DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on SAT May 17 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 1380,1668 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 397 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 901 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 218 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +497 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -9 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 72% PM= 57% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3368 ft LCL= 4846 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3735 ft LCL= 4460 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 583 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SUN AM HEIGHTS: 1770,2522 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1090 ftMSL SUN PM CHANGE: -993 ft @TI=+4 MON AM HEIGHTS: 1863,3166 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1632 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 05/17:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 1201, 1479 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 854 B/S= 4 W*= 198 MAPS WxC Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@ 722, 904 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 226 B/S= 2 W*= 121 MAPS AVG Tmax=77.5> TI=-4,0@ 927, 1166 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 278 B/S= 3 W*= 157 ETA NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 1559, 1858 Hcrit= 658 HgtVar= 949 B/S=21 W*= 238 ETA WxC Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@ 931, 1208 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 278 B/S= 9 W*= 150 ETA AVG Tmax=77.5> TI=-4,0@ 1243, 1522 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 298 B/S=12 W*= 194 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 1201, 1479 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 854 B/S= 4 W*= 198 MAPSanl:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: +802 (+7.1F) MAPS11h:05/18:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 1559, 1858 Hcrit= 658 HgtVar= 949 B/S=21 W*= 238 ETAanal:05/17:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: +193 (+1.5F) ETA12hr:05/18:00Z SUNam NWS Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 1770, 2522 Hcrit= 1090 HgtVar= 909 B/S=12 W*= 258 ETA24hr:05/18:12Z SUNpm NWS Tmax= 68 > Change@TI=+4: -993 (-6.9F) ETA36hr:05/19:00Z MONam wxc Tmax= 69 > TI=-4,0@ 1863, 3166 Hcrit= 1632 HgtVar=1834 B/S=17 W*= 291 ETA48hr:05/19:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 17-May-2008 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 84.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 84.5 F Surface elev Temp: 58.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 60.6 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 344 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 58.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 60.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 7623 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1478 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 32.0 114 | 21.0 * o 17500 31.2 239 23 113 | 22.9 * o 17000 30.3 112 | 24.6 * o 16500 29.4 111 | 26.4 * o 16000 28.5 110 | 28.2 * o 15500 27.5 237 22 110 | 29.9 * o 15000 26.7 109 | 31.7 * o 14500 25.8 108 | 33.5 * o 14000 24.9 237 18 107 | 35.3 * o 13500 24.3 106 | 37.3 * o 13000 23.8 106 | 39.5 * o 12500 23.2 239 16 105 | 41.6 . * o 12000 22.3 239 15 104 | 43.4 . * o 11500 21.3 238 16 103 | 45.1 . * o 11000 20.5 239 16 103 | 47.0 . * o 10500 19.6 246 15 102 | 48.7 . * o 10000 18.5 241 15 100 | 50.2 . * o 9500 17.2 241 13 99 | 51.6 . * o 9000 15.9 235 12 98 | 53.0 . * o 8500 15.0 229 11 97 | 54.7 . * o 8000 14.5 224 10 96 | 56.9 . * o 7500 14.0 216 10 96 | 59.2 . * o 7000 13.7 207 10 96 | 61.5 . * o 6500 13.2 200 10 95 | 63.7 . * o 6000 12.8 192 11 95 | 65.9 . * o 5500 12.1 191 11 94 | 67.9 . * o 5000 11.1 198 11 93 | 69.6 . * o 4500 10.0 205 13 92 | 71.2 . * o 4000 9.1 215 13 91 | 73.0 . * o 3500 8.4 215 13 90 | 74.9 . * o 3000 7.0 210 12 89 | 76.2 . * o 2500 4.8 213 12 87 | 76.6 . * o 2000 2.4 190 9 84 | 76.9 . *o 1500 0.3 179 8 82 | 77.5 . o 1000 -6.9 163 8 75 | 73.0 . o * 500 -17.9 095 14 64 ! 64.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 1478 72 -3368 4846 13659 0 38 -6236 7714 13659 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 18-May-2008 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 85.7 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 86.1 F Surface elev Temp: 74.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 78.5 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 344 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 74.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 78.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 5231 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 7 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 725 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 28.2 110 | 18.4 * o 17500 27.0 109 | 19.9 * o 17000 25.9 236 38 108 | 21.5 * o 16500 25.3 107 | 23.6 * o 16000 24.7 107 | 25.6 . * o 15500 24.1 106 | 27.7 . * o 15000 23.5 231 34 105 | 29.7 . * o 14500 22.7 105 | 31.6 . * o 14000 21.8 104 | 33.4 . * o 13500 20.9 103 | 35.1 . * o 13000 20.0 233 32 102 | 36.9 . * o 12500 19.4 101 | 39.0 . * o 12000 18.8 235 32 101 | 41.1 . * o 11500 17.9 237 31 100 | 42.9 . * o 11000 17.1 99 | 44.8 . * o 10500 16.3 238 30 98 | 46.6 . * o 10000 15.3 238 28 97 | 48.2 . * o 9500 14.3 238 26 96 | 50.0 . * o 9000 13.2 237 25 95 | 51.5 . * o 8500 12.2 236 24 94 | 53.2 . * o 8000 11.0 236 23 93 | 54.7 . * o 7500 10.0 235 23 92 | 56.4 . * o 7000 9.0 234 23 91 | 58.1 . * o 6500 8.2 232 23 90 | 59.8 . * o 6000 7.4 231 23 89 | 61.7 . * o 5500 6.5 229 24 88 | 63.5 . * o 5000 5.6 234 25 88 | 65.4 . * o 4500 4.7 226 25 87 | 67.1 . * o 4000 3.7 221 25 86 | 68.8 . *o 3500 2.7 214 24 85 | 70.4 . *o 3000 1.8 205 24 84 | 72.2 . *o 2500 1.3 208 23 83 | 74.4 . *o 2000 1.0 196 23 83 | 76.8 . o 1500 0.9 194 22 83 | 79.3 . o 1000 0.8 192 20 83 | 81.9 . *o 500 -0.6 188 15 81 ! 83.1 . o* CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 725 67 -3270 3995 7100 377 57 -3735 4460 7100 583 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html