DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7725,9315 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7525 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2280 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 741 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -2676 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1620 ft LCL= 11094 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -11205 ft LCL= 15340 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 3785,7250 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5230 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: +177 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 4000,5650 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4083 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 7758, 9464 Hcrit= 7771 HgtVar=3091 B/S=16 W*= 823 MAPS WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 9454,12555 Hcrit=10443 HgtVar=2382 B/S=16 W*= 979 MAPS AVG Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 8277,11600 Hcrit= 9606 HgtVar=2122 B/S=17 W*= 926 ETA NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 7692, 9166 Hcrit= 7280 HgtVar=1470 B/S= 7 W*= 659 ETA WxC Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 9178,10636 Hcrit= 8610 HgtVar=1864 B/S= 8 W*= 766 ETA AVG Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 8464, 9857 Hcrit= 7928 HgtVar=1693 B/S= 7 W*= 722 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 7758, 9464 Hcrit= 7771 HgtVar=3091 B/S=16 W*= 823 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -4461 (-9.4F) MAPS9h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 7692, 9166 Hcrit= 7280 HgtVar=1470 B/S= 7 W*= 659 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -892 (-3.0F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 3785, 7250 Hcrit= 5230 HgtVar=2250 B/S=15 W*= 424 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: +177 (+0.6F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 4000, 5650 Hcrit= 4083 HgtVar=1986 B/S=10 W*= 397 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 95.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 97.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 97.6 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16807 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9474 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 15.0 110 | 12.7 19500 14.5 110 | 15.0 19000 14.1 260 32 109 | 17.2 18500 13.5 260 32 108 | 19.3 18000 12.8 108 | 21.2 17500 12.1 107 | 23.2 17000 11.4 106 | 25.2 o 16500 10.7 248 25 106 | 27.2 o 16000 9.8 105 | 29.0 o 15500 9.0 104 | 30.8 o 15000 8.1 103 | 32.6 * o 14500 7.3 248 21 102 | 34.4 * o 14000 6.5 101 | 36.3 * o 13500 5.7 101 | 38.1 * o 13000 4.8 100 | 40.0 * o 12500 3.9 251 16 99 | 41.7 . * o 12000 2.8 98 | 43.3 . * o 11500 1.8 255 15 97 | 45.0 . *o 11000 1.7 253 15 97 | 47.5 . *o 10500 1.6 252 15 97 | 50.1 . *o 10000 1.3 247 16 96 | 52.5 . *o 9500 0.1 242 17 95 | 53.9 . o 9000 -1.3 234 18 94 | 55.2 . o* 8500 -1.6 225 17 93 | 57.6 . o* 8000 -2.5 210 14 93 | 59.4 . o* 7500 -5.6 194 13 89 | 58.9 . o * 7000 -7.8 179 12 87 | 59.5 . o * 6500 -8.8 178 14 86 | 61.1 . o * 6000 -10.6 175 15 84 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -18.3 182 9 77 | 57.0 . o * 5000 -21.1 74 | 56.8 . o * 4500 -24.0 71 | 56.6 . o * 4000 -26.9 68 | 56.4 . o * 3500 -29.7 65 | 56.2 . o * 3000 -32.6 62 | 56.0 . o * 2500 -35.4 60 | 55.9 . o * 2000 -38.3 57 | 55.7 . o * 1500 -41.1 149 4 54 ! 55.5 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 9474 73 -1620 11094 14284 0 65 -2854 12328 14284 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 95.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 96.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 96.9 F Surface elev Temp: 80.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 82.3 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 80.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 82.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18455 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4135 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.2 113 | 15.3 19500 17.0 112 | 16.8 19000 15.8 281 42 111 | 18.3 18500 14.7 279 42 110 | 19.8 18000 12.8 108 | 20.6 17500 10.0 290 39 105 | 20.5 17000 8.5 103 | 21.6 16500 8.4 103 | 24.2 o 16000 8.3 103 | 26.8 o 15500 8.3 103 | 29.4 o 15000 8.2 103 | 32.0 * o 14500 8.1 103 | 34.6 * o 14000 8.1 103 | 37.2 * o 13500 8.0 103 | 39.8 * o 13000 7.9 103 | 42.4 . * o 12500 7.8 103 | 45.1 . * o 12000 7.8 261 19 103 | 47.7 . * o 11500 7.8 260 19 103 | 50.3 . * o 11000 7.7 257 18 103 | 52.9 . * o 10500 7.8 254 16 103 | 55.6 . * o 10000 7.8 250 16 103 | 58.3 . * o 9500 7.8 246 15 103 | 61.0 . * o 9000 7.8 241 13 103 | 63.7 . * o 8500 7.7 236 13 103 | 66.3 . * o 8000 7.8 231 12 103 | 69.1 . * o 7500 7.8 225 11 103 | 71.7 . * o 7000 7.8 220 10 103 | 74.4 . * o 6500 7.7 214 9 103 | 77.0 . * o 6000 7.7 206 8 103 | 79.7 . * o 5500 7.1 196 7 102 | 81.7 . * o 5000 4.5 99 | 81.8 . * o 4500 1.9 97 | 81.9 . *o 4000 -0.7 94 | 81.9 . o 3500 -3.3 92 | 82.0 . o * 3000 -5.9 89 | 82.1 . o * 2500 -8.5 86 | 82.1 . o * 2000 -11.1 84 | 82.2 . o * 1500 -13.7 188 5 81 ! 82.3 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 4135 -1 -11205 15340 15945 0 -1 -11205 15340 15945 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html