DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Houston, TX on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2694 ft LCL= 8755 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -12613 ft LCL= 15042 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 3954,5772 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3921 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KSGR ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at SGR @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 127 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. MAPS WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 5753, 6055 Hcrit= 4688 HgtVar=1254 B/S=25 W*= 701 NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. ETA WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3954, 5708 Hcrit= 3829 HgtVar=1746 B/S=11 W*= 430 NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 5753, 6055 Hcrit= 4688 HgtVar=1254 B/S=25 W*= 701 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: -2337 (-12.6F) MAPS10h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at SGR for Sfc= 127 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3954, 5708 Hcrit= 3829 HgtVar=1746 B/S=11 W*= 430 ETAanal:09/01:12Z pm WxC Tmax= 91 > Change@TI=+4: +304 (+1.0F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam WxC Tmax= 95 > TI=-4,0@ 7333, 8300 Hcrit= 6169 HgtVar=1430 B/S=12 W*= 589 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm WxC Tmax= 95 > Change@TI=+4: +26 (+0.1F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam WxC Tmax= 91 > TI=-4,0@ 3954, 5772 Hcrit= 3921 HgtVar=1864 B/S=13 W*= 443 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+WxCtmax *************** 1-Sep-2010 12 UTC TI report from SGR MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 93.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 93.5 F Surface elev Temp: 53.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 55.4 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 53.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 55.4 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15911 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 6061 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 20.3 111 | 29.0 15500 19.4 110 | 30.8 15000 18.6 110 | 32.6 14500 17.7 248 21 109 | 34.4 14000 16.9 108 | 36.3 13500 16.1 107 | 38.1 13000 15.3 106 | 40.0 12500 14.3 251 16 105 | 41.7 o 12000 13.2 104 | 43.3 o 11500 12.3 255 15 103 | 45.0 o 11000 12.1 253 15 103 | 47.5 o 10500 12.0 252 15 103 | 50.1 o 10000 11.7 247 16 103 | 52.5 * o 9500 10.5 242 17 101 | 53.9 .* o 9000 9.1 234 18 100 | 55.2 . * o 8500 8.9 225 17 100 | 57.6 . * o 8000 8.0 210 14 99 | 59.4 . * o 7500 4.8 194 13 96 | 58.9 . * o 7000 2.7 179 12 94 | 59.5 . * o 6500 1.6 178 14 93 | 61.1 . *o 6000 -0.2 175 15 91 | 61.9 . o 5500 -7.9 182 9 83 | 57.0 . o * 5000 -10.7 80 | 56.8 . o * 4500 -13.5 78 | 56.7 . o * 4000 -16.3 75 | 56.5 . o * 3500 -19.1 72 | 56.4 . o * 3000 -21.9 69 | 56.2 . o * 2500 -24.7 66 | 56.1 . o * 2000 -27.6 63 | 56.0 . o * 1500 -30.4 61 | 55.8 . o * 1000 -33.2 58 | 55.7 . o * 500 -36.0 55 ! 55.5 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@ 6061 73 -2694 8755 13938 0 53 -3746 9807 13938 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+WxCtmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from SGR MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 91.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 92.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 92.9 F Surface elev Temp: 79.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 80.9 F Surface elevation: 127 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 127 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 79.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 80.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 17551 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2429 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.2 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 16000 18.6 110 | 26.7 15500 18.5 110 | 29.3 15000 18.4 109 | 31.8 14500 18.2 109 | 34.3 14000 18.1 109 | 36.8 13500 17.9 109 | 39.4 13000 17.8 109 | 41.9 o 12500 17.6 109 | 44.4 o 12000 17.5 235 15 108 | 46.9 o 11500 17.4 234 14 108 | 49.5 o 11000 17.3 226 13 108 | 52.1 o 10500 17.2 218 12 108 | 54.7 o 10000 17.1 208 11 108 | 57.2 * o 9500 17.1 197 10 108 | 59.9 * o 9000 17.0 184 9 108 | 62.4 * o 8500 16.9 172 9 108 | 65.0 * o 8000 16.8 161 9 108 | 67.6 * o 7500 16.8 151 9 108 | 70.3 * o 7000 16.7 144 10 108 | 72.9 * o 6500 16.8 137 10 108 | 75.6 * o 6000 16.8 131 10 108 | 78.3 * o 5500 16.1 125 9 107 | 80.3 * o 5000 13.5 104 | 80.3 * o 4500 10.8 102 | 80.4 * o 4000 8.2 99 | 80.4 * o 3500 5.6 97 | 80.5 * o 3000 3.0 94 | 80.5 * o 2500 0.4 91 | 80.6 *o 2000 -2.2 89 | 80.6 o * 1500 -4.9 86 | 80.7 o * 1000 -7.5 84 | 80.8 o * 500 -10.1 81 ! 80.8 o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 127 TI=0@ 2429 -1 -12613 15042 15797 0 -1 -12613 15042 15797 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77474 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/77474 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html