DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on FRI May 16 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2200,5843 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3246 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1490 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 3 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 251 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +237 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 72% PM= 78% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1573 ft LCL= 7427 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 189 ft LCL= 6105 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 9250,11350 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9026 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +415 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7500,9875 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7617 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KELM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 05/16:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 2200, 5843 Hcrit= 3246 HgtVar=1490 B/S= 3 W*= 251 WxC Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 2818, 6104 Hcrit= 3878 HgtVar=1796 B/S= 4 W*= 291 AVG Tmax=56.5> TI=-4,0@ 2590, 6000 Hcrit= 3609 HgtVar=1650 B/S= 3 W*= 271 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 2794, 5833 Hcrit= 3615 HgtVar=1667 B/S= 3 W*= 278 MAPSanl:05/16:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: +153 (+1.0F) MAPS11h:05/17:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 3000, 4750 Hcrit= 2609 HgtVar=2285 B/S= 3 W*= 237 ETAanal:05/16:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 56 > Change@TI=+4: +322 (+1.5F) ETA12hr:05/17:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 9250,11350 Hcrit= 9026 HgtVar=2150 B/S= 6 W*= 657 ETA24hr:05/17:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +415 (+1.0F) ETA36hr:05/18:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 7500, 9875 Hcrit= 7617 HgtVar=2437 B/S= 3 W*= 545 ETA48hr:05/18:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 16-MAY-2008 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 56.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 57.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 57.3 F Raob est. max temp: 60.1 F Surface elev Temp: 51.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 52.6 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2438 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 48.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 49.5 F Lifted Index @700mb: 5.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2004 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 6328 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 9990 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 6841 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 16 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5854 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 24.9 119 20 81 | 11.0 * .o 14500 21.1 77 | 9.9 * . o 14000 16.9 047 10 73 | 8.3 * . o 13500 14.9 039 14 71 | 9.1 * . o 13000 14.5 036 16 71 | 11.3 * . o 12500 14.4 037 16 70 | 13.9 .* o 12000 14.7 039 15 71 | 16.8 . * o 11500 14.8 71 | 19.6 . * o 11000 13.6 044 12 70 | 21.1 . * o 10500 11.9 046 11 68 | 22.0 * o 10000 10.9 050 8 67 | 23.8 * o 9500 9.8 66 | 25.3 * o 9000 8.5 64 | 26.7 * o 8500 7.2 038 9 63 | 28.0 . * o 8000 5.2 042 8 61 | 28.7 . * o 7500 4.2 60 | 30.4 . * o 7000 3.6 60 | 32.4 . * o 6500 2.9 079 7 59 | 34.4 . * o 6000 0.5 102 10 56 | 34.7 . o 5500 -1.1 104 10 55 | 35.7 . o* 5000 -1.4 109 11 55 | 38.2 . o* 4500 -1.5 110 12 55 | 40.7 . o* 4000 -1.6 54 | 43.3 . o* 3500 -1.9 103 16 54 | 45.7 . o* 3000 -2.6 100 17 53 | 47.7 . o * 2500 -3.7 096 16 52 | 49.2 . o * 2000 -4.2 52 ! 51.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 5854 72 -1573 7427 11460 0 68 -2066 7920 11460 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 17-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 56.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 57.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 57.8 F Surface elev Temp: 44.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 46.7 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1437 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1824 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 44.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 46.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 5532 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 23 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6294 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 21.4 77 | 8.0 * o 14500 20.4 76 | 9.6 * o 14000 19.3 308 9 75 | 11.2 * o 13500 18.4 74 | 13.0 * o 13000 17.5 73 | 14.7 * o 12500 16.6 73 | 16.5 * o 12000 15.6 345 7 72 | 18.2 * .o 11500 14.6 71 | 19.9 * .o 11000 13.5 009 13 70 | 21.5 * .o 10500 12.2 68 | 22.8 * o 10000 10.6 016 15 67 | 23.9 * o 9500 8.9 009 17 65 | 24.8 * .o 9000 6.9 013 24 63 | 25.6 * .o 8500 5.5 61 | 26.8 * . o 8000 4.1 60 | 28.1 *. o 7500 2.9 010 30 59 | 29.5 .* o 7000 1.9 010 31 58 | 31.2 . *o 6500 0.6 010 31 57 | 32.6 . *o 6000 -0.9 010 31 55 | 33.8 . o* 5500 -2.5 011 31 54 | 34.9 . o * 5000 -3.6 011 29 52 | 36.5 . o * 4500 -4.5 012 28 52 | 38.2 . o * 4000 -5.4 013 27 51 | 40.0 . o * 3500 -6.2 014 24 50 | 41.8 . o * 3000 -7.4 017 18 49 | 43.3 . o * 2500 -8.9 013 14 47 | 44.5 . o * 2000 -10.2 005 10 46 ! 45.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 6294 86 1527 4767 6169 0 78 189 6105 6252 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html