DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HUTCHINSON,KS on THU Sep 2 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3871,4499 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 3006 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1215 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 11 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 335 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +2442 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 54% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4490 ft LCL= 10197 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -8645 ft LCL= 13668 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 5735,6911 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5207 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: -125 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 3833,6500 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4714 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KHUT ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HUT @ 09/02:12Z for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 5085, 5703 Hcrit= 4430 HgtVar=1450 B/S=21 W*= 475 MAPS WxC Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 5085, 5703 Hcrit= 4430 HgtVar=1450 B/S=21 W*= 475 MAPS AVG Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 5085, 5703 Hcrit= 4430 HgtVar=1450 B/S=21 W*= 475 ETA NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 2657, 3296 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 981 B/S= 2 W*= 195 ETA WxC Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 2657, 3296 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 981 B/S= 2 W*= 195 ETA AVG Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 2657, 3296 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 981 B/S= 2 W*= 195 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 5085, 5703 Hcrit= 4430 HgtVar=1450 B/S=21 W*= 475 MAPSanl:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: +2358 (+10.6F) MAPS9h:09/03:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 82 > TI=-4,0@ 2657, 3296 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 981 B/S= 2 W*= 195 ETAanal:09/02:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 82 > Change@TI=+4: +2526 (+19.8F) ETA12hr:09/03:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 79 > TI=-4,0@ 5735, 6911 Hcrit= 5207 HgtVar=1389 B/S= 4 W*= 456 ETA24hr:09/03:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 79 > Change@TI=+4: -125 (-0.5F) ETA36hr:09/04:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 81 > TI=-4,0@ 3833, 6500 Hcrit= 4714 HgtVar=2571 B/S= 4 W*= 396 ETA48hr:09/04:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 2-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from HUT MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 83.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 83.9 F Surface elev Temp: 54.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.8 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 54.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15488 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 4 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5707 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 18.7 101 | 30.9 * o 14500 17.9 100 | 32.8 * o 14000 17.2 291 22 99 | 34.7 * o 13500 16.8 99 | 37.0 .* o 13000 16.5 99 | 39.4 .* o 12500 16.2 98 | 41.8 . * o 12000 15.9 98 | 44.2 . * o 11500 15.7 273 13 98 | 46.5 . * o 11000 15.4 289 15 97 | 49.0 . * o 10500 14.9 300 15 97 | 51.1 . * o 10000 14.4 304 16 96 | 53.3 . * o 9500 13.6 313 16 96 | 55.1 . * o 9000 12.8 321 17 95 | 57.0 . * o 8500 11.5 330 17 93 | 58.4 . * o 8000 9.0 339 17 91 | 58.5 . * o 7500 5.8 002 17 88 | 58.0 . * o 7000 3.2 009 17 85 | 58.1 . * o 6500 1.8 000 15 84 | 59.4 . *o 6000 1.6 342 13 84 | 61.9 . *o 5500 -1.1 333 7 81 | 61.8 . o* 5000 -4.6 77 | 61.1 . o * 4500 -8.0 74 | 60.3 . o * 4000 -11.5 71 | 59.5 . o * 3500 -14.9 67 | 58.7 . o * 3000 -18.4 64 | 58.0 . o * 2500 -21.8 60 | 57.2 . o * 2000 -25.2 57 ! 56.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 5707 54 -4490 10197 15526 0 42 -5245 10952 15526 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 3-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from HUT MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 82.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 83.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 83.3 F Surface elev Temp: 64.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 65.8 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 64.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 65.8 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17456 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5023 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 21.5 292 39 104 | 33.2 * o 14500 17.6 100 | 31.9 * o 14000 16.8 99 | 33.8 * o 13500 16.0 98 | 35.6 * o 13000 15.2 282 33 97 | 37.5 . * o 12500 13.3 95 | 38.3 * o 12000 9.6 288 25 92 | 37.2 *. o 11500 5.0 315 18 87 | 35.3 . * o 11000 4.3 86 | 37.2 . * o 10500 3.5 344 12 85 | 39.1 . * o 10000 3.1 354 12 85 | 41.4 . * o 9500 2.7 012 12 85 | 43.7 . * o 9000 2.7 022 13 85 | 46.4 . * o 8500 2.7 027 14 85 | 49.0 . * o 8000 2.8 032 16 85 | 51.8 . * o 7500 2.7 035 16 85 | 54.4 . * o 7000 2.8 036 17 85 | 57.1 . *o 6500 2.8 037 17 85 | 59.8 . * o 6000 2.9 038 16 85 | 62.6 . * o 5500 2.4 039 14 84 | 64.8 . *o 5000 -0.1 82 | 64.9 . o 4500 -2.7 79 | 65.1 . o * 4000 -5.2 77 | 65.2 . o * 3500 -7.7 74 | 65.3 . o * 3000 -10.3 72 | 65.5 . o * 2500 -12.8 69 | 65.6 . o * 2000 -15.3 67 ! 65.7 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 5023 -1 -8645 13668 20668 0 -1 -8645 13668 20668 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=67502 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/67502 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html