DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HUTCHINSON,KS on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5511,6812 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5258 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2094 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 527 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +897 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= 71% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2637 ft LCL= 10447 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -131 ft LCL= 7360 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 1316 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 2947,3604 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2060 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +3103 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 7115,8714 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6875 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KHUT ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HUT @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 7023, 7812 Hcrit= 6354 HgtVar=1813 B/S=15 W*= 686 MAPS WxC Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 7656, 9250 Hcrit= 7598 HgtVar=3022 B/S=16 W*= 778 MAPS AVG Tmax=91.5> TI=-4,0@ 7380, 8166 Hcrit= 6670 HgtVar=3334 B/S=16 W*= 717 ETA NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 4000, 5812 Hcrit= 4162 HgtVar=2375 B/S= 4 W*= 368 ETA WxC Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5187, 7611 Hcrit= 5774 HgtVar=2889 B/S= 5 W*= 483 ETA AVG Tmax=91.5> TI=-4,0@ 4571, 6687 Hcrit= 4946 HgtVar=2563 B/S= 4 W*= 424 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 7023, 7812 Hcrit= 6354 HgtVar=1813 B/S=15 W*= 686 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z NO MAPSpm+NWStmax TI - bad raob file size RAOB/tmp.auto.tip_hutchinson.raob.41 ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 4000, 5812 Hcrit= 4162 HgtVar=2375 B/S= 4 W*= 368 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 90 > Change@TI=+4: +897 (+3.0F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 2947, 3604 Hcrit= 2060 HgtVar= 833 B/S= 2 W*= 230 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 86 > Change@TI=+4: +3103 (+25.0F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 7115, 8714 Hcrit= 6875 HgtVar=1500 B/S= 5 W*= 598 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from HUT MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 90.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.5 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15698 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7810 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 11.8 102 | 32.6 * o 14500 11.0 248 21 101 | 34.4 * o 14000 10.1 100 | 36.3 * o 13500 9.3 99 | 38.1 . * o 13000 8.5 98 | 40.0 . * o 12500 7.5 251 16 98 | 41.7 . * o 12000 6.4 96 | 43.3 . * o 11500 5.5 255 15 95 | 45.0 . * o 11000 5.3 253 15 95 | 47.5 . * o 10500 5.3 252 15 95 | 50.1 . * o 10000 4.9 247 16 95 | 52.5 . * o 9500 3.7 242 17 94 | 53.9 . * o 9000 2.3 234 18 92 | 55.2 . *o 8500 2.1 225 17 92 | 57.6 . * o 8000 1.2 210 14 91 | 59.4 . *o 7500 -2.0 194 13 88 | 58.9 . o* 7000 -4.1 179 12 86 | 59.5 . o * 6500 -5.2 178 14 85 | 61.1 . o * 6000 -7.0 175 15 83 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -14.6 182 9 75 | 56.9 . o * 5000 -17.5 72 | 56.8 . o * 4500 -20.4 70 | 56.6 . o * 4000 -23.2 67 | 56.4 . o * 3500 -26.1 64 | 56.2 . o * 3000 -29.0 61 | 56.0 . o * 2500 -31.8 58 | 55.8 . o * 2000 -34.7 55 ! 55.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 7810 73 -2637 10447 14334 0 51 -3740 11550 14334 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using ETA12hr+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-SEP-2010 00 UTC TI report from HUT ETA12hr upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 90.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.5 F Raob est. max temp: 90.9 F Surface elev Temp: 82.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 88.3 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1522 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1683 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 82.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 88.0 F Lifted Index @700mb: -1.1 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 4441 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 5807 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 7398 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 6601 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 16 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 21 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7229 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 11.3 101 | 34.8 * o 14500 10.2 268 27 100 | 36.3 * o 14000 9.4 99 | 38.2 . * o 13500 8.8 99 | 40.2 . * o 13000 8.1 98 | 42.2 . * o 12500 7.4 253 27 97 | 44.1 . * o 12000 6.6 97 | 46.1 . * o 11500 5.8 96 | 48.0 . * o 11000 5.1 95 | 49.9 . * o 10500 4.3 236 20 94 | 51.8 . * o 10000 3.6 94 | 53.7 . * o 9500 2.9 93 | 55.7 . * o 9000 2.2 92 | 57.7 . *o 8500 1.5 206 16 92 | 59.7 . *o 8000 0.9 91 | 61.7 . *o 7500 0.3 90 | 63.8 . o 7000 -0.3 90 | 65.9 . o* 6500 -0.9 186 18 89 | 67.9 . o 6000 -1.7 88 | 69.8 . o* 5500 -2.4 88 | 71.8 . o * 5000 -3.2 174 23 87 | 73.7 . o * 4500 -3.7 86 | 75.8 . o * 4000 -4.3 86 | 77.9 . o * 3500 -4.8 161 26 85 | 80.0 . o * 3000 -5.3 85 | 82.2 . o * 2500 -5.8 84 | 84.4 . o * 2000 -6.3 84 ! 86.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 7229 69 666 6563 8093 972 71 -131 7360 8018 1316 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=67502 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/67502 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html