DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on THU Jul 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2788,3305 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2095 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1353 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 10 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 257 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -291 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +6 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 66% PM= 32% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6286 ft LCL= 9621 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -7165 ft LCL= 10241 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 11 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2804,3400 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2068 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +871 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2791,4187 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2575 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 07/02:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 2817, 3337 Hcrit= 2216 HgtVar=1344 B/S=10 W*= 271 MAPS WxC Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 3722, 6277 Hcrit= 4644 HgtVar=7023 B/S=20 W*= 440 MAPS AVG Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 3202, 4000 Hcrit= 2799 HgtVar=3300 B/S=14 W*= 322 ETA NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 2760, 3274 Hcrit= 1974 HgtVar=1362 B/S=11 W*= 243 ETA WxC Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 3750, 6375 Hcrit= 4635 HgtVar=0625 B/S=19 W*= 419 ETA AVG Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 3112, 4181 Hcrit= 2826 HgtVar=3152 B/S=14 W*= 307 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 2817, 3337 Hcrit= 2216 HgtVar=1344 B/S=10 W*= 271 MAPSanl:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: -258 (-1.5F) MAPS9h:07/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 2760, 3274 Hcrit= 1974 HgtVar=1362 B/S=11 W*= 243 ETAanal:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: -325 (-1.9F) ETA12hr:07/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 2804, 3400 Hcrit= 2068 HgtVar=1600 B/S=45 W*= 248 ETA24hr:07/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: +871 (+4.5F) ETA36hr:07/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 2791, 4187 Hcrit= 2575 HgtVar=4563 B/S=48 W*= 269 ETA48hr:07/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 87.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 89.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 89.3 F Surface elev Temp: 56.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 59.0 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1925 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 56.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 59.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11758 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3335 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.1 105 | 7.4 19500 16.9 104 | 8.8 19000 15.7 201 23 103 | 10.3 18500 15.0 102 | 12.3 18000 14.4 101 | 14.4 17500 13.8 101 | 16.4 o 17000 13.1 190 21 100 | 18.4 o 16500 12.6 100 | 20.6 o 16000 12.2 99 | 22.9 o 15500 11.8 99 | 25.2 o 15000 11.5 98 | 27.5 * o 14500 11.1 98 | 29.7 * o 14000 10.7 98 | 32.0 * o 13500 10.3 194 19 97 | 34.3 * o 13000 9.7 97 | 36.4 * o 12500 9.2 196 18 96 | 38.6 * o 12000 9.2 201 17 96 | 41.2 * o 11500 9.0 208 16 96 | 43.7 * o 11000 8.8 216 12 96 | 46.2 * o 10500 8.3 225 9 95 | 48.4 * o 10000 8.1 246 6 95 | 50.8 * o 9500 8.1 292 3 95 | 53.5 * o 9000 7.8 332 3 95 | 55.8 * o 8500 7.3 326 5 94 | 58.1 * o 8000 7.2 348 2 94 | 60.6 * o 7500 7.2 118 3 94 | 63.3 * o 7000 6.7 127 4 94 | 65.5 * o 6500 6.4 129 5 93 | 67.8 * o 6000 5.5 127 4 93 | 69.6 * o 5500 4.9 127 4 92 | 71.7 * o 5000 4.7 159 4 92 | 74.2 * o 4500 3.6 193 3 91 | 75.7 * o 4000 3.0 227 1 90 | 77.8 * o 3500 1.2 003 3 88 | 78.7 . *o 3000 -2.5 012 5 85 | 77.6 . o * 2500 -6.6 024 5 80 | 76.2 . o * 2000 -18.9 029 7 68 | 66.6 . o * 1500 -27.2 048 4 60 ! 60.9 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 3335 66 -6286 9621 14367 0 28 -8158 11493 14367 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 87.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 89.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 89.5 F Surface elev Temp: 85.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 87.6 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1925 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 85.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 87.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10742 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3076 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.2 200 19 105 | 7.9 19500 16.4 196 18 103 | 8.7 19000 13.0 178 18 100 | 8.1 18500 12.5 99 | 10.2 18000 12.2 99 | 12.5 17500 11.9 99 | 14.9 17000 11.5 99 | 17.3 o 16500 11.2 98 | 19.6 o 16000 10.9 98 | 22.0 o 15500 10.6 98 | 24.3 o 15000 10.3 97 | 26.7 * o 14500 10.0 97 | 29.1 * o 14000 9.8 153 7 97 | 31.5 * o 13500 9.7 97 | 34.1 * o 13000 9.6 97 | 36.7 * o 12500 9.6 142 6 97 | 39.3 * o 12000 9.5 134 6 97 | 42.0 * o 11500 9.4 120 6 96 | 44.5 * o 11000 9.0 098 7 96 | 46.8 * o 10500 8.7 084 9 96 | 49.1 * o 10000 8.5 079 10 96 | 51.6 . * o 9500 8.2 077 9 95 | 54.0 . * o 9000 8.0 070 7 95 | 56.5 . * o 8500 7.6 047 5 95 | 58.7 . * o 8000 7.3 004 4 94 | 61.2 . * o 7500 7.0 339 6 94 | 63.5 * o 7000 6.7 330 7 94 | 65.9 * o 6500 6.5 326 9 93 | 68.3 * o 6000 6.2 324 9 93 | 70.6 * o 5500 5.8 322 11 93 | 73.0 * o 5000 5.0 318 11 92 | 74.9 * o 4500 4.4 313 14 91 | 76.9 * o 4000 3.3 311 14 90 | 78.5 . * o 3500 2.6 307 15 90 | 80.5 . * o 3000 -0.5 291 14 87 | 80.1 . o* 2500 -0.4 287 14 87 | 82.8 . o 2000 -0.3 285 12 87 | 85.6 . o 1500 -1.4 283 7 86 ! 87.1 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 3076 32 -7092 10168 12753 9 32 -7165 10241 12753 11 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html