DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on FRI Jul 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7900,9055 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7095 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1409 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 5 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 571 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1069 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 99% PM= 83% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 4386 ft LCL= 4646 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1245 ft LCL= 6794 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 3 PM= 38 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 7176,8375 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6677 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +133 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 9527,10547 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8524 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KELM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 07/03:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 7900, 9055 Hcrit= 7095 HgtVar=1409 B/S= 5 W*= 571 WxC Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 5250, 7863 Hcrit= 5869 HgtVar=1137 B/S= 4 W*= 449 AVG Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 5875, 8310 Hcrit= 6381 HgtVar=1505 B/S= 5 W*= 508 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 6766, 9294 Hcrit= 7246 HgtVar=2331 B/S= 8 W*= 562 MAPSanl:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -1307 (-3.2F) MAPS10h:07/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 6944, 9166 Hcrit= 7107 HgtVar=2034 B/S= 8 W*= 546 ETAanal:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -832 (-2.2F) ETA12hr:07/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 7176, 8375 Hcrit= 6677 HgtVar=1375 B/S= 4 W*= 608 ETA24hr:07/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: +133 (+0.5F) ETA36hr:07/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@ 9527,10547 Hcrit= 8524 HgtVar= 953 B/S= 7 W*= 709 ETA48hr:07/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 3-JUL-2009 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 74.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 77.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 77.1 F Raob est. max temp: 72.1 F Surface elev Temp: 56.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 59.3 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2254 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 56.9 F Lifted Index @700mb: 1.2 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1242 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2426 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 2373 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 5479 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 15 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 19 kt Convection overcast height: 7588 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9032 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.7 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 10.7 85 | 16.7 * . o 14500 10.3 84 | 18.9 * . o 14000 9.8 314 14 84 | 21.1 * . o 13500 8.9 83 | 22.8 * . o 13000 7.8 308 13 82 | 24.4 *. o 12500 6.8 305 13 81 | 26.1 * . o 12000 6.0 301 15 80 | 27.9 *. o 11500 5.5 79 | 30.1 * o 11000 4.9 79 | 32.3 * o 10500 4.1 297 14 78 | 34.1 .* o 10000 2.7 295 14 77 | 35.4 * o 9500 0.8 295 18 75 | 36.2 .o 9000 -0.1 74 | 38.0 .o 8500 -0.9 73 | 39.8 o* 8000 -3.8 287 23 70 | 39.6 o * 7500 -4.8 69 | 41.3 .o * 7000 -5.2 69 | 43.5 . o * 6500 -5.5 68 | 45.8 . o * 6000 -5.9 68 | 48.1 . o * 5500 -6.7 285 20 67 | 50.0 . o * 5000 -9.3 278 19 65 | 50.1 o * 4500 -10.5 63 | 51.5 o * 4000 -12.0 62 | 52.8 o * 3500 -13.4 61 | 54.0 .o * 3000 -14.8 59 | 55.3 o * 2500 -16.2 280 16 58 | 56.5 o * 2000 -17.4 57 | 58.0 o * 1500 -17.9 56 | 60.2 o * 1000 -18.3 268 9 56 ! 62.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 9032 99 4386 4646 6017 3 95 2005 7027 7209 455 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 74.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 77.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 77.4 F Surface elev Temp: 60.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 63.9 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1400 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1807 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 60.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 63.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 5638 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 15 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 23 kt Convection overcast height: 6990 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8039 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 15.4 317 15 89 | 21.5 * o 14500 14.5 88 | 23.3 .* o 14000 13.8 88 | 25.3 .* o 13500 13.1 87 | 27.3 . * o 13000 12.4 86 | 29.3 . * o 12500 11.7 314 19 86 | 31.2 . * o 12000 10.6 85 | 32.8 . * o 11500 9.5 317 19 83 | 34.4 . * o 11000 7.9 82 | 35.4 . * o 10500 6.1 317 19 80 | 36.4 . * o 10000 4.9 318 18 79 | 37.8 . * o 9500 3.4 321 19 77 | 38.9 . * o 9000 2.3 325 20 76 | 40.5 . *o 8500 0.9 326 22 75 | 41.8 . *o 8000 -0.1 327 24 74 | 43.5 . o 7500 -1.1 326 25 73 | 45.2 . o* 7000 -2.1 324 25 72 | 46.8 . o * 6500 -3.3 323 25 71 | 48.3 . o * 6000 -4.6 322 25 69 | 49.7 . o * 5500 -6.0 320 25 68 | 51.0 .o * 5000 -7.6 318 25 66 | 52.0 . o * 4500 -9.7 316 25 64 | 52.6 .o * 4000 -12.2 311 26 62 | 52.7 o * 3500 -12.4 298 25 62 | 55.2 o * 3000 -12.7 294 22 61 | 57.6 o * 2500 -13.0 291 20 61 | 60.0 .o * 2000 -13.2 289 17 61 ! 62.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 8039 100 3024 5015 6015 0 83 1245 6794 6858 38 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html