DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on FRI Feb 5 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5945,7255 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5644 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2566 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 3 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 226 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -501 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 48% PM= 39% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6301 ft LCL= 12643 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5136 ft LCL= 10747 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 6687,8833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7081 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +475 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 10545,12857 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10953 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 02/05:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 5836, 6344 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=2798 B/S= 4 W*= 192 MAPS WxC Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 5836, 6344 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=2798 B/S= 4 W*= 192 MAPS AVG Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 5836, 6344 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=2798 B/S= 4 W*= 192 ETA NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 6055, 8166 Hcrit= 6289 HgtVar=2334 B/S= 2 W*= 260 ETA WxC Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 6055, 8166 Hcrit= 6289 HgtVar=2334 B/S= 2 W*= 260 ETA AVG Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 6055, 8166 Hcrit= 6289 HgtVar=2334 B/S= 2 W*= 260 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 5836, 6344 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=2798 B/S= 4 W*= 192 MAPSanl:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: -667 (-2.6F) MAPS9h:02/06:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 6055, 8166 Hcrit= 6289 HgtVar=2334 B/S= 2 W*= 260 ETAanal:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: -335 (-1.8F) ETA12hr:02/06:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 6687, 8833 Hcrit= 7081 HgtVar=1595 B/S= 2 W*= 317 ETA24hr:02/06:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: +475 (+2.3F) ETA36hr:02/07:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@10545,12857 Hcrit=10953 HgtVar=3643 B/S=15 W*= 652 ETA48hr:02/07:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 5-Feb-2010 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 41.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 41.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 41.5 F Surface elev Temp: 25.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 25.7 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 25.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 25.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13789 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6342 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 26.4 67 |-12.3 19500 25.5 67 |-10.5 o 19000 24.6 322 66 66 | -8.8 o 18500 23.4 64 | -7.3 o 18000 22.0 322 64 63 | -6.0 o 17500 20.6 322 63 62 | -4.7 o 17000 19.1 323 59 60 | -3.6 o 16500 17.3 58 | -2.7 o 16000 15.5 324 54 57 | -1.8 o 15500 14.3 55 | -0.4 o 15000 13.2 54 | 1.2 * o 14500 12.2 327 45 53 | 2.8 * o 14000 11.3 52 | 4.7 * o 13500 10.5 51 | 6.5 * o 13000 9.6 51 | 8.3 * o 12500 8.8 328 39 50 | 10.2 * o 12000 8.1 49 | 12.1 * o 11500 7.4 48 | 14.1 * o 11000 6.6 48 | 16.0 * o 10500 5.9 322 33 47 | 18.0 . * o 10000 5.3 315 30 46 | 20.0 . * o 9500 4.5 46 | 21.9 . * o 9000 3.8 305 26 45 | 23.9 . * o 8500 3.2 306 23 44 | 25.9 . * o 8000 2.9 308 20 44 | 28.3 . * o 7500 2.7 313 18 44 | 30.8 . * o 7000 2.3 321 17 43 | 33.0 . * o 6500 0.9 322 17 42 | 34.3 . *o 6000 -2.0 322 14 39 | 34.1 . o * 5500 -8.1 010 9 33 ! 30.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@ 6342 48 -6301 12643 18348 0 29 -6889 13231 18348 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 6-Feb-2010 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 41.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 41.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 41.7 F Surface elev Temp: 37.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 38.6 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 37.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 38.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11595 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5611 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 31.1 72 | -7.4 o 19500 30.6 302 42 72 | -5.2 o 19000 29.6 71 | -3.6 o 18500 28.4 299 38 69 | -2.1 o 18000 26.7 299 37 68 | -1.1 o 17500 24.2 300 36 65 | -1.0 o 17000 22.9 64 | 0.5 . o 16500 21.7 307 35 63 | 1.9 . o 16000 20.0 61 | 2.9 . o 15500 18.3 310 35 59 | 3.8 . o 15000 16.5 310 34 57 | 4.7 * . o 14500 14.6 56 | 5.5 * . o 14000 12.6 312 31 54 | 6.2 * . o 13500 11.1 52 | 7.4 * . o 13000 9.6 311 29 51 | 8.6 * . o 12500 9.2 50 | 10.8 * . o 12000 8.9 50 | 13.2 * o 11500 8.7 50 | 15.6 . * o 11000 8.4 49 | 18.0 . * o 10500 8.1 49 | 20.4 . * o 10000 7.9 286 18 49 | 22.8 . * o 9500 7.6 49 | 25.2 . * o 9000 7.4 278 15 48 | 27.7 . * o 8500 6.6 272 12 48 | 29.6 . * o 8000 5.7 257 8 47 | 31.3 . * o 7500 4.2 210 4 45 | 32.5 . * o 7000 2.3 144 7 43 | 33.3 . * o 6500 1.1 123 11 42 | 34.7 . *o 6000 0.8 113 14 42 | 37.1 . *o 5500 -0.2 110 12 41 ! 38.8 . o* CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@ 5611 39 -5130 10741 12835 0 39 -5136 10747 12835 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html