DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TONOPAH,NV on SUN Mar 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8933,9666 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 8327 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 761 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 4 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 467 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +1276 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 90% PM= 63% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 477 ft LCL= 8259 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1097 ft LCL= 11293 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) MON AM HEIGHTS: 9280,10105 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8790 ftMSL MON PM CHANGE: -698 ft @TI=+4 TUE AM HEIGHTS: 9620,10360 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8997 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTPH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at TPH @ 03/14:12Z for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 8160, 8733 Hcrit= 7443 HgtVar= 517 B/S= 4 W*= 368 MAPS WxC Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 7982, 8622 Hcrit= 7306 HgtVar= 471 B/S= 4 W*= 349 MAPS AVG Tmax=47.5> TI=-4,0@ 8071, 8677 Hcrit= 7381 HgtVar= 494 B/S= 4 W*= 360 ETA NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 9706,10600 Hcrit= 9212 HgtVar=1005 B/S= 5 W*= 567 ETA WxC Tmax= 47 > TI=-4,0@ 9534,10342 Hcrit= 8979 HgtVar=1008 B/S= 5 W*= 543 ETA AVG Tmax=47.5> TI=-4,0@ 9620,10473 Hcrit= 9097 HgtVar=1002 B/S= 5 W*= 555 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 8160, 8733 Hcrit= 7443 HgtVar= 517 B/S= 4 W*= 368 MAPSanl:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 48 > Change@TI=+4: +4022 (+35.9F) MAPS10h:03/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 48 > TI=-4,0@ 9706,10600 Hcrit= 9212 HgtVar=1005 B/S= 5 W*= 567 ETAanal:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 48 > Change@TI=+4: -1469 (-7.5F) ETA12hr:03/15:00Z MONam NWS Tmax= 58 > TI=-4,0@ 9280,10105 Hcrit= 8790 HgtVar=1287 B/S=16 W*= 534 ETA24hr:03/15:12Z MONpm NWS Tmax= 58 > Change@TI=+4: -698 (-3.2F) ETA36hr:03/16:00Z TUEam wxc Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 9620,10360 Hcrit= 8997 HgtVar=1473 B/S=14 W*= 546 ETA48hr:03/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 14-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from TPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 48.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 49.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 49.1 F Surface elev Temp: 31.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 32.3 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 31.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 32.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10269 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 17 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8736 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 15.9 64 |-12.8 o 19500 15.6 64 |-10.5 o 19000 15.2 181 19 63 | -8.2 . o 18500 14.4 179 19 62 | -6.3 . o 18000 13.8 62 | -4.2 * . o 17500 13.1 61 | -2.2 * . o 17000 12.5 175 18 60 | -0.2 * . o 16500 12.0 60 | 2.0 * . o 16000 11.6 60 | 4.2 * . o 15500 11.1 59 | 6.5 * . o 15000 10.7 59 | 8.7 * . o 14500 10.2 58 | 10.9 *. o 14000 9.8 58 | 13.1 *. o 13500 9.4 139 17 57 | 15.4 *. o 13000 8.9 57 | 17.6 .* o 12500 8.5 57 | 19.9 . * o 12000 8.1 56 | 22.1 . * o 11500 7.7 56 | 24.4 . * o 11000 7.3 55 | 26.7 . * o 10500 6.9 55 | 28.9 . * o 10000 6.5 122 18 54 | 31.2 . * o 9500 5.6 127 17 54 | 33.0 . * o 9000 2.4 153 15 50 | 32.5 . * o 8500 -2.1 177 18 46 | 30.6 . o* 8000 -4.9 184 21 43 | 30.5 . o * 7500 -6.7 183 21 41 | 31.4 . o * 7000 -8.2 184 21 40 | 32.6 . o * 6500 -12.2 186 19 36 | 31.2 . o * 6000 -13.3 168 12 35 | 32.7 . o * 5500 -16.2 155 10 32 ! 32.6 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@ 8736 90 477 8259 12453 0 65 -1495 10231 12453 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from TPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 48.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 49.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 49.2 F Surface elev Temp: 34.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 35.5 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 34.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 35.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10286 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12390 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 14.5 63 |-14.2 . o 19500 13.8 62 |-12.3 . o 19000 13.0 118 26 61 |-10.4 . o 18500 12.3 118 26 60 | -8.4 . o 18000 11.7 60 | -6.4 * . o 17500 11.0 59 | -4.3 * . o 17000 10.4 58 | -2.3 * . o 16500 9.8 118 25 58 | -0.2 * . o 16000 8.8 57 | 1.4 .* o 15500 7.7 56 | 3.0 . * o 15000 6.6 103 19 55 | 4.6 . * o 14500 5.5 53 | 6.1 . * o 14000 4.4 52 | 7.7 * o 13500 3.0 095 20 51 | 9.0 * o 13000 1.2 077 19 49 | 9.9 . *o 12500 0.1 48 | 11.5 . o 12000 -0.5 47 | 13.5 . o* 11500 -1.2 47 | 15.5 . o 11000 -1.9 46 | 17.5 . o* 10500 -2.6 067 11 45 | 19.5 . o * 10000 -4.5 063 11 44 | 20.2 . o * 9500 -8.3 059 10 40 | 19.0 . o * 9000 -10.9 37 | 19.2 . o * 8500 -11.1 035 18 37 | 21.6 .o * 8000 -11.9 041 16 36 | 23.5 o * 7500 -12.6 048 15 35 | 25.5 o * 7000 -13.2 052 14 35 | 27.6 .o * 6500 -13.1 052 14 35 | 30.3 .o * 6000 -13.2 052 14 35 | 32.8 . o * 5500 -13.5 052 12 35 ! 35.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@12390 100 3400 8990 11303 0 63 1097 11293 11626 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89049 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89049 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html