DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/05 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 61.0 - - 68.1 - - 66.8 - - 65.2 - - 57.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 156 - - 486 - - 105 - - 85 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2875 - - 6780 - - 7443 - - 7327 - - 3870 BL Depth Hcrit 6403 - - 9910 - - 9509 - - 9218 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 7703 - - 11608 - - 12271 - - 12155 - - 8698 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1790 - - 1279 - - 1699 - - 2256 - - 2956 Hgt.Variab. W* 320 - - 622 - - 387 - - 358 - - 42 W* B/S 3 - - 4 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 17 - - 26 - - 29 - - 31 - - 21 BL Wind Direction 195 - - 208 - - 210 - - 224 - - 253 Direction Wind Shear 10 - - 19 - - 14 - - 16 - - 17 Wind Shear Max.Converg 35 - - 55 - - 72 - - 90 - - 31 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2364 - - -1376 - - -261 - - 2345 - - -477 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10068 - - 12985 - - 12532 - - 9810 - - 9175 sfcLCL ODpotential -8430 - - -6334 - - -2869 - - 1440 - - -3176 ODpotential blCL 16133 - - 17942 - - 15140 - - 10715 - - 11874 blCL maxRH 78 - - 95 - - 100 - - 99 - - 60 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 80 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 61.0 - - 68.1 - - 66.8 - - 65.2 - - 57.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.9 - - 25.8 - - 26.7 - - 37.0 - - 32.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 61.1 - - 66.8 - - 67.3 - - 65.8 - - 59.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.7 - - 25.3 - - 26.5 - - 37.0 - - 32.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 156 - - 486 - - 105 - - 85 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2875 - - 6780 - - 7443 - - 7327 - - 3870 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 12 - - 80 - - 100 - - 98 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98327 8 073 9 168 10 196 9 256 9 304 98327 90945 9 062 8 138 6 092 5 124 5 141 90945 85228 4 142 8 122 1 122 9 096 8 119 85228 80453 15 109 3 087 4 202 2 360 6 061 80453 76321 8 160 3 181 2 125 2 021 1 083 76321 72679 6 163 2 245 5 180 2 224 1 154 72679 69396 2 340 9 206 1 222 5 193 4 323 69396 66370 7 231 10 210 9 261 13 208 8 222 66370 63561 12 079 7 186 16 207 7 181 7 103 63561 60824 5 227 9 065 13 184 12 271 15 279 60824 57977 41 250 24 267 30 258 35 260 35 247 57977 55055 41 245 43 242 31 252 27 249 25 234 55055 52260 34 253 35 240 20 243 11 208 17 211 52260 49713 36 261 33 264 19 257 12 250 28 254 49713 47417 47 261 39 273 34 264 40 264 47 273 47417 45341 55 260 51 268 56 259 64 257 65 267 45341 43453 62 261 67 262 72 257 75 253 73 260 43453 41724 73 261 82 259 84 257 85 257 79 269 41724 40136 82 258 94 253 95 255 102 257 95 273 40136 38670 85 255 98 248 100 250 111 250 107 262 38670 37311 84 254 97 246 99 248 109 247 106 255 37311 36013 81 255 94 247 98 248 103 248 103 255 36013 34708 79 256 92 248 98 249 101 249 105 255 34708 33364 78 256 89 248 97 249 103 251 108 254 33364 31983 78 257 87 248 97 249 102 251 108 254 31983 30553 77 257 86 248 96 248 101 250 108 256 30553 29066 75 258 85 248 96 248 99 250 108 259 29066 27525 72 259 83 248 94 248 95 251 109 264 27525 25936 69 259 80 249 90 248 92 250 107 268 25936 24306 66 259 77 249 87 247 89 249 92 267 24306 22643 63 257 74 248 84 245 87 247 75 258 22643 20935 60 254 72 246 81 245 84 245 69 256 20935 19172 59 250 70 245 76 244 78 243 63 264 19172 17387 57 246 64 243 68 242 68 240 57 271 17387 15678 53 242 57 239 58 235 54 235 51 265 15678 14127 49 236 50 233 47 226 42 229 44 253 14127 12746 46 232 43*228 37*220 35*224 38 239 12746 11511 44 229 34*223 32*213 34*224 32 235 11511 10403 40 226 28 215 31 213 33 224 27 238 10403 9406 36 223 26 210 31 212 32 224 25*244 9406 8512 30 219 26 208 31 211 32 224 25*249 8512 7712 25*213 26 206 30 209 31 224 24 251 7712 6996 20*205 26 204 30 209 31 224 24 253 6996 6346 18 198 25 203 29 208 30 224 23 254 6346 5763 17 194 25 202 29 206 30 224 22 255 5763 5272 16 191 24 201 28 206 29 224 20 256 5272 4891 16 190 23 200 27 205 27 223 18 256 4891 4627 15 189 22 200 25 205 26 223 15 257 4627 4466 14 189 21 199 23 204 23 223 13 256 4466 4373 11 188 18 200 18 204 18 222 8 254 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography