DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on TUE Mar 9 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6976,7875 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5950 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 3750 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 6 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 618 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1252 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 86% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3098 ft LCL= 4780 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -9197 ft LCL= 11850 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 4944,6659 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4777 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: -722 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 4194,5150 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3633 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 03/09:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 6976, 7875 Hcrit= 5950 HgtVar=3750 B/S= 6 W*= 618 WxC Tmax= 56 > TI=-4,0@ 6000, 7666 Hcrit= 5715 HgtVar=2084 B/S= 6 W*= 584 AVG Tmax=56.5> TI=-4,0@ 6500, 7770 Hcrit= 5833 HgtVar=2730 B/S= 6 W*= 601 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 3148, 3888 Hcrit= 2608 HgtVar= 741 B/S=12 W*= 412 MAPSanl:03/09:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 57 > Change@TI=+4: -914 (-6.2F) MAPS9h:03/10:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 6125, 8291 Hcrit= 6247 HgtVar=1780 B/S= 5 W*= 612 ETAanal:03/09:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 57 > Change@TI=+4: -1591 (-4.4F) ETA12hr:03/10:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 4944, 6659 Hcrit= 4777 HgtVar= 931 B/S= 4 W*= 507 ETA24hr:03/10:12Z WEDpm NWS Tmax= 57 > Change@TI=+4: -722 (-3.0F) ETA36hr:03/11:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 4194, 5150 Hcrit= 3633 HgtVar= 666 B/S= 9 W*= 476 ETA48hr:03/11:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 9-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 57.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 58.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 58.3 F Raob est. max temp: 52.4 F Surface elev Temp: 41.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 43.2 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 427 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 41.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 42.7 F Lifted Index @700mb: 3.1 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1436 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2708 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 4009 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 5266 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 19 kt Convection overcast height: 6826 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7878 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 4.6 62 | -0.0 11500 3.8 336 35 61 | 1.9 11000 3.7 61 | 4.4 10500 3.5 61 | 6.9 o 10000 3.4 340 31 60 | 9.4 * o 9500 2.6 60 | 11.4 * o 9000 1.8 344 27 59 | 13.2 * o 8500 1.2 58 | 15.2 *o 8000 0.6 333 27 58 | 17.3 o 7500 -1.8 328 24 55 | 17.6 . o* 7000 -3.9 325 21 53 | 18.2 . o * 6500 -4.5 53 | 20.3 . o * 6000 -5.1 52 | 22.4 . o * 5500 -5.6 345 21 51 | 24.5 . o * 5000 -5.8 358 23 51 | 27.0 . o * 4500 -6.1 51 | 29.4 . o * 4000 -6.7 50 | 31.4 . o * 3500 -7.4 50 | 33.4 . o * 3000 -8.1 004 19 49 | 35.4 . o * 2500 -9.4 355 16 48 | 36.8 . o * 2000 -10.6 46 | 38.2 . o * 1500 -11.9 45 | 39.6 . o * 1000 -13.1 44 | 41.0 . o * 500 -14.4 330 13 43 ! 42.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 7878 86 3098 4780 5463 0 73 1383 6495 6648 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 10-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 57.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 57.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 57.8 F Surface elev Temp: 44.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 45.0 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 44.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 45.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14716 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2653 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 19.8 77 | 14.7 . o 11500 19.1 76 | 16.6 . o 11000 18.3 75 | 18.5 . o 10500 17.6 349 17 75 | 20.5 . o 10000 17.0 74 | 22.6 * . o 9500 16.5 002 18 74 | 24.8 * . o 9000 16.1 013 19 73 | 26.9 .* o 8500 15.7 017 19 73 | 29.3 . * o 8000 15.7 023 20 73 | 31.9 . * o 7500 15.5 024 20 73 | 34.4 . * o 7000 15.6 026 20 73 | 37.2 . * o 6500 15.5 028 19 73 | 39.8 . * o 6000 15.6 031 18 73 | 42.5 . * o 5500 15.0 032 15 72 | 44.6 . * o 5000 12.4 69 | 44.6 . * o 4500 9.7 67 | 44.7 . * o 4000 7.1 64 | 44.7 . * o 3500 4.5 61 | 44.7 . * o 3000 1.8 59 | 44.8 . * o 2500 -0.8 56 | 44.8 . o 2000 -3.4 54 | 44.9 . o * 1500 -6.1 51 | 44.9 . o * 1000 -8.7 48 | 44.9 . o * 500 -11.4 46 ! 45.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 2653 -1 -9197 11850 13192 0 -1 -9197 11850 13192 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html