DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on FRI Jul 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3530,4848 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3494 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 8102 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 368 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +181 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 36% PM= 17% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -13043 ft LCL= 16936 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -10531 ft LCL= 16036 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3027,6333 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4314 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -510 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 2936,3500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2288 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 07/03:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 3330, 3896 Hcrit= 2798 HgtVar=7004 B/S= 5 W*= 337 MAPS WxC Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 3724, 8500 Hcrit= 6493 HgtVar=7250 B/S=16 W*= 537 MAPS AVG Tmax=93.5> TI=-4,0@ 3480, 7333 Hcrit= 5471 HgtVar=6333 B/S=12 W*= 473 ETA NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 3730, 5800 Hcrit= 4190 HgtVar=9200 B/S=18 W*= 400 ETA WxC Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 4916, 9500 Hcrit= 7292 HgtVar=7785 B/S=25 W*= 562 ETA AVG Tmax=93.5> TI=-4,0@ 4307, 7300 Hcrit= 5438 HgtVar=9350 B/S=21 W*= 470 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 3330, 3896 Hcrit= 2798 HgtVar=7004 B/S= 5 W*= 337 MAPSanl:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 92 > Change@TI=+4: +664 (+0.9F) MAPS9h:07/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 3730, 5800 Hcrit= 4190 HgtVar=9200 B/S=18 W*= 400 ETAanal:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 92 > Change@TI=+4: -302 (-0.4F) ETA12hr:07/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 3027, 6333 Hcrit= 4314 HgtVar=7567 B/S=21 W*= 356 ETA24hr:07/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 92 > Change@TI=+4: -510 (-1.1F) ETA36hr:07/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 2936, 3500 Hcrit= 2288 HgtVar=4625 B/S=24 W*= 271 ETA48hr:07/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 92.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.1 F Surface elev Temp: 54.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.0 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1925 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17722 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3893 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 15.1 207 17 107 | 8.1 19500 13.6 106 | 9.3 19000 12.1 198 16 104 | 10.5 18500 11.0 103 | 12.1 18000 9.9 102 | 13.6 17500 9.0 187 13 101 | 15.5 17000 8.4 100 | 17.5 16500 7.9 100 | 19.6 16000 7.3 99 | 21.7 o 15500 6.7 99 | 23.8 o 15000 6.2 172 8 98 | 26.0 * o 14500 5.9 98 | 28.4 * o 14000 5.7 98 | 30.8 * o 13500 5.4 97 | 33.2 * o 13000 5.1 97 | 35.6 * o 12500 4.8 162 5 97 | 38.0 * o 12000 4.5 217 4 96 | 40.3 * o 11500 4.3 223 5 96 | 42.8 * o 11000 4.1 261 3 96 | 45.3 * o 10500 3.6 303 2 96 | 47.5 * o 10000 3.6 319 2 96 | 50.1 * o 9500 3.3 308 2 95 | 52.5 * o 9000 3.2 285 1 95 | 55.0 * o 8500 3.0 290 2 95 | 57.5 * o 8000 2.6 274 3 95 | 59.8 * o 7500 1.8 266 3 94 | 61.6 *o 7000 0.9 290 3 93 | 63.4 o 6500 0.9 303 2 93 | 66.1 *o 6000 0.8 052 2 93 | 68.7 o 5500 0.8 048 4 93 | 71.3 *o 5000 0.8 063 4 93 | 74.1 *o 4500 0.7 350 9 93 | 76.6 o 4000 0.6 346 14 93 | 79.2 *o 3500 -2.3 353 15 90 | 79.0 o* 3000 -7.3 353 13 85 | 76.6 o * 2500 -11.9 350 16 80 | 74.6 o * 2000 -25.2 358 9 67 | 64.1 . o * 1500 -34.6 039 3 57 ! 57.3 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 3893 36 -13043 16936 25980 0 11 -14848 18741 25980 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 92.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.6 F Surface elev Temp: 85.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 87.0 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1925 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 85.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 87.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14522 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5505 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 18.2 110 | 12.0 19500 17.6 231 15 110 | 14.0 19000 16.1 226 13 108 | 15.2 18500 14.2 220 11 106 | 16.0 18000 11.8 234 10 104 | 16.3 17500 11.3 103 | 18.4 17000 10.7 103 | 20.5 o 16500 10.2 102 | 22.7 o 16000 9.7 102 | 24.8 o 15500 9.1 107 8 101 | 26.9 o 15000 6.2 063 7 98 | 26.6 * o 14500 5.3 97 | 28.5 * o 14000 4.6 97 | 30.4 * o 13500 3.9 96 | 32.4 * o 13000 3.2 052 10 95 | 34.4 * o 12500 2.9 95 | 36.7 *o 12000 2.8 055 9 95 | 39.3 * o 11500 2.8 058 8 95 | 41.9 * o 11000 2.6 061 8 95 | 44.5 *o 10500 2.5 062 7 95 | 47.0 * o 10000 2.5 064 6 94 | 49.7 *o 9500 2.4 066 5 94 | 52.3 * o 9000 2.3 065 4 94 | 54.8 *o 8500 2.1 060 3 94 | 57.3 *o 8000 2.0 043 2 94 | 59.9 * o 7500 1.8 317 1 94 | 62.4 *o 7000 1.4 278 3 93 | 64.6 o 6500 1.0 269 5 93 | 66.9 *o 6000 0.5 264 7 92 | 69.1 o 5500 -0.0 261 9 92 | 71.2 o 5000 -0.9 260 11 91 | 73.0 o 4500 -1.6 271 13 90 | 75.0 o* 4000 -3.1 276 13 89 | 76.1 o * 3500 -4.1 292 15 88 | 77.8 . o * 3000 -5.1 292 15 87 | 79.5 . o * 2500 -5.1 291 14 87 | 82.2 . o * 2000 -4.9 290 12 87 | 85.0 . o * 1500 -6.1 289 8 86 ! 86.5 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 5505 20 -9917 15422 21798 0 17 -10531 16036 21798 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html