DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HUTCHINSON,KS on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 95% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4489 ft LCL= 11434 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1265 ft LCL= 8503 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 4230,5020 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3711 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KHUT 021731Z 0218/0318 13009KT P6SM BKN150 FM030300 11013KT P6SM VCSH OVC060CB FM030500 11015KT 3SM -SHRA VCTS OVC025CB FM030900 13014KT 2SM -SHRA VCTS OVC009CB TEMPO 0312/0316 VRB05KT 2SM SHRA OVC009CB FM031600 VRB05KT 3SM -SHRA VCTS OVC010CB ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HUT @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 6310, 6939 Hcrit= 5669 HgtVar=1167 B/S=30 W*= 673 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 4250, 7041 Hcrit= 5432 HgtVar=1431 B/S=13 W*= 503 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 6310, 6939 Hcrit= 5669 HgtVar=1167 B/S=30 W*= 673 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 63 > Change@TI=+4: +2603 (+13.2F) MAPS9h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 4250, 7041 Hcrit= 5432 HgtVar=1431 B/S=13 W*= 503 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 63 > Change@TI=+4: -589 (-2.3F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 2378, 3000 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 750 B/S= 5 W*= 172 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm WxC Tmax= 54 > Change@TI=+4: +528 (+5.5F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 45 > TI=-4,0@ 4230, 5020 Hcrit= 3711 HgtVar= 813 B/S= 3 W*= 377 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from HUT MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 63.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 63.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 63.6 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17553 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6945 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 13.5 76 | 5.3 * o 14500 13.2 76 | 7.7 * o 14000 12.9 76 | 10.1 * o 13500 12.7 200 13 76 | 12.5 * o 13000 12.4 75 | 15.0 * o 12500 12.2 75 | 17.4 * o 12000 12.0 75 | 19.9 * o 11500 11.8 193 7 75 | 22.3 * o 11000 11.0 189 6 74 | 24.2 * o 10500 10.5 193 5 74 | 26.4 * o 10000 9.6 201 4 73 | 28.2 . * o 9500 9.2 230 5 72 | 30.5 . * o 9000 8.7 235 6 72 | 32.6 . * o 8500 6.6 239 7 70 | 33.2 . * o 8000 3.3 244 6 66 | 32.6 . * o 7500 1.8 276 4 65 | 33.8 . *o 7000 0.4 322 5 63 | 35.0 . o 6500 -2.9 316 5 60 | 34.4 . o * 6000 -5.8 235 6 57 | 34.1 . o * 5500 -11.0 268 5 52 | 31.6 . o * 5000 -13.8 49 | 31.5 . o * 4500 -16.6 46 | 31.3 . o * 4000 -19.4 44 | 31.2 . o * 3500 -22.2 41 | 31.1 . o * 3000 -25.1 38 | 30.9 . o * 2500 -27.9 35 | 30.8 . o * 2000 -30.7 32 ! 30.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 6945 42 -4489 11434 16143 0 32 -5664 12609 16143 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from HUT MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 63.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 64.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 64.6 F Surface elev Temp: 35.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.7 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 36.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12194 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: 8055 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9768 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 8.0 71 | 0.9 * .o 14500 7.2 114 27 70 | 2.7 * .o 14000 6.5 70 | 4.7 * o 13500 5.9 69 | 6.7 * o 13000 5.2 68 | 8.8 * .o 12500 4.6 112 27 68 | 10.8 * .o 12000 3.6 67 | 12.5 *.o 11500 2.7 66 | 14.3 * o 11000 1.8 110 28 65 | 16.0 *o 10500 1.0 64 | 17.9 o 10000 0.3 110 29 63 | 19.9 *o 9500 -0.4 111 28 63 | 21.9 .o 9000 -1.2 112 28 62 | 23.7 .o* 8500 -2.0 113 28 61 | 25.6 .o* 8000 -2.7 115 26 60 | 27.5 .o * 7500 -3.5 115 25 59 | 29.4 . o * 7000 -4.4 118 22 59 | 31.2 . o * 6500 -5.8 122 19 57 | 32.5 .o * 6000 -6.9 119 11 56 | 34.0 .o * 5500 -7.6 116 9 55 | 36.0 .o * 5000 -10.2 53 | 36.1 .o * 4500 -12.8 50 | 36.2 .o * 4000 -15.4 48 | 36.3 .o * 3500 -17.9 45 | 36.4 .o * 3000 -20.5 42 | 36.5 .o * 2500 -23.1 40 | 36.5 .o * 2000 -25.7 37 ! 36.6 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 9768 99 2016 7752 8069 0 95 1265 8503 8543 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=67502 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/67502 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html