DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on SAT May 17 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3280,4919 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3400 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2411 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 342 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -194 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 67% PM= 15% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5527 ft LCL= 10838 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -11720 ft LCL= 14330 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 3321,4653 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3184 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -158 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 3020,4066 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2653 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 05/17:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3333, 5300 Hcrit= 3799 HgtVar=2485 B/S= 8 W*= 380 MAPS WxC Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 5325, 7785 Hcrit= 5952 HgtVar=1048 B/S=12 W*= 527 MAPS AVG Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 4777, 6916 Hcrit= 5151 HgtVar=1323 B/S=10 W*= 463 ETA NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3227, 4538 Hcrit= 3002 HgtVar=2337 B/S= 7 W*= 305 ETA WxC Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 4571, 6875 Hcrit= 5062 HgtVar=2125 B/S=11 W*= 445 ETA AVG Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 3807, 5444 Hcrit= 3825 HgtVar=2556 B/S= 8 W*= 365 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3333, 5300 Hcrit= 3799 HgtVar=2485 B/S= 8 W*= 380 MAPSanl:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -388 (-1.4F) MAPS11h:05/18:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3227, 4538 Hcrit= 3002 HgtVar=2337 B/S= 7 W*= 305 ETAanal:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -0 (-0.0F) ETA12hr:05/18:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3321, 4653 Hcrit= 3184 HgtVar=2847 B/S= 7 W*= 327 ETA24hr:05/18:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -158 (-0.5F) ETA36hr:05/19:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 3020, 4066 Hcrit= 2653 HgtVar=1656 B/S= 4 W*= 287 ETA48hr:05/19:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 17-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.5 F Surface elev Temp: 59.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 61.6 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1870 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 59.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 61.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11815 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 1 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5311 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 21.5 113 | 15.1 19500 20.7 174 4 112 | 17.0 19000 20.0 111 | 18.9 18500 19.2 164 5 110 | 20.8 o 18000 18.7 110 | 22.9 o 17500 18.1 109 | 25.1 o 17000 17.6 109 | 27.2 o 16500 17.0 108 | 29.3 o 16000 16.4 179 7 107 | 31.4 o 15500 15.9 107 | 33.5 o 15000 15.4 106 | 35.7 * o 14500 14.9 172 8 106 | 37.9 * o 14000 13.9 150 10 105 | 39.6 * o 13500 12.6 148 13 104 | 40.9 * o 13000 11.4 102 | 42.4 * o 12500 10.3 153 14 101 | 44.0 * o 12000 9.4 155 18 100 | 45.7 * o 11500 8.7 153 22 100 | 47.7 * o 11000 8.6 147 27 100 | 50.3 * o 10500 8.8 151 23 100 | 53.2 * o 10000 8.7 158 17 100 | 55.7 * o 9500 8.6 157 17 100 | 58.3 * o 9000 8.4 148 15 99 | 60.7 * o 8500 7.3 149 13 98 | 62.3 * o 8000 4.9 166 9 96 | 62.7 * o 7500 2.8 200 6 94 | 63.2 * o 7000 2.1 208 6 93 | 65.2 *o 6500 1.5 236 6 92 | 67.2 . *o 6000 1.3 251 6 92 | 69.7 . *o 5500 0.8 286 6 92 | 71.8 . *o 5000 -1.2 310 8 90 | 72.5 . o* 4500 -3.0 320 11 88 | 73.4 . o * 4000 -3.6 317 14 87 | 75.4 . o * 3500 -3.9 310 13 87 | 77.8 . o * 3000 -5.3 297 12 86 | 79.1 . o * 2500 -9.1 294 11 82 | 78.0 . o * 2000 -18.1 292 6 73 | 71.7 . o * 1500 -28.7 025 1 62 ! 63.7 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 5311 67 -5527 10838 16341 0 31 -6748 12059 16341 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 18-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.4 F Surface elev Temp: 89.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 90.7 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1870 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 89.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 90.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14860 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2610 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 24.2 115 | 16.8 19500 23.4 247 7 114 | 18.7 19000 22.7 114 | 20.6 o 18500 21.9 113 | 22.5 o 18000 21.1 112 | 24.4 o 17500 20.4 244 6 111 | 26.4 o 17000 19.8 111 | 28.4 o 16500 19.1 110 | 30.4 o 16000 18.5 109 | 32.4 o 15500 17.8 215 4 109 | 34.4 o 15000 17.2 108 | 36.6 * o 14500 16.7 171 4 108 | 38.7 * o 14000 16.0 154 4 107 | 40.6 * o 13500 15.3 166 5 106 | 42.7 * o 13000 14.3 181 7 105 | 44.3 * o 12500 13.2 104 | 45.9 * o 12000 12.3 182 8 103 | 47.7 * o 11500 11.6 178 8 103 | 49.7 * o 11000 11.0 174 7 102 | 51.7 * o 10500 10.2 178 4 101 | 53.6 * o 10000 9.8 203 3 101 | 55.8 * o 9500 9.0 229 2 100 | 57.7 * o 9000 8.1 324 2 99 | 59.5 * o 8500 7.1 349 5 98 | 61.1 * o 8000 6.2 347 9 97 | 62.9 * o 7500 5.4 342 12 96 | 64.8 * o 7000 4.7 335 15 96 | 66.8 * o 6500 4.2 329 17 95 | 68.9 * o 6000 3.7 326 19 95 | 71.1 . * o 5500 3.2 326 21 94 | 73.3 . * o 5000 3.0 326 22 94 | 75.7 . * o 4500 2.9 323 23 94 | 78.3 . *o 4000 2.4 320 22 93 | 80.4 . * o 3500 1.8 317 22 93 | 82.5 . *o 3000 0.4 309 20 91 | 83.8 . o 2500 -0.1 310 18 91 | 86.0 . o 2000 -0.1 297 14 91 | 88.7 . o 1500 -1.2 293 8 90 ! 90.2 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 2610 15 -11718 14328 19799 0 15 -11720 14330 19799 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html