DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Houston, TX on TUE Mar 9 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 70% PM= 81% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -175 ft LCL= 10715 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1371 ft LCL= 12672 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 1250,2250 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 671 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSGR ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at SGR @ 03/09:12Z for Sfc= 127 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 6339,10500 Hcrit= 8468 HgtVar=2843 B/S= 9 W*= 911 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 2382, 3678 Hcrit= 2126 HgtVar=1634 B/S= 3 W*= 330 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 6339,10500 Hcrit= 8468 HgtVar=2843 B/S= 9 W*= 911 MAPSanl:03/09:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 75 > Change@TI=+4: +571 (+1.1F) MAPS10h:03/10:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 2382, 3678 Hcrit= 2126 HgtVar=1634 B/S= 3 W*= 330 ETAanal:03/09:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 75 > Change@TI=+4: +117 (+0.5F) ETA12hr:03/10:00Z WEDam WxC Tmax= 71 > TI=-4,0@ 1060, 1789 Hcrit= 127 HgtVar=1179 B/S= 3 W*= 187 ETA24hr:03/10:12Z WEDpm WxC Tmax= 71 > Change@TI=+4: +228 (+1.7F) ETA36hr:03/11:00Z THUam WxC Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 1250, 2250 Hcrit= 671 HgtVar=3500 B/S= 4 W*= 232 ETA48hr:03/11:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 9-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from SGR MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 75.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 76.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 76.1 F Surface elev Temp: 37.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 38.2 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 37.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 38.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16892 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 19 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10540 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 13.8 89 | 5.1 15500 12.9 88 | 6.8 15000 11.5 354 29 86 | 8.1 14500 9.3 349 29 84 | 8.6 14000 6.6 343 30 82 | 8.6 13500 4.5 80 | 9.2 13000 2.9 338 32 78 | 10.2 12500 2.3 77 | 12.3 12000 1.7 77 | 14.4 11500 1.1 76 | 16.4 11000 0.5 76 | 18.5 10500 -0.0 343 36 75 | 20.6 10000 -0.4 75 | 22.9 o 9500 -0.7 344 36 74 | 25.3 o 9000 -0.9 346 37 74 | 27.8 o 8500 -1.3 346 37 74 | 30.1 o* 8000 -1.7 346 36 73 | 32.3 o* 7500 -2.1 346 35 73 | 34.6 o* 7000 -2.2 348 34 73 | 37.1 o * 6500 -3.1 350 34 72 | 38.9 . o * 6000 -5.9 337 22 69 | 38.8 . o * 5500 -8.8 320 14 66 | 38.6 . o * 5000 -11.5 64 | 38.6 . o * 4500 -14.2 61 | 38.5 . o * 4000 -16.9 58 | 38.5 . o * 3500 -19.6 55 | 38.5 . o * 3000 -22.3 53 | 38.4 . o * 2500 -25.0 50 | 38.4 . o * 2000 -27.7 47 | 38.4 . o * 1500 -30.4 45 | 38.3 . o * 1000 -33.1 42 | 38.3 . o * 500 -35.8 39 ! 38.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@10540 70 -175 10715 11693 0 71 -617 11157 11645 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 10-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from SGR MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 75.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 75.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 75.8 F Surface elev Temp: 43.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 44.6 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 43.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 44.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 18596 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 14 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11301 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 6.3 261 25 81 | -2.7 15500 5.5 80 | -0.9 15000 5.0 80 | 1.4 14500 4.6 80 | 3.6 14000 4.1 79 | 5.8 13500 3.7 79 | 8.0 13000 3.2 78 | 10.2 12500 2.8 283 16 78 | 12.5 12000 1.6 77 | 13.9 11500 0.4 75 | 15.4 11000 -0.6 341 14 74 | 17.1 10500 -0.9 74 | 19.4 10000 -1.3 74 | 21.7 o* 9500 -1.7 008 18 73 | 24.0 o * 9000 -2.0 019 19 73 | 26.4 o * 8500 -2.1 020 19 73 | 28.9 o* 8000 -2.0 024 20 73 | 31.7 o * 7500 -2.2 026 20 73 | 34.2 o * 7000 -2.2 029 20 73 | 36.9 o * 6500 -2.2 030 20 73 | 39.6 o* 6000 -2.3 033 18 73 | 42.2 o * 5500 -2.8 035 15 72 | 44.3 o * 5000 -5.5 70 | 44.3 o * 4500 -8.1 67 | 44.3 o * 4000 -10.7 64 | 44.4 o * 3500 -13.4 62 | 44.4 o * 3000 -16.0 59 | 44.4 o * 2500 -18.6 56 | 44.5 o * 2000 -21.3 54 | 44.5 o * 1500 -23.9 51 | 44.5 o * 1000 -26.6 48 | 44.6 o * 500 -29.2 46 ! 44.6 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@11301 82 -1026 12327 13849 0 81 -1371 12672 13849 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77474 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/77474 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html