DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Jean, NV on THU Sep 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8483,13142 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 10835 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2038 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 18 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 755 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1224 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +7 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 54% PM= 52% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1209 ft LCL= 14503 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1909 ft LCL= 16710 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 4968,9166 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7170 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -1095 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 4855,9750 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7574 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KLAS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HND @ 09/02:12Z for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@11666,15714 Hcrit=13300 HgtVar=1536 B/S=13 W*= 985 MAPS WxC Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@16866,18700 Hcrit=16053 HgtVar=2150 B/S=12 W*=1235 MAPS AVG Tmax=98.5> TI=-4,0@15375,17000 Hcrit=14492 HgtVar=1950 B/S=12 W*=1096 ETA NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 5300,10571 Hcrit= 8371 HgtVar=2540 B/S=24 W*= 526 ETA WxC Tmax= 102 > TI=-4,0@12555,14750 Hcrit=12276 HgtVar=1850 B/S=37 W*= 826 ETA AVG Tmax=98.5> TI=-4,0@10000,12833 Hcrit=10511 HgtVar=2167 B/S=31 W*= 694 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@11666,15714 Hcrit=13300 HgtVar=1536 B/S=13 W*= 985 MAPSanl:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -2105 (-4.4F) MAPS10h:09/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 5300,10571 Hcrit= 8371 HgtVar=2540 B/S=24 W*= 526 ETAanal:09/02:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since100.2 > 95.0 pm NWS Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: -344 (-1.1F) ETA12hr:09/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 97 > TI=-4,0@ 4968, 9166 Hcrit= 7170 HgtVar=6209 B/S=28 W*= 464 ETA24hr:09/03:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since102.0 > 97.0 FRIpm NWS Tmax= 97 > Change@TI=+4: -1095 (-2.5F) ETA36hr:09/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 98 > TI=-4,0@ 4855, 9750 Hcrit= 7574 HgtVar=6937 B/S=17 W*= 465 ETA48hr:09/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from HND MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 95.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 96.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 96.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18395 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 15712 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 9.4 104 | 14.6 19500 8.5 104 | 16.4 o 19000 7.6 297 39 103 | 18.1 o 18500 6.6 296 37 102 | 19.8 o 18000 5.6 101 | 21.4 * o 17500 4.5 100 | 23.1 * o 17000 3.5 292 34 98 | 24.7 * o 16500 1.9 97 | 25.8 *o 16000 0.4 288 30 95 | 27.0 *o 15500 -0.3 95 | 28.9 o 15000 -1.0 94 | 30.9 o 14500 -1.8 93 | 32.8 o* 14000 -2.5 291 22 92 | 34.7 . o* 13500 -2.9 92 | 37.0 . o * 13000 -3.2 92 | 39.4 . o * 12500 -3.5 92 | 41.8 . o * 12000 -3.8 91 | 44.2 . o * 11500 -4.1 273 13 91 | 46.5 . o * 11000 -4.3 289 15 91 | 49.0 . o * 10500 -4.8 300 15 90 | 51.1 . o * 10000 -5.4 304 16 90 | 53.3 . o * 9500 -6.2 313 16 89 | 55.1 . o * 9000 -6.9 321 17 88 | 57.0 . o * 8500 -8.3 330 17 87 | 58.4 . o * 8000 -10.8 339 17 84 | 58.5 . o * 7500 -14.0 002 17 81 | 58.0 . o * 7000 -16.5 009 17 78 | 58.1 . o * 6500 -18.0 000 15 77 | 59.4 . o * 6000 -18.1 342 13 77 | 61.9 . o * 5500 -20.9 333 7 74 | 61.7 . o * 5000 -24.7 70 | 60.6 . o * 4500 -28.5 66 | 59.5 . o * 4000 -32.3 63 | 58.4 . o * 3500 -36.1 59 | 57.3 . o * 3000 -39.9 082 6 55 ! 56.1 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@15712 54 1209 14503 18054 0 45 -527 16239 18054 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from HND MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 95.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 96.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 96.4 F Surface elev Temp: 64.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.1 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 64.8 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 20188 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 18 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 14801 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 11.4 106 | 16.0 o 19500 10.9 308 34 106 | 18.2 o 19000 10.3 105 | 20.3 o 18500 9.8 105 | 22.4 o 18000 9.2 104 | 24.6 * o 17500 8.7 104 | 26.7 * o 17000 8.2 103 | 28.8 * o 16500 7.6 103 | 31.0 * o 16000 6.6 302 34 102 | 32.6 * o 15500 4.9 302 36 100 | 33.6 * o 15000 1.6 295 37 97 | 32.9 *o 14500 -2.4 93 | 31.6 o * 14000 -3.2 92 | 33.5 o * 13500 -4.0 91 | 35.4 o * 13000 -4.8 277 33 90 | 37.2 . o * 12500 -6.8 88 | 37.9 . o * 12000 -11.4 284 25 84 | 36.0 . o * 11500 -14.4 313 16 81 | 35.7 . o * 11000 -15.1 80 | 37.6 . o * 10500 -15.8 337 12 79 | 39.6 . o * 10000 -16.2 347 11 79 | 41.8 . o * 9500 -16.6 007 12 78 | 44.1 . o * 9000 -16.8 021 13 78 | 46.7 . o * 8500 -16.9 026 15 78 | 49.2 . o * 8000 -16.7 032 16 78 | 52.0 . o * 7500 -16.8 035 17 78 | 54.7 . o * 7000 -16.8 036 17 78 | 57.4 . o * 6500 -16.7 038 18 78 | 60.1 . o * 6000 -16.6 039 17 78 | 62.8 . o * 5500 -17.1 040 15 78 | 65.0 . o * 5000 -19.6 75 | 65.2 . o * 4500 -22.1 73 | 65.4 . o * 4000 -24.5 70 | 65.6 . o * 3500 -27.0 68 | 65.8 . o * 3000 -29.5 040 11 66 ! 66.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@14801 78 1365 13436 19670 0 52 -1909 16710 19670 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89019 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89019 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html