DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for EPHRATA,WA on THU Jul 29 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7753,9855 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7886 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1498 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 12 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 670 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1755 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 71% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3209 ft LCL= 9021 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -10873 ft LCL= 13810 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 6875,11142 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 8658 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +636 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2854,3400 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2117 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KMWH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at EPH @ 07/29:12Z for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5507, 5810 Hcrit= 4467 HgtVar= 346 B/S=13 W*= 500 MAPS WxC Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@ 5738, 6061 Hcrit= 4728 HgtVar= 408 B/S=12 W*= 540 MAPS AVG Tmax=94.5> TI=-4,0@ 5623, 5930 Hcrit= 4597 HgtVar= 386 B/S=13 W*= 521 ETA NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@10000,13900 Hcrit=11306 HgtVar=2650 B/S=12 W*= 840 ETA WxC Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@13000,15937 Hcrit=13182 HgtVar=2063 B/S=14 W*= 980 ETA AVG Tmax=94.5> TI=-4,0@11600,15000 Hcrit=12314 HgtVar=2300 B/S=13 W*= 912 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@ 5507, 5810 Hcrit= 4467 HgtVar= 346 B/S=13 W*= 500 MAPSanl:07/29:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -2101 (-27.3F) MAPS10h:07/30:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 93 > TI=-4,0@10000,13900 Hcrit=11306 HgtVar=2650 B/S=12 W*= 840 ETAanal:07/29:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 93 > Change@TI=+4: -1409 (-2.5F) ETA12hr:07/30:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 94 > TI=-4,0@ 6875,11142 Hcrit= 8658 HgtVar=3258 B/S=18 W*= 618 ETA24hr:07/30:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 94 > Change@TI=+4: +636 (+1.2F) ETA36hr:07/31:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 85 > TI=-4,0@ 2854, 3400 Hcrit= 2117 HgtVar=1975 B/S= 8 W*= 257 ETA48hr:07/31:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 29-Jul-2010 12 UTC TI report from EPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 96.6 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 96.6 F Surface elev Temp: 63.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 66.9 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 63.5 F Lowest elev VirtT: 66.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 14337 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 7 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5812 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 18.4 111 | 41.7 * o 14500 17.9 111 | 43.8 * o 14000 17.4 110 | 46.0 * o 13500 16.9 110 | 48.1 * o 13000 16.4 193 16 109 | 50.3 * o 12500 16.0 194 17 109 | 52.6 . * o 12000 15.7 197 14 109 | 54.9 . * o 11500 15.7 202 13 109 | 57.7 . * o 11000 15.7 217 11 109 | 60.3 . * o 10500 14.4 230 9 107 | 61.7 . * o 10000 12.8 238 7 106 | 62.8 . * o 9500 11.7 232 8 105 | 64.3 . * o 9000 11.1 217 10 104 | 66.4 . * o 8500 11.0 209 13 104 | 68.9 . * o 8000 10.8 209 16 104 | 71.5 . * o 7500 10.0 208 17 103 | 73.3 . * o 7000 9.3 207 18 102 | 75.3 . * o 6500 7.3 210 18 100 | 75.9 . * o 6000 2.5 216 17 95 | 73.8 . *o 5500 -4.1 203 13 89 | 70.0 . o * 5000 -7.1 86 | 69.6 . o * 4500 -10.1 83 | 69.2 . o * 4000 -13.1 80 | 68.9 . o * 3500 -16.2 77 | 68.5 . o * 3000 -19.2 74 | 68.1 . o * 2500 -22.2 71 | 67.8 . o * 2000 -25.3 68 | 67.4 . o * 1500 -28.3 162 5 65 ! 67.1 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@ 5812 71 -3209 9021 14231 0 57 -3740 9552 14231 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 30-Jul-2010 00 UTC TI report from EPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 93.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 95.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 95.9 F Surface elev Temp: 84.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 87.3 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 84.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 87.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15540 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 13 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 13 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2937 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 17.1 110 | 39.6 * . o 14500 16.7 110 | 41.9 * . o 14000 16.3 109 | 44.2 * . o 13500 15.9 109 | 46.5 * . o 13000 15.5 109 | 48.8 * . o 12500 15.2 024 5 108 | 51.1 * . o 12000 15.0 012 7 108 | 53.6 * . o 11500 15.0 009 8 108 | 56.2 * . o 11000 14.8 003 10 108 | 58.8 *. o 10500 14.7 000 11 108 | 61.3 * o 10000 14.6 354 13 108 | 63.9 . * o 9500 14.5 350 15 107 | 66.4 . * o 9000 14.5 346 16 107 | 69.1 . * o 8500 14.3 341 18 107 | 71.6 . * o 8000 14.1 336 20 107 | 74.1 . * o 7500 14.0 332 21 107 | 76.7 . * o 7000 14.0 329 22 107 | 79.3 . * o 6500 14.0 327 22 107 | 82.0 . * o 6000 14.1 325 21 107 | 84.8 . * o 5500 13.4 323 19 106 | 86.7 . * o 5000 10.8 104 | 86.8 . * o 4500 8.2 101 | 86.8 . * o 4000 5.5 99 | 86.9 . * o 3500 2.9 96 | 87.0 . * o 3000 0.3 93 | 87.0 . o 2500 -2.3 91 | 87.1 . o* 2000 -4.9 88 | 87.2 . o * 1500 -7.5 323 13 86 ! 87.2 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@ 2937 -1 -10873 13810 14485 0 -1 -10873 13810 14485 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98823 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98823 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html