DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Enumclaw, WA on MON Mar 15 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 4600,5777 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 4330 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 1111 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 3 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 474 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : -4669 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : +3 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 97% PM= -1% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= 2327 ft LCL= 3450 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -6587 ft LCL= 10228 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) TUE AM HEIGHTS: 1314,1618 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 1100 ftMSL TUE PM CHANGE: +567 ft @TI=+4 WED AM HEIGHTS: 4285,6937 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 4959 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTCM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at UIL @ 03/15:12Z for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 4600, 5777 Hcrit= 4330 HgtVar=1111 B/S= 3 W*= 474 WxC Tmax= 62 > TI=-4,0@ 5500, 6611 Hcrit= 5104 HgtVar=1155 B/S= 4 W*= 553 AVG Tmax=60.5> TI=-4,0@ 5083, 6194 Hcrit= 4717 HgtVar=1111 B/S= 4 W*= 513 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 6125, 8666 Hcrit= 6913 HgtVar= 639 B/S=42 W*= 696 MAPSanl:03/15:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: -7956 (-30.2F) MAPS9h:03/16:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 59 > TI=-4,0@ 4111, 5210 Hcrit= 3714 HgtVar=1053 B/S= 7 W*= 395 ETAanal:03/15:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 59 > Change@TI=+4: -1383 (-7.0F) ETA12hr:03/16:00Z TUEam NWS Tmax= 54 > TI=-4,0@ 1314, 1618 Hcrit= 1100 HgtVar= 339 B/S= 3 W*= 76 ETA24hr:03/16:12Z TUEpm NWS Tmax= 54 > Change@TI=+4: +567 (+77.6F) ETA36hr:03/17:00Z WEDam wxc Tmax= 49 > TI=-4,0@ 4285, 6937 Hcrit= 4959 HgtVar=2340 B/S= 5 W*= 427 ETA48hr:03/17:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 15-MAR-2010 12 UTC TI report from UIL OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 60.3 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 60.4 F Raob est. max temp: 59.7 F Surface elev Temp: 42.6 F Surface elev VirtT: 43.9 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 203 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1375 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 41.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 43.1 F Lifted Index @700mb: 8.7 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1543 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 2777 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 8334 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 5804 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 23 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 26 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 5777 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 22.9 82 | -7.0 * o 17500 22.4 225 40 81 | -4.9 * o 17000 21.0 80 | -3.6 * o 16500 19.6 79 | -2.3 * o 16000 18.2 77 | -1.1 * o 15500 16.8 225 39 76 | 0.2 * o 15000 16.1 225 39 75 | 2.1 . * o 14500 16.1 225 37 75 | 4.8 * . o 14000 15.6 224 35 75 | 7.0 * .o 13500 15.3 74 | 9.3 * . o 13000 14.6 223 33 74 | 11.3 * . o 12500 13.9 222 31 73 | 13.3 * .o 12000 13.5 72 | 15.6 * . o 11500 13.1 72 | 17.8 * . o 11000 12.7 72 | 20.1 * . o 10500 12.2 220 29 71 | 22.3 * .o 10000 11.4 220 29 70 | 24.1 * .o 9500 10.4 69 | 25.9 * .o 9000 9.5 69 | 27.6 * o 8500 8.6 68 | 29.4 * o 8000 7.7 219 33 67 | 31.1 * .o 7500 6.2 65 | 32.3 * .o 7000 4.4 63 | 33.2 *.o 6500 2.6 62 | 34.1 *.o 6000 0.8 60 | 35.0 .o 5500 -1.0 58 | 35.8 o* 5000 -2.8 220 25 56 | 36.7 .o* 4500 -4.3 55 | 37.9 o * 4000 -5.7 206 29 53 | 39.1 o * 3500 -8.2 187 28 51 | 39.3 o * 3000 -14.0 175 28 45 | 36.2 .o * 2500 -15.2 165 30 44 | 37.7 .o * 2000 -15.4 44 | 40.1 . o * 1500 -15.7 152 23 43 | 42.5 . o * 1000 -16.6 42 ! 44.3 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 5777 97 2327 3450 7764 0 86 -330 6107 7811 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 16-Mar-2010 00 UTC TI report from TCM MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 59.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 60.1 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 60.1 F Surface elev Temp: 45.9 F Surface elev VirtT: 46.9 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 5567 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1100 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 45.9 F Lowest elev VirtT: 46.9 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 13151 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 8 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 8 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 3641 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.0 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 25.9 85 | -4.4 *. o 17500 25.4 84 | -2.2 *. o 17000 24.9 84 | 0.0 *. o 16500 24.4 83 | 2.2 * o 16000 23.9 83 | 4.4 .* o 15500 23.1 354 17 82 | 6.2 .* o 15000 21.7 81 | 7.5 . * o 14500 20.4 346 22 79 | 8.9 . * o 14000 19.9 79 | 11.1 .* o 13500 19.4 78 | 13.2 .* o 13000 18.9 78 | 15.4 .* o 12500 18.4 77 | 17.6 * o 12000 17.9 77 | 19.8 *. o 11500 17.3 347 26 76 | 21.8 *. o 11000 15.6 75 | 22.7 . * o 10500 14.0 005 21 73 | 23.8 . * o 10000 12.9 72 | 25.4 . * o 9500 11.7 040 11 71 | 26.9 . * o 9000 10.8 061 9 70 | 28.7 .* o 8500 10.5 070 10 69 | 31.0 * o 8000 10.3 076 11 69 | 33.5 * o 7500 10.2 079 11 69 | 36.1 . * o 7000 10.3 081 12 69 | 38.8 . * o 6500 10.2 083 13 69 | 41.4 . * o 6000 10.3 083 13 69 | 44.2 . * o 5500 9.6 084 11 69 | 46.2 . * o 5000 7.0 66 | 46.3 . * o 4500 4.5 63 | 46.4 . * o 4000 1.9 61 | 46.4 . *o 3500 -0.7 58 | 46.5 . o 3000 -3.3 56 | 46.6 . o * 2500 -5.9 53 | 46.7 . o * 2000 -8.5 50 | 46.8 . o * 1500 -11.1 48 ! 46.8 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 3641 -1 -6587 10228 12049 0 -1 -6587 10228 12049 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98022 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98022 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html