DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Houston, TX on SUN Mar 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 90% PM= 64% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 442 ft LCL= 8259 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1017 ft LCL= 11211 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) MON AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL MON PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 TUE AM HEIGHTS: 2357,4095 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2442 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSGR ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at SGR @ 03/14:12Z for Sfc= 127 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 8107, 8700 Hcrit= 7056 HgtVar= 503 B/S=17 W*= 946 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 2166, 4750 Hcrit= 3098 HgtVar=1516 B/S= 5 W*= 403 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 8107, 8700 Hcrit= 7056 HgtVar= 503 B/S=17 W*= 946 MAPSanl:03/14:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: +4658 (+36.7F) MAPS10h:03/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 2166, 4750 Hcrit= 3098 HgtVar=1516 B/S= 5 W*= 403 ETAanal:03/14:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: -613 (-2.7F) ETA12hr:03/15:00Z MONam WxC Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 1826, 4500 Hcrit= 2732 HgtVar=2136 B/S=13 W*= 355 ETA24hr:03/15:12Z MONpm WxC Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -46 (-0.2F) ETA36hr:03/16:00Z TUEam WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 2357, 4095 Hcrit= 2442 HgtVar=1005 B/S= 5 W*= 345 ETA48hr:03/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 14-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from SGR MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 76.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 77.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 77.2 F Surface elev Temp: 31.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 32.3 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 31.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 32.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16782 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8701 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 11.9 88 | 4.2 15500 11.5 87 | 6.5 15000 11.0 87 | 8.7 14500 10.6 87 | 10.9 14000 10.1 86 | 13.1 13500 9.7 139 17 86 | 15.4 13000 9.3 85 | 17.6 12500 8.8 85 | 19.9 12000 8.4 84 | 22.1 11500 8.0 84 | 24.4 o 11000 7.6 84 | 26.7 o 10500 7.2 83 | 28.9 o 10000 6.8 122 18 83 | 31.2 * o 9500 5.9 127 17 82 | 33.0 * o 9000 2.7 153 15 79 | 32.5 * o 8500 -1.8 177 18 74 | 30.6 o* 8000 -4.6 184 21 71 | 30.5 o * 7500 -6.4 183 21 70 | 31.4 . o * 7000 -7.8 184 21 68 | 32.6 . o * 6500 -11.9 186 19 64 | 31.2 . o * 6000 -13.0 168 12 63 | 32.7 . o * 5500 -15.6 155 10 60 | 32.9 . o * 5000 -18.3 58 | 32.8 . o * 4500 -21.0 55 | 32.8 . o * 4000 -23.7 52 | 32.7 . o * 3500 -26.5 50 | 32.7 . o * 3000 -29.2 47 | 32.6 . o * 2500 -31.9 44 | 32.6 . o * 2000 -34.6 41 | 32.5 . o * 1500 -37.3 39 | 32.5 . o * 1000 -40.1 36 | 32.4 . o * 500 -42.8 33 ! 32.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@ 8701 90 442 8259 12453 0 66 -1442 10143 12453 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from SGR MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 76.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 77.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 77.2 F Surface elev Temp: 34.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 35.5 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 34.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 35.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16360 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: 11252 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12228 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.3 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 9.0 85 | 1.4 15500 7.9 84 | 3.0 15000 6.8 103 19 83 | 4.6 14500 5.7 82 | 6.1 14000 4.6 81 | 7.7 13500 3.2 095 20 79 | 9.0 13000 1.4 077 19 77 | 9.9 12500 0.4 76 | 11.5 12000 -0.3 76 | 13.5 11500 -1.0 75 | 15.5 11000 -1.7 74 | 17.5 * 10500 -2.3 067 11 74 | 19.5 o * 10000 -4.2 063 11 72 | 20.2 o * 9500 -8.1 059 10 68 | 19.0 o * 9000 -10.7 65 | 19.2 o * 8500 -10.9 035 18 65 | 21.6 . o * 8000 -11.7 041 16 64 | 23.5 o * 7500 -12.3 048 15 64 | 25.5 o * 7000 -12.9 052 14 63 | 27.6 o * 6500 -12.9 052 14 63 | 30.3 . o * 6000 -13.0 052 14 63 | 32.8 . o * 5500 -13.6 052 12 62 | 35.0 . o * 5000 -16.2 60 | 35.0 . o * 4500 -18.8 57 | 35.1 . o * 4000 -21.4 55 | 35.1 . o * 3500 -24.1 52 | 35.2 . o * 3000 -26.7 49 | 35.2 . o * 2500 -29.3 47 | 35.3 . o * 2000 -31.9 44 | 35.3 . o * 1500 -34.6 41 | 35.4 . o * 1000 -37.2 39 | 35.4 . o * 500 -39.8 36 ! 35.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@12228 100 3238 8990 11303 0 64 1017 11211 11562 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77474 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/77474 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html