DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 94% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1674 ft LCL= 4694 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1130 ft LCL= 5773 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4730,6156 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4662 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KELM 031540Z 0316/0412 31010KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040 FM040000 VRB03KT P6SM OVC025 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NO RAOB+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 6123, 6370 Hcrit= 5063 HgtVar=1152 B/S= 5 W*= 535 NO RAOB+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 4129, 4884 Hcrit= 3672 HgtVar= 907 B/S= 6 W*= 376 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 43 > Change@TI=+4: -271 (-1.7F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 5500, 6525 Hcrit= 5156 HgtVar=1000 B/S= 5 W*= 526 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 43 > Change@TI=+4: -257 (-1.3F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 39 > TI=-4,0@ 4916, 6000 Hcrit= 4518 HgtVar=1147 B/S= 5 W*= 418 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm WxC Tmax= 39 > Change@TI=+4: +103 (+0.5F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam WxC Tmax= 39 > TI=-4,0@ 4730, 6156 Hcrit= 4662 HgtVar=1196 B/S=15 W*= 431 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+WxCtmax *************** 3-FEB-2012 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 43.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 43.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 43.7 F Raob est. max temp: 39.3 F Surface elev Temp: 27.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.8 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2864 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 21.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 21.7 F Lifted Index @700mb: 11.0 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 2134 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 3051 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 3099 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 6093 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 21 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6368 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 20.2 63 | -7.1 * . o 14500 19.1 310 54 62 | -5.5 * . o 14000 17.9 61 | -4.0 * o 13500 16.6 60 | -2.7 . * o 13000 15.3 58 | -1.3 . * o 12500 14.3 310 51 57 | 0.4 . * o 12000 14.0 57 | 2.7 . * o 11500 13.6 312 50 57 | 5.0 . * o 11000 12.9 56 | 7.0 . * o 10500 12.2 314 51 55 | 9.0 . * o 10000 11.6 315 49 55 | 11.0 . * o 9500 10.8 311 44 54 | 12.9 . * o 9000 10.0 309 41 53 | 14.7 . * o 8500 8.9 307 40 52 | 16.4 . * o 8000 6.1 305 38 49 | 16.2 . * o 7500 3.9 308 35 47 | 16.7 . * o 7000 3.0 46 | 18.5 . *o 6500 2.1 310 29 45 | 20.3 . * o 6000 -6.0 310 28 37 | 14.8 .o * 5500 -9.2 315 27 34 | 14.2 . o * 5000 -9.4 325 26 34 | 16.7 . o * 4500 -9.6 33 | 19.3 . o * 4000 -9.7 33 | 21.8 . o * 3500 -11.6 319 22 31 | 22.6 . o * 3000 -15.7 307 15 27 | 21.1 .o * 2500 -15.9 27 | 23.6 . o * 2000 -15.9 27 | 26.2 . o * 1500 -16.0 286 10 27 ! 28.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 6368 94 1674 4694 10033 0 77 -851 7219 10033 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 43.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 44.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 44.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1710 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9269 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4643 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 22.2 65 | -4.7 * . o 14500 21.4 031 29 64 | -2.8 * . o 14000 20.6 64 | -0.9 * . o 13500 19.8 63 | 1.0 * .o 13000 19.1 035 29 62 | 2.9 * .o 12500 18.1 61 | 4.6 * .o 12000 17.0 60 | 6.1 * .o 11500 15.9 59 | 7.7 * o 11000 14.8 58 | 9.2 * o 10500 13.6 041 28 57 | 10.8 * o 10000 12.4 039 30 55 | 12.2 * o 9500 11.1 038 32 54 | 13.6 * o 9000 9.3 027 39 52 | 14.4 * o 8500 8.3 023 38 51 | 16.2 * o 8000 7.8 016 37 51 | 18.3 * o 7500 7.3 012 35 50 | 20.5 * o 7000 6.9 006 32 50 | 22.7 * o 6500 6.2 002 30 49 | 24.7 * o 6000 5.4 355 24 48 | 26.6 * o 5500 4.5 352 19 48 | 28.4 * .o 5000 1.9 45 | 28.4 *.o 4500 -0.8 42 | 28.5 .o 4000 -3.4 40 | 28.5 .o * 3500 -6.1 37 | 28.5 .o * 3000 -8.7 34 | 28.5 .o * 2500 -11.3 32 | 28.5 .o * 2000 -14.0 29 ! 28.6 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@ 4643 -1 -1130 5773 5814 0 -1 -1130 5773 5814 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html