DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Jean, NV on SUN Mar 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 8222,9177 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7617 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 805 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 637 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +1965 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +5 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 90% PM= 68% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 267 ft LCL= 8259 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 185 ft LCL= 10876 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) MON AM HEIGHTS: 6766,8066 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6536 ftMSL MON PM CHANGE: -573 ft @TI=+4 TUE AM HEIGHTS: 7500,9600 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7752 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KLAS ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HND @ 03/14:12Z for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 7722, 8522 Hcrit= 7088 HgtVar= 444 B/S= 9 W*= 617 MAPS WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@ 8633, 9109 Hcrit= 7674 HgtVar=1641 B/S=11 W*= 710 MAPS AVG Tmax=62.5> TI=-4,0@ 8267, 8800 Hcrit= 7372 HgtVar= 543 B/S=10 W*= 664 ETA NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 8722, 9833 Hcrit= 8147 HgtVar=1167 B/S= 6 W*= 658 ETA WxC Tmax= 65 > TI=-4,0@10117,11294 Hcrit= 9509 HgtVar=1398 B/S= 7 W*= 805 ETA AVG Tmax=62.5> TI=-4,0@ 9416,10558 Hcrit= 8825 HgtVar=1192 B/S= 7 W*= 731 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 7722, 8522 Hcrit= 7088 HgtVar= 444 B/S= 9 W*= 617 MAPSanl:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: +5254 (+39.4F) MAPS10h:03/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HND for Sfc= 2832 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 8722, 9833 Hcrit= 8147 HgtVar=1167 B/S= 6 W*= 658 ETAanal:03/14:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 61.7 > 60.0 pm NWS Tmax= 60 > Change@TI=+4: -1323 (-5.5F) ETA12hr:03/15:00Z MONam NWS Tmax= 64 > TI=-4,0@ 6766, 8066 Hcrit= 6536 HgtVar=1434 B/S= 7 W*= 508 ETA24hr:03/15:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 67.5 > 64.0 MONpm NWS Tmax= 64 > Change@TI=+4: -573 (-2.2F) ETA36hr:03/16:00Z TUEam wxc Tmax= 70 > TI=-4,0@ 7500, 9600 Hcrit= 7752 HgtVar=1140 B/S=14 W*= 554 ETA48hr:03/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 14-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from HND MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 60.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 61.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 61.1 F Surface elev Temp: 31.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 32.3 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 31.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 32.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13215 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8526 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 17.8 78 |-12.8 o 19500 17.5 77 |-10.5 . o 19000 17.1 181 19 77 | -8.2 . o 18500 16.3 179 19 76 | -6.3 . o 18000 15.7 76 | -4.2 * . o 17500 15.0 75 | -2.2 * . o 17000 14.4 175 18 74 | -0.2 * . o 16500 13.9 74 | 2.0 * . o 16000 13.5 73 | 4.2 * . o 15500 13.0 73 | 6.5 * . o 15000 12.6 73 | 8.7 * . o 14500 12.1 72 | 10.9 * . o 14000 11.7 72 | 13.1 * . o 13500 11.2 139 17 71 | 15.4 *. o 13000 10.8 71 | 17.6 *. o 12500 10.4 70 | 19.9 .* o 12000 10.0 70 | 22.1 .* o 11500 9.6 70 | 24.4 . * o 11000 9.2 69 | 26.7 . * o 10500 8.8 69 | 28.9 . * o 10000 8.4 122 18 68 | 31.2 . * o 9500 7.5 127 17 67 | 33.0 . * o 9000 4.3 153 15 64 | 32.5 . * o 8500 -0.2 177 18 60 | 30.6 . o 8000 -3.0 184 21 57 | 30.5 . o * 7500 -4.8 183 21 55 | 31.4 . o * 7000 -6.3 184 21 54 | 32.6 . o * 6500 -10.3 186 19 50 | 31.2 . o * 6000 -11.5 168 12 49 | 32.7 . o * 5500 -14.0 155 10 46 | 32.9 . o * 5000 -16.8 43 | 32.8 . o * 4500 -19.5 40 | 32.7 . o * 4000 -22.3 38 | 32.6 . o * 3500 -25.1 35 | 32.5 . o * 3000 -27.9 154 5 32 ! 32.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@ 8526 90 267 8259 12453 0 70 -1296 9822 12453 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from HND MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 60.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 61.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 61.2 F Surface elev Temp: 34.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 35.5 F Surface elevation: 2832 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2832 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 34.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 35.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12810 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 12 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11061 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.8 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 20000 16.3 76 |-14.2 . o 19500 15.6 76 |-12.3 . o 19000 14.8 118 26 75 |-10.4 . o 18500 14.1 118 26 74 | -8.4 . o 18000 13.5 73 | -6.4 * . o 17500 12.9 73 | -4.3 * . o 17000 12.2 72 | -2.3 * . o 16500 11.6 118 25 72 | -0.2 * . o 16000 10.6 71 | 1.4 *. o 15500 9.5 69 | 3.0 . * o 15000 8.4 103 19 68 | 4.6 . * o 14500 7.3 67 | 6.1 . * o 14000 6.2 66 | 7.7 . * o 13500 4.8 095 20 65 | 9.0 . * o 13000 3.0 077 19 63 | 9.9 . * o 12500 2.0 62 | 11.5 . *o 12000 1.3 61 | 13.5 . *o 11500 0.6 61 | 15.5 . o 11000 -0.1 60 | 17.5 . o 10500 -0.8 067 11 59 | 19.5 . o 10000 -2.7 063 11 57 | 20.2 . o* 9500 -6.5 059 10 53 | 19.0 . o * 9000 -9.1 51 | 19.2 . o * 8500 -9.3 035 18 51 | 21.6 .o * 8000 -10.1 041 16 50 | 23.5 o * 7500 -10.8 048 15 49 | 25.5 o * 7000 -11.4 052 14 49 | 27.6 .o * 6500 -11.3 052 14 49 | 30.3 .o * 6000 -11.4 052 14 49 | 32.8 . o * 5500 -12.0 052 12 48 | 35.0 . o * 5000 -14.6 45 | 35.1 . o * 4500 -17.1 43 | 35.2 . o * 4000 -19.7 40 | 35.3 . o * 3500 -22.3 38 | 35.4 . o * 3000 -24.9 051 9 35 ! 35.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 2832 TI=0@11061 100 2071 8990 11303 0 68 185 10876 11238 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=89019 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/89019 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html