DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 94% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1503 ft LCL= 3695 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3178 ft LCL= 5801 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 4884,5795 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4478 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KELM 021510Z 0215/0312 35009KT P6SM OVC018 FM022200 34008KT P6SM BKN025 FM030600 29006KT P6SM SCT025 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NO RAOB+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. WxC Tmax= 38 > TI=-4,0@ 4724, 5203 Hcrit= 3883 HgtVar=1011 B/S=10 W*= 380 NO RAOB+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 38 > TI=-4,0@ 2413, 3125 Hcrit= 1710 HgtVar= 714 B/S= 8 W*= 171 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 38 > Change@TI=+4: -302 (-3.4F) MAPS10h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 38 > TI=-4,0@ 3416, 4080 Hcrit= 2648 HgtVar= 653 B/S= 5 W*= 257 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 38 > Change@TI=+4: +1851 (+15.6F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam WxC Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 5157, 6184 Hcrit= 4844 HgtVar=1280 B/S= 4 W*= 493 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm WxC Tmax= 42 > Change@TI=+4: -224 (-1.0F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 37 > TI=-4,0@ 4884, 5795 Hcrit= 4478 HgtVar= 930 B/S= 4 W*= 452 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+WxCtmax *************** 2-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 38.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 38.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 38.9 F Raob est. max temp: 41.1 F Surface elev Temp: 28.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 29.3 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2313 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 25.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 26.2 F Lifted Index @700mb: 10.2 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2096 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2936 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 3132 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 4309 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5198 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 29.5 256 30 67 | -2.7 * . o 14500 29.4 253 31 67 | -0.1 .* o 14000 28.7 67 | 1.8 .* o 13500 28.0 66 | 3.8 .* o 13000 27.3 267 32 65 | 5.8 * o 12500 26.4 272 30 64 | 7.6 * o 12000 25.1 63 | 8.9 * o 11500 23.7 62 | 10.2 * o 11000 22.3 60 | 11.5 . * o 10500 21.0 288 23 59 | 12.8 . * o 10000 18.4 56 | 12.9 * o 9500 16.0 295 21 54 | 13.2 * o 9000 14.5 285 22 52 | 14.3 . * o 8500 12.5 287 19 50 | 15.0 . * o 8000 10.8 289 16 49 | 16.0 . * o 7500 9.2 300 16 47 | 17.1 . * o 7000 7.3 45 | 17.8 . * o 6500 5.2 43 | 18.4 . * o 6000 3.1 324 11 41 | 19.0 . * o 5500 1.9 328 10 40 | 20.5 . * o 5000 -1.3 333 9 37 | 20.0 .o* 4500 -6.2 340 8 32 | 17.7 .o * 4000 -6.9 31 | 19.6 .o * 3500 -7.7 30 | 21.5 .o * 3000 -8.5 30 | 23.4 .o * 2500 -9.2 345 7 29 | 25.4 . o * 2000 -9.5 29 | 27.8 . o * 1500 -9.5 28 ! 30.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 5198 94 1503 3695 7888 0 91 -163 5361 7888 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 38.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 39.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 39.4 F Surface elev Temp: 33.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 34.7 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1710 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 33.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 34.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 6878 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2623 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 32.3 126 16 70 | 0.7 * o 14500 31.4 69 | 2.5 * o 14000 30.7 69 | 4.5 * o. 13500 30.0 68 | 6.5 * o 13000 29.3 67 | 8.4 * o 12500 28.6 137 18 67 | 10.3 * o 12000 27.6 66 | 12.0 * o 11500 26.5 65 | 13.6 * o 11000 25.5 143 23 64 | 15.3 * o 10500 24.9 63 | 17.3 * o 10000 24.3 129 26 62 | 19.4 * .o 9500 23.2 125 26 61 | 21.0 * .o 9000 22.5 124 25 60 | 23.0 * o 8500 21.6 123 25 60 | 24.7 * o 8000 20.6 124 25 59 | 26.4 * o 7500 19.7 125 25 58 | 28.2 * o 7000 18.6 125 23 57 | 29.7 * o 6500 17.5 122 20 56 | 31.3 * o 6000 16.5 109 15 54 | 33.0 * o 5500 15.0 101 10 53 | 34.1 * o 5000 12.4 50 | 34.2 * o 4500 9.8 48 | 34.3 * o 4000 7.2 45 | 34.3 * o 3500 4.6 43 | 34.4 * o 3000 2.0 40 | 34.5 *o 2500 -0.6 37 | 34.6 o* 2000 -3.2 35 ! 34.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 2623 -1 -3178 5801 5711 0 -1 -3178 5801 5711 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html