DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TONOPAH,NV on WED Mar 10 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6065,8012 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 6667 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1559 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 205 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +872 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 65% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2074 ft LCL= 8100 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 10859,11500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10012 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -2313 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 8062,9000 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7741 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTPH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at TPH @ 03/10:12Z for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 36 > TI=-4,0@ 5750, 6025 Hcrit= 5426 HgtVar= 675 B/S= 8 W*= 93 MAPS WxC Tmax= 38 > TI=-4,0@ 5881, 6275 Hcrit= 5426 HgtVar=2558 B/S= 7 W*= 122 MAPS AVG Tmax= 37 > TI=-4,0@ 5815, 6150 Hcrit= 5426 HgtVar=1975 B/S=10 W*= 107 ETA NWS Tmax= 36 > TI=-4,0@ 6380,10000 Hcrit= 7909 HgtVar=2444 B/S= 6 W*= 317 ETA WxC Tmax= 38 > TI=-4,0@ 7700,11285 Hcrit= 9274 HgtVar=2340 B/S= 6 W*= 421 ETA AVG Tmax= 37 > TI=-4,0@ 6833,10625 Hcrit= 8603 HgtVar=2430 B/S= 6 W*= 369 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 36 > TI=-4,0@ 5750, 6025 Hcrit= 5426 HgtVar= 675 B/S= 8 W*= 93 MAPSanl:03/10:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 36.7 > 36.0 pm NWS Tmax= 36 > Change@TI=+4: +1634 (+25.4F) MAPS9h:03/11:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 36 > TI=-4,0@ 6380,10000 Hcrit= 7909 HgtVar=2444 B/S= 6 W*= 317 ETAanal:03/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 36 > Change@TI=+4: +111 (+0.7F) ETA12hr:03/11:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@10859,11500 Hcrit=10012 HgtVar= 760 B/S= 9 W*= 642 ETA24hr:03/11:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: -2313 (-14.9F) ETA36hr:03/12:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 52 > TI=-4,0@ 8062, 9000 Hcrit= 7741 HgtVar=1083 B/S=10 W*= 409 ETA48hr:03/12:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 10-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from TPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 36.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 36.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 36.8 F Surface elev Temp: 27.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.4 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9432 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 2 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 2 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6026 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 20.9 57 |-20.2 . o 19500 20.4 56 |-18.0 . o 19000 19.9 56 |-15.9 . o 18500 19.4 55 |-13.7 . o 18000 18.8 291 13 55 |-11.6 * . o 17500 18.1 54 | -9.6 * . o 17000 17.4 53 | -7.7 * . o 16500 16.6 53 | -5.7 * . o 16000 15.9 300 15 52 | -3.8 * . o 15500 15.1 51 | -1.9 * . o 15000 14.3 50 | -0.1 * . o 14500 13.5 49 | 1.8 * . o 14000 12.7 317 16 49 | 3.7 * . o 13500 11.9 48 | 5.5 * . o 13000 11.1 47 | 7.4 * . o 12500 10.2 338 17 46 | 9.3 * . o 12000 9.6 46 | 11.3 *. o 11500 9.0 45 | 13.4 *. o 11000 8.5 44 | 15.5 * o 10500 7.9 44 | 17.6 . * o 10000 7.4 43 | 19.7 . * o 9500 6.8 338 13 43 | 21.9 . * o 9000 6.2 42 | 23.9 . * o 8500 5.6 323 10 42 | 26.0 . * o 8000 4.8 322 10 41 | 27.9 . * o 7500 4.5 324 7 41 | 30.3 . * o 7000 4.3 330 5 40 | 32.7 . * o 6500 3.8 338 4 40 | 34.8 . * o 6000 -0.2 338 4 36 | 33.5 . o 5500 -7.8 280 2 28 ! 28.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@ 6026 65 -2074 8100 11415 0 61 -3269 9295 11415 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 11-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from TPH MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 36.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 37.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 37.5 F Surface elev Temp: 36.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 37.5 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 36.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 37.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9624 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.0 340 29 54 |-22.4 . o 19500 17.5 54 |-20.2 . o 19000 17.0 53 |-18.0 . o 18500 16.6 53 |-15.8 . o 18000 16.1 325 31 52 |-13.6 * . o 17500 15.6 52 |-11.4 * . o 17000 15.1 320 31 51 | -9.3 * . o 16500 14.5 50 | -7.2 * . o 16000 13.9 50 | -5.2 * . o 15500 13.2 49 | -3.1 * . o 15000 12.6 49 | -1.1 * . o 14500 12.0 322 34 48 | 1.0 * . o 14000 11.2 47 | 2.9 * . o 13500 10.5 46 | 4.8 * . o 13000 9.7 46 | 6.7 * .o 12500 8.5 334 38 45 | 8.2 * .o 12000 5.8 341 33 42 | 8.2 * .o 11500 4.8 41 | 9.8 *. o 11000 3.8 40 | 11.5 .* o 10500 2.8 355 31 39 | 13.2 . * o 10000 2.1 38 | 15.2 . *o 9500 1.5 008 28 37 | 17.2 . *o 9000 0.9 37 | 19.3 . *o 8500 0.3 022 24 36 | 21.4 . o 8000 0.2 023 23 36 | 24.0 . o 7500 0.2 025 23 36 | 26.6 . *o 7000 0.3 027 22 36 | 29.3 . o 6500 0.4 028 22 36 | 32.1 . o 6000 0.1 030 20 36 | 34.5 . o 5500 0.1 031 17 36 ! 37.2 . *o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89049 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89049 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html