DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5061,5799 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4462 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1046 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 21 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 599 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +968 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 95% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4583 ft LCL= 11434 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1083 ft LCL= 8282 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 3833,5187 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3657 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +248 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 5100,6815 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5039 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KNLC 0215/0315 VRB06KT 2400 BR OVC005 QNH3018INS BECMG 0219/0220 8000 HZ SKC QNH3008INS BECMG 0313/0315 4800 BR BKN010 QNH3014INS T17/0223Z T03/0314Z AMD 021535Z ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 6206, 6848 Hcrit= 5506 HgtVar=1167 B/S=34 W*= 759 MAPS WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 5730, 6206 Hcrit= 4916 HgtVar= 642 B/S=31 W*= 681 MAPS AVG Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 5923, 6545 Hcrit= 5226 HgtVar= 812 B/S=32 W*= 721 ETA NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 3916, 4750 Hcrit= 3418 HgtVar= 925 B/S= 8 W*= 439 ETA WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 3000, 3916 Hcrit= 2576 HgtVar= 834 B/S= 6 W*= 343 ETA AVG Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 3500, 4333 Hcrit= 3005 HgtVar= 857 B/S= 7 W*= 391 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 6206, 6848 Hcrit= 5506 HgtVar=1167 B/S=34 W*= 759 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +2491 (+12.4F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 3916, 4750 Hcrit= 3418 HgtVar= 925 B/S= 8 W*= 439 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -555 (-3.2F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 3833, 5187 Hcrit= 3657 HgtVar=1224 B/S=38 W*= 422 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +248 (+1.1F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 5100, 6815 Hcrit= 5039 HgtVar=1010 B/S=15 W*= 510 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 67.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 67.6 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18447 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6851 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 14.6 82 | 0.5 15500 14.3 81 | 2.9 15000 14.1 81 | 5.3 14500 13.8 81 | 7.7 14000 13.5 81 | 10.1 13500 13.3 200 13 80 | 12.5 13000 13.0 80 | 15.0 12500 12.8 80 | 17.4 12000 12.6 80 | 19.9 o 11500 12.4 193 7 79 | 22.3 o 11000 11.6 189 6 79 | 24.2 o 10500 11.1 193 5 78 | 26.4 o 10000 10.2 201 4 77 | 28.2 * o 9500 9.8 230 5 77 | 30.5 * o 9000 9.3 235 6 76 | 32.6 * o 8500 7.2 239 7 74 | 33.2 * o 8000 3.9 244 6 71 | 32.6 * o 7500 2.4 276 4 69 | 33.8 * o 7000 1.0 322 5 68 | 35.0 *o 6500 -2.3 316 5 65 | 34.4 o * 6000 -5.2 235 6 62 | 34.1 o * 5500 -10.4 268 5 57 | 31.6 o * 5000 -13.2 54 | 31.5 o * 4500 -16.0 51 | 31.4 o * 4000 -18.8 48 | 31.3 o * 3500 -21.5 45 | 31.2 o * 3000 -24.3 43 | 31.1 o * 2500 -27.1 40 | 30.9 o * 2000 -29.9 37 | 30.8 o * 1500 -32.7 34 | 30.7 o * 1000 -35.5 32 ! 30.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 6851 42 -4583 11434 16143 0 33 -5624 12475 16143 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 68.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 68.6 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13081 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: 7785 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9365 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 10.8 114 19 78 | -2.3 15500 9.7 77 | -0.7 15000 8.6 76 | 0.9 14500 7.8 114 27 75 | 2.7 14000 7.1 74 | 4.7 13500 6.5 73 | 6.7 13000 5.8 73 | 8.8 12500 5.2 112 27 72 | 10.8 12000 4.2 71 | 12.5 11500 3.3 70 | 14.3 11000 2.4 110 28 69 | 16.0 10500 1.6 69 | 17.9 10000 0.9 110 29 68 | 19.9 o 9500 0.2 111 28 67 | 21.9 .o 9000 -0.6 112 28 66 | 23.7 .o 8500 -1.4 113 28 66 | 25.6 . o* 8000 -2.1 115 26 65 | 27.5 .o * 7500 -3.0 115 25 64 | 29.4 . o * 7000 -3.8 118 22 63 | 31.2 . o * 6500 -5.2 122 19 62 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -6.4 119 11 61 | 34.0 o * 5500 -7.0 116 9 60 | 36.0 .o * 5000 -9.6 57 | 36.1 .o * 4500 -12.2 55 | 36.2 .o * 4000 -14.8 52 | 36.2 .o * 3500 -17.4 50 | 36.3 .o * 3000 -20.0 47 | 36.4 .o * 2500 -22.6 44 | 36.4 .o * 2000 -25.2 42 | 36.5 . o * 1500 -27.8 39 | 36.6 . o * 1000 -30.4 37 ! 36.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 9365 99 1783 7582 7923 0 95 1083 8282 8309 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html