DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Houston, TX on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 100% PM= 85% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 6075 ft LCL= 9170 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 3815 ft LCL= 12075 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 71 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF AMD KSGR 031511Z 0315/0412 15007KT P6SM VCSH SCT010 BKN014 OVC023 FM031700 15012KT P6SM VCTS SCT015 BKN025CB FM040200 13009KT P6SM BKN008 OVC015 FM040800 15005KT 2SM BR VCSH OVC004 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at SGR @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 127 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@12142,15250 Hcrit=12830 HgtVar=3333 B/S=11 W*=1350 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 1000, 2875 Hcrit= 710 HgtVar=2025 B/S= 2 W*= 228 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@12142,15250 Hcrit=12830 HgtVar=3333 B/S=11 W*=1350 MAPSanl:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 75 > Change@TI=+4: -575 (-0.9F) MAPS10h:02/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 75 > TI=-4,0@ 1000, 2875 Hcrit= 710 HgtVar=2025 B/S= 2 W*= 228 ETAanal:02/03:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 75 > Change@TI=+4: -140 (-0.9F) ETA12hr:02/04:00Z SATam WxC Tmax= 67 > TI=-4,0@ -, 272 Hcrit= 127 HgtVar=1017 B/S=99 W*= 0 ETA24hr:02/04:12Z SATpm WxC Tmax= 67 > Change@TI=+4: -1258 (+110.0F) ETA36hr:02/05:00Z SUNam WxC Tmax= 52 > TI=-4,0@ -, - Hcrit= HgtVar= B/S=99 W*= - ETA48hr:02/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 3-Feb-2012 12 UTC TI report from SGR MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 75.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 76.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 76.2 F Surface elev Temp: 26.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 27.3 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 26.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 27.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16458 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 11 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 22 kt Convection overcast height: 11280 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 15245 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.3 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 0.9 040 23 76 | -7.8 15500 0.3 75 | -5.7 15000 -0.3 75 | -3.6 14500 -0.9 74 | -1.5 14000 -1.5 74 | 0.6 13500 -2.1 053 31 73 | 2.7 13000 -2.8 72 | 4.6 12500 -3.5 71 | 6.6 12000 -4.2 71 | 8.5 11500 -5.0 054 32 70 | 10.5 11000 -5.8 69 | 12.3 * 10500 -6.7 68 | 14.0 * 10000 -7.7 052 29 67 | 15.8 o * 9500 -8.9 051 27 66 | 17.2 o * 9000 -12.2 053 26 63 | 16.6 o * 8500 -13.9 052 24 61 | 17.5 o * 8000 -14.6 034 23 60 | 19.5 o * 7500 -15.5 030 23 59 | 21.2 o * 7000 -16.8 026 26 58 | 22.6 o. * 6500 -18.1 019 25 57 | 24.0 o * 6000 -19.1 005 19 56 | 25.7 o * 5500 -20.3 002 14 55 | 27.1 o * 5000 -23.0 52 | 27.1 o * 4500 -25.6 49 | 27.2 o * 4000 -28.3 47 | 27.2 o * 3500 -31.0 44 | 27.2 o * 3000 -33.6 41 | 27.2 o * 2500 -36.3 39 | 27.2 o * 2000 -38.9 36 | 27.2 o * 1500 -41.6 33 | 27.3 o * 1000 -44.2 31 | 27.3 o * 500 -46.9 28 ! 27.3 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@15245 100 6075 9170 9942 0 95 3829 11416 11622 133 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Feb-2012 00 UTC TI report from SGR MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 75.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 76.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 76.2 F Surface elev Temp: 27.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 28.6 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 27.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 28.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 16378 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 24 kt Convection overcast height: 11715 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 15890 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.4 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 0.2 75 | -8.5 15500 -0.6 74 | -6.6 15000 -1.4 74 | -4.7 14500 -2.2 031 29 73 | -2.8 14000 -3.0 72 | -0.9 13500 -3.8 71 | 1.0 13000 -4.5 035 29 70 | 2.9 12500 -5.5 69 | 4.6 12000 -6.6 68 | 6.1 * 11500 -7.7 67 | 7.7 * 11000 -8.8 66 | 9.2 * 10500 -10.0 041 28 65 | 10.8 * 10000 -11.2 039 30 64 | 12.2 o * 9500 -12.5 038 32 63 | 13.6 o. * 9000 -14.4 027 39 61 | 14.4 o * 8500 -15.3 023 38 60 | 16.2 o. * 8000 -15.8 016 37 59 | 18.3 o * 7500 -16.3 012 35 59 | 20.5 o. * 7000 -16.7 006 32 58 | 22.7 o * 6500 -17.4 002 30 58 | 24.7 o. * 6000 -18.2 355 24 57 | 26.6 o * 5500 -19.1 352 19 56 | 28.4 .o * 5000 -21.7 53 | 28.4 .o * 4500 -24.4 51 | 28.4 .o * 4000 -27.0 48 | 28.5 .o * 3500 -29.7 45 | 28.5 .o * 3000 -32.3 43 | 28.5 .o * 2500 -35.0 40 | 28.5 .o * 2000 -37.7 37 | 28.5 .o * 1500 -40.3 35 | 28.5 .o * 1000 -43.0 32 | 28.6 .o * 500 -45.6 29 ! 28.6 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@15890 100 6153 9737 9713 0 85 3815 12075 12321 71 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77474 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/77474 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html