DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for EPHRATA,WA on TUE Mar 9 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 5940,7690 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 5832 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1447 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 27 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 512 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1737 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= -1% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5092 ft LCL= 8543 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -9390 ft LCL= 11641 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 7727,9346 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 7438 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: +602 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 6840,7653 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 6042 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KMWH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at EPH @ 03/09:12Z for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 2714, 3444 Hcrit= 2020 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 7 W*= 245 MAPS WxC Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 2714, 3444 Hcrit= 2020 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 7 W*= 245 MAPS AVG Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 2714, 3444 Hcrit= 2020 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 7 W*= 245 ETA NWS Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 9166,11937 Hcrit= 9644 HgtVar=2153 B/S=47 W*= 780 ETA WxC Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 9166,11937 Hcrit= 9644 HgtVar=2153 B/S=47 W*= 780 ETA AVG Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 9166,11937 Hcrit= 9644 HgtVar=2153 B/S=47 W*= 780 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 2714, 3444 Hcrit= 2020 HgtVar= 741 B/S= 7 W*= 245 MAPSanl:03/09:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 49 > Change@TI=+4: -754 (-6.2F) MAPS10h:03/10:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 9166,11937 Hcrit= 9644 HgtVar=2153 B/S=47 W*= 780 ETAanal:03/09:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 49 > Change@TI=+4: -2721 (-6.0F) ETA12hr:03/10:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 7727, 9346 Hcrit= 7438 HgtVar=1931 B/S=15 W*= 676 ETA24hr:03/10:12Z WEDpm NWS Tmax= 51 > Change@TI=+4: +602 (+1.7F) ETA36hr:03/11:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 51 > TI=-4,0@ 6840, 7653 Hcrit= 6042 HgtVar= 739 B/S= 7 W*= 615 ETA48hr:03/11:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 9-Mar-2010 12 UTC TI report from EPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 49.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 50.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 50.0 F Surface elev Temp: 37.2 F Surface elev VirtT: 38.2 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 37.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 38.2 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11114 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 6 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3451 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 31.4 354 29 80 | 8.1 * . o 14500 29.2 349 29 78 | 8.6 * . o 14000 26.5 343 30 76 | 8.6 * . o 13500 24.4 73 | 9.2 * . o 13000 22.8 338 32 72 | 10.2 * . o 12500 22.2 71 | 12.3 * . o 12000 21.6 71 | 14.4 * . o 11500 21.0 70 | 16.4 * . o 11000 20.4 69 | 18.5 * . o 10500 19.9 343 36 69 | 20.6 * . o 10000 19.5 68 | 22.9 * . o 9500 19.2 344 36 68 | 25.3 * . o 9000 19.0 346 37 68 | 27.8 * . o 8500 18.7 346 37 68 | 30.1 * . o 8000 18.2 346 36 67 | 32.3 * . o 7500 17.8 346 35 67 | 34.6 * . o 7000 17.7 348 34 67 | 37.1 *. o 6500 16.8 350 34 66 | 38.9 *. o 6000 14.0 337 22 63 | 38.8 * o 5500 11.1 320 14 60 | 38.6 .* o 5000 8.4 57 | 38.6 . * o 4500 5.7 55 | 38.5 . * o 4000 3.0 52 | 38.5 . * o 3500 0.3 49 | 38.4 . o 3000 -2.4 47 | 38.4 . o * 2500 -5.2 44 | 38.3 . o * 2000 -7.9 41 | 38.3 . o * 1500 -10.6 317 6 38 ! 38.3 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@ 3451 -1 -5092 8543 10565 0 -1 -5092 8543 10565 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 10-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from EPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 49.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 49.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 49.8 F Surface elev Temp: 43.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 44.6 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 43.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 44.6 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12824 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 10 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2251 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 24.9 74 | 1.4 * . o 14500 24.5 73 | 3.6 * .o 14000 24.0 73 | 5.8 * .o 13500 23.6 73 | 8.0 * .o 13000 23.1 72 | 10.2 * .o 12500 22.7 283 16 72 | 12.5 * o 12000 21.5 70 | 13.9 * .o 11500 20.3 69 | 15.4 * . o 11000 19.3 341 14 68 | 17.1 * . o 10500 19.0 68 | 19.4 * . o 10000 18.6 68 | 21.7 * . o 9500 18.2 008 18 67 | 24.0 * . o 9000 17.9 019 19 67 | 26.4 *. o 8500 17.8 020 19 67 | 28.9 .* o 8000 17.9 024 20 67 | 31.7 .* o 7500 17.7 026 20 67 | 34.2 . * o 7000 17.7 029 20 67 | 36.9 . * o 6500 17.7 030 20 67 | 39.6 . * o 6000 17.6 033 18 67 | 42.2 . * o 5500 17.1 035 15 66 | 44.3 . * o 5000 14.4 63 | 44.3 . * o 4500 11.8 61 | 44.4 . * o 4000 9.2 58 | 44.4 . * o 3500 6.6 56 | 44.4 . * o 3000 3.9 53 | 44.5 . * o 2500 1.3 50 | 44.5 . *o 2000 -1.3 48 | 44.6 . o* 1500 -3.9 036 10 45 ! 44.6 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@ 2251 -1 -9390 11641 12906 0 -1 -9390 11641 12906 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98823 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98823 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html