DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on THU Jul 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2900,4200 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2645 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1206 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 375 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1553 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 79% PM= 41% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4342 ft LCL= 8749 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5311 ft LCL= 7725 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1750,2593 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1186 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -1417 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 1487,1975 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 137 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 07/02:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 3000, 4400 Hcrit= 2773 HgtVar=1100 B/S= 7 W*= 376 MAPS WxC Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 2078, 3545 Hcrit= 1903 HgtVar=1063 B/S= 6 W*= 303 MAPS AVG Tmax=79.5> TI=-4,0@ 2464, 4100 Hcrit= 2444 HgtVar= 834 B/S= 7 W*= 344 ETA NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2800, 4000 Hcrit= 2518 HgtVar=1312 B/S=17 W*= 374 ETA WxC Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 1945, 3125 Hcrit= 1702 HgtVar=1169 B/S=14 W*= 306 ETA AVG Tmax=79.5> TI=-4,0@ 2312, 3583 Hcrit= 2125 HgtVar=1139 B/S=15 W*= 340 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 3000, 4400 Hcrit= 2773 HgtVar=1100 B/S= 7 W*= 376 MAPSanl:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -1324 (-6.2F) MAPS10h:07/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2800, 4000 Hcrit= 2518 HgtVar=1312 B/S=17 W*= 374 ETAanal:07/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 81 > Change@TI=+4: -1783 (-8.3F) ETA12hr:07/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 80 > TI=-4,0@ 1750, 2593 Hcrit= 1186 HgtVar=1335 B/S=12 W*= 266 ETA24hr:07/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 80 > Change@TI=+4: -1417 (-7.9F) ETA36hr:07/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 80 > TI=-4,0@ 1487, 1975 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar=1525 B/S=39 W*= 218 ETA48hr:07/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 81.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 82.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 83.3 F Surface elev Temp: 53.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 295 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 8808 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 1 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4407 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 24.4 105 | 11.9 * o 17500 23.8 105 | 13.9 * o 17000 23.1 104 | 15.9 * o 16500 22.5 103 | 18.0 . * o 16000 21.8 269 22 103 | 20.0 . * o 15500 21.3 102 | 22.1 . * o 15000 20.8 102 | 24.3 . * o 14500 20.3 101 | 26.4 . * o 14000 19.8 101 | 28.6 . * o 13500 19.2 100 | 30.7 . * o 13000 18.7 280 16 100 | 32.9 . * o 12500 18.1 99 | 35.0 . * o 12000 17.6 99 | 37.1 . * o 11500 17.0 98 | 39.2 . * o 11000 16.4 288 11 97 | 41.2 . * o 10500 15.6 293 10 97 | 43.1 . * o 10000 14.5 301 8 96 | 44.7 . * o 9500 13.6 313 6 95 | 46.5 . * o 9000 12.8 314 5 94 | 48.3 . * o 8500 12.1 323 5 93 | 50.4 . * o 8000 10.7 336 5 92 | 51.7 . * o 7500 8.9 90 | 52.5 . * o 7000 7.3 352 5 88 | 53.5 * o 6500 5.9 000 5 87 | 54.8 . * o 6000 4.8 030 4 86 | 56.4 . * o 5500 4.0 075 3 85 | 58.2 . * o 5000 2.8 093 2 84 | 59.7 . *o 4500 0.5 082 4 81 | 60.1 . *o 4000 -2.0 075 6 79 | 60.3 . o* 3500 -3.1 071 9 78 | 61.8 . o * 3000 -4.0 052 11 77 | 63.7 . o * 2500 -5.4 047 11 76 | 64.9 . o * 2000 -7.3 029 12 74 | 65.7 . o * 1500 -8.8 015 10 72 | 66.9 . o * 1000 -12.7 351 8 68 | 65.6 . o * 500 -17.5 335 8 63 ! 63.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 4407 79 -4342 8749 15501 0 32 -5963 10370 15501 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 81.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 83.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 84.0 F Surface elev Temp: 72.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 75.1 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 295 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 72.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 75.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 7172 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2414 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 24.2 248 26 105 | 12.3 * o 17500 23.3 104 | 14.1 * o 17000 22.5 103 | 15.9 . * o 16500 21.6 250 18 103 | 17.7 . * o 16000 20.8 102 | 19.5 . * o 15500 19.9 101 | 21.4 . * o 15000 19.1 100 | 23.2 . * o 14500 18.3 251 13 99 | 25.1 . * o 14000 17.8 99 | 27.3 . * o 13500 17.4 98 | 29.5 . * o 13000 16.9 98 | 31.8 . * o 12500 16.5 98 | 34.0 . * o 12000 16.1 97 | 36.2 . * o 11500 15.6 234 9 97 | 38.4 . * o 11000 15.0 96 | 40.5 . * o 10500 14.4 231 9 95 | 42.6 . * o 10000 13.9 231 8 95 | 44.7 . * o 9500 13.1 230 7 94 | 46.6 . * o 9000 12.4 221 6 93 | 48.6 . * o 8500 11.4 207 6 92 | 50.3 . * o 8000 10.4 201 6 91 | 51.9 . * o 7500 9.6 204 6 91 | 53.8 . * o 7000 8.7 202 6 90 | 55.6 . * o 6500 7.7 89 | 57.3 . * o 6000 7.2 199 5 88 | 59.4 . * o 5500 6.7 212 5 88 | 61.6 . * o 5000 5.8 217 4 87 | 63.3 . * o 4500 5.0 222 4 86 | 65.2 . * o 4000 4.1 252 3 85 | 67.0 . * o 3500 2.9 322 3 84 | 68.4 . *o 3000 1.4 356 4 82 | 69.7 . *o 2500 0.2 356 4 81 | 71.1 . *o 2000 -0.8 349 9 80 | 72.8 . o* 1500 -4.6 346 13 76 | 71.6 . o * 1000 -7.3 328 13 74 | 71.6 . o * 500 -7.7 321 12 73 ! 73.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 2414 54 -4308 6722 11806 0 41 -5311 7725 11806 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html