DrJack's TIP (Thermal Index Prediction) for Enumclaw, WA on FRI Jul 3 ***************************************************************************** ****************** SUMMARY NUMBERS - based on NWS Tmax only ***************** AM Avg. TI HEIGHTS: 6500,8666 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF AM Avg. Hcrit HGT : 6592 ftMSL (Max. _flat_terrain_ thermalling height) AM HGT VARIABILITY: 2667 ft (from TI=0to+4degF) AM Avg. Buoy/Shear: 33 (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) AM Avg UPDRAFT W* : 551 fpm (subtract glider sinkrate to get vario) PM Avg HGT CHANGE : +517 ft @TI=+4degF Tmax UNCERTAINTY : 0 degF (deviation of WxC Tmax from NWS forecast) BL Max. Rel.Humid.: AM= 52% PM= 28% AM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -1326 ft LCL= 9999 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) PM Extensive CLOUD: Dif= -5165 ft LCL= 12582 ftMSL (if Dif>0, expect OD at LCL) THUNDERSTORM CAPE : AM= 0 PM= 0 (if CAPE>0, thunderstorms possible) SAT AM HEIGHTS: 5625,7687 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 5786 ftMSL SAT PM CHANGE: -720 ft @TI=+4 SUN AM HEIGHTS: 4000,5300 ftMSL @TI=-4,0degF & Hcrit= 3680 ftMSL ******************************************************************************* ***************** NEAREST NWS TAF FORECAST ************************************ *** description at http://www.awc-kc.noaa.gov/awc/help/taf-decode.html *** NO TAF FORECAST from KTCM ******************************************************************************* ******************** THERMAL INDEX ANALYSES *********************************** TODAY's ANALYSIS of MORNING SOUNDING at UIL @ 07/03:12Z for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 6500, 8666 Hcrit= 6592 HgtVar=2667 B/S=33 W*= 551 WxC Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 6500, 8666 Hcrit= 6592 HgtVar=2667 B/S=33 W*= 551 AVG Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 6500, 8666 Hcrit= 6592 HgtVar=2667 B/S=33 W*= 551 MAPS MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL -------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 5458, 8312 Hcrit= 6145 HgtVar=1597 B/S=18 W*= 491 MAPSanl:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 88 > Change@TI=+4: +1303 (+3.9F) MAPS9h:07/04:00Z ETA MODEL FORECAST TIs at TCM for Sfc= 1100 ftMSL ------------------------------------------------- am NWS Tmax= 88 > TI=-4,0@ 5100, 7500 Hcrit= 5602 HgtVar=3375 B/S=30 W*= 499 ETAanal:07/03:12Z pm NWS Tmax= 88 > Change@TI=+4: -269 (-0.6F) ETA12hr:07/04:00Z SATam NWS Tmax= 87 > TI=-4,0@ 5625, 7687 Hcrit= 5786 HgtVar=2884 B/S=31 W*= 516 ETA24hr:07/04:12Z SATpm NWS Tmax= 87 > Change@TI=+4: -720 (-1.7F) ETA36hr:07/05:00Z SUNam wxc Tmax= 83 > TI=-4,0@ 4000, 5300 Hcrit= 3680 HgtVar=1366 B/S=22 W*= 372 ETA48hr:07/05:12Z ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *AM* TI LISTING using RAOB+NWStmax *************** 3-JUL-2009 12 UTC TI report from UIL OBSraob upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 88.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 90.0 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 90.5 F Raob est. max temp: 85.8 F Surface elev Temp: 64.8 F Surface elev VirtT: 67.4 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 203 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1352 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 66.6 F Lowest elev VirtT: 69.0 F Lifted Index @700mb: 8.6 C Sfc-Lift Cond Lev: 1127 ftMSL Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 6372 ftMSL Conv Cond Lev (CCL): 12460 ftMSL Ford est. base of any clouds: 10345 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 5 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 3 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 8673 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.0 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 13.3 101 | 13.0 * o 17500 12.0 100 | 14.4 * o 17000 10.7 99 | 15.8 * o 16500 9.5 273 9 98 | 17.2 * o 16000 9.0 97 | 19.3 * o 15500 8.4 96 | 21.5 * o 15000 7.9 96 | 23.6 * o 14500 7.4 95 | 25.8 * o 14000 6.8 95 | 27.9 * o 13500 6.3 94 | 30.0 * o 13000 