DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on FRI Jul 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2044,2343 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 1407 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 347 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 326 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -577 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 99% PM= 59% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -440 ft LCL= 2782 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4299 ft LCL= 6465 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 1321,1544 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 230 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +176 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 2284,2593 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1539 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 07/03:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 2044, 2343 Hcrit= 1407 HgtVar= 347 B/S= 7 W*= 326 WxC Tmax= 80 > TI=-4,0@ 1942, 2119 Hcrit= 1190 HgtVar= 298 B/S= 7 W*= 298 AVG Tmax=81.5> TI=-4,0@ 1978, 2231 Hcrit= 1299 HgtVar= 309 B/S= 7 W*= 312 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 2245, 2409 Hcrit= 1469 HgtVar= 334 B/S= 7 W*= 334 MAPSanl:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 83 > Change@TI=+4: -110 (-1.9F) MAPS9h:07/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 2071, 2428 Hcrit= 1314 HgtVar= 357 B/S=26 W*= 291 ETAanal:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 83 > Change@TI=+4: -1044 (-13.9F) ETA12hr:07/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 1321, 1544 Hcrit= 230 HgtVar= 294 B/S= 9 W*= 202 ETA24hr:07/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 83 > Change@TI=+4: +176 (+3.3F) ETA36hr:07/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 2284, 2593 Hcrit= 1539 HgtVar= 313 B/S=10 W*= 324 ETA48hr:07/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 3-JUL-2009 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 83.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.8 F Raob est. max temp: 98.4 F Surface elev Temp: 56.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 59.1 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 381 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 55.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 58.1 F Lifted Index @700mb: 13.3 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 862 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 6288 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 13756 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 8061 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2342 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 16.3 99 | 38.7 o 11500 16.3 99 | 41.3 o 11000 16.2 99 | 43.9 o 10500 16.2 210 4 99 | 46.6 o 10000 16.1 99 | 49.1 * o 9500 15.9 99 | 51.7 * o 9000 15.8 99 | 54.2 * o 8500 15.6 99 | 56.7 * o 8000 15.5 99 | 59.2 * o 7500 15.4 98 | 61.8 * o 7000 15.2 243 10 98 | 64.3 * o 6500 14.4 97 | 66.2 * o 6000 13.7 97 | 68.1 * o 5500 12.9 96 | 70.0 * o 5000 12.2 300 3 95 | 71.9 * o 4500 11.7 314 3 95 | 74.1 * o 4000 10.8 94 | 75.9 * o 3500 9.9 305 4 93 | 77.7 * o 3000 7.1 90 | 77.5 * o 2500 2.1 278 6 85 | 75.3 * o 2000 -4.6 270 9 78 | 71.2 o * 1500 -25.4 271 9 58 | 53.0 .o * 1000 -26.1 57 | 55.0 . o * 500 -26.7 291 7 56 ! 57.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 2342 99 -440 2782 12591 0 41 -5989 8331 12591 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 83.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 86.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 86.0 F Surface elev Temp: 66.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 68.9 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 344 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 66.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 68.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 6633 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2166 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 16.1 99 | 39.2 o 11500 15.8 187 8 99 | 41.6 o 11000 15.5 191 8 99 | 44.0 o 10500 15.3 194 7 98 | 46.5 o 10000 15.1 197 7 98 | 49.0 * o 9500 15.0 205 6 98 | 51.5 * o 9000 14.8 210 5 98 | 54.0 * o 8500 14.6 212 5 98 | 56.4 * o 8000 14.5 212 5 98 | 59.1 * o 7500 14.4 206 4 97 | 61.6 * o 7000 14.1 191 4 97 | 63.9 * o 6500 13.9 172 3 97 | 66.4 * o 6000 13.7 163 2 97 | 68.9 * o 5500 13.4 327 1 96 | 71.2 * o 5000 13.1 323 2 96 | 73.6 * o 4500 13.0 307 3 96 | 76.2 * o 4000 11.8 242 2 95 | 77.7 * o 3500 9.2 228 4 92 | 77.8 * o 3000 6.4 251 7 89 | 77.7 . * o 2500 3.3 254 9 86 | 77.2 . * o 2000 -1.6 253 13 81 | 75.0 . o * 1500 -7.3 275 15 76 | 72.0 . o * 1000 -15.8 275 16 67 | 66.1 . o * 500 -17.2 262 14 66 ! 67.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 2166 71 -1556 3722 10475 0 59 -4299 6465 10475 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html