DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for AVENAL on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6592,8197 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 6511 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2025 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 741 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +739 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 84% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3285 ft LCL= 8285 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2902 ft LCL= 10192 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3055,6538 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4563 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: +272 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 2650,5250 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3454 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF COR KNLC 0315/0415 VRB06KT 9999 SKC QNH3004INS BECMG 0318/0320 8000 HZ FEW200 QNH2994INS BECMG 0413/0415 4800 BR SCT200 QNH3005INS T17/0323Z T01/0414Z COR 031430Z ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at NLC @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 720 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 9538,11571 Hcrit= 9622 HgtVar=2929 B/S=10 W*=1066 MAPS WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 9923,12285 Hcrit=10253 HgtVar=3115 B/S=10 W*=1112 MAPS AVG Tmax=67.5> TI=-4,0@ 9730,11928 Hcrit= 9937 HgtVar=2988 B/S=10 W*=1089 ETA NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 3647, 4823 Hcrit= 3400 HgtVar=1121 B/S=12 W*= 416 ETA WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 3941, 5111 Hcrit= 3677 HgtVar=1124 B/S=13 W*= 445 ETA AVG Tmax=67.5> TI=-4,0@ 3794, 4970 Hcrit= 3539 HgtVar=1118 B/S=13 W*= 430 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 9538,11571 Hcrit= 9622 HgtVar=2929 B/S=10 W*=1066 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +509 (+1.0F) MAPS9h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at NLC for Sfc= 720 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 3647, 4823 Hcrit= 3400 HgtVar=1121 B/S=12 W*= 416 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +969 (+4.7F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ 3055, 6538 Hcrit= 4563 HgtVar=1462 B/S=19 W*= 426 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: +272 (+1.1F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2650, 5250 Hcrit= 3454 HgtVar=2500 B/S=13 W*= 362 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from NLC MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 68.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 68.2 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14681 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 19 kt Convection overcast height: 9606 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11570 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 5.7 040 23 73 | -7.8 15500 5.1 72 | -5.7 15000 4.6 72 | -3.6 14500 4.0 71 | -1.5 14000 3.4 70 | 0.6 13500 2.8 053 31 70 | 2.7 13000 2.1 69 | 4.6 12500 1.3 68 | 6.6 12000 0.6 68 | 8.5 11500 -0.1 054 32 67 | 10.5 11000 -1.0 66 | 12.3 10500 -1.9 65 | 14.0 * 10000 -2.8 052 29 64 | 15.8 o * 9500 -4.1 051 27 63 | 17.2 o * 9000 -7.3 053 26 60 | 16.6 o * 8500 -9.1 052 24 58 | 17.5 o * 8000 -9.8 034 23 57 | 19.5 o * 7500 -10.7 030 23 56 | 21.2 o. * 7000 -12.0 026 26 55 | 22.6 o. * 6500 -13.2 019 25 54 | 24.0 o * 6000 -14.2 005 19 53 | 25.7 o. * 5500 -15.5 002 14 52 | 27.1 o * 5000 -18.1 49 | 27.1 o * 4500 -20.8 46 | 27.2 o * 4000 -23.4 44 | 27.2 o * 3500 -26.1 41 | 27.2 o * 3000 -28.8 38 | 27.2 o * 2500 -31.4 36 | 27.2 o * 2000 -34.1 33 | 27.3 o * 1500 -36.7 30 | 27.3 o * 1000 -39.4 28 ! 27.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@11570 100 3285 8285 7969 0 101 1549 10021 10099 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from NLC MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 67.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 68.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 68.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.2 F Surface elevation: 720 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 720 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14754 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 25 kt Convection overcast height: 10086 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 13094 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 5.1 72 | -8.4 15500 4.3 71 | -6.5 15000 3.6 71 | -4.6 14500 2.8 038 32 70 | -2.7 14000 1.8 69 | -1.0 13500 0.8 68 | 0.7 13000 -0.2 040 31 67 | 2.3 12500 -1.2 66 | 3.9 12000 -2.3 65 | 5.6 11500 -3.4 64 | 7.2 11000 -4.4 043 29 63 | 8.8 * 10500 -5.5 61 | 10.4 * 10000 -6.6 041 32 60 | 11.9 o * 9500 -7.6 039 34 59 | 13.6 o * 9000 -9.3 028 39 58 | 14.6 o * 8500 -9.8 023 38 57 | 16.8 o. * 8000 -10.4 014 37 57 | 18.8 o * 7500 -11.2 010 36 56 | 20.8 o * 7000 -12.1 001 33 55 | 22.5 o * 6500 -12.9 358 31 54 | 24.4 o. * 6000 -13.7 350 25 53 | 26.2 o * 5500 -14.8 347 20 52 | 27.8 o * 5000 -17.4 50 | 27.9 o * 4500 -20.0 47 | 27.9 o * 4000 -22.7 44 | 28.0 o * 3500 -25.3 42 | 28.0 o * 3000 -27.9 39 | 28.0 o * 2500 -30.6 36 | 28.1 o * 2000 -33.2 34 | 28.1 .o * 1500 -35.8 31 | 28.1 .o * 1000 -38.5 29 ! 28.2 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 720 TI=0@13094 100 5050 8044 8019 0 84 2902 10192 10279 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=93204 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/93204 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html