DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for EPHRATA,WA on TUE Jul 14 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 7770,9641 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 7672 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 3108 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 14 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 681 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -254 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +1 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 60% PM= 41% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -647 ft LCL= 10601 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -3088 ft LCL= 12839 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) WED AM HEIGHTS: 11708,13875 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 11365 ftMSL WED PM CHANGE: -1626 ft @TI=+4 THU AM HEIGHTS: 9571,12125 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 9683 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KMWH ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at EPH @ 07/14:12Z for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPS NWS Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 8083, 9950 Hcrit= 7876 HgtVar=2716 B/S=13 W*= 665 MAPS WxC Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 8692,10500 Hcrit= 8373 HgtVar=3000 B/S=14 W*= 701 MAPS AVG Tmax=86.5> TI=-4,0@ 8500,10222 Hcrit= 8122 HgtVar=2861 B/S=14 W*= 683 ETA NWS Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 7458, 9333 Hcrit= 7469 HgtVar=3500 B/S=16 W*= 698 ETA WxC Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 7875, 9850 Hcrit= 7925 HgtVar=3792 B/S=16 W*= 730 ETA AVG Tmax=86.5> TI=-4,0@ 7666, 9600 Hcrit= 7705 HgtVar=3650 B/S=16 W*= 715 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 8083, 9950 Hcrit= 7876 HgtVar=2716 B/S=13 W*= 665 MAPSanl:07/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 86 > Change@TI=+4: -45 (-0.1F) MAPS10h:07/15:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 86 > TI=-4,0@ 7458, 9333 Hcrit= 7469 HgtVar=3500 B/S=16 W*= 698 ETAanal:07/14:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 86 > Change@TI=+4: -464 (-0.9F) ETA12hr:07/15:00Z WEDam NWS Tmax= 94 > TI=-4,0@11708,13875 Hcrit=11365 HgtVar=2075 B/S=32 W*= 885 ETA24hr:07/15:12Z WEDpm NWS Tmax= 94 > Change@TI=+4: -1626 (-3.7F) ETA36hr:07/16:00Z THUam wxc Tmax= 96 > TI=-4,0@ 9571,12125 Hcrit= 9683 HgtVar=2732 B/S=13 W*= 727 ETA48hr:07/16:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using MAPSanal+NWStmax *************** 14-Jul-2009 12 UTC TI report from EPH MAPSanl upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 86.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 87.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 88.0 F Surface elev Temp: 56.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 58.0 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1646 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 56.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 58.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 11882 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 4 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9954 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 7.6 310 10 94 | 22.1 * o 14500 6.8 93 | 23.9 * o 14000 5.9 92 | 25.7 * o 13500 5.0 311 9 91 | 27.5 * o 13000 4.4 90 | 29.5 * o 12500 3.8 90 | 31.7 * o 12000 3.3 89 | 33.8 * o 11500 2.8 324 7 89 | 35.9 * o 11000 2.0 88 | 37.9 *o 10500 1.0 338 8 87 | 39.6 . *o 10000 0.1 346 9 86 | 41.3 . o 9500 -0.9 349 10 85 | 43.0 . o 9000 -2.2 355 10 84 | 44.4 . o* 8500 -3.5 001 10 82 | 45.7 . o * 8000 -4.1 008 10 82 | 47.8 . o * 7500 -4.7 014 10 81 | 49.9 . o * 7000 -5.5 014 10 80 | 51.7 . o * 6500 -6.3 010 9 80 | 53.7 . o * 6000 -6.6 331 2 79 | 56.0 . o * 5500 -7.2 226 2 79 | 58.1 . o * 5000 -8.7 203 4 77 | 59.2 . o * 4500 -11.0 153 5 75 | 59.6 . o * 4000 -12.3 089 6 74 | 61.0 . o * 3500 -13.4 046 11 73 | 62.6 . o * 3000 -17.2 030 16 69 | 61.4 . o * 2500 -21.3 019 19 65 | 59.9 . o * 2000 -24.2 352 13 62 | 59.7 . o * 1500 -28.1 337 7 58 ! 58.6 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@ 9954 60 -647 10601 14848 0 51 -2722 12676 14848 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 15-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from EPH MAPS10h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 86.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 87.5 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 87.5 F Surface elev Temp: 82.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 84.1 F Surface elevation: 1276 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 1646 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1276 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 82.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 84.1 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 12994 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 9 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 9751 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 1.6 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 15000 10.2 96 | 24.4 * o 14500 9.4 95 | 26.2 * o 14000 8.6 288 13 95 | 28.1 * o 13500 7.1 93 | 29.3 * o 13000 5.3 284 10 91 | 30.1 * o 12500 4.3 90 | 31.8 * o 12000 3.5 89 | 33.6 * o 11500 2.6 284 7 89 | 35.5 *o 11000 1.9 292 7 88 | 37.5 *o 10500 1.2 297 8 87 | 39.4 *o 10000 0.4 86 | 41.3 o 9500 -0.4 303 10 86 | 43.1 . o 9000 -1.2 301 12 85 | 45.0 . o* 8500 -1.7 299 13 84 | 47.2 . o* 8000 -2.2 296 12 84 | 49.3 . o* 7500 -2.7 290 11 83 | 51.5 . o * 7000 -3.1 252 7 83 | 53.8 . o * 6500 -3.2 239 7 83 | 56.4 . o * 6000 -3.1 232 7 83 | 59.1 . o * 5500 -3.2 224 8 83 | 61.7 . o* 5000 -3.1 218 8 83 | 64.5 . o * 4500 -3.1 211 9 83 | 67.1 . o * 4000 -3.1 206 9 83 | 69.8 . o * 3500 -3.1 202 10 83 | 72.5 . o * 3000 -3.1 198 10 83 | 75.2 . o * 2500 -3.0 196 10 83 | 77.9 . o * 2000 -2.8 194 10 83 | 80.8 . o * 1500 -3.0 192 9 83 ! 83.3 . o CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1276 TI=0@ 9751 44 -2570 12321 15850 0 41 -3088 12839 15850 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98823 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98823 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html