DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/05 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 72.0 - - 83.4 - - 87.2 - - 84.0 - - 72.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 111 - - 485 - - 515 - - 186 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1317 - - 6570 - - 8011 - - 6925 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2127 - - 6985 - - 8178 - - 6764 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 3417 - - 8670 - - 10111 - - 9025 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2151 - - 1805 - - 1618 - - 2112 - - 4784 Hgt.Variab. W* 216 - - 602 - - 656 - - 445 - - 5 W* B/S 9 - - 6 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 18 - - 22 - - 26 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 183 - - 232 - - 234 - - 239 - - 247 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 2 - - 13 - - -11 - - -13 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7877 - - -5555 - - -4887 - - -4471 - - -8637 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11295 - - 14225 - - 14999 - - 13496 - - 10781 sfcLCL ODpotential -15450 - - -11860 - - -9809 - - -9533 - - -14547 ODpotential blCL 18867 - - 20530 - - 19920 - - 18558 - - 16691 blCL maxRH 53 - - 68 - - 71 - - 83 - - 70 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 72.0 - - 83.4 - - 87.2 - - 84.0 - - 72.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.0 - - 27.7 - - 27.8 - - 31.6 - - 32.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.0 - - 80.7 - - 84.5 - - 82.8 - - 73.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.1 - - 27.7 - - 27.8 - - 31.6 - - 33.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 111 - - 485 - - 515 - - 186 - - -24 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1317 - - 6570 - - 8011 - - 6925 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 32 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98294 14 095 18 152 8 162 3 162 6 035 98294 90885 14 093 11 114 13 121 11 104 9 124 90885 85174 15 101 11 095 14 118 12 130 9 100 85174 80409 14 103 12 138 6 135 9 107 8 108 80409 76296 5 085 10 126 8 131 7 128 3 092 76296 72658 8 156 3 206 3 216 3 031 2 338 72658 69375 11 121 2 157 3 203 3 320 2 360 69375 66364 7 218 9 220 14 223 13 257 8 233 66364 63585 13 245 13 205 14 213 22 261 23 250 63585 60907 27 250 28 239 29 238 30 241 25 256 60907 58100 38 246 36 250 38 251 36 244 37 263 58100 55183 46 252 50 254 50 260 47 257 44 259 55183 52403 53 258 55 253 54 260 51 261 45 260 52403 49898 57 263 52 256 55 257 54 259 53 262 49898 47658 61 264 54 262 57 260 56 264 59 268 47658 45642 59 260 61 263 64 264 64 268 69 271 45642 43821 48 261 60 262 67 261 73 264 78 268 43821 42156 46 268 59 264 64 256 75 260 83 264 42156 40608 50 268 59 262 62 257 74 260 84 261 40608 39157 53 265 59 257 62 259 72 261 83 258 39157 37793 54 262 59 255 62 258 70 261 80 256 37793 36480 54 260 59 256 61 256 67 260 75 258 36480 35148 53 261 59 256 61 254 65 259 70 262 35148 33769 53 262 59 256 60 252 63 257 68 265 33769 32344 52 264 58 255 58 251 61 256 69 266 32344 30857 49 265 56 256 57 251 59 254 69 265 30857 29299 46 266 53 255 57 249 58 254 67 263 29299 27670 45 265 51 254 57 249 58 254 65 261 27670 25971 44 263 50 254 56 251 57 256 63 261 25971 24204 44 262 49 253 54 253 56 257 61 262 24204 22372 43 262 48 251 52 252 53 257 57 262 22372 20471 39 258 45 251 49 250 51 256 53 261 20471 18497 38 254 44 250 47 249 49 256 48 259 18497 16489 38 254 44 247 45 247 45 253 44 257 16489 14557 35 250 41 243 42 244 40 247 40 251 14557 12802 32 244 36 238 37 238 35 239 35 243 12802 11241 28 237 31 232 31*230 30 228 33 234 11241 9853 24 234 26*227 23*226 26*225 31 230 9853 8617 20 226 21*224 23 227 26*230 29 234 8617 7516 17 224 20 225 23 229 26 233 26 242 7516 6537 17 228 19 227 23 232 27 237 24 250 6537 5671 17 228 19 230 23 235 27 239 24 252 5671 4901 16 225 18 233 22 236 27 242 24 252 4901 4209 13 221 18 236 22 238 27 243 25 250 4209 3594 10*213 18 238 22 240 27 244 24 249 3594 3078 6*195 17 240 21 241 26 244 23 249 3078 2681 4 181 17 241 21 241 26 245 21 249 2681 2407 4 178 16 242 20 242 25 245 18 248 2407 2240 3 175 15 242 19 242 23 245 15 247 2240 2144 3 176 14 242 17 242 18 246 10*247 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography