DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on THU Jul 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 9300,12850 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 10286 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2766 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 45 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 803 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -573 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 48% PM= 49% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1956 ft LCL= 15965 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1395 ft LCL= 13884 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 9666,13045 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10494 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -627 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 9666,12964 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10435 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 07/02:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 9850,14000 Hcrit=11182 HgtVar=1900 B/S=18 W*= 797 MAPS WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 6166, 9850 Hcrit= 7384 HgtVar=4150 B/S=14 W*= 562 MAPS AVG Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 8958,12500 Hcrit= 9752 HgtVar=2409 B/S=18 W*= 689 ETA NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 8750,11700 Hcrit= 9391 HgtVar=3633 B/S=73 W*= 809 ETA WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 5214, 8750 Hcrit= 6774 HgtVar=2950 B/S=57 W*= 638 ETA AVG Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 6800, 9937 Hcrit= 7839 HgtVar=4063 B/S=64 W*= 715 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 9850,14000 Hcrit=11182 HgtVar=1900 B/S=18 W*= 797 MAPSanl:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 103 > Change@TI=+4: -784 (-1.5F) MAPS9h:07/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 8750,11700 Hcrit= 9391 HgtVar=3633 B/S=73 W*= 809 ETAanal:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 103 > Change@TI=+4: -362 (-0.6F) ETA12hr:07/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 9666,13045 Hcrit=10494 HgtVar=1871 B/S=25 W*= 830 ETA24hr:07/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 103 > Change@TI=+4: -627 (-1.3F) ETA36hr:07/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 104 > TI=-4,0@ 9666,12964 Hcrit=10435 HgtVar=1464 B/S=21 W*= 833 ETA48hr:07/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:103.0 F Forecast max VirtT:105.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT:106.2 F Surface elev Temp: 73.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 77.2 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 259 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 980 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 75.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 78.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11717 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 21 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 14009 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 4.2 107 | 28.4 15500 3.2 106 | 30.1 15000 2.2 163 15 105 | 31.8 14500 1.1 104 | 33.3 14000 -0.0 156 12 103 | 34.9 13500 -0.8 102 | 36.8 13000 -1.4 102 | 38.8 12500 -2.0 146 11 101 | 40.9 12000 -2.0 122 13 101 | 43.6 11500 -2.4 114 13 101 | 45.9 11000 -2.8 100 | 48.1 10500 -3.2 097 11 100 | 50.4 * 10000 -3.7 079 8 99 | 52.6 o * 9500 -4.7 049 3 98 | 54.3 o * 9000 -5.9 051 2 97 | 55.7 o * 8500 -7.6 027 2 95 | 56.7 o * 8000 -7.8 320 2 95 | 59.2 o * 7500 -7.8 325 2 95 | 61.8 o * 7000 -7.8 328 4 95 | 64.5 o * 6500 -7.8 338 5 95 | 67.2 o * 6000 -8.2 338 4 95 | 69.5 o * 5500 -8.7 353 4 94 | 71.6 o * 5000 -9.2 007 5 94 | 73.8 o * 4500 -9.4 008 5 94 | 76.2 o * 4000 -9.7 359 5 93 | 78.7 o * 3500 -10.7 326 6 92 | 80.3 o * 3000 -13.0 317 11 90 | 80.7 o * 2500 -14.4 321 14 89 | 82.0 o * 2000 -16.6 326 17 86 | 82.4 o * 1500 -21.3 329 19 82 | 80.4 . o * 1000 -25.7 343 21 77 ! 78.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@14009 48 -1956 15965 21118 0 22 -3407 17416 21118 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:103.0 F Forecast max VirtT:105.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT:105.3 F Surface elev Temp: 98.4 F Surface elev VirtT:100.6 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 259 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1017 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 96.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 99.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13269 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12489 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 7.4 194 23 110 | 31.0 15500 6.1 109 | 32.3 15000 4.4 193 24 107 | 33.3 14500 2.9 106 | 34.5 14000 1.6 105 | 35.8 13500 0.6 193 24 104 | 37.5 13000 0.4 103 | 40.0 12500 0.0 193 19 103 | 42.3 12000 -1.3 192 13 102 | 43.7 11500 -2.4 196 10 101 | 45.2 11000 -3.0 204 10 100 | 47.3 10500 -3.6 213 11 99 | 49.4 * 10000 -4.0 217 11 99 | 51.6 o * 9500 -4.4 229 12 99 | 53.9 o * 9000 -4.7 237 12 98 | 56.3 o * 8500 -4.9 243 10 98 | 58.7 o * 8000 -5.0 248 9 98 | 61.3 o * 7500 -5.0 253 7 98 | 64.0 o * 7000 -5.0 259 6 98 | 66.7 o * 6500 -4.9 267 6 98 | 69.4 o * 6000 -5.0 278 5 98 | 72.0 o * 5500 -5.0 288 4 98 | 74.7 o * 5000 -5.0 299 4 98 | 77.3 o * 4500 -5.0 315 4 98 | 80.0 o * 4000 -4.9 327 5 98 | 82.8 o * 3500 -4.9 336 5 98 | 85.5 o * 3000 -4.8 341 5 98 | 88.2 o * 2500 -4.8 346 6 98 | 90.9 o * 2000 -4.7 352 6 98 | 93.6 o * 1500 -4.7 354 6 98 | 96.4 o * 1000 -4.6 356 6 98 ! 99.1 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@12489 57 -478 12967 16355 0 49 -1395 13884 16355 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html