DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on THU Jul 29 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8500,9695 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7741 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 846 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 6 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 643 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -395 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 90% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2236 ft LCL= 7463 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 9375,10380 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8397 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -88 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 9518,10388 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8485 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KELM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 07/29:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 8500, 9695 Hcrit= 7741 HgtVar= 846 B/S= 6 W*= 643 WxC Tmax= 80 > TI=-4,0@ 7666, 9194 Hcrit= 7235 HgtVar= 931 B/S= 6 W*= 586 AVG Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 8076, 9472 Hcrit= 7511 HgtVar= 861 B/S= 6 W*= 615 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 4080, 4733 Hcrit= 3380 HgtVar= 654 B/S=12 W*= 323 MAPSanl:07/29:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 84.4 > 82.0 pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: -2501 (-19.6F) MAPS10h:07/30:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 6500, 8192 Hcrit= 6288 HgtVar=1308 B/S= 6 W*= 505 ETAanal:07/29:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: +1711 (+6.2F) ETA12hr:07/30:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@ 9375,10380 Hcrit= 8397 HgtVar= 995 B/S= 9 W*= 710 ETA24hr:07/30:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 79 > Change@TI=+4: -88 (-0.4F) ETA36hr:07/31:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 9518,10388 Hcrit= 8485 HgtVar=1278 B/S=17 W*= 757 ETA48hr:07/31:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 29-JUL-2010 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 85.5 F Raob est. max temp: 78.5 F Surface elev Temp: 61.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 64.5 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2018 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 60.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 63.4 F Lifted Index @700mb: 3.9 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2500 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 3609 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 6296 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 6938 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 20 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9699 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.7 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 15.0 97 | 29.2 * o 14500 14.6 97 | 31.3 * o 14000 14.1 96 | 33.5 * o 13500 13.6 96 | 35.7 * o 13000 12.9 290 45 95 | 37.7 * o 12500 11.6 94 | 39.0 * o 12000 10.3 92 | 40.4 * o 11500 8.6 291 45 91 | 41.4 * o 11000 6.2 88 | 41.7 * o 10500 3.8 86 | 42.0 * o 10000 1.4 295 40 83 | 42.2 *o 9500 -0.9 81 | 42.6 o* 9000 -2.7 299 31 79 | 43.4 . o* 8500 -4.0 78 | 44.9 . o * 8000 -5.2 77 | 46.4 . o * 7500 -6.4 76 | 47.8 . o * 7000 -7.6 306 26 74 | 49.3 . o * 6500 -8.4 74 | 51.1 . o * 6000 -9.0 73 | 53.2 . o * 5500 -9.8 308 22 72 | 55.0 . o * 5000 -11.3 305 16 71 | 56.2 . o * 4500 -13.1 69 | 57.1 . o * 4000 -14.4 324 9 68 | 58.6 . o * 3500 -14.8 67 | 60.7 . o * 3000 -15.6 002 13 66 | 62.7 . o * 2500 -17.8 020 11 64 | 63.1 . o * 2000 -20.1 001 11 62 | 63.5 . o * 1500 -21.1 61 | 65.2 . o * 1000 -22.1 60 ! 66.9 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 9699 90 2236 7463 14011 0 47 -243 9942 14011 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 30-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 87.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 87.3 F Surface elev Temp: 84.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 87.3 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1710 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 84.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 87.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13625 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 23.4 105 | 39.6 * .o 14500 23.0 105 | 41.9 * . o 14000 22.6 105 | 44.2 * . o 13500 22.2 104 | 46.5 * . o 13000 21.9 104 | 48.8 * . o 12500 21.5 024 5 104 | 51.1 * . o 12000 21.3 012 7 103 | 53.6 * . o 11500 21.3 009 8 103 | 56.2 * . o 11000 21.2 003 10 103 | 58.8 * . o 10500 21.1 000 11 103 | 61.3 * . o 10000 21.0 354 13 103 | 63.9 * . o 9500 20.8 350 15 103 | 66.4 *. o 9000 20.8 346 16 103 | 69.1 * o 8500 20.6 341 18 103 | 71.6 . * o 8000 20.5 336 20 102 | 74.1 . * o 7500 20.4 332 21 102 | 76.7 . * o 7000 20.3 329 22 102 | 79.3 . * o 6500 20.4 327 22 102 | 82.0 . * o 6000 20.5 325 21 102 | 84.8 . * o 5500 19.7 323 19 102 | 86.7 . * o 5000 17.1 99 | 86.8 . * o 4500 14.5 97 | 86.9 . * o 4000 11.9 94 | 86.9 . * o 3500 9.3 91 | 87.0 . * o 3000 6.7 89 | 87.1 . * o 2500 4.1 86 | 87.1 . * o 2000 1.5 84 ! 87.2 . * ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html