DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 07/31 LakePleasant_AZ 1580ft pt24768@-112.197,33.735,1795ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.7 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 82.7 - - 90.8 - - 99.8 - - 99.8 - - 94.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 6 - - 522 - - 584 - - 290 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 55 - - 3791 - - 9121 - - 8377 - - 55 BL Depth Hcrit 1580 - - 4267 - - 8616 - - 7648 - - 1580 Hcrit BL Top 1635 - - 5371 - - 10701 - - 9957 - - 1635 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 887 - - 1969 - - 2250 - - 1720 - - 7820 Hgt.Variab. W* 29 - - 510 - - 710 - - 547 - - 10 W* B/S 1 - - 12 - - 16 - - 19 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 8 - - 5 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 069 - - 129 - - 141 - - 160 - - 182 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 11 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4860 - - -2278 - - 1137 - - -671 - - -8341 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6495 - - 7650 - - 9564 - - 10629 - - 9977 sfcLCL ODpotential -7746 - - -3885 - - 603 - - -1772 - - -10478 ODpotential blCL 9381 - - 9256 - - 10098 - - 11729 - - 12113 blCL maxRH 101 - - 100 - - 94 - - 89 - - 94 maxRH Temp@2m 82.7 - - 90.8 - - 99.8 - - 99.8 - - 94.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.4 - - 64.6 - - 65.0 - - 60.6 - - 59.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 82.5 - - 87.7 - - 96.4 - - 97.8 - - 94.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 62.4 - - 64.6 - - 65.0 - - 60.6 - - 59.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 6 - - 522 - - 584 - - 290 - - 0 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 55 - - 3791 - - 9121 - - 8377 - - 55 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 12.7 - - 13.1 - - 11.8 - - 11.2 - - 11.3 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 62.4 - - 64.6 - - 65.0 - - 60.6 - - 59.0 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 70202 15 097 16 107 17 108 13 110 13 102 70202 62872 7 163 20 048 19 114 15 108 11 118 62872 58443 4 150 11 095 10 151 12 104 7 126 58443 54999 11 102 16 148 9 197 3 279 9 330 54999 53120 7 240 8 176 10 209 10 281 13 334 53120 51257 10 253 11 264 11 211 14 242 11 300 51257 49533 8 292 15 288 8 221 14 226 10 259 49533 46858 14 294 14 295 9 227 14 231 12 242 46858 44301 19 289 12 283 9 232 11 241 11 248 44301 42313 21 284 13 276 14 264 11 262 12 250 42313 40551 20 276 15 281 17 259 17 247 17 252 40551 37852 19 258 15 263 18 232 22 232 18 239 37852 33208 17 245 12 273 13 226 17 243 19 243 33208 29891 8 309 2 156 8 222 7 216 9 239 29891 27980 4 346 2 286 7 306 3 334 2 002 27980 25625 12 122 4 241 7 340 8 020 5 043 25625 22405 14 123 3 255 8 004 9 052 7 096 22405 20156 16 138 11 174 5 136 12 130 14 142 20156 17338 22 136 19 136 11 123 17 128 18 142 17338 15714 28 133 18 119 15 113 19 124 21 153 15714 15092 27 132 17 108 17 109 20 122 23 155 15092 14481 26 128 17 105 18 106 21 118 23 155 14481 13881 24 126 18 098 19 106 20 110 22 153 13881 13293 23 128 19 098 18 106 20 107 19 146 13293 12714 22 130 20 094 17 108 19 106 18 139 12714 12146 20 134 22 093 15 111 18 105 18 135 12146 11587 18 137 23 093 13 116 14 106 17 134 11587 11038 16 137 23 095 12*122 12 119 17 134 11038 10498 15 134 23 097 12*124 12 130 17 134 10498 9965 14 129 22 099 12 122 12*133 17 132 9965 9441 13 122 21 101 13 119 11*130 15 126 9441 8925 13 116 19 103 13 119 7 117 14 121 8925 8416 11 116 18 108 14 126 7 119 11 106 8416 7915 10 116 17 114 12 133 6 122 9 096 7915 7421 10 113 16 119 10 135 6 126 7 094 7421 6932 10 107 15 121 9 136 6 130 6 096 6932 6450 10 098 14 122 8 138 5 139 6 100 6450 5973 10 087 13 122 8 140 5 146 5 107 5973 5502 9 079 12*124 7 144 5 156 5 112 5502 5037 8 070 12*125 7 150 5 167 5 121 5037 4576 7 058 11 123 6 157 5 176 5 129 4576 4122 7 059 8 126 6 163 6 184 5 139 4122 3671 7 064 7 128 6 171 6 191 4 148 3671 3227 8 067 7 129 6 176 7 196 5 157 3227 2786 10 064 7 133 6 182 7 199 5 165 2786 2351 12 059 6 135 6 188 7 200 5 173 2351 2063 10 057 6 136 5 190 7 202 5 178 2063 1849 6 063 5 137 5 191 7 202 5 180 1849 1706 5*065 5 137 5 193 6 202 4*180 1706 1635 4*069 5 139 5 194 6 203 3*182 1635 PARAMETER KEY: (parameters are described more fully at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography