DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HUTCHINSON,KS on SUN Mar 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3746,4418 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3101 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 694 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 8 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 326 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -48 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : -1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1668 ft LCL= 6856 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2359 ft LCL= 7105 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) MON AM HEIGHTS: 3560,4346 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3078 ftMSL MON PM CHANGE: +29 ft @TI=+4 TUE AM HEIGHTS: 5833,7636 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5917 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KHUT ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HUT @ 03/14:12Z for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 4462, 5185 Hcrit= 3910 HgtVar= 775 B/S=15 W*= 407 MAPS WxC Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 4277, 5000 Hcrit= 3731 HgtVar= 760 B/S=14 W*= 387 MAPS AVG Tmax=50.5> TI=-4,0@ 4370, 5092 Hcrit= 3820 HgtVar= 768 B/S=14 W*= 397 ETA NWS Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 3031, 3651 Hcrit= 2292 HgtVar= 614 B/S= 2 W*= 245 ETA WxC Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 2870, 3500 Hcrit= 1960 HgtVar= 609 B/S= 2 W*= 227 ETA AVG Tmax=50.5> TI=-4,0@ 2951, 3575 Hcrit= 2157 HgtVar= 612 B/S= 2 W*= 236 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 4462, 5185 Hcrit= 3910 HgtVar= 775 B/S=15 W*= 407 MAPSanl:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 51 > Change@TI=+4: -313 (-2.1F) MAPS9h:03/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 3031, 3651 Hcrit= 2292 HgtVar= 614 B/S= 2 W*= 245 ETAanal:03/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 51 > Change@TI=+4: +216 (+2.0F) ETA12hr:03/15:00Z MONam NWS Tmax= 53 > TI=-4,0@ 3560, 4346 Hcrit= 3078 HgtVar= 794 B/S= 4 W*= 316 ETA24hr:03/15:12Z MONpm NWS Tmax= 53 > Change@TI=+4: +29 (+0.2F) ETA36hr:03/16:00Z TUEam wxc Tmax= 60 > TI=-4,0@ 5833, 7636 Hcrit= 5917 HgtVar=1564 B/S= 7 W*= 527 ETA48hr:03/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 14-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from HUT MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 51.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 52.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 52.1 F Surface elev Temp: 31.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 32.3 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 31.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 32.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11222 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5188 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 28.3 79 | 8.7 * . o 14500 27.8 79 | 10.9 * . o 14000 27.4 78 | 13.1 * . o 13500 26.9 139 17 78 | 15.4 * . o 13000 26.5 78 | 17.6 * . o 12500 26.1 77 | 19.9 * . o 12000 25.7 77 | 22.1 * . o 11500 25.3 76 | 24.4 * . o 11000 24.9 76 | 26.7 * . o 10500 24.5 75 | 28.9 * . o 10000 24.1 122 18 75 | 31.2 * . o 9500 23.2 127 17 74 | 33.0 * . o 9000 20.0 153 15 71 | 32.5 *. o 8500 15.5 177 18 66 | 30.6 * . o 8000 12.7 184 21 64 | 30.5 * . o 7500 10.9 183 21 62 | 31.4 * . o 7000 9.4 184 21 60 | 32.6 * . o 6500 5.4 186 19 56 | 31.2 * . o 6000 4.2 168 12 55 | 32.7 * o 5500 1.7 155 10 53 | 32.9 . *o 5000 -1.0 50 | 32.8 . o 4500 -3.8 47 | 32.7 . o * 4000 -6.5 44 | 32.7 . o * 3500 -9.3 42 | 32.6 . o * 3000 -12.0 39 | 32.5 . o * 2500 -14.7 36 | 32.5 . o * 2000 -17.5 34 ! 32.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 5188 -1 -1668 6856 12635 0 -1 -1668 6856 12635 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from HUT MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 51.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 52.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 52.2 F Surface elev Temp: 34.7 F Surface elev VirtT: 35.9 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 34.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 35.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10767 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 4746 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 23.8 123 23 75 | 4.3 * . o 14500 22.6 74 | 5.8 * . o 14000 21.4 112 20 72 | 7.2 * . o 13500 20.3 71 | 8.9 * . o 13000 19.3 70 | 10.5 * . o 12500 18.3 081 17 69 | 12.2 . * o 12000 17.6 69 | 14.2 . * o 11500 17.0 68 | 16.2 . * o 11000 16.4 67 | 18.3 . * o 10500 15.8 67 | 20.4 . * o 10000 15.2 072 9 66 | 22.4 . * o 9500 13.4 64 | 23.3 . * o 9000 9.3 063 7 60 | 21.8 . * o 8500 6.4 033 18 57 | 21.6 * . o 8000 5.4 037 18 56 | 23.3 * o 7500 5.1 043 16 56 | 25.7 * o 7000 4.7 050 15 56 | 27.9 * .o 6500 4.7 051 14 56 | 30.6 *. o 6000 4.6 051 14 56 | 33.2 * o 5500 3.9 052 12 55 | 35.2 . * o 5000 1.3 52 | 35.2 . *o 4500 -1.3 50 | 35.3 . o* 4000 -3.9 47 | 35.4 . o * 3500 -6.4 45 | 35.5 . o * 3000 -9.0 42 | 35.6 . o * 2500 -11.6 39 | 35.7 . o * 2000 -14.2 37 ! 35.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 4746 -1 -2359 7105 7067 0 -1 -2359 7105 7067 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=67502 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/67502 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html