DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for EPHRATA,WA on THU Jul 24 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 9900,11783 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 9543 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1675 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 36 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 792 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1160 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 64% PM= 40% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 1848 ft LCL= 9887 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -2772 ft LCL= 12967 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 11090,13250 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 10809 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +340 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 8416,12100 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9708 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KMWH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at EPH @ 07/24:12Z for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 9750,11733 Hcrit= 9459 HgtVar=1433 B/S=23 W*= 767 MAPS WxC Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 9750,11733 Hcrit= 9459 HgtVar=1433 B/S=23 W*= 767 MAPS AVG Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 9750,11733 Hcrit= 9459 HgtVar=1433 B/S=23 W*= 767 ETA NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@10050,11833 Hcrit= 9627 HgtVar=1917 B/S=49 W*= 817 ETA WxC Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@10050,11833 Hcrit= 9627 HgtVar=1917 B/S=49 W*= 817 ETA AVG Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@10050,11833 Hcrit= 9627 HgtVar=1917 B/S=49 W*= 817 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 9750,11733 Hcrit= 9459 HgtVar=1433 B/S=23 W*= 767 MAPSanl:07/24:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: -840 (-2.4F) MAPS11h:07/25:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@10050,11833 Hcrit= 9627 HgtVar=1917 B/S=49 W*= 817 ETAanal:07/24:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: -1481 (-3.8F) ETA12hr:07/25:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@11090,13250 Hcrit=10809 HgtVar=3416 B/S=22 W*= 851 ETA24hr:07/25:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 96 > Change@TI=+4: +340 (+0.6F) ETA36hr:07/26:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 92 > TI=-4,0@ 8416,12100 Hcrit= 9708 HgtVar=3685 B/S=10 W*= 748 ETA48hr:07/26:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 24-Jul-2008 12 UTC TI report from EPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 87.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 89.4 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 89.3 F Surface elev Temp: 58.3 F Surface elev VirtT: 60.5 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1650 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 58.3 F Lowest elev VirtT: 60.5 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10595 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 11735 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 7.7 95 | 23.7 * o 14500 6.8 94 | 25.6 * o 14000 5.9 315 18 93 | 27.3 * o 13500 4.8 92 | 28.8 * o 13000 3.6 318 13 91 | 30.3 * o 12500 2.3 89 | 31.7 *o 12000 0.8 88 | 32.9 *o 11500 -0.7 313 7 86 | 34.0 o* 11000 -2.4 295 2 85 | 35.0 . o * 10500 -3.5 227 0 84 | 36.6 . o * 10000 -3.8 215 0 83 | 39.0 . o * 9500 -4.2 106 1 83 | 41.3 . o * 9000 -5.5 087 3 82 | 42.6 . o * 8500 -6.6 077 4 80 | 44.2 . o * 8000 -7.0 077 4 80 | 46.5 . o * 7500 -7.7 076 3 79 | 48.5 . o * 7000 -8.3 098 2 79 | 50.5 . o * 6500 -9.6 121 2 77 | 51.8 . o * 6000 -11.1 015 3 76 | 53.1 . o * 5500 -11.4 032 6 76 | 55.4 . o * 5000 -11.6 037 7 75 | 57.9 . o * 4500 -12.4 041 8 75 | 59.8 . o * 4000 -13.6 051 10 73 | 61.3 . o * 3500 -14.8 051 13 72 | 62.7 . o * 3000 -16.4 043 16 71 | 63.8 . o * 2500 -18.6 035 16 68 | 64.2 . o * 2000 -22.0 001 16 65 | 63.5 . o * 1500 -27.3 340 10 60 ! 60.9 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@11735 64 1848 9887 13899 0 46 -204 11939 13899 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 25-Jul-2008 00 UTC TI report from EPH MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 87.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 88.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 88.6 F Surface elev Temp: 83.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 84.7 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1650 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 83.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 84.7 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13018 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 3 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 10195 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 11.3 229 8 98 | 26.5 * o 14500 10.0 97 | 27.9 * o 14000 8.7 96 | 29.2 * o 13500 7.3 181 5 94 | 30.6 * o 13000 6.0 93 | 31.9 * o 12500 4.7 121 7 92 | 33.3 * o 12000 4.0 91 | 35.2 * o 11500 3.4 108 7 90 | 37.4 * o 11000 2.1 097 8 89 | 38.7 *o 10500 0.6 093 10 88 | 39.9 *o 10000 -0.4 087 11 87 | 41.5 o 9500 -1.3 86 | 43.3 o 9000 -2.0 085 13 85 | 45.3 . o* 8500 -2.6 082 14 84 | 47.4 . o * 8000 -3.1 082 13 84 | 49.5 . o * 7500 -3.4 085 10 84 | 51.9 . o * 7000 -3.7 090 8 83 | 54.3 . o * 6500 -3.7 094 7 83 | 56.9 . o * 6000 -3.7 098 6 83 | 59.6 . o * 5500 -3.7 102 6 83 | 62.3 . o * 5000 -3.7 110 5 83 | 64.9 . o * 4500 -3.7 115 5 83 | 67.6 . o * 4000 -3.5 123 4 83 | 70.5 . o * 3500 -3.5 130 4 83 | 73.1 . o * 3000 -3.5 138 4 84 | 75.8 . o * 2500 -3.4 151 4 84 | 78.6 . o * 2000 -3.4 148 4 84 | 81.3 . o * 1500 -3.6 150 4 83 ! 83.8 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@10195 46 -2117 12312 16863 0 40 -2772 12967 16863 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98823 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98823 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html