DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for CRAZY CREEK on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5431,6327 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4525 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1304 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 9 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 523 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +723 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 95% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2153 ft LCL= 7240 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1881 ft LCL= 8954 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2444,4062 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2486 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +343 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 1928,3666 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1326 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KUKI 031611Z 0316/0412 00000KT P6SM SCT250 TEMPO 0316/0318 SCT001 FM031800 VRB03KT P6SM FEW250 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at UKI @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 8588, 9393 Hcrit= 7725 HgtVar=1718 B/S= 9 W*= 832 MAPS WxC Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 9090,10000 Hcrit= 8281 HgtVar=2428 B/S= 9 W*= 893 MAPS AVG Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 8882, 9615 Hcrit= 7934 HgtVar=2099 B/S= 9 W*= 859 ETA NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2275, 3261 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar= 891 B/S=10 W*= 215 ETA WxC Tmax= 61 > TI=-4,0@ 2775, 3717 Hcrit= 2332 HgtVar= 869 B/S=12 W*= 264 ETA AVG Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 2525, 3500 Hcrit= 1998 HgtVar= 869 B/S=11 W*= 239 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 8588, 9393 Hcrit= 7725 HgtVar=1718 B/S= 9 W*= 832 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: +1102 (+3.9F) MAPS9h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at UKI for Sfc= 1326 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2275, 3261 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar= 891 B/S=10 W*= 215 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: +345 (+3.0F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2444, 4062 Hcrit= 2486 HgtVar=1201 B/S= 5 W*= 265 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: +343 (+2.4F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 1928, 3666 Hcrit= 1326 HgtVar=2863 B/S= 8 W*= 215 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from UKI MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 60.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 60.1 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12904 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 17 kt Convection overcast height: 8285 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9393 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 15.2 74 |-24.4 19500 14.7 74 |-22.3 19000 14.1 73 |-20.2 18500 13.6 027 18 73 |-18.1 18000 12.9 029 19 72 |-16.1 17500 12.3 71 |-14.0 17000 11.7 71 |-11.9 o 16500 11.1 70 | -9.8 .o 16000 10.5 040 23 70 | -7.8 .o 15500 9.9 69 | -5.7 .o 15000 9.3 68 | -3.6 * o 14500 8.8 68 | -1.5 * o 14000 8.2 67 | 0.6 * o 13500 7.6 053 31 67 | 2.7 * o 13000 6.9 66 | 4.6 * o 12500 6.1 65 | 6.6 * o. 12000 5.4 64 | 8.5 * o 11500 4.7 054 32 64 | 10.5 * o 11000 3.8 63 | 12.3 * o 10500 2.9 62 | 14.0 * o 10000 2.0 052 29 61 | 15.8 *o 9500 0.7 051 27 60 | 17.2 *o 9000 -2.6 053 26 56 | 16.6 o.* 8500 -4.3 052 24 55 | 17.5 o * 8000 -5.0 034 23 54 | 19.5 o * 7500 -5.9 030 23 53 | 21.2 o. * 7000 -7.2 026 26 52 | 22.6 o. * 6500 -8.4 019 25 51 | 24.0 o. * 6000 -9.5 005 19 50 | 25.7 o * 5500 -10.7 002 14 48 | 27.1 o * 5000 -13.4 46 | 27.2 o * 4500 -16.0 43 | 27.2 o * 4000 -18.7 40 | 27.2 o * 3500 -21.3 38 | 27.2 o * 3000 -24.0 35 | 27.2 o * 2500 -26.6 32 | 27.3 o * 2000 -29.3 30 | 27.3 o * 1500 -31.9 000 11 27 ! 27.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@ 9393 100 2153 7240 7314 0 93 732 8661 8690 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from UKI MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 60.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 60.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.2 F Surface elevation: 1326 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1326 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12976 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 24 kt Convection overcast height: 8630 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10835 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 15.1 74 |-24.5 19500 14.9 74 |-22.1 19000 14.6 74 |-19.7 18500 14.4 73 |-17.3 18000 14.1 019 24 73 |-14.9 17500 13.9 015 23 73 |-12.4 o 17000 11.9 040 30 71 |-11.7 o 16500 10.6 70 |-10.4 o 16000 9.9 69 | -8.4 . o 15500 9.1 68 | -6.5 .o 15000 8.4 67 | -4.6 * . o 14500 7.6 038 32 67 | -2.7 * . o 14000 6.6 66 | -1.0 * .o 13500 5.6 65 | 0.7 * .o 13000 4.6 040 31 64 | 2.3 * .o 12500 3.5 63 | 3.9 *.o 12000 2.5 61 | 5.6 *.o 11500 1.4 60 | 7.2 *o 11000 0.4 043 29 59 | 8.8 o 10500 -0.7 58 | 10.4 o 10000 -1.8 041 32 57 | 11.9 o* 9500 -2.9 039 34 56 | 13.6 o* 9000 -4.5 028 39 54 | 14.6 o * 8500 -5.0 023 38 54 | 16.8 o * 8000 -5.6 014 37 53 | 18.8 o * 7500 -6.4 010 36 53 | 20.8 o * 7000 -7.3 001 33 52 | 22.5 o * 6500 -8.1 358 31 51 | 24.4 o * 6000 -8.9 350 25 50 | 26.2 o * 5500 -10.0 347 20 49 | 27.8 o * 5000 -12.6 46 | 27.9 o * 4500 -15.2 44 | 27.9 o * 4000 -17.9 41 | 28.0 o * 3500 -20.5 39 | 28.0 o * 3000 -23.1 36 | 28.1 .o * 2500 -25.8 33 | 28.1 .o * 2000 -28.4 31 | 28.1 .o * 1500 -31.0 346 13 28 ! 28.2 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1326 TI=0@10835 100 3156 7679 7708 0 95 1881 8954 9002 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=95453 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/95453 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html