DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on FRI Feb 5 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 1000,4428 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2397 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 3688 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 302 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -531 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 98% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2923 ft LCL= 1507 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6588 ft LCL= 10741 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2055,4611 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2791 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +291 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4400,6750 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4907 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 02/05:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 1000, 4428 Hcrit= 2397 HgtVar=3688 B/S=11 W*= 302 WxC Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 2928, 5875 Hcrit= 3890 HgtVar=2575 B/S= 7 W*= 410 AVG Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 2000, 4875 Hcrit= 2963 HgtVar=3408 B/S= 7 W*= 349 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 4828, 5439 Hcrit= 4175 HgtVar= 421 B/S=23 W*= 651 MAPSanl:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: -1062 (-9.3F) MAPS9h:02/06:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 1181, 3555 Hcrit= 1595 HgtVar=2500 B/S= 6 W*= 261 ETAanal:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: +0 (+0.0F) ETA12hr:02/06:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2055, 4611 Hcrit= 2791 HgtVar=2116 B/S= 3 W*= 346 ETA24hr:02/06:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: +291 (+1.2F) ETA36hr:02/07:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 4400, 6750 Hcrit= 4907 HgtVar=2437 B/S= 6 W*= 530 ETA48hr:02/07:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 5-FEB-2010 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 61.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 61.4 F Raob est. max temp: 60.9 F Surface elev Temp: 52.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 54.8 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 289 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 52.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 54.6 F Lifted Index @700mb: 1.5 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 548 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 1706 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 1904 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 2329 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: 3147 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4430 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 17.1 76 | 15.6 o 11500 15.9 75 | 17.0 o 11000 14.7 74 | 18.5 o 10500 13.8 224 29 73 | 20.2 o 10000 13.6 73 | 22.7 * o 9500 13.1 220 29 72 | 24.9 * o 9000 11.3 220 29 70 | 25.7 * o 8500 6.3 227 27 65 | 23.5 * o 8000 3.3 233 26 62 | 23.1 * o 7500 2.4 235 22 61 | 24.9 . * o 7000 2.8 234 14 62 | 27.9 . * o 6500 2.4 61 | 30.3 . * o 6000 2.1 61 | 32.6 .* o 5500 1.7 61 | 34.9 .* o 5000 1.3 217 17 60 | 37.1 .*o 4500 0.1 220 17 59 | 38.6 .o 4000 -0.6 58 | 40.6 .o 3500 -1.2 58 | 42.6 .o* 3000 -1.9 57 | 44.6 o * 2500 -2.5 200 4 56 | 46.7 o * 2000 -3.0 56 | 48.8 .o * 1500 -3.5 55 | 51.0 .o * 1000 -4.0 150 9 55 | 53.2 . o * 500 -5.6 135 7 53 ! 54.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 4430 98 2923 1507 1772 0 90 1975 2455 2486 163 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 6-Feb-2010 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 59.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 59.7 F Surface elev Temp: 37.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 38.6 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 37.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 38.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15389 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4153 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 16.4 75 | 13.2 o 11500 16.1 75 | 15.6 o 11000 15.8 75 | 18.0 o 10500 15.6 75 | 20.4 o 10000 15.3 286 18 74 | 22.8 * o 9500 15.1 74 | 25.2 * o 9000 14.8 278 15 74 | 27.7 * o 8500 14.1 272 12 73 | 29.6 . * o 8000 13.1 257 8 72 | 31.3 . * o 7500 11.6 210 4 71 | 32.5 . * o 7000 9.7 144 7 69 | 33.3 . * o 6500 8.5 123 11 68 | 34.7 . * o 6000 8.2 113 14 67 | 37.1 . * o 5500 7.2 110 12 66 | 38.8 . * o 5000 4.6 64 | 38.8 . * o 4500 1.9 61 | 38.8 . * o 4000 -0.8 58 | 38.7 . o 3500 -3.5 55 | 38.7 . o * 3000 -6.2 53 | 38.7 . o * 2500 -8.9 50 | 38.7 . o * 2000 -11.6 47 | 38.7 . o * 1500 -14.3 45 | 38.7 . o * 1000 -16.9 42 | 38.7 . o * 500 -19.6 39 ! 38.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 4153 -1 -6588 10741 12835 0 -1 -6588 10741 12835 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html