DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MINDEN on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8242,8533 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7347 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 333 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 474 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +283 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 59% PM= 96% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1524 ft LCL= 10060 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2464 ft LCL= 10733 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 7461,8725 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7381 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +211 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7750,9625 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8117 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KRNO 031120Z 0312/0412 VRB04KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 8242, 8533 Hcrit= 7347 HgtVar= 333 B/S=11 W*= 474 WxC Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 8314, 8616 Hcrit= 7437 HgtVar= 334 B/S=11 W*= 490 AVG Tmax=46.5> TI=-4,0@ 8278, 8575 Hcrit= 7392 HgtVar= 333 B/S=11 W*= 482 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at REV for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 9615,11714 Hcrit=10010 HgtVar=2952 B/S= 5 W*= 650 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: +447 (+1.0F) MAPS9h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at RNO for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 7420, 8183 Hcrit= 6993 HgtVar= 608 B/S=11 W*= 423 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: +120 (+0.9F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 7461, 8725 Hcrit= 7381 HgtVar= 965 B/S=10 W*= 434 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 46 > Change@TI=+4: +211 (+1.1F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 7750, 9625 Hcrit= 8117 HgtVar=1190 B/S= 9 W*= 480 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 3-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 46.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 46.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 46.7 F Raob est. max temp: 60.8 F Surface elev Temp: 26.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.4 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.4 F Lifted Index @700mb: 15.1 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 7817 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 10170 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 20426 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 12878 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8536 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 33.5 024 25 80 | -1.7 o 19500 32.5 79 | 0.0 o 19000 31.3 77 | 1.4 o 18500 30.1 015 20 76 | 2.9 o 18000 29.2 008 20 75 | 4.6 * o 17500 28.9 75 | 7.1 * o 17000 28.8 75 | 9.7 * o 16500 28.7 75 | 12.2 * o 16000 28.6 75 | 14.8 * o 15500 28.5 75 | 17.4 * o 15000 28.4 002 18 74 | 20.0 * o 14500 27.9 74 | 22.1 * o 14000 27.2 011 16 73 | 24.1 * o 13500 25.6 72 | 25.1 * o 13000 23.8 018 17 70 | 26.0 * o 12500 23.0 69 | 27.8 * o 12000 22.3 68 | 29.8 * o 11500 21.6 016 16 68 | 31.8 * o 11000 19.4 65 | 32.3 * o 10500 17.0 63 | 32.5 * o 10000 14.5 355 15 61 | 32.8 * o 9500 9.2 021 13 55 | 30.1 * o 9000 5.6 035 13 52 | 29.2 * o 8500 -0.4 069 12 46 | 25.8 . o* 8000 -7.4 108 12 39 | 21.5 . o * 7500 -10.9 35 | 20.7 . o * 7000 -11.8 34 | 22.5 . o * 6500 -12.6 33 | 24.3 . o * 6000 -13.5 32 | 26.1 . o * 5500 -14.4 119 6 32 | 27.9 . o * 5000 -17.2 112 5 29 ! 27.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@ 8536 59 -1524 10060 20890 0 38 -4292 12828 20890 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from REV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 46.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 47.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 47.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.2 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10168 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 29 kt Convection overcast height: 10761 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13197 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 10.1 56 |-24.5 19500 9.9 56 |-22.1 o 19000 9.6 56 |-19.7 o 18500 9.4 55 |-17.3 . o 18000 9.1 019 24 55 |-14.9 * . o 17500 8.9 015 23 55 |-12.4 * . o 17000 6.9 040 30 53 |-11.7 * . o 16500 5.6 52 |-10.4 *. o 16000 4.9 51 | -8.4 * .o 15500 4.1 50 | -6.5 *. o 15000 3.4 49 | -4.6 * o 14500 2.6 038 32 49 | -2.7 *.o 14000 1.6 48 | -1.0 *o 13500 0.6 47 | 0.7 .o 13000 -0.4 040 31 46 | 2.3 .o 12500 -1.5 45 | 3.9 o* 12000 -2.5 43 | 5.6 o * 11500 -3.6 42 | 7.2 o * 11000 -4.6 043 29 41 | 8.8 o * 10500 -5.7 40 | 10.4 o * 10000 -6.8 041 32 39 | 11.9 o * 9500 -7.9 039 34 38 | 13.6 o. * 9000 -9.5 028 39 36 | 14.6 o * 8500 -10.0 023 38 36 | 16.8 o. * 8000 -10.6 014 37 35 | 18.8 o * 7500 -11.4 010 36 35 | 20.8 o * 7000 -12.3 001 33 34 | 22.5 o * 6500 -13.1 358 31 33 | 24.4 o * 6000 -13.9 350 25 32 | 26.2 o * 5500 -14.9 347 20 31 | 27.9 o * 5000 -17.4 29 ! 28.1 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@13197 100 4197 9000 8807 0 96 2464 10733 10854 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89423 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89423 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html