DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MTwilliams on SAT Jul 4 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6100,13441 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 10622 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1885 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 18 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 434 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -341 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +6 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 44% PM= 11% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3699 ft LCL= 17153 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -8744 ft LCL= 21714 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 9642,11576 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9420 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -746 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 9166,10769 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8914 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRBL ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at MYV @ 07/04:12Z for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 5700,13454 Hcrit=10665 HgtVar=1608 B/S=11 W*= 440 MAPS WxC Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@14307,15687 Hcrit=13246 HgtVar=1375 B/S=18 W*= 711 MAPS AVG Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@13000,14692 Hcrit=12168 HgtVar=1308 B/S=15 W*= 590 ETA NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 6500,13428 Hcrit=10579 HgtVar=2162 B/S=26 W*= 428 ETA WxC Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@14681,16458 Hcrit=13883 HgtVar=1708 B/S=26 W*= 729 ETA AVG Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@12714,15136 Hcrit=12510 HgtVar=1773 B/S=27 W*= 594 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 5700,13454 Hcrit=10665 HgtVar=1608 B/S=11 W*= 440 MAPSanl:07/04:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: -116 (-1.2F) MAPS9h:07/05:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at MYV for Sfc= 5000 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 6500,13428 Hcrit=10579 HgtVar=2162 B/S=26 W*= 428 ETAanal:07/04:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: -567 (-2.8F) ETA12hr:07/05:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 78 > TI=-4,0@ 9642,11576 Hcrit= 9420 HgtVar=1632 B/S= 6 W*= 443 ETA24hr:07/05:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 78 > Change@TI=+4: -746 (-2.4F) ETA36hr:07/06:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 9166,10769 Hcrit= 8914 HgtVar=1538 B/S= 4 W*= 453 ETA48hr:07/06:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 4-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from MYV MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 78.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 78.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 79.1 F Surface elev Temp: 72.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 73.8 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 55 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5075 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 72.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 73.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14020 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 1 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13454 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 14.0 92 | 12.6 19500 13.5 91 | 14.7 19000 13.0 217 12 91 | 16.9 18500 12.2 90 | 18.8 18000 11.5 89 | 20.7 17500 10.7 89 | 22.6 17000 9.9 197 13 88 | 24.5 16500 8.5 86 | 25.7 o 16000 7.0 179 12 85 | 26.9 o 15500 5.4 83 | 28.0 o 15000 3.8 168 10 82 | 29.1 * o 14500 2.5 81 | 30.5 * o 14000 1.3 169 5 79 | 31.9 *o 13500 0.1 78 | 33.4 o 13000 -1.0 77 | 35.0 o* 12500 -2.1 287 4 76 | 36.6 o* 12000 -2.7 75 | 38.6 o * 11500 -3.0 75 | 41.0 o * 11000 -3.2 292 10 75 | 43.5 o * 10500 -3.1 298 13 75 | 46.2 o * 10000 -3.1 302 14 75 | 48.9 o * 9500 -3.1 303 14 75 | 51.6 o * 9000 -3.1 298 13 75 | 54.2 o * 8500 -3.2 297 12 75 | 56.9 o * 8000 -3.1 75 | 59.6 o * 7500 -3.1 297 10 75 | 62.3 o * 7000 -3.0 290 8 75 | 65.0 o * 6500 -3.2 292 4 75 | 67.5 o * 6000 -3.7 304 2 74 | 69.7 o * 5500 -4.2 259 1 74 | 71.8 o * 5000 -5.0 228 1 73 ! 73.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@13454 44 -3699 17153 21775 0 39 -4409 17863 21775 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 5-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from MYV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 78.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 78.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 78.6 F Surface elev Temp: 73.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 74.1 F Surface elevation: 5000 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 55 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5032 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 73.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 74.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16074 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12970 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 16.1 94 | 14.4 19500 15.3 93 | 16.3 19000 14.4 229 21 92 | 18.1 18500 13.5 230 20 92 | 19.9 18000 12.4 90 | 21.4 17500 11.3 89 | 23.0 17000 10.3 231 15 88 | 24.6 16500 9.4 87 | 26.4 o 16000 8.4 226 11 86 | 28.2 o 15500 6.7 85 | 29.1 o 15000 4.8 232 9 83 | 29.8 * o 14500 4.0 82 | 31.8 * o 14000 3.4 81 | 33.8 * o 13500 2.8 201 10 81 | 35.9 * o 13000 0.1 78 | 35.9 o 12500 -2.0 196 11 76 | 36.4 o* 12000 -2.2 76 | 38.9 o * 11500 -2.4 193 8 76 | 41.3 o * 11000 -2.6 75 | 43.8 o * 10500 -2.8 191 7 75 | 46.3 o * 10000 -2.8 185 6 75 | 49.0 o * 9500 -2.8 176 5 75 | 51.6 o * 9000 -2.9 165 3 75 | 54.2 o * 8500 -3.2 132 1 75 | 56.6 o * 8000 -3.4 003 2 75 | 59.0 o * 7500 -3.6 342 3 74 | 61.5 o * 7000 -3.9 74 | 63.9 o * 6500 -4.1 329 4 74 | 66.3 o * 6000 -4.2 322 4 74 | 69.0 o * 5500 -4.2 316 4 74 | 71.6 o * 5000 -4.4 310 4 74 ! 74.1 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5000 TI=0@12970 12 -8101 21071 26013 0 11 -8744 21714 26013 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95987 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95987 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html