DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Enumclaw, WA on THU Jul 24 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4814,5966 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4441 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1334 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 10 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 467 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -1859 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +4 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 73% PM= 43% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 843 ft LCL= 5127 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -4706 ft LCL= 7609 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) FRI AM HEIGHTS: 1983,2791 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1100 ftMSL FRI PM CHANGE: +558 ft @TI=+4 SAT AM HEIGHTS: 2972,4025 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 2452 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTCM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at UIL @ 07/24:12Z for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 4814, 5966 Hcrit= 4441 HgtVar=1334 B/S=10 W*= 467 WxC Tmax= 76 > TI=-4,0@ 5966, 7300 Hcrit= 5643 HgtVar=1325 B/S=13 W*= 570 AVG Tmax= 74 > TI=-4,0@ 5312, 6633 Hcrit= 5041 HgtVar=1333 B/S=12 W*= 518 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 4725, 5191 Hcrit= 3784 HgtVar= 466 B/S= 8 W*= 420 MAPSanl:07/24:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 72 > Change@TI=+4: -1556 (-15.1F) MAPS11h:07/25:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 4532, 5261 Hcrit= 3851 HgtVar= 977 B/S=11 W*= 427 ETAanal:07/24:12Z *NOTE: Below result uses raob sfc temp NOT input max temp, since 73.6 > 72.0 pm NWS Tmax= 72 > Change@TI=+4: -2162 (-12.3F) ETA12hr:07/25:00Z FRIam NWS Tmax= 72 > TI=-4,0@ 1983, 2791 Hcrit= 1100 HgtVar= 959 B/S=34 W*= 187 ETA24hr:07/25:12Z FRIpm NWS Tmax= 72 > Change@TI=+4: +558 (+4.9F) ETA36hr:07/26:00Z SATam wxc Tmax= 68 > TI=-4,0@ 2972, 4025 Hcrit= 2452 HgtVar=1006 B/S=10 W*= 278 ETA48hr:07/26:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 24-JUL-2008 12 UTC TI report from UIL OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 72.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 73.8 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 73.8 F Raob est. max temp: 72.5 F Surface elev Temp: 49.0 F Surface elev VirtT: 51.0 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 203 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 2723 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 48.2 F Lowest elev VirtT: 50.0 F Lifted Index @700mb: 11.2 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1328 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2993 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 11603 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 7342 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5970 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 28.9 101 | 12.4 * o 17500 27.8 100 | 14.0 * o 17000 26.8 99 | 15.7 * o 16500 25.8 98 | 17.3 * o 16000 24.8 97 | 19.0 * o 15500 23.7 96 | 20.6 * o 15000 22.7 95 | 22.3 * o 14500 21.7 94 | 23.9 * o 14000 20.7 93 | 25.6 * o 13500 19.6 92 | 27.2 * o 13000 18.6 91 | 28.9 * o 12500 17.6 90 | 30.5 * o 12000 16.6 89 | 32.1 * o 11500 15.5 88 | 33.8 * o 11000 14.5 87 | 35.4 * o 10500 13.5 065 1 85 | 37.1 * o 10000 12.2 84 | 38.5 * o 9500 10.7 83 | 39.6 * o 9000 9.2 81 | 40.8 . * o 8500 7.7 80 | 42.0 . * o 8000 6.1 78 | 43.1 . * o 7500 4.6 77 | 44.3 . * o 7000 3.1 75 | 45.4 . *o 6500 1.6 74 | 46.6 . *o 6000 0.1 72 | 47.7 . o 5500 -1.4 71 | 48.9 . o* 5000 -3.0 060 10 69 | 50.0 . o* 4500 -5.7 66 | 50.0 . o * 4000 -8.4 64 | 50.0 . o * 3500 -11.0 61 | 50.0 . o * 3000 -13.7 58 | 50.0 . o * 2500 -16.3 040 6 56 | 50.1 . o * 2000 -18.6 53 | 50.4 . o * 1500 -21.0 51 | 50.7 . o * 1000 -23.4 49 ! 51.0 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 5970 73 843 5127 13674 0 42 -2467 8437 13674 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 25-Jul-2008 00 UTC TI report from TCM MAPS11h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 72.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 73.9 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 74.0 F Surface elev Temp: 71.1 F Surface elev VirtT: 73.1 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 597 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1315 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 70.0 F Lowest elev VirtT: 72.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 7158 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 9 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 2903 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.0 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 31.6 104 | 15.2 * o 17500 30.9 103 | 17.2 * o 17000 30.3 102 | 19.2 * o 16500 29.6 102 | 21.2 * o 16000 28.9 207 11 101 | 23.2 * o 15500 28.3 100 | 25.2 * o 15000 27.6 100 | 27.2 * o 14500 26.9 99 | 29.3 * o 14000 26.3 200 10 98 | 31.3 * o 13500 25.2 97 | 32.9 * o 13000 24.1 96 | 34.5 * o 12500 22.8 177 9 95 | 35.8 * o 12000 21.0 148 10 93 | 36.7 * o 11500 19.3 91 | 37.7 . * o 11000 17.9 135 11 90 | 38.9 . * o 10500 16.6 137 11 89 | 40.3 . * o 10000 15.6 135 11 88 | 42.0 . * o 9500 14.8 136 12 87 | 43.8 . * o 9000 14.0 139 14 86 | 45.7 . * o 8500 13.1 135 17 85 | 47.5 . * o 8000 12.2 132 18 84 | 49.2 . * o 7500 11.1 132 18 83 | 50.9 . * o 7000 10.4 135 17 82 | 52.8 . * o 6500 9.9 141 14 82 | 54.9 . * o 6000 9.2 148 11 81 | 57.0 . * o 5500 8.3 151 9 80 | 58.7 . * o 5000 7.3 166 6 79 | 60.4 . * o 4500 5.9 199 4 78 | 61.6 . * o 4000 4.2 261 4 76 | 62.7 . * o 3500 2.7 306 6 75 | 63.8 . * o 3000 0.2 339 6 72 | 64.0 . o 2500 -0.8 017 8 71 | 65.7 . o* 2000 -0.8 020 9 71 | 68.3 . o 1500 -0.8 017 9 71 ! 71.0 . o* CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 2903 44 -4522 7425 13852 0 43 -4706 7609 13852 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98022 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98022 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html