DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HUTCHINSON,KS on SAT Mar 13 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4781,5455 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4180 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 504 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 8 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 442 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -3679 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3952 ft LCL= 9461 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 3393,4129 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2911 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -112 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 3882,5078 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3707 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KHUT ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HUT @ 03/13:12Z for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 4903, 5508 Hcrit= 4280 HgtVar= 176 B/S=14 W*= 468 MAPS WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 5062, 5552 Hcrit= 4342 HgtVar= 176 B/S=14 W*= 483 MAPS AVG Tmax=53.5> TI=-4,0@ 4984, 5530 Hcrit= 4310 HgtVar= 176 B/S=14 W*= 475 ETA NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 4660, 5403 Hcrit= 4080 HgtVar= 832 B/S= 3 W*= 417 ETA WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 4839, 5592 Hcrit= 4264 HgtVar= 958 B/S= 3 W*= 438 ETA AVG Tmax=53.5> TI=-4,0@ 4750, 5500 Hcrit= 4172 HgtVar= 882 B/S= 3 W*= 427 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 4903, 5508 Hcrit= 4280 HgtVar= 176 B/S=14 W*= 468 MAPSanl:03/13:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 54.7 > 53.0 pm NWS Tmax= 53 > Change@TI=+4: -6456 (-77.9F) MAPS9h:03/14:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 4660, 5403 Hcrit= 4080 HgtVar= 832 B/S= 3 W*= 417 ETAanal:03/13:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 53 > Change@TI=+4: -902 (-5.7F) ETA12hr:03/14:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 3393, 4129 Hcrit= 2911 HgtVar= 825 B/S= 3 W*= 305 ETA24hr:03/14:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 53 > Change@TI=+4: -112 (-0.8F) ETA36hr:03/15:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@ 3882, 5078 Hcrit= 3707 HgtVar=1022 B/S= 4 W*= 366 ETA48hr:03/15:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 13-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from HUT MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 53.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 53.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 53.6 F Surface elev Temp: 28.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 28.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14883 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5509 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 30.9 304 16 84 | 12.8 * . o 14500 29.5 83 | 14.1 * . o 14000 28.2 305 13 81 | 15.5 *. o 13500 27.1 80 | 17.0 *. o 13000 26.0 309 9 79 | 18.6 * . o 12500 25.0 78 | 20.3 *. o 12000 24.2 77 | 22.2 *. o 11500 23.4 76 | 24.0 *. o 11000 22.6 310 7 76 | 25.9 *. o 10500 22.1 75 | 28.0 * o 10000 21.7 304 6 75 | 30.3 * o 9500 21.3 301 6 74 | 32.6 .* o 9000 20.3 268 5 73 | 34.2 . * o 8500 18.2 228 6 71 | 34.8 . * o 8000 16.1 207 6 69 | 35.4 . * o 7500 14.8 169 6 68 | 36.8 . * o 7000 13.9 137 8 67 | 38.6 . * o 6500 13.6 133 11 67 | 40.9 . * o 6000 11.2 115 11 64 | 41.2 . * o 5500 -0.2 163 11 53 | 32.5 . o 5000 -3.4 50 | 32.0 . o * 4500 -6.5 46 | 31.5 . o * 4000 -9.7 43 | 31.0 . o * 3500 -12.9 40 | 30.5 . o * 3000 -16.0 37 | 30.0 . o * 2500 -19.2 34 | 29.5 . o * 2000 -22.3 31 ! 29.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 5509 -1 -3952 9461 18531 0 -1 -3952 9461 18531 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 14-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from HUT MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 53.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 55.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 55.6 F Surface elev Temp: 54.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.6 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13073 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 24.0 77 | 7.9 * . o 14500 23.1 243 11 76 | 9.6 * . o 14000 22.8 76 | 12.0 * . o 13500 22.6 76 | 14.5 * . o 13000 22.5 75 | 17.1 * . o 12500 22.3 75 | 19.6 * . o 12000 22.2 75 | 22.1 * . o 11500 22.0 75 | 24.7 * . o 11000 21.9 75 | 27.2 * . o 10500 21.8 75 | 29.7 * . o 10000 21.6 163 9 75 | 32.2 * . o 9500 21.5 162 9 75 | 34.8 *. o 9000 21.5 157 11 74 | 37.5 * o 8500 21.3 153 12 74 | 40.0 .* o 8000 21.2 149 13 74 | 42.5 . * o 7500 21.1 146 15 74 | 45.1 . * o 7000 21.1 143 15 74 | 47.7 . * o 6500 21.1 138 16 74 | 50.4 . * o 6000 21.1 135 15 74 | 53.1 . * o 5500 20.4 132 13 73 | 55.1 . * o 5000 17.8 71 | 55.1 . * o 4500 15.2 68 | 55.2 . * o 4000 12.6 66 | 55.3 . * o 3500 10.0 63 | 55.3 . * o 3000 7.4 60 | 55.4 . * o 2500 4.8 58 | 55.5 . * o 2000 2.2 55 ! 55.6 . * o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=67502 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/67502 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html