5.8 94 | 32.2 . * o 12500 5.2 93 | 34.3 . * o 12000 4.7 93 | 36.4 . * o 11500 4.2 92 | 38.6 . * o 11000 3.6 92 | 40.7 . * o 10500 3.1 285 2 91 | 42.9 . * o 10000 2.4 284 2 90 | 44.9 . *o 9500 1.5 90 | 46.6 . *o 9000 0.6 89 | 48.4 . *o 8500 -0.3 88 | 50.1 . o 8000 -1.2 87 | 51.9 . o 7500 -2.2 86 | 53.6 . o * 7000 -3.1 85 | 55.4 . o * 6500 -4.0 84 | 57.1 . o * 6000 -4.8 335 2 83 | 59.0 . o * 5500 -5.4 260 1 83 | 61.1 . o * 5000 -7.3 210 2 81 | 61.9 . o * 4500 -8.2 174 3 80 | 63.6 . o * 4000 -8.5 183 5 79 | 66.0 . o * 3500 -8.8 304 2 79 | 68.3 . o * 3000 -11.6 357 1 76 | 68.3 . o * 2500 -13.3 350 4 75 | 69.2 . o * 2000 -14.4 010 8 74 | 70.8 . o * 1500 -18.4 006 5 70 ! 69.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from AM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 8673 52 -1326 9999 14698 0 32 -3646 12319 14698 0 ******************************************************************************* **************** TODAY's *PM* TI LISTING using MAPSpm+NWStmax ***************** *NB* TI values below pm model-predicted mixing height are meaningless ! 4-Jul-2009 00 UTC TI report from TCM MAPS9h upper air data. Forecast max Temp.: 88.0 F Forecast max VirtT: 90.2 F Forecast sfc VirtT: 90.4 F Surface elev Temp: 78.5 F Surface elev VirtT: 80.9 F Surface elevation: 1100 ftMSL SfcAdjust:1 Station elevation: 541 ftMSL Lowest elevation: 1266 ftMSL Lowest elev Temp: 77.7 F Lowest elev VirtT: 80.0 F Ford est. base of any clouds: 10041 ftMSL Lowest elev windspeed: 6 kt Mixing Layer windspeed: 5 kt Convection overcast height: None ftMSL Convection TI=0 height: 7417 ftMSL Height *TI* Wind TI=0 Tv ------ Temperature Profile Plots ------ ftMSL degF deg kts trig degF o=Tv .=DewPt *=Adiabat 2.1 degF/division ----- ---- ------- ---- . ---- --------------------------------------------- 18000 14.9 103 | 14.8 * o 17500 14.0 102 | 16.6 * o 17000 13.1 218 16 101 | 18.4 * o 16500 12.4 100 | 20.3 * o 16000 11.7 100 | 22.3 * o 15500 11.0 99 | 24.3 * o 15000 10.3 98 | 26.3 * o 14500 9.3 226 14 97 | 27.9 * o 14000 8.0 96 | 29.3 * o 13500 6.7 230 12 95 | 30.6 * o 13000 5.9 94 | 32.5 * o 12500 5.1 93 | 34.4 * o 12000 4.3 92 | 36.3 * o 11500 3.7 240 10 92 | 38.4 * o 11000 3.4 235 8 91 | 40.7 *o 10500 3.0 233 7 91 | 43.0 *o 10000 2.5 232 7 91 | 45.2 *o 9500 2.1 226 6 90 | 47.5 * o 9000 1.8 219 6 90 | 49.8 . *o 8500 1.4 215 6 89 | 52.1 . *o 8000 0.8 213 6 89 | 54.1 . *o 7500 0.2 199 6 88 | 56.2 . o 7000 -0.9 196 6 87 | 57.8 . o 6500 -2.1 197 6 86 | 59.3 . o* 6000 -3.4 208 6 85 | 60.6 . o * 5500 -4.9 228 5 83 | 61.8 . o * 5000 -6.4 257 5 82 | 63.0 . o * 4500 -7.3 293 6 81 | 64.7 . o * 4000 -8.2 303 7 80 | 66.6 . o * 3500 -9.1 319 6 79 | 68.3 . o * 3000 -9.2 331 7 79 | 70.9 . o * 2500 -9.3 339 6 79 | 73.4 . o * 2000 -9.3 343 6 79 | 76.1 . o * 1500 -9.3 347 6 79 | 78.8 . o * 1000 -9.4 354 5 79 ! 81.4 . o * CLOUD FORMATION PARAMETERS from PM sounding -------------------------------------------------------------- Expect extensive cloud formation at LCL when LCLdiff positive or over mountains when LCL is (approx) below mt top (1stLine=_no_warming, 2ndLine=_with_warming) Thunderstorms possible when CAPE is positive BLmaxRH LCLdiff LCL CCL CAPE Zsfc= 1100 TI=0@ 7417 38 -3788 11205 15629 0 28 -5165 12582 15629 0 ****************************************************************************** ******************** MISCELLANEOUS NOTES ************************************* Addtional local weather information is available at the Tmax data sites: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=98022 http://www.weather.com/weather/local/ and at the hourly data site: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/98022 The latest TIP forecasts are also available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/TIP/index.html The hourly-updated BLIP forecasts of thermal soaring parameters at specific locations for various times throughout the day are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/index.html The latest BLIPMAP area forecasts of thermal soaring parameters for the current day over CA/NV are available on the web at: http://www.drjack.info/BLIPMAP/index.html