DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on WED Jul 28 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4177,5208 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3762 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1342 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 25 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 385 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1857 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +5 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2025 ft LCL= 6864 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 2565,3476 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1914 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -433 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 3060,4107 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2698 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 07/28:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 4092, 4833 Hcrit= 3435 HgtVar= 767 B/S=32 W*= 360 MAPS WxC Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 5037, 5857 Hcrit= 4421 HgtVar=1093 B/S=41 W*= 461 MAPS AVG Tmax=83.5> TI=-4,0@ 4557, 5314 Hcrit= 3912 HgtVar=1219 B/S=37 W*= 410 ETA NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 4263, 5583 Hcrit= 4090 HgtVar=1917 B/S=18 W*= 411 ETA WxC Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 6000, 8111 Hcrit= 6305 HgtVar=2139 B/S=21 W*= 573 ETA AVG Tmax=83.5> TI=-4,0@ 4958, 6666 Hcrit= 5045 HgtVar=2278 B/S=17 W*= 485 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 4092, 4833 Hcrit= 3435 HgtVar= 767 B/S=32 W*= 360 MAPSanl:07/28:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 81.3 > 81.0 pm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -2846 (-19.0F) MAPS9h:07/29:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 4263, 5583 Hcrit= 4090 HgtVar=1917 B/S=18 W*= 411 ETAanal:07/28:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -869 (-3.1F) ETA12hr:07/29:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2565, 3476 Hcrit= 1914 HgtVar=1607 B/S=21 W*= 234 ETA24hr:07/29:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -433 (-2.4F) ETA36hr:07/30:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 3060, 4107 Hcrit= 2698 HgtVar=1469 B/S=13 W*= 291 ETA48hr:07/30:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 28-Jul-2010 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 81.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 84.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 84.9 F Surface elev Temp: 62.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.0 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 62.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11041 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 2 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4839 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 38.0 119 | 23.1 . o 19500 36.3 180 6 117 | 24.0 . o 19000 34.5 116 | 25.0 . o 18500 32.8 173 9 114 | 25.9 . o 18000 31.7 113 | 27.5 . o 17500 30.8 112 | 29.2 . o 17000 29.8 111 | 30.9 . o 16500 28.8 110 | 32.6 . o 16000 27.9 163 11 109 | 34.3 . o 15500 27.2 108 | 36.4 . o 15000 26.7 108 | 38.5 * . o 14500 26.1 107 | 40.6 * . o 14000 25.5 106 | 42.6 * . o 13500 24.9 156 9 106 | 44.7 * . o 13000 24.3 105 | 46.8 * . o 12500 23.7 105 | 48.9 * . o 12000 23.3 154 7 104 | 51.1 * . o 11500 23.2 173 8 104 | 53.7 * . o 11000 22.2 189 5 103 | 55.4 * . o 10500 21.2 155 2 102 | 57.1 * . o 10000 21.0 096 3 102 | 59.5 * . o 9500 20.8 055 5 102 | 62.0 * . o 9000 20.5 019 6 101 | 64.4 * . o 8500 19.3 017 7 100 | 65.9 * . o 8000 15.0 017 8 96 | 64.2 * . o 7500 12.8 339 7 94 | 64.7 * . o 7000 9.3 323 8 90 | 63.9 * . o 6500 6.3 344 6 87 | 63.6 *. o 6000 5.6 359 4 87 | 65.5 .* o 5500 3.6 353 3 85 | 66.1 .* o 5000 0.9 82 | 66.1 . *o 4500 -1.8 79 | 66.1 . o* 4000 -4.5 76 | 66.1 . o * 3500 -7.2 74 | 66.1 . o * 3000 -9.9 71 | 66.0 . o * 2500 -12.6 68 | 66.0 . o * 2000 -15.3 66 | 66.0 . o * 1500 -17.9 028 2 63 ! 66.0 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 4839 -1 -2025 6864 11487 0 -1 -2025 6864 11487 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 29-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 81.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.6 F Surface elev Temp: 81.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 85.6 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 81.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 85.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10559 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.7 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 37.8 119 | 23.6 .o 19500 36.8 274 13 118 | 25.2 .o 19000 35.4 116 | 26.5 .o 18500 33.9 115 | 27.7 . o 18000 32.4 270 15 113 | 28.9 .o 17500 31.7 113 | 30.9 . o 17000 31.1 112 | 32.9 . o 16500 30.5 111 | 35.0 . o 16000 29.9 111 | 37.0 . o 15500 29.3 110 | 39.1 . o 15000 28.6 110 | 41.1 * . o 14500 28.0 109 | 43.2 * . o 14000 26.8 222 11 108 | 44.6 * . o 13500 24.6 192 16 106 | 45.1 * . o 13000 24.3 105 | 47.5 * . o 12500 24.3 188 16 105 | 50.1 * . o 12000 24.1 187 17 105 | 52.6 * . o 11500 23.7 185 17 105 | 54.9 * . o 11000 23.6 183 16 105 | 57.5 * . o 10500 23.5 179 16 104 | 60.0 * . o 10000 23.3 174 15 104 | 62.5 * . o 9500 23.1 173 14 104 | 65.0 * . o 9000 23.0 173 13 104 | 67.6 * . o 8500 22.9 173 12 104 | 70.2 * . o 8000 22.8 176 10 104 | 72.7 * . o 7500 22.7 181 9 104 | 75.2 * . o 7000 22.6 189 8 104 | 77.8 * . o 6500 22.5 196 7 103 | 80.4 *. o 6000 22.4 200 6 103 | 83.0 *. o 5500 21.7 203 5 103 | 85.0 * o 5000 19.1 100 | 85.1 . * o 4500 16.5 98 | 85.1 . * o 4000 13.9 95 | 85.2 . * o 3500 11.3 92 | 85.3 . * o 3000 8.7 90 | 85.3 . * o 2500 6.1 87 | 85.4 . * o 2000 3.5 85 | 85.5 . * o 1500 0.9 201 4 82 ! 85.6 . *o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html