DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 10333,9133 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7988 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1978 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 3 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 375 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -5442 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 87% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 4516 ft LCL= 8285 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2937 ft LCL= 11010 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 5653,7000 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5000 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +300 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 6000,7818 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5967 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KRBL 031129Z 0312/0412 35006KT P6SM FEW250 FM040000 01005KT P6SM SCT250 FM040300 VRB05KT P6SM SCT250 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@10333,12785 Hcrit=10976 HgtVar=3215 B/S= 5 W*= 693 MAPS WxC Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@11428,14333 Hcrit=12349 HgtVar=3417 B/S= 5 W*= 795 MAPS AVG Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@10850,13500 Hcrit=11612 HgtVar=3416 B/S= 5 W*= 742 ETA NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ -, 5481 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 2 W*= 58 ETA WxC Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 5111, 5851 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar= 749 B/S= 4 W*= 98 ETA AVG Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ -, 5666 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 3 W*= 78 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@10333,12785 Hcrit=10976 HgtVar=3215 B/S= 5 W*= 693 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: +197 (+0.4F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ -, 5481 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 2 W*= 58 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: -11081 (+5.7F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 5653, 7000 Hcrit= 5000 HgtVar=1043 B/S= 4 W*= 194 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: +300 (+3.1F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 6000, 7818 Hcrit= 5967 HgtVar=1265 B/S=11 W*= 245 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 46.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 47.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 47.1 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10216 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 25 kt Convection overcast height: 10774 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12801 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 8.7 55 |-24.4 19500 8.1 54 |-22.3 19000 7.6 54 |-20.2 18500 7.0 027 18 53 |-18.1 18000 6.3 029 19 52 |-16.1 17500 5.7 52 |-14.0 17000 5.1 51 |-11.9 16500 4.5 51 | -9.8 16000 4.0 040 23 50 | -7.8 15500 3.4 49 | -5.7 o 15000 2.8 49 | -3.6 *.o 14500 2.2 48 | -1.5 *.o 14000 1.6 48 | 0.6 *.o 13500 1.0 053 31 47 | 2.7 *o 13000 0.3 46 | 4.6 o 12500 -0.4 46 | 6.6 o 12000 -1.2 45 | 8.5 o* 11500 -1.9 054 32 44 | 10.5 o * 11000 -2.7 43 | 12.3 o * 10500 -3.7 42 | 14.0 o * 10000 -4.6 052 29 41 | 15.8 o * 9500 -5.9 051 27 40 | 17.2 o * 9000 -9.1 053 26 37 | 16.6 o * 8500 -10.8 052 24 35 | 17.5 o * 8000 -11.5 034 23 34 | 19.5 o * 7500 -12.5 030 23 34 | 21.2 o. * 7000 -13.7 026 26 32 | 22.6 o. * 6500 -15.0 019 25 31 | 24.0 o. * 6000 -16.0 005 19 30 | 25.7 o. * 5500 -17.2 002 14 29 ! 27.2 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@12801 100 4516 8285 7969 0 93 2364 10437 10558 90 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 46.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 47.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 47.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5000 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10141 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 29 kt Convection overcast height: 11463 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13947 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 8.3 54 |-24.7 19500 8.1 54 |-22.3 19000 7.8 54 |-19.9 18500 7.6 54 |-17.5 18000 7.3 022 24 53 |-15.1 17500 6.4 52 |-13.3 17000 5.1 51 |-11.9 16500 4.0 031 28 50 |-10.3 16000 3.2 49 | -8.5 15500 2.4 48 | -6.6 15000 1.7 48 | -4.7 *o 14500 0.9 031 29 47 | -2.8 . *o 14000 0.1 46 | -0.9 . o 13500 -0.7 45 | 1.0 . o 13000 -1.5 035 29 45 | 2.9 .o * 12500 -2.5 44 | 4.6 . o * 12000 -3.6 42 | 6.1 .o * 11500 -4.7 41 | 7.7 .o * 11000 -5.8 40 | 9.2 .o * 10500 -6.9 041 28 39 | 10.8 o * 10000 -8.1 039 30 38 | 12.2 .o * 9500 -9.4 038 32 37 | 13.6 o * 9000 -11.3 027 39 35 | 14.4 o * 8500 -12.2 023 38 34 | 16.2 o * 8000 -12.8 016 37 33 | 18.3 o * 7500 -13.2 012 35 33 | 20.5 o * 7000 -13.7 006 32 32 | 22.7 o * 6500 -14.3 002 30 32 | 24.7 o. * 6000 -15.1 355 24 31 | 26.6 o * 5500 -16.0 352 19 30 ! 28.4 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@13947 100 5040 8907 8470 0 87 2937 11010 11217 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html