5454, 7272 Hcrit= 5294 HgtVar=1818 B/S= 9 W*= 405 AVG Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 5454, 7272 Hcrit= 5294 HgtVar=1818 B/S= 9 W*= 405 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 4875, 7000 Hcrit= 5056 HgtVar=1633 B/S= 6 W*= 391 MAPSanl:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: -196 (-0.7F) MAPS10h:07/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 4100, 6050 Hcrit= 4081 HgtVar=1995 B/S=10 W*= 319 ETAanal:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: +161 (+0.6F) ETA12hr:07/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 5590, 7500 Hcrit= 5582 HgtVar=2166 B/S= 5 W*= 438 ETA24hr:07/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 70 > Change@TI=+4: -856 (-2.5F) ETA36hr:07/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 6354, 7444 Hcrit= 5771 HgtVar=1222 B/S= 4 W*= 509 ETA48hr:07/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 2-JUL-2009 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 70.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 73.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 73.3 F Raob est. max temp: 71.8 F Surface elev Temp: 59.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 62.8 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2392 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 57.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 60.5 F Lifted Index @700mb: -1.0 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 909 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2444 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 2742 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 4069 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: 6084 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7270 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 14.5 138 8 85 | 16.7 * . o 14500 14.7 138 9 85 | 19.6 * . o 14000 13.1 83 | 20.7 * . o 13500 11.5 81 | 21.7 * . o 13000 10.2 158 11 80 | 23.1 * . o 12500 9.7 170 12 80 | 25.3 * . o 12000 8.5 79 | 26.8 * .o 11500 7.4 190 12 77 | 28.3 * . o 11000 7.5 78 | 31.1 * .o 10500 7.6 200 12 78 | 33.9 * .o 10000 6.0 210 12 76 | 35.0 * o 9500 4.9 75 | 36.5 * o 9000 3.8 74 | 38.1 * o 8500 2.7 73 | 39.6 *o 8000 1.6 72 | 41.2 *o 7500 0.5 71 | 42.8 o 7000 -0.6 69 | 44.4 o* 6500 -1.7 68 | 46.0 o* 6000 -2.8 67 | 47.5 o * 5500 -3.9 66 | 49.1 o * 5000 -5.0 65 | 50.7 o * 4500 -5.7 290 8 64 | 52.7 o * 4000 -6.5 64 | 54.5 o * 3500 -7.3 63 | 56.4 .o * 3000 -8.1 62 | 58.2 .o * 2500 -9.0 260 9 61 | 60.1 .o * 2000 -9.9 60 | 61.8 .o * 1500 -10.9 179 5 59 ! 63.5 .o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 7270 99 4069 3201 3422 0 83 2241 5029 5311 616 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 70.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 73.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 73.6 F Surface elev Temp: 64.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 67.8 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1400 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1807 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 63.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 67.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 4486 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: 5640 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6738 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 19.2 89 | 21.5 * . o 14500 18.7 244 12 89 | 23.7 * . o 14000 16.2 247 11 86 | 23.9 * . o 13500 14.5 85 | 24.9 * . o 13000 13.3 83 | 26.3 * . o 12500 12.0 275 14 82 | 27.7 * . o 12000 11.0 81 | 29.3 * . o 11500 10.0 80 | 31.0 * . o 11000 8.9 270 15 79 | 32.6 * . o 10500 8.0 78 | 34.4 *. o 10000 7.1 257 16 77 | 36.1 * o 9500 5.1 252 17 75 | 36.8 * o 9000 4.4 250 16 74 | 38.8 .* o 8500 4.1 248 13 74 | 41.2 .* o 8000 3.6 251 12 74 | 43.3 . * o 7500 2.8 256 11 73 | 45.1 . * o 7000 1.3 264 10 71 | 46.3 . o 6500 -1.1 276 9 69 | 46.6 . o 6000 -2.1 285 9 68 | 48.3 . o* 5500 -2.6 290 9 67 | 50.5 .o * 5000 -3.1 289 12 67 | 52.6 .o * 4500 -3.5 287 13 66 | 54.9 . o * 4000 -4.2 285 13 66 | 56.9 .o * 3500 -4.5 286 13 65 | 59.2 . o * 3000 -4.6 290 12 65 | 61.8 . o * 2500 -4.8 293 11 65 | 64.3 . o * 2000 -5.2 297 9 65 ! 66.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 6738 93 2087 4651 4890 0 87 1300 5438 5460 258 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html