DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for EPHRATA,WA on FRI Feb 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= % PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) NOWXC24 AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL NOWXC24 PM CHANGE: ft @TI=+4 NOWXC48 AM HEIGHTS: , ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** TAF KMWH 031720Z 0318/0418 35007KT P6SM SKC FM041100 34005KT 6SM BCFG SCT002 ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's MORNING MODEL ANALYSES at EPH @ 02/03:12Z for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. NO MAPSanal+WxCtmax TI - bad WxC temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. NO MAPSanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. NO ETAanal+NWStmax TI - bad NWS temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. NO ETAanal+WxCtmax TI - bad WxC temp prediction, Tmax=BadDay. NO ETAanal+AVGtmax TI - bad AVG temp prediction, Tmax=NoAvg. MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- NO MAPSanal+Nonetmax TI - bad None temp prediction, Tmax=NoHr0Tavg. NO MAPSpm+Nonetmax TI - no 12Z result available ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at EPH for Sfc= 1276 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- NO ETAanal+Nonetmax TI - bad None temp prediction, Tmax=NoHr0Tavg. NO ETA12hr+Nonetmax TI - no 12Z result available NO ETA24hr+noWxC24tmax TI - bad noWxC24 temp prediction, Tmax=noWxC24. NO ETA36hr+noWxC24tmax TI - no 12Z result available NO ETA48hr+noWxC48tmax TI - bad noWxC48 temp prediction, Tmax=noWxC48. ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98823 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98823 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html