DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on SAT May 17 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 11505,13458 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 10878 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1963 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 24 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 860 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +287 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -5 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 50% PM= 18% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 861 ft LCL= 12315 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5861 ft LCL= 16836 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 7583,11300 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8960 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -424 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 6928,9714 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7686 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KNLC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 05/17:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 106 > TI=-4,0@11611,13166 Hcrit=10610 HgtVar=2222 B/S=10 W*= 841 MAPS WxC Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 5100,10875 Hcrit= 8331 HgtVar=1910 B/S= 8 W*= 622 MAPS AVG Tmax=103.5> TI=-4,0@10050,12269 Hcrit= 9702 HgtVar=1668 B/S= 9 W*= 741 ETA NWS Tmax= 106 > TI=-4,0@11400,13750 Hcrit=11146 HgtVar=1704 B/S=39 W*= 880 ETA WxC Tmax= 101 > TI=-4,0@ 4923,10000 Hcrit= 7704 HgtVar=3333 B/S=38 W*= 633 ETA AVG Tmax=103.5> TI=-4,0@ 7700,12708 Hcrit=10121 HgtVar=1667 B/S=35 W*= 776 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 106 > TI=-4,0@11611,13166 Hcrit=10610 HgtVar=2222 B/S=10 W*= 841 MAPSanl:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 106 > Change@TI=+4: +822 (+2.0F) MAPS11h:05/18:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 106 > TI=-4,0@11400,13750 Hcrit=11146 HgtVar=1704 B/S=39 W*= 880 ETAanal:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 106 > Change@TI=+4: -248 (-0.6F) ETA12hr:05/18:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 106 > TI=-4,0@ 7583,11300 Hcrit= 8960 HgtVar=3741 B/S=13 W*= 747 ETA24hr:05/18:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 106 > Change@TI=+4: -424 (-0.7F) ETA36hr:05/19:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 104 > TI=-4,0@ 6928, 9714 Hcrit= 7686 HgtVar=2236 B/S=26 W*= 725 ETA48hr:05/19:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 17-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:106.0 F Forecast max VirtT:109.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT:109.3 F Surface elev Temp: 75.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 78.8 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 288 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 725 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 75.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 78.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11987 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 15 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13176 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 5.3 111 | 32.7 15500 4.2 110 | 34.3 15000 3.3 072 17 109 | 36.0 14500 2.4 108 | 37.9 14000 1.6 091 16 108 | 39.7 13500 0.8 096 17 107 | 41.5 13000 -0.4 106 | 43.0 12500 -1.9 097 17 104 | 44.2 12000 -3.3 107 15 103 | 45.5 11500 -4.2 134 15 102 | 47.2 11000 -4.9 148 19 101 | 49.3 * 10500 -5.6 153 19 100 | 51.2 * 10000 -6.6 148 19 99 | 52.9 o * 9500 -7.3 150 17 99 | 54.9 o * 9000 -7.7 152 9 98 | 57.1 o * 8500 -8.2 221 3 98 | 59.3 o * 8000 -8.2 220 6 98 | 62.0 o * 7500 -8.2 218 10 98 | 64.6 o * 7000 -8.1 241 10 98 | 67.4 o * 6500 -8.1 272 7 98 | 70.1 o * 6000 -8.1 286 4 98 | 72.7 o * 5500 -8.6 302 7 97 | 74.9 o * 5000 -9.2 315 9 97 | 77.0 o * 4500 -9.9 327 15 96 | 78.9 o * 4000 -12.0 330 17 94 | 79.6 o * 3500 -15.1 335 22 91 | 79.1 o * 3000 -17.6 340 25 88 | 79.3 . o * 2500 -19.9 348 26 86 | 79.6 . o * 2000 -22.3 341 31 84 | 79.9 . o * 1500 -24.8 339 28 81 | 80.1 . o * 1000 -27.7 334 18 78 ! 79.9 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@13176 50 861 12315 17445 0 32 -1406 14582 17445 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 18-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.:106.0 F Forecast max VirtT:107.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT:107.8 F Surface elev Temp:101.6 F Surface elev VirtT:103.4 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 288 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 744 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp:101.5 F Lowest elev VirtT:103.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15177 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 16 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10975 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 4.3 110 | 30.5 15500 3.4 109 | 32.2 15000 2.4 062 15 108 | 33.9 14500 1.8 108 | 35.9 14000 1.2 107 | 38.0 13500 0.6 073 17 107 | 40.1 13000 0.5 074 18 106 | 42.6 12500 0.3 106 | 45.2 12000 0.2 073 19 106 | 47.7 11500 0.2 070 19 106 | 50.4 11000 0.0 069 18 106 | 52.9 10500 -0.3 073 17 106 | 55.2 10000 -0.8 070 12 105 | 57.4 o 9500 -1.3 105 | 59.5 o * 9000 -1.8 072 8 104 | 61.7 o * 8500 -2.4 071 4 104 | 63.8 o * 8000 -3.0 003 2 103 | 65.9 o * 7500 -3.5 309 5 103 | 68.1 o * 7000 -4.0 299 10 102 | 70.2 o * 6500 -4.4 297 13 102 | 72.5 o * 6000 -4.6 305 16 101 | 74.9 o * 5500 -4.6 309 17 101 | 77.6 o * 5000 -4.6 315 18 101 | 80.3 o * 4500 -4.6 314 18 101 | 83.0 o * 4000 -4.6 316 18 101 | 85.6 o * 3500 -4.6 317 18 101 | 88.4 o * 3000 -4.6 319 18 101 | 91.0 o * 2500 -4.6 324 18 101 | 93.7 o * 2000 -4.4 322 18 102 | 96.5 o * 1500 -4.4 323 18 102 | 99.2 o * 1000 -4.3 323 17 102 !101.9 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@10975 21 -5217 16192 19848 0 18 -5861 16836 19848 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html