DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 2619,3089 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 1844 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1274 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 3 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 331 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +751 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 32% PM= 94% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5991 ft LCL= 9083 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2236 ft LCL= 9614 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2227,4312 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2724 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +623 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 1931,4166 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2531 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KSNS 031120Z 0312/0412 12005KT P6SM SKC FM031500 12011KT P6SM SKC FM032200 31007KT P6SM SKC FM040400 12005KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2619, 3089 Hcrit= 1844 HgtVar=1274 B/S= 3 W*= 331 WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 2367, 2836 Hcrit= 1527 HgtVar= 610 B/S= 3 W*= 293 AVG Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2510, 2945 Hcrit= 1676 HgtVar= 943 B/S= 3 W*= 311 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 9109,10111 Hcrit= 8294 HgtVar=2389 B/S=11 W*=1020 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +801 (+2.1F) MAPS9h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2882, 3788 Hcrit= 2467 HgtVar= 774 B/S=10 W*= 387 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +702 (+4.5F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 2227, 4312 Hcrit= 2724 HgtVar=1588 B/S= 7 W*= 369 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +623 (+2.8F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 1931, 4166 Hcrit= 2531 HgtVar=3000 B/S= 9 W*= 346 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 3-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 67.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 67.9 F Raob est. max temp: 73.1 F Surface elev Temp: 55.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 56.2 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 400 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 55.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 56.6 F Lifted Index @700mb: 16.4 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2939 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 8729 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 17436 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 10122 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 21 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3092 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 25.4 030 9 92 | 30.3 o 11500 24.7 017 11 92 | 32.2 o 11000 24.1 91 | 34.3 o 10500 23.5 91 | 36.5 o 10000 23.0 340 11 90 | 38.6 * o 9500 22.5 340 14 90 | 40.8 * o 9000 21.4 88 | 42.3 * o 8500 19.7 87 | 43.3 * o 8000 18.0 355 18 85 | 44.3 * o 7500 12.7 352 21 80 | 41.7 * o 7000 10.7 347 25 78 | 42.3 . * o 6500 9.7 77 | 44.0 . * o 6000 8.8 334 22 76 | 45.7 . * o 5500 7.5 339 21 75 | 47.1 * o 5000 5.4 344 20 72 | 47.7 * o 4500 4.3 71 | 49.3 * o 4000 3.2 002 18 70 | 50.8 * o 3500 2.3 009 20 69 | 52.6 * o 3000 -0.5 021 24 66 | 52.5 o* 2500 -5.1 025 27 62 | 50.6 o * 2000 -8.5 029 29 59 | 49.8 . o * 1500 -9.6 57 | 51.4 . o * 1000 -10.0 57 | 53.7 . o * 500 -10.3 355 10 57 ! 56.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 3092 32 -5991 9083 17809 0 22 -7771 10863 17809 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 68.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 68.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.2 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14754 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 24 kt Convection overcast height: 9218 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11850 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 0.3 67 | 5.6 11500 -0.7 66 | 7.2 11000 -1.8 043 29 65 | 8.8 10500 -2.9 64 | 10.4 * 10000 -4.0 041 32 63 | 11.9 o * 9500 -5.0 039 34 62 | 13.6 o * 9000 -6.7 028 39 60 | 14.6 o * 8500 -7.2 023 38 60 | 16.8 o. * 8000 -7.8 014 37 59 | 18.8 o * 7500 -8.5 010 36 58 | 20.8 o * 7000 -9.5 001 33 58 | 22.5 o * 6500 -10.3 358 31 57 | 24.4 o. * 6000 -11.1 350 25 56 | 26.2 o * 5500 -12.1 347 20 55 | 27.8 o * 5000 -14.8 52 | 27.9 o * 4500 -17.4 50 | 27.9 o * 4000 -20.1 47 | 27.9 o * 3500 -22.7 44 | 28.0 o * 3000 -25.3 42 | 28.0 o * 2500 -28.0 39 | 28.0 o * 2000 -30.6 36 | 28.1 o * 1500 -33.2 34 | 28.1 .o * 1000 -35.9 31 | 28.1 .o * 500 -38.5 28 ! 28.2 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@11850 100 3806 8044 8019 0 94 2236 9614 9685 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html