DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for TONOPAH,NV on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 9090,10647 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 9111 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1787 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 503 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +326 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 85% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3327 ft LCL= 7662 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2380 ft LCL= 9972 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 8250,10666 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9012 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -672 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 8312,11300 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9535 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KTPH 031130Z 0312/0412 36015KT P6SM SKC ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at TPH @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 9363,11000 Hcrit= 9418 HgtVar=2666 B/S= 4 W*= 527 MAPS WxC Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@10444,12937 Hcrit=11136 HgtVar=3313 B/S= 5 W*= 662 MAPS AVG Tmax=42.5> TI=-4,0@ 9730,11928 Hcrit=10239 HgtVar=3072 B/S= 4 W*= 592 ETA NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 8818,10295 Hcrit= 8804 HgtVar= 909 B/S=10 W*= 480 ETA WxC Tmax= 44 > TI=-4,0@10068,10977 Hcrit= 9484 HgtVar= 927 B/S=11 W*= 565 ETA AVG Tmax=42.5> TI=-4,0@ 9454,10636 Hcrit= 9148 HgtVar= 911 B/S=10 W*= 523 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 9363,11000 Hcrit= 9418 HgtVar=2666 B/S= 4 W*= 527 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: +611 (+1.6F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TPH for Sfc= 5426 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 8818,10295 Hcrit= 8804 HgtVar= 909 B/S=10 W*= 480 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: +42 (+0.2F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 8250,10666 Hcrit= 9012 HgtVar=1271 B/S=14 W*= 463 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: -672 (-2.7F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 43 > TI=-4,0@ 8312,11300 Hcrit= 9535 HgtVar=1342 B/S=11 W*= 491 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from TPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 41.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 42.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 42.1 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9283 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 24 kt Convection overcast height: 9857 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10989 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 11.5 52 |-24.4 o 19500 10.9 52 |-22.3 o 19000 10.3 51 |-20.2 . o 18500 9.8 027 18 51 |-18.1 . o 18000 9.1 029 19 50 |-16.1 * . o 17500 8.5 50 |-14.0 * . o 17000 7.9 49 |-11.9 * .o 16500 7.3 48 | -9.8 * . o 16000 6.7 040 23 48 | -7.8 * .o 15500 6.1 47 | -5.7 * o 15000 5.5 47 | -3.6 * .o 14500 5.0 46 | -1.5 * o 14000 4.4 45 | 0.6 * o 13500 3.8 053 31 45 | 2.7 * o 13000 3.1 44 | 4.6 * o 12500 2.3 43 | 6.6 *o. 12000 1.6 43 | 8.5 *o 11500 0.9 054 32 42 | 10.5 *o 11000 0.0 41 | 12.3 o 10500 -0.9 40 | 14.0 o* 10000 -1.8 052 29 39 | 15.8 o.* 9500 -3.1 051 27 38 | 17.2 o.* 9000 -6.4 053 26 35 | 16.6 o * 8500 -8.1 052 24 33 | 17.5 o * 8000 -8.8 034 23 32 | 19.5 o * 7500 -9.7 030 23 31 | 21.2 o. * 7000 -11.0 026 26 30 | 22.6 o. * 6500 -12.2 019 25 29 | 24.0 o * 6000 -13.3 005 19 28 | 25.7 o * 5500 -14.4 002 14 27 ! 27.2 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@10989 100 3327 7662 7595 0 93 1356 9633 9699 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from TPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 41.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 42.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 42.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 5426 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 5426 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 9253 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 30 kt Convection overcast height: 10483 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 12352 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.5 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 11.1 52 |-24.7 o 19500 10.9 52 |-22.3 o 19000 10.6 52 |-19.9 o 18500 10.4 51 |-17.5 . o 18000 10.1 022 24 51 |-15.1 * . o 17500 9.2 50 |-13.3 * . o 17000 7.9 49 |-11.9 * . o 16500 6.8 031 28 48 |-10.3 * . o 16000 6.0 47 | -8.5 *. o 15500 5.2 46 | -6.6 * . o 15000 4.4 45 | -4.7 *. o 14500 3.6 031 29 45 | -2.8 * o 14000 2.9 44 | -0.9 *o 13500 2.1 43 | 1.0 * o 13000 1.3 035 29 42 | 2.9 *o 12500 0.3 41 | 4.6 .o 12000 -0.8 40 | 6.1 .o* 11500 -1.9 39 | 7.7 .o* 11000 -3.0 38 | 9.2 o * 10500 -4.1 041 28 37 | 10.8 o * 10000 -5.3 039 30 36 | 12.2 o * 9500 -6.6 038 32 34 | 13.6 o * 9000 -8.5 027 39 32 | 14.4 o * 8500 -9.4 023 38 32 | 16.2 o * 8000 -10.0 016 37 31 | 18.3 o * 7500 -10.4 012 35 31 | 20.5 o * 7000 -10.9 006 32 30 | 22.7 o * 6500 -11.5 002 30 29 | 24.7 o. * 6000 -12.4 355 24 29 | 26.6 o * 5500 -13.1 352 19 28 ! 28.5 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 5426 TI=0@12352 100 4384 7968 7803 0 85 2380 9972 10041 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89049 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89049 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html