DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on FRI Mar 12 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3301,4328 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2948 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 953 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 16 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 442 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +444 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6880 ft LCL= 10784 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -12086 ft LCL= 13202 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 8428,11000 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8763 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -2403 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7666,8387 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6619 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 03/12:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 3281, 3906 Hcrit= 2691 HgtVar= 625 B/S=20 W*= 452 MAPS WxC Tmax= 52 > TI=-4,0@ 3125, 3750 Hcrit= 2541 HgtVar= 625 B/S=19 W*= 433 MAPS AVG Tmax=52.5> TI=-4,0@ 3203, 3828 Hcrit= 2615 HgtVar= 625 B/S=20 W*= 442 ETA NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 3321, 4750 Hcrit= 3206 HgtVar=1281 B/S=13 W*= 433 ETA WxC Tmax= 52 > TI=-4,0@ 2964, 4423 Hcrit= 2888 HgtVar=1277 B/S=12 W*= 402 ETA AVG Tmax=52.5> TI=-4,0@ 3142, 4593 Hcrit= 3054 HgtVar=1273 B/S=13 W*= 418 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 3281, 3906 Hcrit= 2691 HgtVar= 625 B/S=20 W*= 452 MAPSanl:03/12:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 53 > Change@TI=+4: -2272 (-17.5F) MAPS10h:03/13:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 3321, 4750 Hcrit= 3206 HgtVar=1281 B/S=13 W*= 433 ETAanal:03/12:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 53 > Change@TI=+4: +3161 (+13.6F) ETA12hr:03/13:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 8428,11000 Hcrit= 8763 HgtVar=2750 B/S= 8 W*= 837 ETA24hr:03/13:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 57 > Change@TI=+4: -2403 (-4.8F) ETA36hr:03/14:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 7666, 8387 Hcrit= 6619 HgtVar= 628 B/S=11 W*= 785 ETA48hr:03/14:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 12-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 53.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 53.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 53.5 F Surface elev Temp: 28.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 29.4 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 28.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 29.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16079 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3904 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 35.9 356 54 89 | -6.1 * o 17500 35.3 355 53 88 | -4.0 * o 17000 34.5 87 | -2.2 * o 16500 33.6 87 | -0.3 * o 16000 32.8 353 50 86 | 1.5 * o 15500 31.2 84 | 2.5 * o 15000 29.3 353 46 82 | 3.4 . * o 14500 27.4 352 44 80 | 4.1 . * o 14000 25.8 79 | 5.2 . * o 13500 24.5 78 | 6.6 . * o 13000 23.4 351 39 76 | 8.1 . * o 12500 22.7 76 | 10.2 . * o 12000 22.1 75 | 12.2 . * o 11500 21.5 74 | 14.2 . * o 11000 20.8 74 | 16.2 . * o 10500 20.3 350 37 73 | 18.4 . * o 10000 19.8 347 37 73 | 20.6 . * o 9500 19.4 72 | 22.8 . * o 9000 18.9 343 37 72 | 25.1 . * o 8500 18.2 338 29 71 | 27.0 . * o 8000 17.5 332 26 70 | 28.9 . * o 7500 17.0 323 23 70 | 31.1 . * o 7000 15.6 317 22 69 | 32.4 . * o 6500 14.3 306 20 67 | 33.8 . * o 6000 13.6 298 16 67 | 35.8 . * o 5500 10.2 290 8 63 | 35.0 . * o 5000 7.0 60 | 34.5 . * o 4500 3.8 57 | 34.0 . * o 4000 0.6 54 | 33.4 . o 3500 -2.6 50 | 32.9 . o* 3000 -5.8 47 | 32.4 . o * 2500 -9.0 44 | 31.9 . o * 2000 -12.2 41 | 31.3 . o * 1500 -15.4 38 | 30.8 . o * 1000 -18.6 34 | 30.3 . o * 500 -21.8 31 ! 29.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 3904 -1 -6880 10784 17515 0 -1 -6880 10784 17515 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 13-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 53.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 53.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 53.7 F Surface elev Temp: 47.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 48.5 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 47.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 48.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14375 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1116 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 40.1 93 | -1.7 * . o 17500 39.3 352 34 92 | 0.2 * . o 17000 38.3 91 | 1.9 * o 16500 37.3 90 | 3.5 .* o 16000 36.3 355 33 89 | 5.1 . * o 15500 35.0 88 | 6.6 . * o 15000 33.8 357 31 87 | 8.0 * o 14500 32.6 86 | 9.5 * o 14000 31.3 84 | 10.9 * o 13500 29.7 347 30 83 | 12.0 . * o 13000 27.2 328 30 80 | 12.1 . * o 12500 26.9 80 | 14.5 . * o 12000 26.6 80 | 16.8 . * o 11500 26.3 79 | 19.2 . * o 11000 25.9 79 | 21.5 . * o 10500 25.6 79 | 23.9 .* o 10000 25.3 344 28 78 | 26.2 .* o 9500 25.0 347 28 78 | 28.6 * o 9000 24.6 350 28 78 | 30.9 * o 8500 24.1 357 27 77 | 33.1 * o 8000 24.0 001 26 77 | 35.6 . * o 7500 23.9 005 26 77 | 38.2 . * o 7000 23.8 008 25 77 | 40.8 . * o 6500 23.8 012 23 77 | 43.5 . * o 6000 23.8 014 21 77 | 46.1 . * o 5500 23.1 016 17 76 | 48.1 . * o 5000 20.5 73 | 48.2 . * o 4500 17.9 71 | 48.2 . * o 4000 15.2 68 | 48.2 . * o 3500 12.6 66 | 48.3 . * o 3000 9.9 63 | 48.3 . * o 2500 7.3 60 | 48.3 . * o 2000 4.7 58 | 48.4 . * o 1500 2.0 55 | 48.4 . *o 1000 -0.6 52 | 48.4 . o 500 -3.2 50 ! 48.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 1116 -1 -12086 13202 16197 0 -1 -12086 13202 16197 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html