DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on SUN Sep 7 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2062,2479 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 1412 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1566 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 6 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 307 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +915 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -9 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 36% PM= 29% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5344 ft LCL= 7821 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -7562 ft LCL= 10729 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) MON AM HEIGHTS: 2731,3391 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2267 ftMSL MON PM CHANGE: +1115 ft @TI=+4 TUE AM HEIGHTS: 2405,2958 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1870 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 09/07:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2062, 2479 Hcrit= 1412 HgtVar=1566 B/S= 6 W*= 307 WxC Tmax= 84 > TI=-4,0@ 1241, 1576 Hcrit= 230 HgtVar= 385 B/S= 5 W*= 196 AVG Tmax=88.5> TI=-4,0@ 1625, 2010 Hcrit= 891 HgtVar= 417 B/S= 6 W*= 251 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 1758, 2600 Hcrit= 1467 HgtVar=1500 B/S= 7 W*= 305 MAPSanl:09/07:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: +850 (+4.5F) MAPS11h:09/08:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 1511, 1965 Hcrit= 889 HgtVar= 985 B/S= 9 W*= 253 ETAanal:09/07:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: +980 (+7.4F) ETA12hr:09/08:00Z MONam NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 2731, 3391 Hcrit= 2267 HgtVar=1680 B/S=18 W*= 405 ETA24hr:09/08:12Z MONpm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: +1115 (+4.8F) ETA36hr:09/09:00Z TUEam wxc Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@ 2405, 2958 Hcrit= 1870 HgtVar=1708 B/S=22 W*= 360 ETA48hr:09/09:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 7-SEP-2008 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.3 F Raob est. max temp:100.8 F Surface elev Temp: 62.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 65.8 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1138 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 74.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 76.7 F Lifted Index @700mb: 10.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 663 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 8132 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 15214 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 10775 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2477 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 14.1 107 | 46.4 o 11500 13.5 106 | 48.4 o 11000 12.8 106 | 50.4 o 10500 12.1 195 13 105 | 52.4 o 10000 11.3 104 | 54.3 * o 9500 10.4 103 | 56.0 * o 9000 9.4 102 | 57.8 * o 8500 8.5 248 13 102 | 59.5 * o 8000 8.1 101 | 61.8 * o 7500 7.8 101 | 64.1 * o 7000 7.4 100 | 66.4 * o 6500 7.0 100 | 68.7 * o 6000 6.6 100 | 71.0 * o 5500 6.2 99 | 73.2 * o 5000 5.8 245 10 99 | 75.5 * o 4500 5.0 251 10 98 | 77.4 * o 4000 3.9 97 | 78.9 * o 3500 2.6 96 | 80.4 * o 3000 1.4 94 | 81.8 *o 2500 0.2 295 12 93 | 83.3 o 2000 -4.6 88 | 81.1 o * 1500 -9.9 83 | 78.5 . o * 1000 -16.1 279 7 77 | 75.0 . o * 500 -24.7 68 ! 69.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 2477 36 -5344 7821 15558 0 23 -8222 10699 15558 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 8-Sep-2008 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 96.1 F Surface elev Temp: 65.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 68.8 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 354 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 65.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 68.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10032 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3167 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 13.8 225 18 107 | 46.4 o 11500 13.2 223 16 106 | 48.5 o 11000 12.4 105 | 50.5 o 10500 11.5 221 15 104 | 52.2 o 10000 10.4 221 14 103 | 53.7 * o 9500 9.3 222 14 102 | 55.3 * o 9000 8.2 219 14 101 | 56.9 * o 8500 7.6 218 13 101 | 59.0 * o 8000 6.8 217 12 100 | 60.9 * o 7500 5.9 215 12 99 | 62.7 * o 7000 5.1 218 11 98 | 64.5 * o 6500 4.7 232 11 98 | 66.8 * o 6000 4.1 251 10 97 | 68.9 * o 5500 3.5 265 11 97 | 70.9 * o 5000 3.1 272 11 96 | 73.1 * o 4500 2.3 272 11 95 | 75.0 * o 4000 1.5 264 11 95 | 76.9 * o 3500 0.4 251 11 93 | 78.5 o 3000 -0.2 243 11 93 | 80.5 o 2500 -2.1 243 13 91 | 81.4 o * 2000 -5.1 248 14 88 | 81.0 o * 1500 -13.2 250 14 80 | 75.6 . o * 1000 -25.5 245 13 68 | 66.0 . o * 500 -26.7 243 12 66 ! 67.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 3167 71 -4615 7782 15029 0 29 -7562 10729 15029 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html