DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on FRI Oct 10 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 11811,13013 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 11213 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1323 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 4 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 729 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +7053 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 15% PM= 21% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6769 ft LCL= 19319 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3605 ft LCL= 17766 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 17700,19178 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 16682 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -4690 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 10521,11391 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9857 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 10/10:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@11388,12558 Hcrit=10820 HgtVar=1192 B/S= 4 W*= 704 MAPS WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@11111,12250 Hcrit=10529 HgtVar=1191 B/S= 3 W*= 672 MAPS AVG Tmax=54.5> TI=-4,0@11250,12406 Hcrit=10676 HgtVar=1187 B/S= 4 W*= 688 ETA NWS Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@12235,13468 Hcrit=11606 HgtVar=1455 B/S= 5 W*= 754 ETA WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@11933,13156 Hcrit=11308 HgtVar=1382 B/S= 4 W*= 720 ETA AVG Tmax=54.5> TI=-4,0@12088,13312 Hcrit=11456 HgtVar=1418 B/S= 4 W*= 736 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@11388,12558 Hcrit=10820 HgtVar=1192 B/S= 4 W*= 704 MAPSanl:10/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 55 > Change@TI=+4: +7990 (+31.7F) MAPS10h:10/11:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@12235,13468 Hcrit=11606 HgtVar=1455 B/S= 5 W*= 754 ETAanal:10/10:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 55 > Change@TI=+4: +6117 (+21.3F) ETA12hr:10/11:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@17700,19178 Hcrit=16682 HgtVar=1374 B/S= 6 W*=1108 ETA24hr:10/11:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 55 > Change@TI=+4: -4690 (-14.7F) ETA36hr:10/12:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@10521,11391 Hcrit= 9857 HgtVar=1020 B/S= 5 W*= 661 ETA48hr:10/12:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 10-Oct-2008 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 55.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 55.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 55.2 F Surface elev Temp: 36.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 36.6 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 78 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5321 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 35.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 35.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15493 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 25 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 36 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12550 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 17.3 72 | -7.7 19500 16.7 306 80 72 | -5.6 19000 15.8 71 | -3.9 18500 14.8 309 79 70 | -2.1 18000 13.9 308 79 69 | -0.3 17500 13.0 68 | 1.4 17000 12.1 67 | 3.2 o 16500 11.2 311 75 66 | 5.0 o 16000 10.2 65 | 6.6 o 15500 9.2 64 | 8.3 o 15000 8.2 315 72 63 | 9.9 * o 14500 6.5 62 | 10.9 * o 14000 4.8 319 69 60 | 11.9 * o 13500 3.2 58 | 12.9 * o 13000 1.5 323 65 56 | 13.9 * o 12500 -0.2 55 | 14.9 o 12000 -1.8 325 57 53 | 15.9 o * 11500 -3.6 325 48 51 | 16.9 o * 11000 -5.4 50 | 17.8 o * 10500 -7.2 325 41 48 | 18.6 o * 10000 -9.1 331 38 46 | 19.4 o * 9500 -10.8 328 36 44 | 20.3 o * 9000 -11.7 43 | 22.1 o * 8500 -12.6 42 | 23.9 o * 8000 -13.5 42 | 25.7 o * 7500 -14.3 41 | 27.5 o * 7000 -15.2 40 | 29.3 o * 6500 -16.0 337 26 39 | 31.1 o * 6000 -16.8 38 | 33.0 o * 5500 -17.6 345 25 37 | 34.9 o * 5000 -18.5 348 25 36 ! 36.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@12550 15 -6769 19319 25840 0 14 -9153 21703 25840 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 11-Oct-2008 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 55.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 55.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 55.7 F Surface elev Temp: 38.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 39.1 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 78 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5370 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 36.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 37.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9788 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 29 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 33 kt Convection overcast height: 19260 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 21371 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.4 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 -1.9 53 |-26.5 19500 -2.7 011 42 52 |-24.5 19000 -3.4 52 |-22.7 18500 -4.2 51 |-20.8 18000 -5.0 013 40 50 |-18.9 17500 -5.8 011 40 49 |-17.0 17000 -6.4 49 |-15.0 16500 -7.1 48 |-12.9 * 16000 -7.7 47 |-10.9 * 15500 -8.3 011 38 47 | -8.8 * 15000 -8.9 46 | -6.8 o * 14500 -9.5 45 | -4.7 o * 14000 -10.2 45 | -2.6 o * 13500 -10.8 44 | -0.6 o * 13000 -11.4 010 31 44 | 1.5 o * 12500 -12.8 42 | 2.7 o * 12000 -14.5 40 | 3.7 o * 11500 -16.2 011 28 39 | 4.6 o * 11000 -16.3 39 | 7.2 o * 10500 -16.3 39 | 9.9 o * 10000 -16.4 022 28 39 | 12.5 o * 9500 -16.4 39 | 15.2 . o * 9000 -16.4 39 | 17.8 . o * 8500 -16.4 39 | 20.5 . o * 8000 -16.4 39 | 23.2 . o * 7500 -16.4 39 | 25.8 . o * 7000 -16.4 39 | 28.5 . o * 6500 -16.5 39 | 31.1 . o * 6000 -16.5 39 | 33.8 . o * 5500 -16.5 020 29 39 | 36.5 . o * 5000 -16.5 018 29 38 ! 39.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@21371 40 6166 15205 17064 0 21 3605 17766 18294 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html