DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Elmira, NY on SAT May 17 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7500,11500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 8994 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 772 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 4 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 604 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -992 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 70% PM= 63% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2607 ft LCL= 8874 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1297 ft LCL= 8729 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 6291,8045 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6074 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: +2117 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 10500,12208 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9999 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KELM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at BUF @ 05/17:12Z for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 7500,11500 Hcrit= 8994 HgtVar= 772 B/S= 4 W*= 604 WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 6642, 9583 Hcrit= 7205 HgtVar=2274 B/S= 3 W*= 488 AVG Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 7166,10833 Hcrit= 8339 HgtVar=1212 B/S= 4 W*= 553 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@10000,12136 Hcrit= 9682 HgtVar=2086 B/S= 5 W*= 680 MAPSanl:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -1666 (-4.0F) MAPS11h:05/18:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at ELM for Sfc= 1710 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 9055,11437 Hcrit= 9105 HgtVar=1881 B/S= 6 W*= 662 ETAanal:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -319 (-0.8F) ETA12hr:05/18:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 6291, 8045 Hcrit= 6074 HgtVar=2017 B/S= 7 W*= 471 ETA24hr:05/18:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: +2117 (+6.2F) ETA36hr:05/19:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@10500,12208 Hcrit= 9999 HgtVar=1837 B/S= 5 W*= 808 ETA48hr:05/19:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 17-MAY-2008 12 UTC TI report from BUF OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 68.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 68.5 F Raob est. max temp: 65.5 F Surface elev Temp: 51.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 53.3 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 705 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1768 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 51.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 53.3 F Lifted Index @700mb: 2.7 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 3608 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 6543 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 8654 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 8753 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 33 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 28 kt Convection overcast height: 10773 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11481 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 8.7 76 | 6.0 * o 14500 7.9 75 | 7.8 *. o 14000 7.1 290 34 74 | 9.7 * o 13500 6.4 73 | 11.7 .* o 13000 5.7 73 | 13.6 . * o 12500 5.0 283 32 72 | 15.6 . * o 12000 2.8 274 28 70 | 16.1 * o 11500 0.0 267 27 67 | 16.0 . o 11000 -0.9 66 | 17.7 . o* 10500 -1.2 66 | 20.1 . o* 10000 -1.5 264 28 65 | 22.4 . o* 9500 -2.1 265 28 65 | 24.6 . o* 9000 -2.8 64 | 26.5 . o * 8500 -3.2 64 | 28.8 . o * 8000 -3.6 63 | 31.1 . o * 7500 -4.0 265 24 63 | 33.4 . o * 7000 -5.5 265 25 61 | 34.5 . o * 6500 -6.2 61 | 36.5 . o * 6000 -6.7 256 28 60 | 38.6 . o * 5500 -7.1 60 | 40.9 . o * 5000 -7.3 60 | 43.4 . o * 4500 -7.5 245 30 60 | 45.9 . o * 4000 -7.9 59 | 48.1 . o * 3500 -8.2 59 | 50.4 . o * 3000 -8.6 58 | 52.8 . o * 2500 -9.0 246 36 58 | 55.1 . o * 2000 -12.3 245 36 55 | 54.4 . o * 1500 -15.8 51 ! 53.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@11481 70 2607 8874 10298 0 70 1233 10248 10461 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 18-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from ELM MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 69.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 69.4 F Surface elev Temp: 53.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 56.2 F Surface elevation: 1710 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1437 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1827 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 6374 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 14 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 23 kt Convection overcast height: 9255 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10026 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 7.4 74 | 5.6 * o 14500 6.6 256 59 74 | 7.4 * o 14000 5.9 73 | 9.4 .* o 13500 5.3 72 | 11.4 . * o 13000 4.6 72 | 13.5 . * o 12500 4.0 255 43 71 | 15.5 . * o 12000 3.2 70 | 17.4 . * o 11500 2.4 69 | 19.3 . * o 11000 1.6 69 | 21.1 . *o 10500 0.8 261 30 68 | 23.0 . o 10000 -0.0 67 | 24.8 . o 9500 -0.9 266 28 66 | 26.7 . o 9000 -1.8 65 | 28.5 . o* 8500 -2.7 278 27 64 | 30.2 . o* 8000 -3.8 63 | 31.8 . o * 7500 -4.9 288 27 62 | 33.4 . o * 7000 -5.8 290 26 61 | 35.1 . o * 6500 -6.7 289 23 60 | 36.9 . o * 6000 -7.6 289 24 59 | 38.7 . o * 5500 -8.6 288 25 58 | 40.3 . o * 5000 -10.1 287 26 57 | 41.5 . o * 4500 -12.4 282 23 55 | 41.9 o * 4000 -12.5 281 22 54 | 44.4 o * 3500 -12.5 280 21 54 | 47.1 .o * 3000 -12.5 280 20 54 | 49.8 . o * 2500 -12.5 281 19 55 | 52.5 . o * 2000 -12.7 280 17 54 ! 54.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1710 TI=0@10026 100 3032 6994 8651 0 63 1297 8729 8858 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=14845 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/14845 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html