DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Enumclaw, WA on WED Mar 10 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6142,10307 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 8036 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1609 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 5 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 636 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1014 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 95% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 5399 ft LCL= 4917 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5982 ft LCL= 9287 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 3611,4700 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3214 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -306 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1426,3192 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1100 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTCM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at UIL @ 03/10:12Z for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 6142,10307 Hcrit= 8036 HgtVar=1609 B/S= 5 W*= 636 WxC Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 6142,10307 Hcrit= 8036 HgtVar=1609 B/S= 5 W*= 636 AVG Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 6142,10307 Hcrit= 8036 HgtVar=1609 B/S= 5 W*= 636 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 4111, 4851 Hcrit= 3583 HgtVar= 682 B/S=38 W*= 428 MAPSanl:03/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 48 > Change@TI=+4: -1226 (-8.6F) MAPS9h:03/11:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 5125, 7642 Hcrit= 5730 HgtVar=3258 B/S= 9 W*= 508 ETAanal:03/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 48 > Change@TI=+4: -802 (-1.8F) ETA12hr:03/11:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 3611, 4700 Hcrit= 3214 HgtVar= 975 B/S= 2 W*= 348 ETA24hr:03/11:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 47 > Change@TI=+4: -306 (-1.7F) ETA36hr:03/12:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 1426, 3192 Hcrit= 1100 HgtVar=1558 B/S= 2 W*= 177 ETA48hr:03/12:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 10-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from UIL OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 48.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 49.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 49.1 F Raob est. max temp: 46.7 F Surface elev Temp: 35.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 37.1 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 203 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2402 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 30.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 31.8 F Lifted Index @700mb: -0.4 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1077 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2075 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 2292 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 4397 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 29 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 24 kt Convection overcast height: 7292 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10316 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 19.3 317 37 67 |-21.9 * o 17500 16.7 315 32 65 |-21.8 * o 17000 13.6 62 |-22.3 * o 16500 10.5 307 24 58 |-22.7 * o 16000 8.3 56 |-22.1 * o 15500 7.0 55 |-20.8 * o 15000 5.7 277 20 54 |-19.4 . * o 14500 5.5 54 |-16.9 . * o 14000 5.4 53 |-14.4 . * o 13500 5.2 53 |-11.9 . * o 13000 5.0 53 | -9.4 . * o 12500 4.9 246 18 53 | -6.9 . * o 12000 4.2 245 18 52 | -4.9 . * o 11500 3.0 51 | -3.4 . *o 11000 1.7 50 | -2.0 . *o 10500 0.5 48 | -0.6 . *o 10000 -0.8 47 | 0.8 . o* 9500 -2.1 280 19 46 | 2.2 . o* 9000 -2.0 282 20 46 | 5.0 . o* 8500 -1.8 46 | 7.8 . o 8000 -2.0 46 | 10.3 . o* 7500 -2.1 294 22 46 | 12.8 . o* 7000 -2.7 45 | 14.9 .o* 6500 -3.5 45 | 16.8 .o* 6000 -4.2 44 | 18.7 .o * 5500 -5.0 43 | 20.6 .o * 5000 -5.8 42 | 22.5 o * 4500 -6.6 290 27 41 | 24.4 o * 4000 -7.5 41 | 26.2 .o * 3500 -8.4 40 | 27.9 .o * 3000 -9.3 39 | 29.7 .o * 2500 -10.2 295 29 38 | 31.5 .o * 2000 -10.9 37 | 33.5 .o * 1500 -11.5 36 | 35.5 . o * 1000 -12.2 36 | 37.5 . o * 500 -12.8 290 11 35 ! 39.5 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@10316 95 5399 4917 5488 0 82 3973 6343 6599 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 11-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from TCM MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 48.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 48.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 48.9 F Surface elev Temp: 36.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 37.5 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1100 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 36.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 37.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11819 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3305 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.0 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 27.8 325 31 76 |-13.6 * . o 17500 27.3 75 |-11.4 * . o 17000 26.8 320 31 75 | -9.3 * . o 16500 26.2 74 | -7.2 * . o 16000 25.6 74 | -5.2 * . o 15500 25.0 73 | -3.1 * . o 15000 24.3 72 | -1.1 * . o 14500 23.7 322 34 72 | 1.0 * . o 14000 22.9 71 | 2.9 * . o 13500 22.2 70 | 4.8 * . o 13000 21.5 69 | 6.7 * . o 12500 20.3 334 38 68 | 8.2 * .o 12000 17.6 341 33 66 | 8.2 * .o 11500 16.5 65 | 9.8 * . o 11000 15.5 64 | 11.5 * . o 10500 14.5 355 31 63 | 13.2 * . o 10000 13.9 62 | 15.2 * . o 9500 13.2 008 28 61 | 17.2 * . o 9000 12.6 61 | 19.3 * . o 8500 12.0 022 24 60 | 21.4 * . o 8000 11.9 023 23 60 | 24.0 * . o 7500 12.0 025 23 60 | 26.6 *. o 7000 12.0 027 22 60 | 29.3 * o 6500 12.1 028 22 60 | 32.1 * o 6000 11.8 030 20 60 | 34.5 . * o 5500 11.3 031 17 59 | 36.7 . * o 5000 8.7 57 | 36.8 . * o 4500 6.1 54 | 36.9 . * o 4000 3.6 52 | 37.0 . * o 3500 1.0 49 | 37.1 . *o 3000 -1.6 46 | 37.2 . o* 2500 -4.1 44 | 37.3 . o * 2000 -6.7 41 | 37.4 . o * 1500 -9.3 39 ! 37.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 3305 -1 -5982 9287 9491 0 -1 -5982 9287 9491 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98022 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98022 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html