DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4146,4872 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3319 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 927 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 17 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 440 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +1060 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 94% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4469 ft LCL= 11046 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 589 ft LCL= 7634 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2583,3454 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2067 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +315 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3684,4750 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3353 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KUKI 021141Z 0212/0312 00000KT 6SM BR SCT002 FM021600 00000KT P6SM SCT250 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 5942, 6578 Hcrit= 5313 HgtVar= 855 B/S=30 W*= 658 MAPS WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 6413, 7100 Hcrit= 5789 HgtVar=1096 B/S=32 W*= 718 MAPS AVG Tmax=63.5> TI=-4,0@ 6155, 6812 Hcrit= 5529 HgtVar=1121 B/S=31 W*= 687 ETA NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 2351, 3166 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=1000 B/S= 4 W*= 223 ETA WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 2958, 3888 Hcrit= 2601 HgtVar=1112 B/S= 5 W*= 293 ETA AVG Tmax=63.5> TI=-4,0@ 2645, 3479 Hcrit= 2170 HgtVar=1104 B/S= 5 W*= 256 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 5942, 6578 Hcrit= 5313 HgtVar= 855 B/S=30 W*= 658 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 62 > Change@TI=+4: +2470 (+15.3F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 2351, 3166 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=1000 B/S= 4 W*= 223 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 62 > Change@TI=+4: -349 (-2.8F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 2583, 3454 Hcrit= 2067 HgtVar=1046 B/S= 6 W*= 246 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 62 > Change@TI=+4: +315 (+2.2F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 3684, 4750 Hcrit= 3353 HgtVar=1083 B/S= 8 W*= 352 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 62.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 62.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 62.6 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17333 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6577 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 20.1 82 |-17.1 19500 19.1 81 |-15.4 19000 18.1 197 30 80 |-13.8 18500 17.7 197 28 80 |-11.5 18000 17.4 79 | -9.1 o 17500 17.2 79 | -6.7 o 17000 16.9 79 | -4.3 o 16500 16.6 79 | -1.9 o 16000 16.4 78 | 0.5 o 15500 16.1 78 | 2.9 o 15000 15.8 78 | 5.3 * o 14500 15.6 78 | 7.7 * o 14000 15.3 77 | 10.1 * o 13500 15.0 200 13 77 | 12.5 * o 13000 14.8 77 | 15.0 * o 12500 14.6 77 | 17.4 * o 12000 14.4 76 | 19.9 * o 11500 14.2 193 7 76 | 22.3 * o 11000 13.3 189 6 75 | 24.2 . * o 10500 12.9 193 5 75 | 26.4 . * o 10000 12.0 201 4 74 | 28.2 . * o 9500 11.6 230 5 74 | 30.5 . * o 9000 11.1 235 6 73 | 32.6 . * o 8500 9.0 239 7 71 | 33.2 . * o 8000 5.7 244 6 68 | 32.6 . * o 7500 4.2 276 4 66 | 33.8 . * o 7000 2.7 322 5 65 | 35.0 . *o 6500 -0.5 316 5 62 | 34.4 . o 6000 -3.4 235 6 59 | 34.1 . o * 5500 -8.6 268 5 53 | 31.6 . o * 5000 -11.4 51 | 31.5 . o * 4500 -14.2 48 | 31.4 . o * 4000 -17.0 45 | 31.2 . o * 3500 -19.8 42 | 31.1 . o * 3000 -22.6 39 | 31.0 . o * 2500 -25.4 37 | 30.8 . o * 2000 -28.2 34 | 30.7 . o * 1500 -31.0 272 4 31 ! 30.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 6577 42 -4469 11046 15992 0 35 -5375 11952 15992 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 62.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 63.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 63.6 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11971 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: 7222 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8223 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.9 81 |-17.3 19500 18.8 120 14 81 |-14.8 19000 15.8 115 17 78 |-15.1 18500 15.3 77 |-12.9 18000 14.8 115 18 77 |-10.7 17500 14.3 76 | -8.6 o 17000 13.8 76 | -6.4 o 16500 13.3 75 | -4.2 .o 16000 12.6 114 19 75 | -2.3 .o 15500 11.5 73 | -0.7 .o 15000 10.4 72 | 0.9 * o 14500 9.5 114 27 72 | 2.7 * o 14000 8.9 71 | 4.7 * o 13500 8.2 70 | 6.7 * o 13000 7.6 70 | 8.8 * .o 12500 6.9 112 27 69 | 10.8 * .o 12000 6.0 68 | 12.5 * .o 11500 5.1 67 | 14.3 * o 11000 4.2 110 28 66 | 16.0 * o 10500 3.4 65 | 17.9 * o 10000 2.7 110 29 65 | 19.9 *o 9500 2.0 111 28 64 | 21.9 *.o 9000 1.2 112 28 63 | 23.7 *o 8500 0.4 113 28 62 | 25.6 .o 8000 -0.3 115 26 62 | 27.5 .o 7500 -1.2 115 25 61 | 29.4 .o* 7000 -2.0 118 22 60 | 31.2 .o * 6500 -3.4 122 19 59 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -4.6 119 11 57 | 34.0 o * 5500 -5.2 116 9 57 | 36.0 .o * 5000 -7.8 54 | 36.1 o * 4500 -10.4 52 | 36.2 o * 4000 -13.0 49 | 36.3 o * 3500 -15.6 46 | 36.3 o * 3000 -18.2 44 | 36.4 .o * 2500 -20.8 41 | 36.5 .o * 2000 -23.4 39 | 36.6 .o * 1500 -25.9 115 6 36 ! 36.7 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 8223 99 1130 7093 7458 0 94 589 7634 7640 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html