DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on TUE Jul 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5241,5878 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4214 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 662 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 32 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 513 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1467 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 64% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2348 ft LCL= 3556 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1297 ft LCL= 5799 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 3791,4625 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3129 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: -1591 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 2100,3500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1832 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 07/14:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 5195, 5906 Hcrit= 4222 HgtVar= 774 B/S=18 W*= 509 MAPS WxC Tmax= 71 > TI=-4,0@ 3900, 5413 Hcrit= 3686 HgtVar= 667 B/S=20 W*= 444 MAPS AVG Tmax=72.5> TI=-4,0@ 4800, 5671 Hcrit= 3968 HgtVar= 709 B/S=17 W*= 477 ETA NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 5287, 5851 Hcrit= 4207 HgtVar= 551 B/S=46 W*= 518 ETA WxC Tmax= 71 > TI=-4,0@ 4625, 5424 Hcrit= 3730 HgtVar= 562 B/S=41 W*= 455 ETA AVG Tmax=72.5> TI=-4,0@ 5058, 5638 Hcrit= 3974 HgtVar= 556 B/S=44 W*= 487 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 5195, 5906 Hcrit= 4222 HgtVar= 774 B/S=18 W*= 509 MAPSanl:07/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -1023 (-6.3F) MAPS10h:07/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 5287, 5851 Hcrit= 4207 HgtVar= 551 B/S=46 W*= 518 ETAanal:07/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -1912 (-15.1F) ETA12hr:07/15:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@ 3791, 4625 Hcrit= 3129 HgtVar=1182 B/S=26 W*= 435 ETA24hr:07/15:12Z WEDpm NWS Tmax= 79 > Change@TI=+4: -1591 (-7.8F) ETA36hr:07/16:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@ 2100, 3500 Hcrit= 1832 HgtVar=1500 B/S=27 W*= 296 ETA48hr:07/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 14-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 74.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 76.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 76.5 F Surface elev Temp: 54.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 57.3 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 295 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 57.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 6390 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 1 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5904 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 31.3 309 18 105 | 12.0 * o 17500 30.5 105 | 13.9 * o 17000 29.8 104 | 15.8 * o 16500 29.0 103 | 17.7 * o 16000 28.2 316 16 102 | 19.6 * o 15500 27.4 101 | 21.5 * o 15000 26.6 101 | 23.3 * o 14500 25.7 322 16 100 | 25.2 * o 14000 24.8 99 | 26.9 * o 13500 23.8 98 | 28.6 * o 13000 22.8 328 18 97 | 30.3 * o 12500 21.8 96 | 31.9 * o 12000 20.6 95 | 33.4 . * o 11500 19.5 335 15 94 | 35.0 . * o 11000 18.4 92 | 36.5 . * o 10500 17.2 336 15 91 | 38.0 . * o 10000 16.1 336 15 90 | 39.6 . * o 9500 15.5 335 16 90 | 41.7 . * o 9000 14.8 334 17 89 | 43.6 . * o 8500 12.9 87 | 44.4 . * o 8000 10.2 334 18 84 | 44.4 . * o 7500 7.8 338 18 82 | 44.6 . * o 7000 5.6 341 18 80 | 45.1 .* o 6500 3.1 344 16 77 | 45.3 .* o 6000 0.6 353 13 75 | 45.5 . o 5500 -2.6 000 10 71 | 44.9 . o* 5000 -4.9 346 5 69 | 45.3 .o * 4500 -6.4 305 4 68 | 46.5 o * 4000 -7.0 282 4 67 | 48.6 o * 3500 -8.6 265 5 65 | 49.6 o * 3000 -12.1 268 5 62 | 48.8 .o * 2500 -13.3 304 4 61 | 50.2 .o * 2000 -14.0 314 7 60 | 52.2 . o * 1500 -14.9 323 8 59 | 54.0 . o * 1000 -15.4 333 7 59 | 56.1 . o * 500 -16.8 333 4 57 ! 57.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 5904 100 2348 3556 10251 0 83 -99 6003 10251 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 74.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 76.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 76.8 F Surface elev Temp: 68.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 71.0 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 295 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 68.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 71.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4502 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 30.7 105 | 11.8 * . o 17500 30.0 104 | 13.8 * . o 17000 29.2 103 | 15.7 * . o 16500 28.5 298 18 103 | 17.7 * . o 16000 27.7 102 | 19.5 * o 15500 26.9 101 | 21.4 . * o 15000 26.1 100 | 23.3 . * o 14500 25.3 308 16 99 | 25.2 . * o 14000 24.6 99 | 27.1 . * o 13500 23.8 98 | 29.0 . * o 13000 23.1 97 | 30.9 . * o 12500 22.3 316 15 96 | 32.8 . * o 12000 21.4 95 | 34.6 . * o 11500 20.5 94 | 36.3 . * o 11000 19.5 318 14 94 | 38.0 . * o 10500 18.8 319 14 93 | 40.0 . * o 10000 18.1 319 14 92 | 41.9 . * o 9500 17.4 322 14 91 | 43.9 . * o 9000 16.5 325 14 91 | 45.7 . * o 8500 15.6 326 13 90 | 47.5 . * o 8000 14.5 88 | 49.1 . * o 7500 13.0 323 12 87 | 50.2 . * o 7000 11.2 309 11 85 | 51.1 . * o 6500 9.1 299 11 83 | 51.7 . * o 6000 6.6 301 12 81 | 51.8 . * o 5500 3.9 308 11 78 | 51.8 . * o 5000 1.6 317 9 76 | 52.2 . *o 4500 -0.0 328 6 74 | 53.3 . o 4000 -1.3 349 4 73 | 54.7 . o* 3500 -2.2 019 4 72 | 56.4 . o* 3000 -3.3 342 5 71 | 58.0 . o* 2500 -4.1 340 5 70 | 59.8 . o* 2000 -4.7 320 9 69 | 62.0 . o * 1500 -5.1 310 10 69 | 64.2 . o * 1000 -5.2 303 11 69 | 66.7 . o * 500 -5.3 299 11 69 ! 69.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 4502 67 -478 4980 10634 0 64 -1297 5799 10634 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html