DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Jean, NV on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8852,11277 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 9312 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1862 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 31 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 699 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +253 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +7 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 878 ft LCL= 11696 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -9863 ft LCL= 15042 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 7249,11687 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9434 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +0 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 5785,12875 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10317 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KLAS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HND @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 9454,12555 Hcrit=10544 HgtVar=2382 B/S=12 W*= 831 MAPS WxC Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@14375,16750 Hcrit=14291 HgtVar=3375 B/S=14 W*=1100 MAPS AVG Tmax=94.5> TI=-4,0@12363,14625 Hcrit=12396 HgtVar=2446 B/S=13 W*= 970 ETA NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 8250,10000 Hcrit= 8080 HgtVar=1343 B/S=51 W*= 568 ETA WxC Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@11031,12384 Hcrit=10355 HgtVar=3816 B/S=48 W*= 796 ETA AVG Tmax=94.5> TI=-4,0@ 9807,11187 Hcrit= 9226 HgtVar=1513 B/S=61 W*= 683 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 9454,12555 Hcrit=10544 HgtVar=2382 B/S=12 W*= 831 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +507 (+1.1F) MAPS10h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 8250,10000 Hcrit= 8080 HgtVar=1343 B/S=51 W*= 568 ETAanal:09/01:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 94.5 > 91.0 pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -0 (-0.0F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@ 7249,11687 Hcrit= 9434 HgtVar=2146 B/S=36 W*= 609 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 99.3 > 96.0 THUpm NWS Tmax= 96 > Change@TI=+4: -0 (-0.0F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 5785,12875 Hcrit=10317 HgtVar=3312 B/S=36 W*= 608 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from HND MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.5 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15935 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12574 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 10.9 102 | 12.7 o 19500 10.5 102 | 15.0 o 19000 10.1 260 32 101 | 17.2 o 18500 9.5 260 32 100 | 19.3 o 18000 8.8 100 | 21.2 * o 17500 8.1 99 | 23.2 * o 17000 7.4 98 | 25.2 * o 16500 6.7 248 25 98 | 27.2 * o 16000 5.8 97 | 29.0 * o 15500 5.0 96 | 30.8 * o 15000 4.1 95 | 32.6 . * o 14500 3.3 248 21 94 | 34.4 . * o 14000 2.5 93 | 36.3 . * o 13500 1.6 93 | 38.1 . *o 13000 0.8 92 | 40.0 . *o 12500 -0.1 251 16 91 | 41.7 . o 12000 -1.2 90 | 43.3 . o* 11500 -2.2 255 15 89 | 45.0 . o * 11000 -2.3 253 15 89 | 47.5 . o* 10500 -2.4 252 15 89 | 50.1 . o* 10000 -2.8 247 16 88 | 52.5 . o * 9500 -3.9 242 17 87 | 53.9 . o * 9000 -5.4 234 18 86 | 55.2 . o * 8500 -5.6 225 17 85 | 57.6 . o * 8000 -6.5 210 14 85 | 59.4 . o * 7500 -9.6 194 13 81 | 58.9 . o * 7000 -11.8 179 12 79 | 59.5 . o * 6500 -12.9 178 14 78 | 61.1 . o * 6000 -14.7 175 15 76 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -22.3 182 9 69 | 56.9 . o * 5000 -25.3 66 | 56.6 . o * 4500 -28.2 63 | 56.4 . o * 4000 -31.2 60 | 56.1 . o * 3500 -34.1 57 | 55.8 . o * 3000 -37.1 149 4 54 ! 55.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@12574 73 878 11696 14427 0 66 -715 13289 14427 442 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from HND MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.9 F Surface elev Temp: 79.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 80.9 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 79.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 80.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17575 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5179 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 13.1 104 | 14.3 o 19500 12.3 103 | 16.1 o 19000 11.5 284 41 102 | 18.0 o 18500 10.7 282 40 102 | 19.8 o 18000 9.4 100 | 21.3 * o 17500 8.0 283 38 99 | 22.5 * o 17000 5.3 283 33 96 | 22.5 * o 16500 4.3 95 | 24.2 . * o 16000 4.2 95 | 26.7 . * o 15500 4.1 95 | 29.3 . * o 15000 3.9 95 | 31.8 . * o 14500 3.8 95 | 34.3 . * o 14000 3.6 95 | 36.8 . * o 13500 3.5 94 | 39.4 . * o 13000 3.3 94 | 41.9 . * o 12500 3.2 94 | 44.4 . *o 12000 3.0 235 15 94 | 46.9 . * o 11500 2.9 234 14 94 | 49.5 . *o 11000 2.9 226 13 94 | 52.1 . * o 10500 2.8 218 12 94 | 54.7 . *o 10000 2.7 208 11 94 | 57.2 . *o 9500 2.6 197 10 94 | 59.9 . * o 9000 2.5 184 9 94 | 62.4 . *o 8500 2.4 172 9 93 | 65.0 . * o 8000 2.3 161 9 93 | 67.6 . *o 7500 2.3 151 9 93 | 70.3 . * o 7000 2.3 144 10 93 | 72.9 . *o 6500 2.3 137 10 93 | 75.6 . * o 6000 2.3 131 10 93 | 78.3 . *o 5500 1.6 125 9 93 | 80.3 . *o 5000 -0.9 90 | 80.4 . o* 4500 -3.5 88 | 80.5 . o * 4000 -6.1 85 | 80.6 . o * 3500 -8.6 82 | 80.7 . o * 3000 -11.2 121 6 80 ! 80.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@ 5179 -1 -9863 15042 15797 0 -1 -9863 15042 15797 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89019 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89019 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html