DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TONOPAH,NV on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 13726,15604 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 13484 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2771 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 21 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 817 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -578 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= 62% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3339 ft LCL= 13828 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 78 ft LCL= 17353 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 13800,15727 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 13537 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +991 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 16666,19642 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 16859 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTPH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at TPH @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@14687,17142 Hcrit=14786 HgtVar=3608 B/S= 9 W*= 871 MAPS WxC Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@14111,16444 Hcrit=14155 HgtVar=3181 B/S= 9 W*= 825 MAPS AVG Tmax=84.5> TI=-4,0@14388,16785 Hcrit=14466 HgtVar=3415 B/S=10 W*= 849 ETA NWS Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@12766,14066 Hcrit=12183 HgtVar=1934 B/S=34 W*= 764 ETA WxC Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@12433,13733 Hcrit=11873 HgtVar=1711 B/S=33 W*= 733 ETA AVG Tmax=84.5> TI=-4,0@12600,13900 Hcrit=12027 HgtVar=1822 B/S=34 W*= 748 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@14687,17142 Hcrit=14786 HgtVar=3608 B/S= 9 W*= 871 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 85 > Change@TI=+4: -777 (-1.3F) MAPS10h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@12766,14066 Hcrit=12183 HgtVar=1934 B/S=34 W*= 764 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 85 > Change@TI=+4: -380 (-1.1F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@13800,15727 Hcrit=13537 HgtVar=2344 B/S=48 W*= 795 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 89 > Change@TI=+4: +991 (+2.3F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@16666,19642 Hcrit=16859 HgtVar=2802 B/S=33 W*= 912 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from TPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 85.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 87.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 87.5 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15132 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 17 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 17167 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 3.3 88 | 12.7 19500 2.9 88 | 15.0 19000 2.4 260 32 87 | 17.2 18500 1.8 260 32 87 | 19.3 18000 1.2 86 | 21.2 o 17500 0.5 85 | 23.2 *o 17000 -0.2 85 | 25.2 o 16500 -0.9 248 25 84 | 27.2 o* 16000 -1.8 83 | 29.0 o * 15500 -2.6 82 | 30.8 o* 15000 -3.5 82 | 32.6 o * 14500 -4.3 248 21 81 | 34.4 o * 14000 -5.2 80 | 36.3 o * 13500 -6.0 79 | 38.1 . o * 13000 -6.8 78 | 40.0 . o * 12500 -7.8 251 16 77 | 41.7 . o * 12000 -8.9 76 | 43.3 . o * 11500 -9.8 255 15 75 | 45.0 . o * 11000 -10.0 253 15 75 | 47.5 . o * 10500 -10.0 252 15 75 | 50.1 . o * 10000 -10.4 247 16 75 | 52.5 . o * 9500 -11.6 242 17 73 | 53.9 . o * 9000 -13.0 234 18 72 | 55.2 . o * 8500 -13.2 225 17 72 | 57.6 . o * 8000 -14.1 210 14 71 | 59.4 . o * 7500 -17.2 194 13 68 | 58.9 . o * 7000 -19.4 179 12 66 | 59.5 . o * 6500 -20.5 178 14 65 | 61.1 . o * 6000 -22.3 175 15 63 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -30.9 182 9 54 ! 56.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@17167 73 3339 13828 16513 0 49 1075 16092 16340 526 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from TPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 85.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 86.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 86.9 F Surface elev Temp: 79.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 80.9 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 79.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 80.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16816 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 17 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 17431 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 5.5 90 | 14.3 19500 4.6 90 | 16.1 19000 3.8 284 41 89 | 18.0 18500 3.0 282 40 88 | 19.8 o 18000 1.8 87 | 21.3 *o 17500 0.4 283 38 85 | 22.5 *o 17000 -2.3 283 33 83 | 22.5 o * 16500 -3.3 82 | 24.2 o * 16000 -3.5 82 | 26.7 o * 15500 -3.6 81 | 29.3 o * 15000 -3.8 81 | 31.8 o * 14500 -3.9 81 | 34.3 . o * 14000 -4.0 81 | 36.8 . o * 13500 -4.2 81 | 39.4 . o * 13000 -4.3 81 | 41.9 . o * 12500 -4.5 81 | 44.4 . o * 12000 -4.6 235 15 80 | 46.9 . o * 11500 -4.7 234 14 80 | 49.5 . o * 11000 -4.8 226 13 80 | 52.1 . o * 10500 -4.9 218 12 80 | 54.7 . o * 10000 -5.0 208 11 80 | 57.2 . o * 9500 -5.0 197 10 80 | 59.9 . o * 9000 -5.1 184 9 80 | 62.4 . o * 8500 -5.2 172 9 80 | 65.0 . o * 8000 -5.3 161 9 80 | 67.6 . o * 7500 -5.4 151 9 80 | 70.3 . o * 7000 -5.4 144 10 80 | 72.9 . o * 6500 -5.3 137 10 80 | 75.6 . o * 6000 -5.3 131 10 80 | 78.3 . o * 5500 -5.7 125 9 79 ! 80.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@17431 68 951 16480 18575 0 62 78 17353 18575 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89049 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89049 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html