DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on THU Mar 11 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7068,8670 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 6924 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1553 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 17 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 755 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -710 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 96% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3016 ft LCL= 8182 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5640 ft LCL= 10866 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 2700,4300 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2640 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +62 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2888,4750 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2977 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 03/11:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 8777,11187 Hcrit= 9211 HgtVar=2213 B/S=10 W*= 972 MAPS WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 9375,11777 Hcrit= 9736 HgtVar=2030 B/S=10 W*=1013 MAPS AVG Tmax=64.5> TI=-4,0@ 9062,11500 Hcrit= 9488 HgtVar=2115 B/S= 9 W*= 993 ETA NWS Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 5360, 6153 Hcrit= 4638 HgtVar= 894 B/S=24 W*= 539 ETA WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 5560, 6346 Hcrit= 4829 HgtVar= 939 B/S=25 W*= 563 ETA AVG Tmax=64.5> TI=-4,0@ 5460, 6250 Hcrit= 4734 HgtVar= 916 B/S=25 W*= 551 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 8777,11187 Hcrit= 9211 HgtVar=2213 B/S=10 W*= 972 MAPSanl:03/11:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 64 > Change@TI=+4: -268 (-0.6F) MAPS9h:03/12:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 5360, 6153 Hcrit= 4638 HgtVar= 894 B/S=24 W*= 539 ETAanal:03/11:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 64 > Change@TI=+4: -1152 (-6.4F) ETA12hr:03/12:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 2700, 4300 Hcrit= 2640 HgtVar=1392 B/S=19 W*= 313 ETA24hr:03/12:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 64 > Change@TI=+4: +62 (+0.3F) ETA36hr:03/13:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 57 > TI=-4,0@ 2888, 4750 Hcrit= 2977 HgtVar=1571 B/S= 7 W*= 328 ETA48hr:03/13:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 11-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 64.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 64.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 64.9 F Surface elev Temp: 24.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 25.7 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 24.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 25.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15121 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 18 kt Convection overcast height: 9798 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11198 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 9.9 355 26 74 | -6.8 15500 9.0 73 | -5.1 15000 8.0 72 | -3.4 14500 6.8 351 30 71 | -1.8 14000 5.5 70 | -0.5 13500 4.2 345 36 68 | 0.8 13000 3.2 67 | 2.6 12500 2.3 66 | 4.3 12000 1.4 342 39 65 | 6.0 11500 0.5 65 | 7.8 11000 -0.3 64 | 9.7 10500 -1.2 63 | 11.5 10000 -2.0 62 | 13.4 o* 9500 -2.8 346 39 61 | 15.2 o * 9000 -3.6 347 39 60 | 17.1 . o * 8500 -4.5 60 | 18.9 . o * 8000 -5.9 345 35 58 | 20.2 . o * 7500 -7.6 343 29 56 | 21.1 . o * 7000 -8.2 346 26 56 | 23.2 .o * 6500 -9.0 349 21 55 | 25.1 . o * 6000 -12.2 344 10 52 | 24.5 . o * 5500 -14.2 329 7 50 | 25.2 . o * 5000 -16.9 47 | 25.2 . o * 4500 -19.5 45 | 25.3 . o * 4000 -22.1 42 | 25.3 . o * 3500 -24.7 39 | 25.4 . o * 3000 -27.3 37 | 25.4 . o * 2500 -30.0 34 | 25.5 . o * 2000 -32.6 31 | 25.5 . o * 1500 -35.2 29 | 25.6 . o * 1000 -37.8 26 ! 25.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@11198 96 3016 8182 9107 0 82 1436 9762 9864 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 12-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 64.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 64.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 64.8 F Surface elev Temp: 40.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 41.2 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 40.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 41.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16101 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 16 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 16 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5226 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 8.0 72 | -8.9 15500 7.3 71 | -6.9 15000 6.6 71 | -4.9 14500 6.0 70 | -2.9 14000 5.3 343 35 69 | -0.9 13500 4.7 69 | 1.2 13000 4.0 68 | 3.2 12500 3.4 67 | 5.2 12000 2.7 67 | 7.2 11500 2.4 340 38 66 | 9.5 11000 2.3 66 | 12.1 10500 2.2 66 | 14.8 10000 2.2 340 36 66 | 17.4 *o 9500 2.2 66 | 20.0 * o 9000 2.2 66 | 22.7 * o 8500 2.2 340 34 66 | 25.4 * o 8000 2.2 340 33 66 | 28.1 * o 7500 2.3 340 33 66 | 30.8 * o 7000 2.2 341 32 66 | 33.4 * o 6500 2.2 341 31 66 | 36.1 . * o 6000 2.1 343 28 66 | 38.7 . * o 5500 1.4 343 23 65 | 40.7 . *o 5000 -1.2 63 | 40.7 . o* 4500 -3.8 60 | 40.8 . o * 4000 -6.4 58 | 40.8 . o * 3500 -9.0 55 | 40.9 . o * 3000 -11.6 52 | 41.0 . o * 2500 -14.3 50 | 41.0 . o * 2000 -16.9 47 | 41.1 . o * 1500 -19.5 45 | 41.1 . o * 1000 -22.1 42 ! 41.2 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@ 5226 -1 -5640 10866 10953 0 -1 -5640 10866 10953 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html