DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Jean, NV on SAT Mar 13 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5249,6120 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4882 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1848 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 397 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -195 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +6 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 49% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5085 ft LCL= 11186 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -9679 ft LCL= 13114 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 10866,12307 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10452 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -2211 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 9208,10875 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9135 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KLAS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HND @ 03/13:12Z for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 5846, 6104 Hcrit= 5077 HgtVar=1717 B/S=12 W*= 466 MAPS WxC Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 6625, 8380 Hcrit= 7004 HgtVar=1620 B/S=16 W*= 631 MAPS AVG Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 5978, 7437 Hcrit= 6179 HgtVar=1182 B/S=12 W*= 554 ETA NWS Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 4652, 6136 Hcrit= 4687 HgtVar=1979 B/S= 6 W*= 329 ETA WxC Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 7111, 8923 Hcrit= 7227 HgtVar=1577 B/S= 7 W*= 540 ETA AVG Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 5681, 7650 Hcrit= 6048 HgtVar=1657 B/S= 7 W*= 436 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 5846, 6104 Hcrit= 5077 HgtVar=1717 B/S=12 W*= 466 MAPSanl:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 58 > Change@TI=+4: -1987 (-8.7F) MAPS10h:03/14:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 4652, 6136 Hcrit= 4687 HgtVar=1979 B/S= 6 W*= 329 ETAanal:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 58 > Change@TI=+4: +1597 (+6.7F) ETA12hr:03/14:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@10866,12307 Hcrit=10452 HgtVar=1556 B/S= 8 W*= 912 ETA24hr:03/14:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 66 > Change@TI=+4: -2211 (-6.9F) ETA36hr:03/15:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@ 9208,10875 Hcrit= 9135 HgtVar=1761 B/S=13 W*= 773 ETA48hr:03/15:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 13-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from HND MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 58.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 58.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 58.6 F Surface elev Temp: 28.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 28.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15994 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6101 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 27.0 85 | -6.1 o 19500 26.6 85 | -3.9 o 19000 26.2 84 | -1.6 o 18500 25.6 316 16 84 | 0.5 o 18000 24.9 83 | 2.5 * o 17500 24.3 82 | 4.5 * o 17000 23.6 82 | 6.5 * o 16500 22.9 312 17 81 | 8.5 . * o 16000 21.7 80 | 10.0 . * o 15500 20.5 79 | 11.4 . * o 15000 19.3 304 16 77 | 12.8 . * o 14500 17.9 76 | 14.1 . * o 14000 16.6 305 13 75 | 15.5 . * o 13500 15.4 73 | 17.0 . * o 13000 14.3 309 9 72 | 18.6 . * o 12500 13.4 71 | 20.3 . * o 12000 12.5 71 | 22.2 . * o 11500 11.7 70 | 24.0 . * o 11000 10.9 310 7 69 | 25.9 . * o 10500 10.4 68 | 28.0 . * o 10000 10.0 304 6 68 | 30.3 . * o 9500 9.6 301 6 68 | 32.6 . * o 9000 8.6 268 5 67 | 34.2 . * o 8500 6.5 228 6 65 | 34.8 . * o 8000 4.5 207 6 62 | 35.4 . * o 7500 3.1 169 6 61 | 36.8 . * o 7000 2.3 137 8 60 | 38.6 . *o 6500 1.9 133 11 60 | 40.9 . *o 6000 -0.5 115 11 58 | 41.2 . o* 5500 -11.9 163 11 46 | 32.4 . o * 5000 -15.3 43 | 31.7 . o * 4500 -18.7 39 | 31.0 . o * 4000 -22.1 36 | 30.3 . o * 3500 -25.5 33 | 29.6 . o * 3000 -28.9 145 5 29 ! 28.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@ 6101 49 -5085 11186 17563 0 40 -5973 12074 17563 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 14-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from HND MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 58.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 58.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 58.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13806 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3435 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 22.7 81 |-10.1 o 19500 22.3 80 | -7.8 o 19000 21.9 197 15 80 | -5.6 o 18500 21.4 208 16 79 | -3.3 o 18000 21.0 79 | -1.1 * o 17500 20.5 79 | 1.1 * o 17000 20.0 78 | 3.3 * o 16500 19.6 78 | 5.5 . * o 16000 19.1 240 18 77 | 7.6 . * o 15500 15.7 74 | 6.9 . * o 15000 15.0 73 | 9.0 * o 14500 14.4 72 | 11.0 * o 14000 13.7 72 | 13.0 *. o 13500 13.1 244 7 71 | 15.0 * . o 13000 12.8 71 | 17.4 * . o 12500 12.7 71 | 20.0 * o 12000 12.6 71 | 22.5 * o 11500 12.5 70 | 25.1 .* o 11000 12.4 70 | 27.7 . * o 10500 12.3 70 | 30.2 . * o 10000 12.2 162 9 70 | 32.8 . * o 9500 12.1 162 10 70 | 35.4 . * o 9000 11.9 159 11 70 | 37.9 . * o 8500 11.8 156 13 70 | 40.4 . * o 8000 11.6 153 14 70 | 42.9 . * o 7500 11.5 150 15 70 | 45.5 . * o 7000 11.4 148 16 69 | 48.1 . * o 6500 11.5 143 16 69 | 50.8 . * o 6000 11.5 140 15 70 | 53.5 . * o 5500 10.8 136 13 69 | 55.4 . * o 5000 8.2 66 | 55.5 . * o 4500 5.6 64 | 55.6 . * o 4000 2.9 61 | 55.6 . *o 3500 0.3 58 | 55.7 . o 3000 -2.3 134 9 56 ! 55.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@ 3435 -1 -9679 13114 13588 0 -1 -9679 13114 13588 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89019 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89019 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html