DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on TUE Aug 31 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6727,7529 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5931 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1320 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 16 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 682 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2178 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 67% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5129 ft LCL= 12022 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -12592 ft LCL= 15470 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 3400,5450 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3748 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: -196 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 1865,3250 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1649 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 08/31:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@ 6240, 6893 Hcrit= 5428 HgtVar=1687 B/S=17 W*= 672 MAPS WxC Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 6055, 6742 Hcrit= 5284 HgtVar=1530 B/S=17 W*= 653 MAPS AVG Tmax=88.5> TI=-4,0@ 6148, 6818 Hcrit= 5356 HgtVar=1682 B/S=17 W*= 662 ETA NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@ 7214, 8166 Hcrit= 6434 HgtVar= 953 B/S=16 W*= 692 ETA WxC Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 6976, 7928 Hcrit= 6208 HgtVar= 952 B/S=15 W*= 667 ETA AVG Tmax=88.5> TI=-4,0@ 7095, 8047 Hcrit= 6322 HgtVar= 953 B/S=15 W*= 680 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@ 6240, 6893 Hcrit= 5428 HgtVar=1687 B/S=17 W*= 672 MAPSanl:08/31:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: -2885 (-11.1F) MAPS10h:09/01:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@ 7214, 8166 Hcrit= 6434 HgtVar= 953 B/S=16 W*= 692 ETAanal:08/31:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: -1471 (-7.1F) ETA12hr:09/01:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@ 3400, 5450 Hcrit= 3748 HgtVar=1025 B/S=18 W*= 400 ETA24hr:09/01:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 90.5 > 89.0 WEDpm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: -196 (-0.9F) ETA36hr:09/02:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 1865, 3250 Hcrit= 1649 HgtVar=3000 B/S=15 W*= 250 ETA48hr:09/02:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 31-Aug-2010 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 89.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 91.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 91.3 F Surface elev Temp: 53.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15977 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6893 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 20.2 245 26 109 | 29.9 15500 19.0 108 | 31.3 15000 17.7 107 | 32.7 14500 16.8 249 25 106 | 34.4 14000 16.2 105 | 36.5 13500 15.6 105 | 38.6 13000 15.0 104 | 40.7 12500 14.4 103 | 42.8 o 12000 13.8 242 23 103 | 44.8 o 11500 13.5 241 23 102 | 47.2 o 11000 12.9 227 22 102 | 49.2 o 10500 11.8 218 21 101 | 50.9 o 10000 10.5 198 20 99 | 52.2 * o 9500 9.3 178 19 98 | 53.6 * o 9000 6.6 161 17 96 | 53.6 * o 8500 3.5 142 13 93 | 53.3 * o 8000 2.4 109 10 91 | 54.8 . * o 7500 1.5 075 10 90 | 56.6 *o 7000 0.7 050 16 90 | 58.5 *o 6500 -2.6 045 19 86 | 57.8 o * 6000 -5.3 031 18 84 | 57.8 o * 5500 -6.8 113 6 82 | 59.0 . o * 5000 -9.8 79 | 58.6 . o * 4500 -12.9 76 | 58.3 . o * 4000 -15.9 73 | 57.9 . o * 3500 -18.9 70 | 57.5 . o * 3000 -22.0 67 | 57.1 . o * 2500 -25.0 64 | 56.8 . o * 2000 -28.1 61 | 56.4 . o * 1500 -31.1 58 | 56.0 . o * 1000 -34.2 55 ! 55.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 6893 67 -5129 12022 19118 0 47 -5852 12745 19118 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 1-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 89.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 90.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 90.7 F Surface elev Temp: 77.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 79.6 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 77.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 79.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17690 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2878 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 17.8 107 | 26.9 15500 17.7 107 | 29.5 15000 17.7 107 | 32.1 14500 17.6 107 | 34.7 14000 17.6 107 | 37.3 13500 17.5 107 | 39.9 13000 17.5 106 | 42.6 o 12500 17.4 106 | 45.2 o 12000 17.4 176 23 106 | 47.8 o 11500 16.6 169 22 106 | 49.7 o 11000 16.2 158 21 105 | 52.0 o 10500 15.7 148 20 105 | 54.1 o 10000 15.3 136 19 104 | 56.4 * o 9500 14.7 124 18 104 | 58.5 * o 9000 14.3 113 18 103 | 60.7 * o 8500 14.2 104 18 103 | 63.3 * o 8000 14.1 100 18 103 | 65.9 * o 7500 14.2 096 18 103 | 68.7 * o 7000 14.2 092 18 103 | 71.3 * o 6500 14.2 089 17 103 | 74.0 * o 6000 14.3 086 17 103 | 76.7 * o 5500 13.5 082 14 103 | 78.7 * o 5000 10.9 100 | 78.8 * o 4500 8.4 97 | 78.9 * o 4000 5.8 95 | 79.0 * o 3500 3.2 92 | 79.1 * o 3000 0.6 90 | 79.1 o 2500 -2.0 87 | 79.2 o * 2000 -4.5 84 | 79.3 o * 1500 -7.1 82 | 79.4 o * 1000 -9.7 79 ! 79.5 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 2878 -1 -12592 15470 16825 0 -1 -12592 15470 16825 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html