DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for MINDEN on THU Jul 29 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 15000,18500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 15757 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2375 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 888 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -609 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -5 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 81% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1989 ft LCL= 16512 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -9609 ft LCL= 15038 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 13000,16916 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 14418 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -863 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 12888,15312 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 13087 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KRNO ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at REV @ 07/29:12Z for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@15000,18500 Hcrit=15757 HgtVar=2375 B/S=12 W*= 888 WxC Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 9714,13800 Hcrit=11471 HgtVar=4387 B/S=15 W*= 604 AVG Tmax=88.5> TI=-4,0@12500,17500 Hcrit=14735 HgtVar=1812 B/S=12 W*= 775 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at REV for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 9708,12666 Hcrit=10526 HgtVar=3934 B/S= 8 W*= 566 MAPSanl:07/29:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +382 (+0.7F) MAPS9h:07/30:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at RNO for Sfc= 4700 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@14833,18687 Hcrit=15949 HgtVar=2438 B/S=12 W*= 912 ETAanal:07/29:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -1601 (-2.8F) ETA12hr:07/30:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@13000,16916 Hcrit=14418 HgtVar=2034 B/S=10 W*= 847 ETA24hr:07/30:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -863 (-1.7F) ETA36hr:07/31:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@12888,15312 Hcrit=13087 HgtVar=2438 B/S= 8 W*= 813 ETA48hr:07/31:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 29-JUL-2010 12 UTC TI report from REV OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.4 F Raob est. max temp: 81.1 F Surface elev Temp: 67.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 68.6 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 4974 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 67.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 68.6 F Lifted Index @700mb: 4.0 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 13661 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 14469 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 17451 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 19027 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 18501 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 2.6 94 | 13.1 19500 1.8 200 23 93 | 15.0 19000 1.0 197 24 92 | 16.8 18500 -0.0 194 26 91 | 18.5 18000 -1.6 190 27 89 | 19.6 o 17500 -2.5 184 30 88 | 21.3 o* 17000 -3.1 180 32 88 | 23.5 o * 16500 -3.6 180 27 87 | 25.6 . o * 16000 -3.8 87 | 28.1 o * 15500 -3.9 176 21 87 | 30.6 o * 15000 -4.2 87 | 33.1 o * 14500 -4.4 162 18 87 | 35.5 o * 14000 -4.8 86 | 37.8 o * 13500 -5.3 144 17 86 | 40.0 o * 13000 -5.9 85 | 42.0 o * 12500 -6.5 85 | 44.1 o * 12000 -7.1 84 | 46.2 o * 11500 -7.7 108 13 83 | 48.3 o * 11000 -7.9 109 12 83 | 50.7 . o * 10500 -8.2 145 9 83 | 53.1 . o * 10000 -8.6 093 6 82 | 55.3 . o * 9500 -9.3 82 | 57.3 . o * 9000 -10.1 359 0 81 | 59.2 . o * 8500 -11.2 80 | 60.8 . o * 8000 -12.3 270 4 79 | 62.3 . o * 7500 -14.6 291 5 76 | 62.7 . o * 7000 -16.1 75 | 63.9 . o * 6500 -16.7 74 | 66.0 . o * 6000 -17.3 74 | 68.0 . o * 5500 -17.9 73 | 70.0 . o * 5000 -21.3 266 3 70 ! 69.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@18501 81 1989 16512 19291 0 71 103 18398 19291 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 30-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from REV MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.7 F Surface elev Temp: 87.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 90.5 F Surface elevation: 4700 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 4700 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 87.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 90.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15655 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5429 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 14.2 280 9 105 | 26.1 o 19500 12.4 287 7 103 | 26.9 o 19000 10.5 293 5 102 | 27.8 . o 18500 8.4 99 | 28.3 . o 18000 6.2 266 6 97 | 28.8 * .o 17500 5.3 96 | 30.5 *. o 17000 4.6 96 | 32.5 * o 16500 3.9 95 | 34.5 .* o 16000 3.2 94 | 36.4 .* o 15500 2.5 93 | 38.4 . * o 15000 1.8 93 | 40.4 . *o 14500 1.1 196 6 92 | 42.4 . *o 14000 1.1 92 | 45.0 . *o 13500 1.0 92 | 47.7 . o 13000 1.0 92 | 50.3 . *o 12500 0.9 239 2 92 | 52.9 . *o 12000 0.9 288 2 92 | 55.5 . o 11500 0.7 308 2 92 | 58.0 . o 11000 0.7 327 4 92 | 60.7 . *o 10500 0.5 340 5 92 | 63.2 . o 10000 0.5 346 6 92 | 65.8 . o 9500 0.6 347 6 92 | 68.6 . *o 9000 0.6 350 7 92 | 71.2 . o 8500 0.6 352 8 92 | 74.0 . o 8000 0.7 355 8 92 | 76.7 . *o 7500 0.6 358 9 92 | 79.3 . o 7000 0.8 359 9 92 | 82.1 . o 6500 0.7 000 9 92 | 84.8 . *o 6000 0.8 001 9 92 | 87.5 . *o 5500 0.3 001 8 91 | 89.7 . o 5000 -1.9 89 ! 90.2 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 4700 TI=0@ 5429 -1 -9609 15038 15421 0 -1 -9609 15038 15421 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89423 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89423 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html