DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on FRI May 16 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6147,8096 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 6165 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1292 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 523 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +619 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 56% PM= 29% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5113 ft LCL= 13640 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6019 ft LCL= 14262 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 5071,8285 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6248 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +363 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4558,6200 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4562 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 05/16:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 6545, 8527 Hcrit= 6547 HgtVar=1051 B/S= 4 W*= 549 MAPS WxC Tmax= 100 > TI=-4,0@ 8235, 9325 Hcrit= 7297 HgtVar=1063 B/S= 4 W*= 612 MAPS AVG Tmax=98.5> TI=-4,0@ 7357, 8944 Hcrit= 6900 HgtVar=1029 B/S= 4 W*= 567 ETA NWS Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 5750, 7666 Hcrit= 5783 HgtVar=1534 B/S=10 W*= 498 ETA WxC Tmax= 100 > TI=-4,0@ 7227, 8866 Hcrit= 6846 HgtVar=1334 B/S=10 W*= 568 ETA AVG Tmax=98.5> TI=-4,0@ 6545, 8333 Hcrit= 6323 HgtVar=1367 B/S=10 W*= 520 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 6545, 8527 Hcrit= 6547 HgtVar=1051 B/S= 4 W*= 549 MAPSanl:05/16:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 97 > Change@TI=+4: +305 (+1.1F) MAPS11h:05/17:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 5750, 7666 Hcrit= 5783 HgtVar=1534 B/S=10 W*= 498 ETAanal:05/16:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 97 > Change@TI=+4: +934 (+3.1F) ETA12hr:05/17:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 5071, 8285 Hcrit= 6248 HgtVar=2115 B/S=18 W*= 507 ETA24hr:05/17:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 97 > Change@TI=+4: +363 (+1.0F) ETA36hr:05/18:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 94 > TI=-4,0@ 4558, 6200 Hcrit= 4562 HgtVar=2188 B/S=13 W*= 431 ETA48hr:05/18:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 16-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 97.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 99.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 99.4 F Surface elev Temp: 63.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 65.3 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1870 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 63.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 65.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13906 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 27 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8527 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 19.7 117 | 19.0 19500 19.3 100 16 116 | 21.3 19000 18.9 116 | 23.6 18500 18.5 116 | 25.9 18000 18.2 104 16 115 | 28.2 o 17500 17.8 115 | 30.5 o 17000 17.4 114 | 32.8 o 16500 17.0 114 | 35.1 o 16000 16.7 114 | 37.4 o 15500 16.4 111 17 113 | 39.8 o 15000 16.2 108 17 113 | 42.3 * o 14500 15.2 109 20 112 | 43.9 * o 14000 14.3 115 20 111 | 45.6 * o 13500 13.3 125 23 110 | 47.4 * o 13000 12.0 109 | 48.8 * o 12500 10.9 137 27 108 | 50.3 * o 12000 10.0 141 27 107 | 52.1 * o 11500 9.1 148 28 106 | 53.9 * o 11000 8.4 152 28 105 | 55.8 * o 10500 7.4 152 29 104 | 57.5 * o 10000 5.6 154 31 103 | 58.3 * o 9500 3.7 155 31 101 | 59.1 * o 9000 1.7 156 32 99 | 59.8 . *o 8500 -0.1 152 32 97 | 60.7 . o 8000 -1.8 144 34 95 | 61.6 . o* 7500 -2.3 137 35 95 | 63.8 . o* 7000 -3.0 133 35 94 | 65.8 . o * 6500 -4.1 132 33 93 | 67.4 . o * 6000 -4.7 132 30 92 | 69.5 . o * 5500 -5.1 130 27 92 | 71.7 . o * 5000 -5.3 128 26 92 | 74.2 . o * 4500 -5.4 120 25 92 | 76.7 . o * 4000 -5.5 109 25 91 | 79.3 . o * 3500 -5.5 101 25 91 | 82.0 . o * 3000 -6.7 089 28 90 | 83.4 . o * 2500 -9.6 079 31 87 | 83.2 . o * 2000 -26.2 065 19 71 | 69.3 . o * 1500 -32.2 061 4 65 ! 66.0 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 8527 56 -5113 13640 19651 0 31 -6326 14853 19651 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 17-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 97.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 98.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 98.9 F Surface elev Temp: 88.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 90.7 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1870 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 88.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 90.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14701 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8243 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 17.7 115 | 16.7 19500 17.2 131 10 114 | 18.9 19000 16.7 114 | 21.1 18500 16.2 113 | 23.2 18000 15.7 113 | 25.4 17500 15.1 112 | 27.5 o 17000 14.6 112 | 29.7 o 16500 14.1 120 11 111 | 31.8 o 16000 13.6 111 | 34.0 o 15500 13.1 110 | 36.1 o 15000 12.5 126 11 109 | 38.2 * o 14500 11.8 132 11 109 | 40.2 * o 14000 11.1 142 10 108 | 42.2 * o 13500 10.0 147 10 107 | 43.8 * o 13000 9.0 155 10 106 | 45.4 * o 12500 7.9 105 | 47.0 * o 12000 6.9 162 12 104 | 48.7 * o 11500 6.2 163 13 103 | 50.6 * o 11000 5.4 159 14 102 | 52.5 * o 10500 5.1 163 12 102 | 54.9 * o 10000 4.5 163 12 101 | 57.0 * o 9500 3.3 160 12 100 | 58.4 * o 9000 2.0 156 12 99 | 59.8 *o 8500 0.7 152 11 98 | 61.1 . o 8000 -0.6 151 10 96 | 62.5 . o 7500 -1.7 149 9 95 | 64.2 . o* 7000 -3.0 155 7 94 | 65.5 . o * 6500 -4.2 174 6 93 | 67.0 . o * 6000 -4.9 194 7 92 | 68.9 . o * 5500 -5.8 206 8 91 | 70.7 . o * 5000 -6.4 215 9 91 | 72.8 . o * 4500 -6.5 223 12 91 | 75.4 . o * 4000 -6.6 225 12 90 | 77.9 . o * 3500 -6.7 228 13 90 | 80.5 . o * 3000 -6.6 228 13 90 | 83.3 . o * 2500 -6.5 233 13 90 | 86.0 . o * 2000 -6.3 232 12 91 | 88.9 . o * 1500 -7.6 232 9 89 ! 90.3 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 8243 33 -4942 13185 18344 0 29 -6019 14262 18344 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html