DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2399,3937 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2328 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1482 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 10 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 338 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1203 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4853 ft LCL= 7476 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 4025,5026 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3426 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -3125 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1523,1988 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 720 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 1910, 2625 Hcrit= 1208 HgtVar= 714 B/S=12 W*= 267 MAPS WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 1553, 2267 Hcrit= 588 HgtVar= 715 B/S=10 W*= 228 MAPS AVG Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 1732, 2446 Hcrit= 963 HgtVar= 714 B/S=11 W*= 248 ETA NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2888, 5250 Hcrit= 3448 HgtVar=2250 B/S= 9 W*= 409 ETA WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 1920, 4055 Hcrit= 2349 HgtVar=2382 B/S=10 W*= 331 ETA AVG Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2333, 4625 Hcrit= 2880 HgtVar=2325 B/S= 9 W*= 369 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 1910, 2625 Hcrit= 1208 HgtVar= 714 B/S=12 W*= 267 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 79.0 > 67.0 pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -1234 (-9.7F) MAPS10h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2888, 5250 Hcrit= 3448 HgtVar=2250 B/S= 9 W*= 409 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -1172 (-3.8F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 4025, 5026 Hcrit= 3426 HgtVar=1026 B/S=40 W*= 444 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 75 > Change@TI=+4: -3125 (-15.5F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 1523, 1988 Hcrit= 720 HgtVar=1262 B/S=14 W*= 240 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 69.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 69.4 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10578 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2623 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 47.3 114 | 21.2 * . o 17500 46.6 114 | 23.2 * . o 17000 45.9 113 | 25.2 * . o 16500 45.2 248 25 112 | 27.2 * . o 16000 44.3 111 | 29.0 * . o 15500 43.5 110 | 30.8 * . o 15000 42.6 110 | 32.6 * . o 14500 41.8 248 21 109 | 34.4 * . o 14000 41.0 108 | 36.3 * . o 13500 40.1 107 | 38.1 * . o 13000 39.3 106 | 40.0 * . o 12500 38.4 251 16 105 | 41.7 * . o 12000 37.3 104 | 43.3 * . o 11500 36.3 255 15 103 | 45.0 * . o 11000 36.2 253 15 103 | 47.5 * . o 10500 36.1 252 15 103 | 50.1 * . o 10000 35.7 247 16 103 | 52.5 * . o 9500 34.6 242 17 102 | 53.9 * . o 9000 33.1 234 18 100 | 55.2 * . o 8500 32.9 225 17 100 | 57.6 * . o 8000 32.0 210 14 99 | 59.4 * . o 7500 28.9 194 13 96 | 58.9 * . o 7000 26.7 179 12 94 | 59.5 * . o 6500 25.6 178 14 93 | 61.1 * . o 6000 23.8 175 15 91 | 61.9 * . o 5500 16.2 182 9 83 | 57.0 * . o 5000 13.4 80 | 56.8 * . o 4500 10.6 78 | 56.7 *. o 4000 7.8 75 | 56.5 .* o 3500 4.9 72 | 56.4 . * o 3000 2.1 69 | 56.2 . *o 2500 -0.7 66 | 56.1 . o 2000 -3.5 63 | 56.0 . o * 1500 -6.3 61 | 55.8 . o * 1000 -9.1 58 | 55.7 . o * 500 -12.0 55 ! 55.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 2623 -1 -4853 7476 13430 0 -1 -4853 7476 13430 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 80.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 80.9 F Surface elev Temp: 79.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 80.9 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 79.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 80.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14880 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 35.9 103 | 21.3 * . o 17500 34.5 283 38 101 | 22.5 * . o 17000 31.8 283 33 99 | 22.5 * . o 16500 30.8 98 | 24.2 * . o 16000 30.7 98 | 26.7 * . o 15500 30.5 98 | 29.3 * . o 15000 30.4 97 | 31.8 * . o 14500 30.2 97 | 34.3 * . o 14000 30.1 97 | 36.8 * . o 13500 29.9 97 | 39.4 * . o 13000 29.8 97 | 41.9 * . o 12500 29.6 97 | 44.4 * . o 12000 29.5 235 15 96 | 46.9 * . o 11500 29.4 234 14 96 | 49.5 * . o 11000 29.3 226 13 96 | 52.1 * . o 10500 29.2 218 12 96 | 54.7 * . o 10000 29.1 208 11 96 | 57.2 *. o 9500 29.1 197 10 96 | 59.9 * o 9000 29.0 184 9 96 | 62.4 .* o 8500 28.9 172 9 96 | 65.0 . * o 8000 28.8 161 9 96 | 67.6 . * o 7500 28.8 151 9 96 | 70.3 . * o 7000 28.8 144 10 96 | 72.9 . * o 6500 28.8 137 10 96 | 75.6 . * o 6000 28.8 131 10 96 | 78.3 . * o 5500 28.1 125 9 95 | 80.3 . * o 5000 25.5 92 | 80.3 . * o 4500 22.9 90 | 80.4 . * o 4000 20.2 87 | 80.4 . * o 3500 17.6 85 | 80.5 . * o 3000 15.0 82 | 80.5 . * o 2500 12.4 79 | 80.6 . * o 2000 9.8 77 | 80.7 . * o 1500 7.1 74 | 80.7 . * o 1000 4.5 72 | 80.8 . * o 500 1.9 69 ! 80.8 . *o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html