DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HOLLISTER on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5875,7285 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5461 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1307 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 8 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 596 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2750 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2276 ft LCL= 9531 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -12316 ft LCL= 15340 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 1892,3277 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1932 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -231 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1653,1975 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 940 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSNS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at OAK @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 230 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 5875, 7285 Hcrit= 5461 HgtVar=1307 B/S= 8 W*= 596 WxC Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 4800, 6083 Hcrit= 4350 HgtVar=1845 B/S= 6 W*= 500 AVG Tmax=93.5> TI=-4,0@ 5543, 6395 Hcrit= 4676 HgtVar=1905 B/S= 6 W*= 539 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 6222, 7452 Hcrit= 5915 HgtVar= 881 B/S=20 W*= 794 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -4369 (-19.8F) MAPS9h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at OAK for Sfc= 230 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 5291, 7000 Hcrit= 5210 HgtVar=1529 B/S=10 W*= 578 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -1131 (-3.7F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 1892, 3277 Hcrit= 1932 HgtVar=3473 B/S=29 W*= 327 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -231 (-0.7F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@ 1653, 1975 Hcrit= 940 HgtVar= 685 B/S=16 W*= 260 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 1-SEP-2010 12 UTC TI report from OAK OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 95.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 97.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 98.0 F Raob est. max temp: 89.7 F Surface elev Temp: 61.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 63.7 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 10 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 322 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 63.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 65.8 F Lifted Index @700mb: 11.4 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1682 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 7359 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 16823 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 10500 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7255 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 13.0 108 | 47.5 o 11500 12.3 107 | 49.5 o 11000 11.6 015 12 107 | 51.4 o 10500 10.3 025 13 105 | 52.8 o 10000 8.4 103 | 53.6 * o 9500 6.9 019 14 102 | 54.8 * o 9000 6.2 004 16 101 | 56.8 * o 8500 3.5 99 | 56.7 * o 8000 1.0 341 11 96 | 56.9 *o 7500 0.3 95 | 58.9 o 7000 -0.4 330 13 95 | 60.9 o 6500 -1.0 344 13 94 | 62.9 o* 6000 -3.4 92 | 63.2 o * 5500 -5.8 021 12 89 | 63.5 o * 5000 -6.8 030 15 88 | 65.1 o * 4500 -7.3 88 | 67.2 o * 4000 -7.9 87 | 69.4 o * 3500 -8.4 87 | 71.5 o * 3000 -9.0 86 | 73.6 o * 2500 -9.6 030 21 85 | 75.7 o * 2000 -10.4 037 20 85 | 77.6 o * 1500 -13.4 053 15 82 | 77.2 . o * 1000 -18.8 067 9 76 | 74.5 . o * 500 -27.8 085 3 67 ! 68.2 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 7255 73 -2276 9531 18010 0 32 -4575 11830 18010 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from OAK MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 95.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 96.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 96.9 F Surface elev Temp: 80.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 82.3 F Surface elevation: 230 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 230 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 80.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 82.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18447 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3024 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 12000 13.6 261 19 109 | 47.7 o 11500 13.6 260 19 109 | 50.3 o 11000 13.5 257 18 109 | 52.9 o 10500 13.6 254 16 109 | 55.6 o 10000 13.6 250 16 109 | 58.3 * o 9500 13.6 246 15 109 | 61.0 * o 9000 13.7 241 13 109 | 63.7 * o 8500 13.5 236 13 109 | 66.3 * o 8000 13.7 231 12 109 | 69.1 * o 7500 13.6 225 11 109 | 71.7 * o 7000 13.6 220 10 109 | 74.4 * o 6500 13.6 214 9 109 | 77.0 * o 6000 13.6 206 8 109 | 79.7 * o 5500 13.0 196 7 108 | 81.7 * o 5000 10.3 105 | 81.8 * o 4500 7.7 103 | 81.8 * o 4000 5.1 100 | 81.9 * o 3500 2.5 97 | 81.9 * o 3000 -0.1 95 | 82.0 o 2500 -2.7 92 | 82.0 o * 2000 -5.4 90 | 82.1 o * 1500 -8.0 87 | 82.2 o * 1000 -10.6 84 | 82.2 o * 500 -13.2 82 ! 82.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 230 TI=0@ 3024 -1 -12316 15340 15945 0 -1 -12316 15340 15945 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95023 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95023 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html