DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Enumclaw, WA on WED Sep 1 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 3568,5888 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4051 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1212 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 7 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 374 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1783 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +5 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 97% PM= % AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2126 ft LCL= 3762 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= ft LCL= ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) THU AM HEIGHTS: 4227,5131 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3667 ftMSL THU PM CHANGE: -2003 ft @TI=+4 FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1948,2868 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1100 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTCM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at UIL @ 09/01:12Z for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 3568, 5888 Hcrit= 4051 HgtVar=1212 B/S= 7 W*= 374 WxC Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 6266, 7266 Hcrit= 5513 HgtVar= 956 B/S= 9 W*= 526 AVG Tmax=65.5> TI=-4,0@ 4375, 6735 Hcrit= 4933 HgtVar= 800 B/S= 8 W*= 456 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 2155, 2857 Hcrit= 1100 HgtVar= 696 B/S= 8 W*= 189 MAPSanl:09/01:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 80.4 > 63.0 pm NWS Tmax= 63 > Change@TI=+4: -2774 (-26.5F) MAPS9h:09/02:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 63 > TI=-4,0@ 2944, 5045 Hcrit= 3181 HgtVar=1801 B/S= 6 W*= 308 ETAanal:09/01:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 65.7 > 63.0 pm NWS Tmax= 63 > Change@TI=+4: -793 (-3.5F) ETA12hr:09/02:00Z THUam NWS Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 4227, 5131 Hcrit= 3667 HgtVar=1119 B/S=18 W*= 396 ETA24hr:09/02:12Z THUpm NWS Tmax= 74 > Change@TI=+4: -2003 (-10.2F) ETA36hr:09/03:00Z FRIam wxc Tmax= 77 > TI=-4,0@ 1948, 2868 Hcrit= 1100 HgtVar=1285 B/S= 7 W*= 199 ETA48hr:09/03:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 1-SEP-2010 12 UTC TI report from UIL OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 63.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 65.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 65.2 F Raob est. max temp: 67.8 F Surface elev Temp: 51.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 53.9 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 203 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2382 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 47.1 F Lowest elev VirtT: 49.3 F Lifted Index @700mb: 6.3 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 390 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 1830 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 2008 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 4064 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 12 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 10 kt Convection overcast height: 5631 ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5888 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 37.0 100 | 11.9 * . o 17500 36.9 304 65 100 | 14.5 * . o 17000 35.3 305 63 98 | 15.5 * . o 16500 33.4 302 55 96 | 16.4 * . o 16000 31.6 301 53 95 | 17.2 . * o 15500 30.4 93 | 18.6 * o 15000 29.5 93 | 20.5 * o 14500 28.7 92 | 22.4 * o 14000 27.9 91 | 24.2 * o 13500 27.1 90 | 26.1 * o 13000 26.0 303 40 89 | 27.7 * o 12500 24.5 87 | 28.8 * o 12000 22.9 86 | 29.9 * o 11500 21.3 84 | 31.0 * o 11000 19.8 83 | 32.1 * o 10500 18.2 81 | 33.2 * o 10000 16.7 300 27 80 | 34.4 . * o 9500 15.5 306 22 78 | 35.8 . * o 9000 13.4 309 22 76 | 36.4 . * o 8500 10.5 317 20 73 | 36.2 . * o 8000 7.8 328 16 71 | 36.2 . * o 7500 6.4 341 11 69 | 37.4 . * o 7000 3.4 342 11 66 | 37.1 * o 6500 1.7 65 | 38.1 .*o 6000 0.2 63 | 39.3 . o 5500 -0.7 308 9 62 | 41.0 . o 5000 -0.8 325 11 62 | 43.6 . o 4500 -1.3 317 11 62 | 45.8 . o 4000 -2.1 282 11 61 | 47.7 . o* 3500 -4.3 292 10 59 | 48.1 . o * 3000 -6.5 56 | 48.5 o * 2500 -8.7 300 11 54 | 49.1 o * 2000 -9.8 53 | 50.7 o * 1500 -10.6 52 | 52.5 .o * 1000 -11.5 52 | 54.3 .o * 500 -12.4 310 3 51 ! 56.1 .o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 5888 97 2126 3762 5188 0 82 769 5119 5178 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 2-Sep-2010 00 UTC TI report from TCM MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 63.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 82.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 82.3 F Surface elev Temp: 80.4 F Surface elev VirtT: 82.3 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1100 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 80.4 F Lowest elev VirtT: 82.3 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 15213 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: None Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 28.6 92 | 20.6 * . o 17500 25.8 290 39 89 | 20.5 * . o 17000 24.3 87 | 21.6 * . o 16500 24.2 87 | 24.2 * . o 16000 24.2 87 | 26.8 * . o 15500 24.1 87 | 29.4 * . o 15000 24.0 87 | 32.0 * . o 14500 24.0 87 | 34.6 * . o 14000 23.9 87 | 37.2 * . o 13500 23.8 87 | 39.8 * . o 13000 23.8 87 | 42.4 * . o 12500 23.7 87 | 45.1 * . o 12000 23.6 261 19 87 | 47.7 *. o 11500 23.6 260 19 87 | 50.3 *. o 11000 23.5 257 18 87 | 52.9 .* o 10500 23.6 254 16 87 | 55.6 . * o 10000 23.6 250 16 87 | 58.3 . * o 9500 23.6 246 15 87 | 61.0 . * o 9000 23.6 241 13 87 | 63.7 . * o 8500 23.5 236 13 87 | 66.3 . * o 8000 23.6 231 12 87 | 69.1 . * o 7500 23.6 225 11 87 | 71.7 . * o 7000 23.6 220 10 87 | 74.4 . * o 6500 23.6 214 9 87 | 77.0 . * o 6000 23.6 206 8 87 | 79.7 . * o 5500 22.9 196 7 86 | 81.7 . * o 5000 20.3 83 | 81.8 . * o 4500 17.7 81 | 81.8 . * o 4000 15.1 78 | 81.9 . * o 3500 12.5 76 | 82.0 . * o 3000 9.9 73 | 82.0 . * o 2500 7.3 70 | 82.1 . * o 2000 4.7 68 | 82.2 . * o 1500 2.1 65 ! 82.2 . * o ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98022 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98022 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html