DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Houston, TX on TUE Aug 31 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 67% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5196 ft LCL= 11913 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -12806 ft LCL= 15470 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 5562,7500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5467 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSGR ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at SGR @ 08/31:12Z for Sfc= 127 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 6018, 6712 Hcrit= 5217 HgtVar=1469 B/S=18 W*= 718 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3454, 5272 Hcrit= 3386 HgtVar=1864 B/S= 9 W*= 392 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 6018, 6712 Hcrit= 5217 HgtVar=1469 B/S=18 W*= 718 MAPSanl:08/31:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -2993 (-12.4F) MAPS10h:09/01:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3454, 5272 Hcrit= 3386 HgtVar=1864 B/S= 9 W*= 392 ETAanal:08/31:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -30 (-0.1F) ETA12hr:09/01:00Z WEDam WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 4500, 6681 Hcrit= 4698 HgtVar=1549 B/S=10 W*= 487 ETA24hr:09/01:12Z WEDpm WxC Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +62 (+0.2F) ETA36hr:09/02:00Z THUam WxC Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 5562, 7500 Hcrit= 5467 HgtVar=1464 B/S=12 W*= 547 ETA48hr:09/02:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 31-Aug-2010 12 UTC TI report from SGR MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.3 F Surface elev Temp: 53.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16415 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6717 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 21.4 245 26 112 | 29.9 15500 20.1 111 | 31.3 15000 18.9 110 | 32.7 14500 17.9 249 25 109 | 34.4 14000 17.3 108 | 36.5 13500 16.7 108 | 38.6 13000 16.1 107 | 40.7 o 12500 15.6 107 | 42.8 o 12000 15.0 242 23 106 | 44.8 o 11500 14.6 241 23 106 | 47.2 o 11000 14.0 227 22 105 | 49.2 o 10500 13.0 218 21 104 | 50.9 o 10000 11.6 198 20 103 | 52.2 * o 9500 10.4 178 19 101 | 53.6 * o 9000 7.7 161 17 99 | 53.6 * o 8500 4.7 142 13 96 | 53.3 . * o 8000 3.6 109 10 95 | 54.8 . * o 7500 2.6 075 10 94 | 56.6 . * o 7000 1.9 050 16 93 | 58.5 * o 6500 -1.4 045 19 90 | 57.8 o * 6000 -4.1 031 18 87 | 57.8 o * 5500 -5.6 113 6 85 | 59.0 . o * 5000 -8.6 82 | 58.7 . o * 4500 -11.6 79 | 58.3 . o * 4000 -14.6 76 | 58.0 . o * 3500 -17.6 73 | 57.7 . o * 3000 -20.6 70 | 57.3 . o * 2500 -23.6 67 | 57.0 . o * 2000 -26.6 64 | 56.7 . o * 1500 -29.6 61 | 56.3 . o * 1000 -32.7 58 | 56.0 . o * 500 -35.7 55 ! 55.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@ 6717 67 -5196 11913 18997 0 49 -5790 12507 18997 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 1-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from SGR MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.7 F Surface elev Temp: 77.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 79.6 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 77.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 79.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18134 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2664 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 19.0 110 | 26.9 15500 18.9 110 | 29.5 15000 18.9 110 | 32.1 14500 18.8 110 | 34.7 14000 18.7 110 | 37.3 13500 18.7 110 | 39.9 13000 18.6 110 | 42.6 o 12500 18.6 110 | 45.2 o 12000 18.5 176 23 110 | 47.8 o 11500 17.7 169 22 109 | 49.7 o 11000 17.4 158 21 108 | 52.0 o 10500 16.8 148 20 108 | 54.1 o 10000 16.4 136 19 107 | 56.4 * o 9500 15.9 124 18 107 | 58.5 * o 9000 15.4 113 18 106 | 60.7 * o 8500 15.3 104 18 106 | 63.3 * o 8000 15.2 100 18 106 | 65.9 * o 7500 15.4 096 18 106 | 68.7 * o 7000 15.3 092 18 106 | 71.3 * o 6500 15.4 089 17 106 | 74.0 * o 6000 15.4 086 17 106 | 76.7 * o 5500 14.7 082 14 106 | 78.7 * o 5000 12.1 103 | 78.8 * o 4500 9.5 101 | 78.8 * o 4000 6.9 98 | 78.9 * o 3500 4.3 95 | 79.0 * o 3000 1.7 93 | 79.1 *o 2500 -0.9 90 | 79.2 o* 2000 -3.4 88 | 79.3 o * 1500 -6.0 85 | 79.3 o * 1000 -8.6 82 | 79.4 o * 500 -11.2 80 ! 79.5 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@ 2664 -1 -12806 15470 16825 0 -1 -12806 15470 16825 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77474 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/77474 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html