DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TONOPAH,NV on THU Sep 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 15568,17583 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 15237 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2360 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 28 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 934 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +413 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 54% PM= 37% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3266 ft LCL= 16377 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1929 ft LCL= 19518 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 16571,19833 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 17051 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -1526 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 16428,18031 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 15498 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTPH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at TPH @ 09/02:12Z for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@17636,19666 Hcrit=17120 HgtVar=1970 B/S= 9 W*=1075 MAPS WxC Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@17150,19111 Hcrit=16612 HgtVar=2070 B/S= 9 W*=1033 MAPS AVG Tmax=89.5> TI=-4,0@17400,19388 Hcrit=16864 HgtVar=2021 B/S= 9 W*=1053 ETA NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@13500,15500 Hcrit=13355 HgtVar=2750 B/S=47 W*= 793 ETA WxC Tmax= 89 > TI=-4,0@13083,14900 Hcrit=12814 HgtVar=2433 B/S=45 W*= 752 ETA AVG Tmax=89.5> TI=-4,0@13291,15187 Hcrit=13073 HgtVar=2613 B/S=46 W*= 772 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@17636,19666 Hcrit=17120 HgtVar=1970 B/S= 9 W*=1075 MAPSanl:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 90 > Change@TI=+4: -216 (-0.5F) MAPS10h:09/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 90 > TI=-4,0@13500,15500 Hcrit=13355 HgtVar=2750 B/S=47 W*= 793 ETAanal:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 90 > Change@TI=+4: +1043 (+2.2F) ETA12hr:09/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@16571,19833 Hcrit=17051 HgtVar=3000 B/S=28 W*= 934 ETA24hr:09/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 92 > Change@TI=+4: -1526 (-2.5F) ETA36hr:09/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@16428,18031 Hcrit=15498 HgtVar=1315 B/S=17 W*= 872 ETA48hr:09/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from TPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 90.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 91.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 91.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17464 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 22 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 19643 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 0.6 91 | 14.6 19500 -0.3 90 | 16.4 19000 -1.2 297 39 89 | 18.1 18500 -2.2 296 37 88 | 19.8 * 18000 -3.2 87 | 21.4 o * 17500 -4.3 86 | 23.1 o * 17000 -5.3 292 34 85 | 24.7 o * 16500 -6.9 83 | 25.8 o * 16000 -8.4 288 30 82 | 27.0 o * 15500 -9.1 81 | 28.9 o * 15000 -9.8 80 | 30.9 o * 14500 -10.6 79 | 32.8 o * 14000 -11.3 291 22 79 | 34.7 o * 13500 -11.7 78 | 37.0 o * 13000 -12.0 78 | 39.4 o * 12500 -12.3 78 | 41.8 . o * 12000 -12.6 77 | 44.2 . o * 11500 -12.8 273 13 77 | 46.5 . o * 11000 -13.1 289 15 77 | 49.0 . o * 10500 -13.6 300 15 76 | 51.1 . o * 10000 -14.1 304 16 76 | 53.3 . o * 9500 -14.9 313 16 75 | 55.1 . o * 9000 -15.7 321 17 74 | 57.0 . o * 8500 -17.1 330 17 73 | 58.4 . o * 8000 -19.6 339 17 70 | 58.5 . o * 7500 -22.7 002 17 67 | 58.0 . o * 7000 -25.3 009 17 65 | 58.1 . o * 6500 -26.7 000 15 63 | 59.4 . o * 6000 -26.9 342 13 63 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -33.3 333 7 57 ! 58.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@19643 54 3266 16377 20152 0 32 465 19178 19948 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from TPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 90.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 91.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 91.4 F Surface elev Temp: 64.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.1 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 64.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 19297 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 23 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 17589 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 2.6 93 | 16.0 19500 2.1 308 34 92 | 18.2 19000 1.5 92 | 20.3 18500 1.0 91 | 22.4 18000 0.4 90 | 24.6 o 17500 -0.1 90 | 26.7 o 17000 -0.6 89 | 28.8 o 16500 -1.2 89 | 31.0 o* 16000 -2.2 302 34 88 | 32.6 o * 15500 -3.9 302 36 86 | 33.6 o * 15000 -7.2 295 37 83 | 32.9 o * 14500 -11.2 79 | 31.6 o * 14000 -12.0 78 | 33.5 o * 13500 -12.8 77 | 35.4 o * 13000 -13.6 277 33 76 | 37.2 o * 12500 -15.6 74 | 37.9 . o * 12000 -20.2 284 25 70 | 36.0 . o * 11500 -23.2 313 16 67 | 35.7 . o * 11000 -23.9 66 | 37.6 . o * 10500 -24.6 337 12 65 | 39.6 . o * 10000 -25.0 347 11 65 | 41.8 . o * 9500 -25.4 007 12 65 | 44.1 . o * 9000 -25.6 021 13 64 | 46.7 . o * 8500 -25.7 026 15 64 | 49.2 . o * 8000 -25.5 032 16 64 | 52.0 . o * 7500 -25.6 035 17 64 | 54.7 . o * 7000 -25.5 036 17 64 | 57.4 . o * 6500 -25.5 038 18 64 | 60.1 . o * 6000 -25.4 039 17 65 | 62.8 . o * 5500 -25.3 040 15 65 ! 65.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@17589 78 2246 15343 20906 0 37 -1929 19518 20906 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89049 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89049 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html