DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for HUTCHINSON,KS on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 100% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 681 ft LCL= 6133 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 385 ft LCL= 6198 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 5035,6400 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4893 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KHUT 031727Z 0318/0418 13010KT 6SM -RA BKN005 OVC050 TEMPO 0318/0322 08012KT 2SM -RA BR OVC004CB FM032200 04014KT 4SM -RA BR VCTS OVC005CB FM040300 35014KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC010 FM040600 30019G25KT 5SM -RA BR OVC010 FM041200 30020G29KT 5SM -RASN OVC013 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at HUT @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 5326, 6807 Hcrit= 5394 HgtVar=1869 B/S= 8 W*= 561 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 1860, 2603 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 690 B/S= 3 W*= 119 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 5326, 6807 Hcrit= 5394 HgtVar=1869 B/S= 8 W*= 561 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: +393 (+1.3F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at HUT for Sfc= 1582 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 50 > TI=-4,0@ 1860, 2603 Hcrit= 1582 HgtVar= 690 B/S= 3 W*= 119 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 50 > Change@TI=+4: +28 (+2.0F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 41 > TI=-4,0@ 3312, 4239 Hcrit= 2742 HgtVar= 861 B/S= 2 W*= 269 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm WxC Tmax= 41 > Change@TI=+4: +1057 (+7.3F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam WxC Tmax= 46 > TI=-4,0@ 5035, 6400 Hcrit= 4893 HgtVar= 850 B/S= 3 W*= 468 ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from HUT MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 50.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 51.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 51.1 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10905 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: 6223 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6814 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 17.0 67 | -3.6 * o 14500 16.4 66 | -1.5 * .o 14000 15.8 66 | 0.6 * o 13500 15.2 053 31 65 | 2.7 * o 13000 14.5 65 | 4.6 * o. 12500 13.8 64 | 6.6 * o 12000 13.1 63 | 8.5 * o 11500 12.3 054 32 62 | 10.5 * o 11000 11.5 61 | 12.3 * o. 10500 10.5 61 | 14.0 * o. 10000 9.6 052 29 60 | 15.8 * o 9500 8.4 051 27 58 | 17.2 * o. 9000 5.1 053 26 55 | 16.6 * o 8500 3.4 052 24 53 | 17.5 * o 8000 2.7 034 23 53 | 19.5 * o 7500 1.7 030 23 52 | 21.2 *o 7000 0.5 026 26 50 | 22.6 o. 6500 -0.8 019 25 49 | 24.0 o 6000 -1.8 005 19 48 | 25.7 o* 5500 -3.1 002 14 47 | 27.1 o * 5000 -5.7 44 | 27.2 o * 4500 -8.4 42 | 27.2 o * 4000 -11.0 39 | 27.2 o * 3500 -13.6 36 | 27.2 o * 3000 -16.3 34 | 27.2 o * 2500 -18.9 31 | 27.3 o * 2000 -21.6 28 ! 27.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 6814 100 681 6133 6148 0 99 379 6435 6444 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from HUT MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 50.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 51.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 51.1 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 1582 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1582 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10825 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 16 kt Convection overcast height: 6100 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6583 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 15.9 66 | -4.7 * . o 14500 15.1 031 29 65 | -2.8 * . o 14000 14.3 64 | -0.9 * . o 13500 13.5 64 | 1.0 * .o 13000 12.7 035 29 63 | 2.9 * .o 12500 11.8 62 | 4.6 * .o 12000 10.7 61 | 6.1 * .o 11500 9.5 60 | 7.7 * o 11000 8.4 58 | 9.2 * o 10500 7.3 041 28 57 | 10.8 * o 10000 6.1 039 30 56 | 12.2 * o 9500 4.8 038 32 55 | 13.6 * o 9000 2.9 027 39 53 | 14.4 * o 8500 2.0 023 38 52 | 16.2 * o 8000 1.4 016 37 51 | 18.3 *o 7500 1.0 012 35 51 | 20.5 *o 7000 0.5 006 32 51 | 22.7 o 6500 -0.1 002 30 50 | 24.7 o 6000 -0.9 355 24 49 | 26.6 o* 5500 -1.8 352 19 48 | 28.4 .o* 5000 -4.4 46 | 28.4 .o * 4500 -7.1 43 | 28.5 .o * 4000 -9.7 40 | 28.5 .o * 3500 -12.4 38 | 28.5 .o * 3000 -15.0 35 | 28.5 .o * 2500 -17.7 32 | 28.5 .o * 2000 -20.3 30 ! 28.6 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1582 TI=0@ 6583 100 546 6037 6034 0 100 385 6198 6205 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=67502 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/67502 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html