DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TONOPAH,NV on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7268,8628 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7085 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1150 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 6 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 312 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +627 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 97% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4564 ft LCL= 11434 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1220 ft LCL= 8524 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 9071,10282 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8842 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +232 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 10275,11204 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9674 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KTPH 021127Z 0212/0312 33015KT P6SM SCT250 FM021900 32020G30KT P6SM SKC FM030100 36012KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at TPH @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 6224, 6875 Hcrit= 5426 HgtVar=1155 B/S= 8 W*= 186 MAPS WxC Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 6875, 8030 Hcrit= 6699 HgtVar= 684 B/S=13 W*= 289 MAPS AVG Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@ 6562, 7400 Hcrit= 5949 HgtVar= 933 B/S=10 W*= 233 ETA NWS Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 8312,10382 Hcrit= 8744 HgtVar=1145 B/S= 4 W*= 439 ETA WxC Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@10382,11527 Hcrit= 9905 HgtVar= 952 B/S= 5 W*= 574 ETA AVG Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@ 9562,10970 Hcrit= 9352 HgtVar=1092 B/S= 5 W*= 509 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 6224, 6875 Hcrit= 5426 HgtVar=1155 B/S= 8 W*= 186 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 42 > Change@TI=+4: +1631 (+13.2F) MAPS10h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 8312,10382 Hcrit= 8744 HgtVar=1145 B/S= 4 W*= 439 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 42 > Change@TI=+4: -377 (-1.6F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 42 > TI=-4,0@ 9071,10282 Hcrit= 8842 HgtVar= 870 B/S= 9 W*= 499 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 42 > Change@TI=+4: +232 (+1.2F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 45 > TI=-4,0@10275,11204 Hcrit= 9674 HgtVar= 932 B/S=17 W*= 577 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from TPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 42.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 42.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 42.5 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12856 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6870 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.2 60 |-17.1 . o 19500 17.2 59 |-15.4 . o 19000 16.2 197 30 58 |-13.8 . o 18500 15.8 197 28 58 |-11.5 . o 18000 15.5 58 | -9.1 * . o 17500 15.3 57 | -6.7 * . o 17000 15.0 57 | -4.3 * o 16500 14.7 57 | -1.9 .* o 16000 14.5 56 | 0.5 . * o 15500 14.2 56 | 2.9 . * o 15000 13.9 56 | 5.3 . * o 14500 13.7 56 | 7.7 . * o 14000 13.4 55 | 10.1 . * o 13500 13.1 200 13 55 | 12.5 . * o 13000 12.9 55 | 15.0 . * o 12500 12.7 55 | 17.4 . * o 12000 12.5 54 | 19.9 . * o 11500 12.3 193 7 54 | 22.3 . * o 11000 11.5 189 6 53 | 24.2 . * o 10500 11.0 193 5 53 | 26.4 . * o 10000 10.1 201 4 52 | 28.2 . * o 9500 9.7 230 5 52 | 30.5 . * o 9000 9.2 235 6 51 | 32.6 . * o 8500 7.1 239 7 49 | 33.2 . * o 8000 3.8 244 6 46 | 32.6 . * o 7500 2.3 276 4 44 | 33.8 . * o 7000 0.8 322 5 43 | 35.0 . *o 6500 -2.4 316 5 40 | 34.4 . o * 6000 -5.3 235 6 37 | 34.1 . o * 5500 -11.2 268 5 31 ! 31.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@ 6870 42 -4564 11434 16143 0 32 -5649 12519 16143 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from TPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 42.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 43.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 43.4 F Surface elev Temp: 33.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 34.7 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 33.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 34.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 8241 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 21 kt Convection overcast height: 8630 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9744 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 17.2 59 |-17.3 . o 19500 17.1 130 18 59 |-14.8 . o 19000 15.4 119 17 57 |-13.8 .o 18500 13.8 56 |-12.7 .o 18000 13.3 119 17 55 |-10.6 * .o 17500 12.7 55 | -8.5 * .o 17000 12.2 54 | -6.3 * .o 16500 11.7 54 | -4.2 * o 16000 11.2 118 16 53 | -2.0 * .o 15500 9.9 52 | -0.6 * o 15000 8.6 126 16 51 | 0.7 * o 14500 7.7 50 | 2.5 * o 14000 7.0 49 | 4.5 * o 13500 6.3 48 | 6.5 * o. 13000 5.6 48 | 8.4 * o 12500 4.8 137 18 47 | 10.3 * o 12000 3.8 46 | 12.0 * o 11500 2.8 45 | 13.6 * o 11000 1.8 143 23 44 | 15.3 *o 10500 1.1 43 | 17.3 *o 10000 0.5 129 26 43 | 19.4 o 9500 -0.5 125 26 41 | 21.0 o 9000 -1.3 124 25 41 | 23.0 o* 8500 -2.2 123 25 40 | 24.7 o * 8000 -3.2 124 25 39 | 26.4 .o * 7500 -4.0 125 25 38 | 28.2 .o * 7000 -5.2 125 23 37 | 29.7 .o * 6500 -6.2 122 20 36 | 31.3 .o * 6000 -7.3 109 15 35 | 33.0 o * 5500 -8.5 101 10 34 ! 34.5 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@ 9744 99 2133 7611 7810 0 97 1220 8524 8563 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89049 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89049 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html