DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8635,10750 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 8769 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1822 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 17 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 897 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -3960 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 307 ft LCL= 11696 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -10667 ft LCL= 15340 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 5722,7833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5981 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -923 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 4769,7500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5739 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 9035,12000 Hcrit= 9900 HgtVar=2187 B/S=18 W*= 997 MAPS WxC Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 7562, 9035 Hcrit= 7348 HgtVar=2965 B/S=19 W*= 858 MAPS AVG Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 7875, 9791 Hcrit= 7990 HgtVar=3209 B/S=18 W*= 890 ETA NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 8235, 9500 Hcrit= 7638 HgtVar=1458 B/S=16 W*= 798 ETA WxC Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 7058, 8235 Hcrit= 6425 HgtVar=1265 B/S=12 W*= 658 ETA AVG Tmax= 99 > TI=-4,0@ 7647, 8866 Hcrit= 7057 HgtVar=1312 B/S=15 W*= 742 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 9035,12000 Hcrit= 9900 HgtVar=2187 B/S=18 W*= 997 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 101 > Change@TI=+4: -7253 (-15.3F) MAPS9h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 8235, 9500 Hcrit= 7638 HgtVar=1458 B/S=16 W*= 798 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 101 > Change@TI=+4: -667 (-2.3F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 5722, 7833 Hcrit= 5981 HgtVar=2452 B/S=35 W*= 590 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 101 > Change@TI=+4: -923 (-2.3F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@ 4769, 7500 Hcrit= 5739 HgtVar=2571 B/S=35 W*= 592 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:101.0 F Forecast max VirtT:103.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT:103.6 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18137 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12003 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 7.1 108 | 29.0 15500 6.2 107 | 30.8 15000 5.4 106 | 32.6 14500 4.5 248 21 106 | 34.4 14000 3.7 105 | 36.3 13500 2.9 104 | 38.1 13000 2.0 103 | 40.0 12500 1.1 251 16 102 | 41.7 12000 -0.0 101 | 43.3 11500 -0.9 255 15 100 | 45.0 11000 -1.1 253 15 100 | 47.5 10500 -1.2 252 15 100 | 50.1 10000 -1.5 247 16 99 | 52.5 o* 9500 -2.7 242 17 98 | 53.9 o * 9000 -4.1 234 18 97 | 55.2 o * 8500 -4.4 225 17 97 | 57.6 o * 8000 -5.3 210 14 96 | 59.4 o * 7500 -8.4 194 13 93 | 58.9 o * 7000 -10.6 179 12 90 | 59.5 o * 6500 -11.6 178 14 89 | 61.1 o * 6000 -13.4 175 15 88 | 61.9 o * 5500 -21.1 182 9 80 | 57.0 o * 5000 -23.9 77 | 56.8 o * 4500 -26.7 74 | 56.6 o * 4000 -29.6 71 | 56.5 o * 3500 -32.4 69 | 56.3 o * 3000 -35.2 66 | 56.2 o * 2500 -38.1 63 | 56.0 o * 2000 -40.9 60 | 55.8 o * 1500 -43.7 57 | 55.7 o * 1000 -46.6 54 ! 55.5 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@12003 73 307 11696 14427 0 70 -1001 13004 14427 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:101.0 F Forecast max VirtT:102.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT:102.9 F Surface elev Temp: 80.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 82.3 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 80.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 82.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 19783 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4673 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 5.5 107 | 26.8 15500 5.5 106 | 29.4 15000 5.4 106 | 32.0 14500 5.3 106 | 34.6 14000 5.3 106 | 37.2 13500 5.2 106 | 39.8 13000 5.1 106 | 42.4 12500 5.1 106 | 45.1 12000 5.0 261 19 106 | 47.7 11500 5.0 260 19 106 | 50.3 11000 4.9 257 18 106 | 52.9 10500 5.0 254 16 106 | 55.6 o 10000 5.0 250 16 106 | 58.3 * o 9500 5.0 246 15 106 | 61.0 * o 9000 5.0 241 13 106 | 63.7 * o 8500 4.9 236 13 106 | 66.3 * o 8000 5.0 231 12 106 | 69.1 * o 7500 5.0 225 11 106 | 71.7 * o 7000 5.0 220 10 106 | 74.4 * o 6500 4.9 214 9 106 | 77.0 * o 6000 5.0 206 8 106 | 79.7 * o 5500 4.3 196 7 105 | 81.7 * o 5000 1.7 103 | 81.8 * o 4500 -0.9 100 | 81.8 o 4000 -3.5 97 | 81.9 o * 3500 -6.1 95 | 82.0 o * 3000 -8.7 92 | 82.0 o * 2500 -11.3 90 | 82.1 o * 2000 -14.0 87 | 82.1 o * 1500 -16.6 84 | 82.2 o * 1000 -19.2 82 ! 82.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 4673 -1 -10667 15340 15945 0 -1 -10667 15340 15945 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html