DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on SUN Mar 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4025,5176 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3678 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 916 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 24 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 495 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -493 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2537 ft LCL= 6856 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3184 ft LCL= 7079 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) MON AM HEIGHTS: 2500,4590 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2925 ftMSL MON PM CHANGE: -2437 ft @TI=+4 TUE AM HEIGHTS: 292,800 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 137 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 03/14:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 3589, 4314 Hcrit= 3019 HgtVar= 741 B/S=17 W*= 473 MAPS WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 3589, 4314 Hcrit= 3019 HgtVar= 741 B/S=17 W*= 473 MAPS AVG Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 3589, 4314 Hcrit= 3019 HgtVar= 741 B/S=17 W*= 473 ETA NWS Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 4461, 6038 Hcrit= 4337 HgtVar=1092 B/S=31 W*= 517 ETA WxC Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 4461, 6038 Hcrit= 4337 HgtVar=1092 B/S=31 W*= 517 ETA AVG Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 4461, 6038 Hcrit= 4337 HgtVar=1092 B/S=31 W*= 517 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 3589, 4314 Hcrit= 3019 HgtVar= 741 B/S=17 W*= 473 MAPSanl:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 54 > Change@TI=+4: -350 (-2.3F) MAPS10h:03/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 4461, 6038 Hcrit= 4337 HgtVar=1092 B/S=31 W*= 517 ETAanal:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 54 > Change@TI=+4: -637 (-2.6F) ETA12hr:03/15:00Z MONam NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 2500, 4590 Hcrit= 2925 HgtVar=1443 B/S=11 W*= 384 ETA24hr:03/15:12Z MONpm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: -2437 (-10.4F) ETA36hr:03/16:00Z TUEam wxc Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 292, 800 Hcrit= 137 HgtVar= 500 B/S= 4 W*= 84 ETA48hr:03/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 14-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 54.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 55.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 55.1 F Surface elev Temp: 31.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 32.3 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 31.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 32.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11893 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4319 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 36.1 90 | -4.2 * . o 17500 35.4 89 | -2.2 * . o 17000 34.8 175 18 89 | -0.2 * . o 16500 34.3 88 | 2.0 * . o 16000 33.9 88 | 4.2 * . o 15500 33.4 87 | 6.5 * . o 15000 33.0 87 | 8.7 * . o 14500 32.6 87 | 10.9 * . o 14000 32.1 86 | 13.1 * . o 13500 31.7 139 17 86 | 15.4 * . o 13000 31.2 85 | 17.6 * . o 12500 30.8 85 | 19.9 * . o 12000 30.4 84 | 22.1 * . o 11500 30.0 84 | 24.4 * . o 11000 29.6 84 | 26.7 * . o 10500 29.2 83 | 28.9 * . o 10000 28.8 122 18 83 | 31.2 * . o 9500 27.9 127 17 82 | 33.0 * . o 9000 24.7 153 15 79 | 32.5 * . o 8500 20.2 177 18 74 | 30.6 * . o 8000 17.4 184 21 71 | 30.5 * . o 7500 15.6 183 21 70 | 31.4 * . o 7000 14.2 184 21 68 | 32.6 * . o 6500 10.1 186 19 64 | 31.2 * .o 6000 9.0 168 12 63 | 32.7 * . o 5500 6.4 155 10 60 | 32.9 * o 5000 3.7 58 | 32.8 .* o 4500 1.0 55 | 32.8 . *o 4000 -1.7 52 | 32.7 . o* 3500 -4.5 50 | 32.7 . o * 3000 -7.2 47 | 32.6 . o * 2500 -9.9 44 | 32.6 . o * 2000 -12.6 41 | 32.5 . o * 1500 -15.3 39 | 32.5 . o * 1000 -18.1 36 | 32.4 . o * 500 -20.8 33 ! 32.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 4319 -1 -2537 6856 12635 0 -1 -2537 6856 12635 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 54.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 55.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 55.2 F Surface elev Temp: 34.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 35.5 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 34.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 35.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11471 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3895 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 33.9 88 | -6.4 * . o 17500 33.3 87 | -4.3 * . o 17000 32.7 87 | -2.3 * . o 16500 32.1 118 25 86 | -0.2 * . o 16000 31.0 85 | 1.4 * . o 15500 29.9 84 | 3.0 * . o 15000 28.8 103 19 83 | 4.6 * . o 14500 27.7 82 | 6.1 * . o 14000 26.6 81 | 7.7 .* o 13500 25.2 095 20 79 | 9.0 .* o 13000 23.4 077 19 77 | 9.9 *. o 12500 22.4 76 | 11.5 * . o 12000 21.7 76 | 13.5 * o 11500 21.0 75 | 15.5 .* o 11000 20.3 74 | 17.5 . * o 10500 19.7 067 11 74 | 19.5 . * o 10000 17.8 063 11 72 | 20.2 . * o 9500 13.9 059 10 68 | 19.0 * o 9000 11.3 65 | 19.2 * . o 8500 11.1 035 18 65 | 21.6 * .o 8000 10.3 041 16 64 | 23.5 * o. 7500 9.6 048 15 64 | 25.5 * o. 7000 9.1 052 14 63 | 27.6 * o 6500 9.1 052 14 63 | 30.3 * .o 6000 9.0 052 14 63 | 32.8 * . o 5500 8.4 052 12 62 | 35.0 *. o 5000 5.8 60 | 35.0 * o 4500 3.2 57 | 35.1 .* o 4000 0.6 55 | 35.1 . o 3500 -2.1 52 | 35.2 . o* 3000 -4.7 49 | 35.2 . o * 2500 -7.3 47 | 35.3 . o * 2000 -9.9 44 | 35.3 . o * 1500 -12.6 41 | 35.4 . o * 1000 -15.2 39 | 35.4 . o * 500 -17.8 36 ! 35.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 3895 -1 -3184 7079 7030 0 -1 -3184 7079 7030 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html