DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on FRI May 16 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7848,10196 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7903 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1295 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 653 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +1810 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 50% PM= 28% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1893 ft LCL= 11530 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5371 ft LCL= 16158 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 5687,8625 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6644 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -1242 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 5562,8000 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6109 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 05/16:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 9071, 9642 Hcrit= 7487 HgtVar= 733 B/S= 7 W*= 655 MAPS WxC Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 9357, 9928 Hcrit= 7822 HgtVar=1148 B/S= 7 W*= 710 MAPS AVG Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@ 9214, 9785 Hcrit= 7655 HgtVar= 907 B/S= 7 W*= 682 ETA NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 6625,10750 Hcrit= 8319 HgtVar=1857 B/S=12 W*= 652 ETA WxC Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@ 9416,11727 Hcrit= 9276 HgtVar=1594 B/S=13 W*= 739 ETA AVG Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@ 8666,11250 Hcrit= 8810 HgtVar=1714 B/S=12 W*= 696 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 9071, 9642 Hcrit= 7487 HgtVar= 733 B/S= 7 W*= 655 MAPSanl:05/16:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 101 > Change@TI=+4: +2685 (+17.5F) MAPS11h:05/17:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 6625,10750 Hcrit= 8319 HgtVar=1857 B/S=12 W*= 652 ETAanal:05/16:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 101 > Change@TI=+4: +935 (+2.1F) ETA12hr:05/17:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 5687, 8625 Hcrit= 6644 HgtVar=4625 B/S=16 W*= 622 ETA24hr:05/17:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 101 > Change@TI=+4: -1242 (-2.1F) ETA36hr:05/18:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@ 5562, 8000 Hcrit= 6109 HgtVar=2700 B/S= 8 W*= 592 ETA48hr:05/18:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 16-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:101.0 F Forecast max VirtT:104.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT:104.6 F Surface elev Temp: 78.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 82.1 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 288 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 725 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 78.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 82.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10762 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 16 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9637 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 12.0 113 | 34.5 15500 11.6 058 23 113 | 36.7 15000 11.4 112 | 39.2 14500 11.2 060 24 112 | 41.6 14000 10.8 061 24 112 | 43.9 13500 10.2 062 25 111 | 46.0 13000 9.3 110 | 47.8 12500 8.4 060 22 109 | 49.5 12000 7.7 053 22 109 | 51.5 11500 7.1 049 27 108 | 53.6 11000 5.8 058 26 107 | 54.9 o 10500 4.5 076 25 105 | 56.3 o 10000 2.5 082 24 104 | 57.1 * o 9500 -1.0 146 35 100 | 56.2 o* 9000 -4.5 155 46 97 | 55.4 o * 8500 -7.0 160 42 94 | 55.5 o * 8000 -8.4 166 33 93 | 56.8 o * 7500 -9.3 164 19 92 | 58.6 o * 7000 -9.5 157 10 91 | 61.0 o * 6500 -9.6 157 4 91 | 63.6 o * 6000 -9.6 296 1 91 | 66.3 o * 5500 -10.1 311 6 91 | 68.5 o * 5000 -10.5 330 7 90 | 70.7 o * 4500 -10.6 331 9 90 | 73.3 o * 4000 -10.5 337 13 90 | 76.0 o * 3500 -10.5 344 13 90 | 78.7 o * 3000 -10.8 353 14 90 | 81.1 o * 2500 -11.8 356 15 89 | 82.8 o * 2000 -13.2 345 15 88 | 84.0 . o * 1500 -15.5 335 12 85 | 84.4 . o * 1000 -18.8 311 6 82 ! 83.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 9637 50 -1893 11530 17600 0 31 -4003 13640 17600 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 17-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:101.0 F Forecast max VirtT:102.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT:102.3 F Surface elev Temp: 99.4 F Surface elev VirtT:100.8 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 288 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 741 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 99.3 F Lowest elev VirtT:100.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15681 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10787 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 12.9 114 | 33.5 15500 11.8 061 29 113 | 35.1 15000 10.4 111 | 36.4 14500 8.7 067 28 110 | 37.4 14000 6.6 108 | 37.9 13500 4.6 073 30 106 | 38.7 13000 3.2 104 | 39.9 12500 2.1 079 29 103 | 41.4 12000 1.2 081 28 102 | 43.3 11500 0.7 084 26 102 | 45.4 11000 0.2 086 24 101 | 47.6 10500 -0.3 091 22 101 | 49.8 10000 -0.8 100 | 51.9 o 9500 -1.4 087 15 100 | 54.0 o * 9000 -1.7 085 10 99 | 56.3 o* 8500 -1.9 081 7 99 | 58.8 o* 8000 -1.9 077 5 99 | 61.5 o * 7500 -1.9 069 3 99 | 64.1 o* 7000 -1.9 053 2 99 | 66.9 o * 6500 -2.0 016 1 99 | 69.4 o * 6000 -1.9 320 2 99 | 72.2 o* 5500 -1.9 297 2 99 | 74.9 o * 5000 -2.0 296 3 99 | 77.5 o* 4500 -1.9 281 4 99 | 80.2 o * 4000 -1.8 275 4 99 | 82.9 o * 3500 -1.9 269 5 99 | 85.6 o* 3000 -1.8 264 5 99 | 88.3 o * 2500 -1.8 268 5 99 | 91.0 o* 2000 -1.8 257 5 99 | 93.7 o * 1500 -1.8 255 5 99 | 96.4 o* 1000 -1.7 252 5 99 ! 99.1 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@10787 29 -5032 15819 21132 0 28 -5371 16158 21132 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html