DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for ARLINGTON,WA on THU Sep 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3320,4005 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 2629 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 725 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 18 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 403 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1914 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -2 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6123 ft LCL= 9360 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -11608 ft LCL= 13545 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1446,1895 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 532 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -289 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2464,3923 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2378 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KPAE ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at AWO @ 09/02:12Z for Sfc= 137 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 2621, 3234 Hcrit= 1959 HgtVar= 614 B/S=10 W*= 349 MAPS WxC Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 2312, 2924 Hcrit= 1641 HgtVar= 621 B/S= 9 W*= 315 MAPS AVG Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@ 2468, 3078 Hcrit= 1801 HgtVar= 618 B/S=10 W*= 332 ETA NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 4019, 4777 Hcrit= 3299 HgtVar= 836 B/S=27 W*= 458 ETA WxC Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 3620, 4403 Hcrit= 2916 HgtVar= 770 B/S=25 W*= 414 ETA AVG Tmax= 73 > TI=-4,0@ 3820, 4592 Hcrit= 3110 HgtVar= 799 B/S=26 W*= 436 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 2621, 3234 Hcrit= 1959 HgtVar= 614 B/S=10 W*= 349 MAPSanl:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -853 (-6.9F) MAPS10h:09/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at AWO for Sfc= 137 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 4019, 4777 Hcrit= 3299 HgtVar= 836 B/S=27 W*= 458 ETAanal:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -2976 (-17.7F) ETA12hr:09/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 1446, 1895 Hcrit= 532 HgtVar=1105 B/S=41 W*= 229 ETA24hr:09/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 76 > Change@TI=+4: -289 (-2.0F) ETA36hr:09/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 66 > TI=-4,0@ 2464, 3923 Hcrit= 2378 HgtVar=1477 B/S=11 W*= 352 ETA48hr:09/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from AWO MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 74.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 75.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 75.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13700 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3237 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 41.0 115 | 21.4 * . o 17500 40.0 114 | 23.1 * . o 17000 38.9 292 34 113 | 24.7 * . o 16500 37.4 111 | 25.8 * . o 16000 35.9 288 30 110 | 27.0 * . o 15500 35.2 109 | 28.9 * . o 15000 34.4 108 | 30.9 * . o 14500 33.7 108 | 32.8 * . o 14000 32.9 291 22 107 | 34.7 * . o 13500 32.6 107 | 37.0 * . o 13000 32.3 106 | 39.4 * . o 12500 32.0 106 | 41.8 * . o 12000 31.7 106 | 44.2 * . o 11500 31.4 273 13 105 | 46.5 * . o 11000 31.2 289 15 105 | 49.0 * . o 10500 30.7 300 15 105 | 51.1 * . o 10000 30.1 304 16 104 | 53.3 * . o 9500 29.3 313 16 103 | 55.1 * . o 9000 28.5 321 17 103 | 57.0 * . o 8500 27.2 330 17 101 | 58.4 *. o 8000 24.7 339 17 99 | 58.5 .* o 7500 21.5 002 17 96 | 58.0 .* o 7000 18.9 009 17 93 | 58.1 . * o 6500 17.5 000 15 92 | 59.4 .* o 6000 17.3 342 13 91 | 61.9 . * o 5500 14.7 333 7 89 | 61.9 . * o 5000 11.4 85 | 61.3 . * o 4500 8.2 82 | 60.7 . * o 4000 5.0 79 | 60.2 . * o 3500 1.7 76 | 59.6 . *o 3000 -1.5 72 | 59.0 . o* 2500 -4.8 69 | 58.5 . o * 2000 -8.0 66 | 57.9 . o * 1500 -11.3 63 | 57.3 . o * 1000 -14.5 59 | 56.7 . o * 500 -17.7 56 ! 56.2 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 3237 -1 -6123 9360 15384 0 -1 -6123 9360 15384 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from AWO MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 74.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 75.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 75.3 F Surface elev Temp: 64.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.1 F Surface elevation: 137 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 137 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 64.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15516 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 11 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 1937 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 44.7 119 | 24.6 * o 17500 44.2 118 | 26.7 * o 17000 43.6 118 | 28.8 * o 16500 43.1 117 | 31.0 * o 16000 42.0 302 34 116 | 32.6 * o 15500 40.3 302 36 114 | 33.6 * o 15000 37.0 295 37 111 | 32.9 * o 14500 33.1 107 | 31.6 . * o 14000 32.3 106 | 33.5 .* o 13500 31.5 105 | 35.4 * . o 13000 30.7 277 33 105 | 37.2 * . o 12500 28.6 103 | 37.9 * . o 12000 24.1 284 25 98 | 36.0 * . o 11500 21.1 313 16 95 | 35.7 * . o 11000 20.3 94 | 37.6 * . o 10500 19.6 337 12 94 | 39.6 * . o 10000 19.2 347 11 93 | 41.8 * . o 9500 18.8 007 12 93 | 44.1 *. o 9000 18.7 021 13 93 | 46.7 * o 8500 18.6 026 15 93 | 49.2 .* o 8000 18.7 032 16 93 | 52.0 . * o 7500 18.7 035 17 93 | 54.7 . * o 7000 18.7 036 17 93 | 57.4 . * o 6500 18.7 038 18 93 | 60.1 . * o 6000 18.8 039 17 93 | 62.8 . * o 5500 18.3 040 15 92 | 65.0 . * o 5000 15.8 90 | 65.1 . * o 4500 13.2 87 | 65.2 . * o 4000 10.6 85 | 65.3 . * o 3500 8.0 82 | 65.4 . * o 3000 5.5 79 | 65.5 . * o 2500 2.9 77 | 65.6 . * o 2000 0.3 74 | 65.7 . o 1500 -2.2 72 | 65.8 . o* 1000 -4.8 69 | 65.9 . o * 500 -7.4 67 ! 66.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 137 TI=0@ 1937 -1 -11608 13545 19834 0 -1 -11608 13545 19834 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98201 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98201 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html