DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on FRI Jul 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 12695,14419 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 11648 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1661 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 38 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 866 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1269 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 46% PM= 32% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1151 ft LCL= 13567 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3540 ft LCL= 16831 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 10444,12562 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10064 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -1204 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7214,9375 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7418 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 07/03:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@13090,14714 Hcrit=11789 HgtVar=1393 B/S=21 W*= 817 MAPS WxC Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@12600,14357 Hcrit=11397 HgtVar=1376 B/S=20 W*= 769 MAPS AVG Tmax=102.5> TI=-4,0@12850,14535 Hcrit=11594 HgtVar=1393 B/S=20 W*= 793 ETA NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@12300,14125 Hcrit=11508 HgtVar=1930 B/S=55 W*= 916 ETA WxC Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@10000,13708 Hcrit=11105 HgtVar=1842 B/S=79 W*= 876 ETA AVG Tmax=102.5> TI=-4,0@11500,13916 Hcrit=11306 HgtVar=1884 B/S=80 W*= 896 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@13090,14714 Hcrit=11789 HgtVar=1393 B/S=21 W*= 817 MAPSanl:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 103 > Change@TI=+4: -1527 (-4.6F) MAPS9h:07/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@12300,14125 Hcrit=11508 HgtVar=1930 B/S=55 W*= 916 ETAanal:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 103 > Change@TI=+4: -1012 (-2.5F) ETA12hr:07/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 103 > TI=-4,0@10444,12562 Hcrit=10064 HgtVar=1219 B/S=24 W*= 805 ETA24hr:07/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 103 > Change@TI=+4: -1204 (-3.5F) ETA36hr:07/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 7214, 9375 Hcrit= 7418 HgtVar=1468 B/S=26 W*= 722 ETA48hr:07/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:103.0 F Forecast max VirtT:104.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT:105.3 F Surface elev Temp: 72.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 74.5 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 259 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 980 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 72.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 74.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14954 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 28 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 14718 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 3.7 224 23 107 | 26.7 15500 2.3 105 | 27.9 15000 0.8 220 17 104 | 29.1 14500 -0.6 102 | 30.4 14000 -2.0 206 13 101 | 31.7 13500 -3.1 100 | 33.2 13000 -4.2 99 | 34.8 12500 -5.2 174 8 98 | 36.5 12000 -5.2 98 | 39.1 11500 -5.3 138 8 98 | 41.8 11000 -5.2 98 | 44.5 10500 -5.1 115 6 98 | 47.2 * 10000 -5.2 129 5 98 | 49.9 o * 9500 -5.1 159 4 98 | 52.6 o * 9000 -5.1 177 4 98 | 55.2 o * 8500 -5.1 169 4 98 | 57.9 o * 8000 -5.1 175 6 98 | 60.6 o * 7500 -5.5 160 4 98 | 62.9 o * 7000 -5.8 130 2 97 | 65.3 o * 6500 -6.2 134 2 97 | 67.5 o * 6000 -6.8 186 5 96 | 69.6 o * 5500 -7.3 189 3 96 | 71.8 o * 5000 -7.4 252 2 96 | 74.4 o * 4500 -7.5 245 2 96 | 77.0 o * 4000 -7.5 328 2 95 | 79.6 o * 3500 -7.6 018 3 95 | 82.2 o * 3000 -9.4 345 5 94 | 83.0 o * 2500 -11.4 334 9 92 | 83.7 o * 2000 -18.8 321 19 84 | 79.0 o * 1500 -26.2 329 24 77 | 74.3 o * 1000 -28.7 339 28 74 ! 74.5 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@14718 46 1151 13567 18061 0 39 -645 15363 18061 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:103.0 F Forecast max VirtT:104.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT:104.4 F Surface elev Temp: 98.6 F Surface elev VirtT:100.0 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 259 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1017 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 97.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 98.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15929 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13291 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 8.9 206 20 112 | 31.6 15500 7.5 111 | 32.9 15000 6.0 199 19 109 | 34.1 14500 4.3 107 | 35.0 14000 2.5 200 16 105 | 35.9 13500 0.7 104 | 36.8 13000 -1.0 219 14 102 | 37.7 12500 -1.9 101 | 39.5 12000 -2.8 241 16 100 | 41.3 11500 -3.4 245 17 100 | 43.3 11000 -3.8 247 17 99 | 45.7 10500 -3.9 248 17 99 | 48.2 * 10000 -4.0 248 17 99 | 50.7 o * 9500 -4.1 249 16 99 | 53.3 o * 9000 -4.2 249 14 99 | 55.9 o * 8500 -4.3 251 13 99 | 58.5 o * 8000 -4.3 252 11 99 | 61.2 o * 7500 -4.4 253 9 99 | 63.8 o * 7000 -4.5 255 7 98 | 66.3 o * 6500 -4.6 257 4 98 | 68.9 o * 6000 -4.7 286 1 98 | 71.5 o * 5500 -4.6 011 1 98 | 74.2 o * 5000 -4.6 023 2 98 | 76.9 o * 4500 -4.6 034 2 98 | 79.5 o * 4000 -4.6 037 3 98 | 82.2 o * 3500 -4.6 039 4 98 | 84.9 o * 3000 -4.6 036 4 98 | 87.6 o * 2500 -4.6 035 4 98 | 90.3 o * 2000 -4.6 034 5 98 | 93.0 o * 1500 -4.5 033 5 99 | 95.7 o * 1000 -4.4 033 5 99 ! 98.5 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@13291 37 -2721 16012 21504 0 32 -3540 16831 21504 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html