DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on SAT Mar 13 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5483,6263 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4759 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 522 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 565 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2702 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 49% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3847 ft LCL= 9461 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -11377 ft LCL= 13115 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 3764,4875 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3394 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -1318 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 3516,4156 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2786 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 03/13:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 5274, 5614 Hcrit= 4354 HgtVar= 175 B/S=18 W*= 599 MAPS WxC Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 5435, 5657 Hcrit= 4405 HgtVar= 176 B/S=16 W*= 612 MAPS AVG Tmax=60.5> TI=-4,0@ 5354, 5635 Hcrit= 4378 HgtVar= 176 B/S=18 W*= 605 ETA NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 5692, 6913 Hcrit= 5165 HgtVar= 869 B/S= 6 W*= 531 ETA WxC Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 6076, 7130 Hcrit= 5394 HgtVar= 870 B/S= 7 W*= 560 ETA AVG Tmax=60.5> TI=-4,0@ 5884, 7021 Hcrit= 5281 HgtVar= 870 B/S= 7 W*= 546 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 5274, 5614 Hcrit= 4354 HgtVar= 175 B/S=18 W*= 599 MAPSanl:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: -4521 (-75.1F) MAPS9h:03/14:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 5692, 6913 Hcrit= 5165 HgtVar= 869 B/S= 6 W*= 531 ETAanal:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: -883 (-4.2F) ETA12hr:03/14:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 3764, 4875 Hcrit= 3394 HgtVar= 817 B/S= 7 W*= 404 ETA24hr:03/14:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: -1318 (-7.5F) ETA36hr:03/15:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 3516, 4156 Hcrit= 2786 HgtVar= 625 B/S=22 W*= 360 ETA48hr:03/15:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 13-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 60.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 60.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 60.6 F Surface elev Temp: 28.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 28.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16439 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5614 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 31.0 91 | 10.0 15500 29.8 90 | 11.4 o 15000 28.5 304 16 89 | 12.8 o 14500 27.1 87 | 14.1 o 14000 25.8 305 13 86 | 15.5 o 13500 24.7 85 | 17.0 o 13000 23.6 309 9 84 | 18.6 o 12500 22.6 83 | 20.3 o 12000 21.8 82 | 22.2 o 11500 21.0 81 | 24.0 o 11000 20.2 310 7 80 | 25.9 o 10500 19.7 80 | 28.0 o 10000 19.3 304 6 79 | 30.3 * o 9500 18.9 301 6 79 | 32.6 * o 9000 17.9 268 5 78 | 34.2 * o 8500 15.8 228 6 76 | 34.8 . * o 8000 13.7 207 6 74 | 35.4 . * o 7500 12.4 169 6 72 | 36.8 . * o 7000 11.5 137 8 72 | 38.6 . * o 6500 11.2 133 11 71 | 40.9 . * o 6000 8.8 115 11 69 | 41.2 . * o 5500 -2.6 163 11 57 | 32.5 . o * 5000 -5.7 54 | 32.1 . o * 4500 -8.7 51 | 31.7 . o * 4000 -11.8 48 | 31.3 . o * 3500 -14.9 45 | 30.9 . o * 3000 -18.0 42 | 30.5 . o * 2500 -21.0 39 | 30.1 . o * 2000 -24.1 36 | 29.6 . o * 1500 -27.2 33 | 29.2 . o * 1000 -30.3 30 ! 28.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 5614 49 -3847 9461 18531 0 38 -5188 10802 18531 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 14-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 60.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 60.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 60.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.6 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14252 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1738 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 25.6 235 20 86 | 4.8 15500 24.2 84 | 6.2 15000 23.3 83 | 7.9 14500 22.3 243 11 82 | 9.6 14000 22.0 82 | 12.0 o 13500 21.9 82 | 14.5 o 13000 21.8 82 | 17.1 o 12500 21.6 82 | 19.6 o 12000 21.5 81 | 22.1 o 11500 21.3 81 | 24.7 . o 11000 21.2 81 | 27.2 . o 10500 21.0 81 | 29.7 . o 10000 20.9 163 9 81 | 32.2 * . o 9500 20.8 162 9 81 | 34.8 *. o 9000 20.8 157 11 81 | 37.5 * o 8500 20.6 153 12 81 | 40.0 . * o 8000 20.5 149 13 81 | 42.5 . * o 7500 20.4 146 15 80 | 45.1 . * o 7000 20.3 143 15 80 | 47.7 . * o 6500 20.3 138 16 80 | 50.4 . * o 6000 20.3 135 15 80 | 53.1 . * o 5500 19.7 132 13 80 | 55.1 . * o 5000 17.1 77 | 55.1 . * o 4500 14.4 74 | 55.2 . * o 4000 11.8 72 | 55.2 . * o 3500 9.2 69 | 55.3 . * o 3000 6.6 67 | 55.4 . * o 2500 4.0 64 | 55.4 . * o 2000 1.4 61 | 55.5 . *o 1500 -1.2 59 | 55.5 . o* 1000 -3.9 56 ! 55.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 1738 -1 -11377 13115 13677 0 -1 -11377 13115 13677 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html