DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Enumclaw, WA on TUE Aug 31 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2692,4269 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2454 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1577 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 2 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 266 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1394 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 98% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2595 ft LCL= 1683 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 3291,4958 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3188 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: +23 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 4357,5260 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3777 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTCM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at UIL @ 08/31:12Z for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 2692, 4269 Hcrit= 2454 HgtVar=1577 B/S= 2 W*= 266 WxC Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 3500, 5076 Hcrit= 3350 HgtVar=1324 B/S= 3 W*= 332 AVG Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 3083, 4666 Hcrit= 2927 HgtVar=1484 B/S= 3 W*= 300 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 1548, 2193 Hcrit= 1100 HgtVar= 657 B/S= 4 W*= 122 MAPSanl:08/31:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 77.9 > 60.0 pm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: -1537 (-23.3F) MAPS10h:09/01:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 2909, 4900 Hcrit= 3039 HgtVar=1738 B/S= 6 W*= 299 ETAanal:08/31:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: -1251 (-5.7F) ETA12hr:09/01:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 3291, 4958 Hcrit= 3188 HgtVar=1503 B/S= 8 W*= 316 ETA24hr:09/01:12Z WEDpm NWS Tmax= 63 > Change@TI=+4: +23 (+0.1F) ETA36hr:09/02:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 71 > TI=-4,0@ 4357, 5260 Hcrit= 3777 HgtVar= 797 B/S=18 W*= 404 ETA48hr:09/02:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 31-AUG-2010 12 UTC TI report from UIL OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 60.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 62.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 62.4 F Raob est. max temp: 66.2 F Surface elev Temp: 51.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 53.6 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 203 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2589 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 47.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 50.2 F Lifted Index @700mb: 3.9 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 391 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 1767 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 2158 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 3079 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 20 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 20 kt Convection overcast height: 3855 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4278 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 34.8 95 | 6.8 * . o 17500 33.9 94 | 8.6 * . o 17000 33.0 93 | 10.4 * . o 16500 32.2 282 32 92 | 12.3 * .o 16000 31.1 91 | 13.8 * .o 15500 29.8 90 | 15.2 * .o 15000 28.6 89 | 16.7 * .o 14500 27.3 87 | 18.1 * .o 14000 26.1 86 | 19.5 * .o 13500 24.9 85 | 21.0 * .o 13000 23.6 84 | 22.4 * .o 12500 22.4 82 | 23.9 * .o 12000 21.2 81 | 25.3 * .o 11500 19.9 80 | 26.7 * o 11000 18.7 79 | 28.2 * .o 10500 17.7 271 17 78 | 29.8 * .o 10000 17.2 265 20 77 | 32.0 * .o 9500 15.5 76 | 33.0 * o 9000 13.4 270 26 73 | 33.5 * o 8500 12.5 72 | 35.3 * o 8000 11.6 72 | 37.1 * o 7500 10.7 260 30 71 | 38.9 * o 7000 8.5 69 | 39.4 * o 6500 6.4 66 | 39.9 * o 6000 4.4 236 26 64 | 40.6 * o 5500 3.1 63 | 42.0 *o 5000 1.8 220 23 62 | 43.4 *o 4500 0.6 61 | 44.8 *o 4000 -0.7 59 | 46.2 o* 3500 -2.0 58 | 47.6 o* 3000 -3.2 57 | 49.0 .o* 2500 -4.5 210 20 55 | 50.4 o * 2000 -6.0 54 | 51.5 o * 1500 -7.6 52 | 52.7 o * 1000 -9.1 51 | 53.8 o * 500 -10.6 165 12 49 ! 55.0 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 4278 98 2595 1683 2115 0 84 875 3403 3681 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 1-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from TCM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 60.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 79.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 79.6 F Surface elev Temp: 77.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 79.6 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1100 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 77.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 79.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15224 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 27.1 87 | 16.4 * . o 17500 27.1 87 | 19.0 * . o 17000 27.0 87 | 21.6 * . o 16500 27.0 87 | 24.2 * . o 16000 26.9 87 | 26.9 * . o 15500 26.9 87 | 29.5 * . o 15000 26.8 87 | 32.1 * . o 14500 26.7 87 | 34.7 * . o 14000 26.7 87 | 37.3 * . o 13500 26.6 87 | 39.9 * . o 13000 26.6 87 | 42.6 * . o 12500 26.5 87 | 45.2 * . o 12000 26.5 176 23 86 | 47.8 * . o 11500 25.7 169 22 86 | 49.7 * . o 11000 25.3 158 21 85 | 52.0 *. o 10500 24.8 148 20 85 | 54.1 *. o 10000 24.4 136 19 84 | 56.4 * o 9500 23.9 124 18 84 | 58.5 .* o 9000 23.4 113 18 83 | 60.7 . * o 8500 23.3 104 18 83 | 63.3 . * o 8000 23.2 100 18 83 | 65.9 . * o 7500 23.3 096 18 83 | 68.7 . * o 7000 23.3 092 18 83 | 71.3 . * o 6500 23.3 089 17 83 | 74.0 . * o 6000 23.4 086 17 83 | 76.7 . * o 5500 22.6 082 14 83 | 78.7 . * o 5000 20.1 80 | 78.8 . * o 4500 17.5 77 | 78.9 . * o 4000 14.9 75 | 79.0 . * o 3500 12.3 72 | 79.1 . * o 3000 9.8 70 | 79.2 . * o 2500 7.2 67 | 79.3 . * o 2000 4.6 65 | 79.4 . * o 1500 2.1 62 ! 79.5 . * o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98022 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98022 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html