DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Houston, TX on THU Feb 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 42% PM= 101% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4175 ft LCL= 12468 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2773 ft LCL= 10448 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 95 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: ,368 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 127 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KSGR 021605Z 0216/0312 15008KT P6SM VCSH SCT005 OVC011 TEMPO 0216/0219 OVC007 FM022000 13010KT P6SM BKN025 BKN050 FM030300 12009KT 6SM BR OVC010 FM030900 12007KT 3SM BR OVC005 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at SGR @ 02/02:12Z for Sfc= 127 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 7300, 8287 Hcrit= 6733 HgtVar=1213 B/S=43 W*= 957 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 1500, 3285 Hcrit= 1569 HgtVar=2033 B/S=50 W*= 276 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 7300, 8287 Hcrit= 6733 HgtVar=1213 B/S=43 W*= 957 MAPSanl:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: +4607 (+19.0F) MAPS10h:02/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 1500, 3285 Hcrit= 1569 HgtVar=2033 B/S=50 W*= 276 ETAanal:02/02:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: +208 (+1.0F) ETA12hr:02/03:00Z FRIam WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 1739, 3272 Hcrit= 1719 HgtVar=1950 B/S= 2 W*= 297 ETA24hr:02/03:12Z FRIpm WxC Tmax= 75 > Change@TI=+4: +335 (+1.5F) ETA36hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ -, 368 Hcrit= 127 HgtVar=1439 B/S= 0 W*= 26 ETA48hr:02/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 2-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from SGR MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 76.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 76.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 76.6 F Surface elev Temp: 30.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 30.5 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 30.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 20450 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8293 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 8.8 85 | 0.5 15500 8.5 84 | 2.9 15000 8.2 84 | 5.3 14500 8.0 84 | 7.7 14000 7.7 84 | 10.1 13500 7.4 200 13 83 | 12.5 13000 7.2 83 | 15.0 12500 7.0 83 | 17.4 12000 6.8 83 | 19.9 11500 6.5 193 7 83 | 22.3 11000 5.7 189 6 82 | 24.2 o 10500 5.3 193 5 81 | 26.4 o 10000 4.4 201 4 80 | 28.2 * o 9500 4.0 230 5 80 | 30.5 * o 9000 3.5 235 6 79 | 32.6 * o 8500 1.4 239 7 77 | 33.2 * o 8000 -1.9 244 6 74 | 32.6 o * 7500 -3.4 276 4 73 | 33.8 o * 7000 -4.9 322 5 71 | 35.0 o * 6500 -8.1 316 5 68 | 34.4 o * 6000 -11.1 235 6 65 | 34.1 o * 5500 -16.2 268 5 60 | 31.6 o * 5000 -19.0 57 | 31.5 o * 4500 -21.8 54 | 31.4 o * 4000 -24.6 51 | 31.3 o * 3500 -27.3 49 | 31.2 o * 3000 -30.1 46 | 31.1 o * 2500 -32.9 43 | 31.0 o * 2000 -35.6 40 | 30.9 o * 1500 -38.4 38 | 30.8 o * 1000 -41.2 35 | 30.7 o * 500 -44.0 32 ! 30.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@ 8293 42 -4175 12468 16400 0 29 -5684 13977 16400 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from SGR MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 76.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 77.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 77.5 F Surface elev Temp: 33.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 34.7 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 33.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 34.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15320 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 16 kt Convection overcast height: 9933 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13221 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.3 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 5.3 118 16 81 | -2.0 15500 4.0 80 | -0.6 15000 2.7 126 16 79 | 0.7 14500 1.8 78 | 2.5 14000 1.1 77 | 4.5 13500 0.4 76 | 6.5 13000 -0.3 76 | 8.4 12500 -1.1 137 18 75 | 10.3 12000 -2.1 74 | 12.0 11500 -3.1 73 | 13.6 11000 -4.1 143 23 72 | 15.3 * 10500 -4.8 71 | 17.3 * 10000 -5.4 129 26 71 | 19.4 o * 9500 -6.4 125 26 70 | 21.0 .o * 9000 -7.2 124 25 69 | 23.0 o * 8500 -8.1 123 25 68 | 24.7 .o * 8000 -9.1 124 25 67 | 26.4 .o * 7500 -9.9 125 25 66 | 28.2 .o * 7000 -11.1 125 23 65 | 29.7 .o * 6500 -12.1 122 20 64 | 31.3 .o * 6000 -13.2 109 15 63 | 33.0 o * 5500 -14.7 101 10 61 | 34.1 o * 5000 -17.3 59 | 34.2 o * 4500 -19.9 56 | 34.2 o * 4000 -22.6 53 | 34.3 o * 3500 -25.2 51 | 34.3 o * 3000 -27.8 48 | 34.4 o * 2500 -30.4 46 | 34.4 o * 2000 -33.0 43 | 34.5 o * 1500 -35.7 40 | 34.5 o * 1000 -38.3 38 | 34.6 o * 500 -40.9 35 ! 34.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@13221 100 4297 8924 9134 0 101 2773 10448 10571 95 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77474 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/77474 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html