DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on THU Sep 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 13710,15656 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 13363 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2250 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 786 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -606 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 54% PM= 42% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1984 ft LCL= 15531 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3141 ft LCL= 18650 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 11300,14642 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 12275 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -680 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 11083,13545 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 11250 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 09/02:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@16033,17500 Hcrit=15091 HgtVar=2000 B/S= 9 W*= 937 MAPS WxC Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@14714,16700 Hcrit=14330 HgtVar=1754 B/S= 9 W*= 860 MAPS AVG Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@15437,17045 Hcrit=14664 HgtVar=1955 B/S= 9 W*= 897 ETA NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@11388,13812 Hcrit=11636 HgtVar=2500 B/S=16 W*= 635 ETA WxC Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@10187,12500 Hcrit=10426 HgtVar=2562 B/S=14 W*= 545 ETA AVG Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@10812,13142 Hcrit=11019 HgtVar=2545 B/S=15 W*= 589 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@16033,17500 Hcrit=15091 HgtVar=2000 B/S= 9 W*= 937 MAPSanl:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 88 > Change@TI=+4: -1796 (-4.7F) MAPS9h:09/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@11388,13812 Hcrit=11636 HgtVar=2500 B/S=16 W*= 635 ETAanal:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 88 > Change@TI=+4: +584 (+1.3F) ETA12hr:09/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@11300,14642 Hcrit=12275 HgtVar=2608 B/S= 9 W*= 640 ETA24hr:09/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 88 > Change@TI=+4: -680 (-1.4F) ETA36hr:09/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@11083,13545 Hcrit=11250 HgtVar=1746 B/S= 6 W*= 566 ETA48hr:09/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 88.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 89.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 89.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16866 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 19 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 17515 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.3 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 4.9 93 | 14.6 19500 4.0 92 | 16.4 19000 3.0 297 39 91 | 18.1 18500 2.1 296 37 90 | 19.8 18000 1.0 89 | 21.4 17500 -0.0 88 | 23.1 17000 -1.1 292 34 87 | 24.7 16500 -2.6 85 | 25.8 16000 -4.1 288 30 84 | 27.0 * 15500 -4.9 83 | 28.9 * 15000 -5.6 82 | 30.9 o * 14500 -6.3 82 | 32.8 o * 14000 -7.1 291 22 81 | 34.7 o * 13500 -7.5 81 | 37.0 o * 13000 -7.7 80 | 39.4 o * 12500 -8.0 80 | 41.8 o * 12000 -8.3 80 | 44.2 o * 11500 -8.6 273 13 79 | 46.5 o * 11000 -8.9 289 15 79 | 49.0 o * 10500 -9.4 300 15 79 | 51.1 o * 10000 -9.9 304 16 78 | 53.3 o * 9500 -10.7 313 16 77 | 55.1 o * 9000 -11.5 321 17 77 | 57.0 . o * 8500 -12.8 330 17 75 | 58.4 . o * 8000 -15.3 339 17 73 | 58.5 . o * 7500 -18.5 002 17 69 | 58.0 . o * 7000 -21.1 009 17 67 | 58.1 . o * 6500 -22.5 000 15 65 | 59.4 . o * 6000 -22.7 342 13 65 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -26.4 333 7 62 ! 60.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@17515 54 1984 15531 19200 0 38 -282 17797 19200 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 88.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 89.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 89.3 F Surface elev Temp: 64.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 65.8 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 64.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 65.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18938 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 21 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 15509 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 8.2 96 | 17.4 19500 7.7 316 32 96 | 19.5 19000 6.9 95 | 21.4 18500 6.2 94 | 23.4 18000 5.6 94 | 25.4 17500 4.9 93 | 27.4 17000 4.2 92 | 29.4 16500 3.5 92 | 31.4 16000 2.6 303 35 91 | 33.1 o 15500 -0.0 297 38 88 | 33.1 o* 15000 -2.7 292 39 85 | 33.2 o * 14500 -6.6 81 | 31.9 o * 14000 -7.4 81 | 33.8 o * 13500 -8.2 80 | 35.6 o * 13000 -9.1 282 33 79 | 37.5 o * 12500 -11.0 77 | 38.3 o * 12000 -14.7 288 25 73 | 37.2 o * 11500 -19.2 315 18 69 | 35.3 o * 11000 -20.0 68 | 37.2 o * 10500 -20.8 344 12 67 | 39.1 o * 10000 -21.2 354 12 67 | 41.4 o * 9500 -21.5 012 12 66 | 43.7 o * 9000 -21.5 022 13 66 | 46.4 o * 8500 -21.6 027 14 66 | 49.0 o * 8000 -21.5 032 16 67 | 51.8 o * 7500 -21.5 035 16 67 | 54.4 o * 7000 -21.5 036 17 67 | 57.1 o * 6500 -21.4 037 17 67 | 59.8 o * 6000 -21.3 038 16 67 | 62.6 o * 5500 -21.6 039 14 66 ! 65.0 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@15509 75 450 15059 21678 0 42 -3141 18650 21678 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html