DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on FRI Feb 5 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4397,3575 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2581 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1770 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 264 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -129 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +5 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4446 ft LCL= 9428 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -7172 ft LCL= 10741 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: ,3714 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1326 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -252 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4350,6444 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4695 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KUKI ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 02/05:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 4397, 4985 Hcrit= 3836 HgtVar= 565 B/S=17 W*= 466 MAPS WxC Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@ 5132, 5650 Hcrit= 4474 HgtVar= 433 B/S=25 W*= 557 MAPS AVG Tmax=52.5> TI=-4,0@ 4764, 5352 Hcrit= 4184 HgtVar= 448 B/S=18 W*= 513 ETA NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ -, 2166 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=2976 B/S= 1 W*= 63 ETA WxC Tmax= 55 > TI=-4,0@ 3000, 5857 Hcrit= 3922 HgtVar=2365 B/S= 5 W*= 337 ETA AVG Tmax=52.5> TI=-4,0@ -, 4071 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=2706 B/S= 3 W*= 201 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 4397, 4985 Hcrit= 3836 HgtVar= 565 B/S=17 W*= 466 MAPSanl:02/05:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: -1081 (-8.9F) MAPS9h:02/06:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ -, 2166 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=2976 B/S= 1 W*= 63 ETAanal:02/05:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 53.2 > 50.0 pm NWS Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: +822 (-0.7F) ETA12hr:02/06:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ -, 3714 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=2286 B/S= 1 W*= 170 ETA24hr:02/06:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: -252 (+0.8F) ETA36hr:02/07:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 4350, 6444 Hcrit= 4695 HgtVar=2278 B/S= 5 W*= 423 ETA48hr:02/07:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 5-Feb-2010 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 50.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 50.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 50.5 F Surface elev Temp: 25.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 25.7 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 25.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 25.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14986 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4982 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 37.0 87 |-12.3 o 19500 36.1 86 |-10.5 o 19000 35.1 322 66 85 | -8.8 o 18500 34.0 84 | -7.3 o 18000 32.6 322 64 83 | -6.0 o 17500 31.2 322 63 81 | -4.7 o 17000 29.6 323 59 80 | -3.6 o 16500 27.9 78 | -2.7 o 16000 26.1 324 54 76 | -1.8 . o 15500 24.9 75 | -0.4 . o 15000 23.8 74 | 1.2 * o 14500 22.7 327 45 73 | 2.8 * o 14000 21.9 72 | 4.7 . * o 13500 21.0 71 | 6.5 . * o 13000 20.2 70 | 8.3 . * o 12500 19.4 328 39 69 | 10.2 . * o 12000 18.6 69 | 12.1 . * o 11500 17.9 68 | 14.1 . * o 11000 17.2 67 | 16.0 . * o 10500 16.5 322 33 66 | 18.0 . * o 10000 15.8 315 30 66 | 20.0 . * o 9500 15.1 65 | 21.9 . * o 9000 14.3 305 26 64 | 23.9 . * o 8500 13.7 306 23 64 | 25.9 . * o 8000 13.4 308 20 63 | 28.3 . * o 7500 13.3 313 18 63 | 30.8 . * o 7000 12.9 321 17 63 | 33.0 . * o 6500 11.5 322 17 61 | 34.3 . * o 6000 8.5 322 14 59 | 34.1 . * o 5500 3.5 010 9 54 | 31.7 . * o 5000 0.1 50 | 31.0 . o 4500 -3.3 47 | 30.3 . o * 4000 -6.7 43 | 29.5 . o * 3500 -10.1 40 | 28.8 . o * 3000 -13.5 37 | 28.1 . o * 2500 -16.9 33 | 27.4 . o * 2000 -20.3 30 | 26.6 . o * 1500 -23.7 122 5 26 ! 25.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 4982 -1 -4446 9428 15315 0 -1 -4446 9428 15315 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 6-Feb-2010 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 50.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 50.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 50.7 F Surface elev Temp: 37.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 38.6 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 37.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 38.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13392 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3569 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 41.7 92 | -7.4 . o 19500 41.2 302 42 91 | -5.2 . o 19000 40.2 90 | -3.6 . o 18500 39.0 299 38 89 | -2.1 . o 18000 37.3 299 37 87 | -1.1 . o 17500 34.8 300 36 85 | -1.0 . o 17000 33.5 84 | 0.5 . o 16500 32.3 307 35 82 | 1.9 . o 16000 30.6 81 | 2.9 . o 15500 28.9 310 35 79 | 3.8 . o 15000 27.0 310 34 77 | 4.7 * . o 14500 25.2 75 | 5.5 * . o 14000 23.2 312 31 73 | 6.2 * . o 13500 21.7 72 | 7.4 * . o 13000 20.2 311 29 70 | 8.6 * . o 12500 19.8 70 | 10.8 * . o 12000 19.5 70 | 13.2 * . o 11500 19.2 69 | 15.6 * . o 11000 19.0 69 | 18.0 * . o 10500 18.7 69 | 20.4 * . o 10000 18.5 286 18 68 | 22.8 *. o 9500 18.2 68 | 25.2 * o 9000 18.0 278 15 68 | 27.7 . * o 8500 17.2 272 12 67 | 29.6 . * o 8000 16.3 257 8 66 | 31.3 . * o 7500 14.8 210 4 65 | 32.5 . * o 7000 12.9 144 7 63 | 33.3 . * o 6500 11.7 123 11 62 | 34.7 . * o 6000 11.4 113 14 61 | 37.1 . * o 5500 10.4 110 12 60 | 38.8 . * o 5000 7.7 58 | 38.8 . * o 4500 5.0 55 | 38.8 . * o 4000 2.3 52 | 38.7 . * o 3500 -0.4 50 | 38.7 . o 3000 -3.1 47 | 38.7 . o * 2500 -5.8 44 | 38.7 . o * 2000 -8.4 42 | 38.7 . o * 1500 -11.1 110 8 39 ! 38.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 3569 -1 -7172 10741 12835 0 -1 -7172 10741 12835 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html