DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/05 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1602z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 36.3 - - 41.4 - - 43.2 - - 42.9 - - 40.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 15 - - -4 - - -1 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 153 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth Hcrit 3539 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 3556 - - 3556 - - 3556 - - 3557 - - 3556 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2611 - - 3403 - - 4342 - - 4598 - - 3957 Hgt.Variab. W* 39 - - 64 - - 43 - - 39 - - 27 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 10 - - 12 - - 9 - - 6 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 305 - - 307 - - 300 - - 288 - - 280 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -879 - - -1349 - - -1705 - - -1720 - - -965 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4435 - - 4905 - - 5261 - - 5277 - - 4522 sfcLCL ODpotential -2714 - - -2722 - - -2994 - - -2858 - - -2011 ODpotential blCL 6270 - - 6278 - - 6550 - - 6415 - - 5567 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 10 - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 36.3 - - 41.4 - - 43.2 - - 42.9 - - 40.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.2 - - 32.2 - - 32.4 - - 32.1 - - 33.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 36.4 - - 41.3 - - 43.3 - - 43.0 - - 41.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 28.1 - - 31.0 - - 31.2 - - 31.0 - - 32.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 15 - - -4 - - -1 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 153 - - 153 - - 153 - - 154 - - 153 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 102 - - 101 - - 102 - - 100 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98254 6 104 12 156 11 241 7 249 7 306 98254 90886 6 128 5 258 4 217 8 290 4 342 90886 85180 9 121 8 251 1 185 2 334 4 005 85180 80404 12 099 7 190 4 221 1 340 5 040 80404 76266 13 113 6 169 7 222 2 248 3 103 76266 72594 10 108 9 178 12 226 8 250 4 196 72594 69253 1 252 6 210 12 225 11 245 8 219 69253 66175 12 244 9 253 12 238 12 239 12 257 66175 63325 10 246 11 270 13 248 12 234 14 250 63325 60553 14 257 16 265 17 268 14 278 20 281 60553 57652 6 250 19 251 16 280 18 296 23 289 57652 54651 15 312 13 273 14 297 19 303 22 299 54651 51793 14 304 11 309 14 306 24 300 28 310 51793 49224 13 345 15 329 18 321 27 307 29 314 49224 46914 16 343 22 325 24 328 32 314 30 313 46914 44810 14 334 21 332 27 331 33 319 30 315 44810 42884 10 338 23 340 28 332 32 324 33 317 42884 41111 20 353 23 340 29 335 33 328 39 315 41111 39480 24 340 24 353 31 338 36 332 44 314 39480 37977 10 354 30 360 35 341 40 332 49 317 37977 36588 17 037 41 357 45 344 45 328 54 315 36588 35274 27 024 44 352 55 344 46 324 51 312 35274 33967 34 019 50 346 57 343 44 323 43 310 33967 32634 33 039 35 013 53 345 43 322 34 310 32634 31277 43 055 36 028 42 332 43 323 31 313 31277 29878 43 056 39 020 30 343 40 326 32 315 29878 28423 46 051 41 009 32 351 37 327 36 314 28423 26909 40 038 44 357 36 342 35 326 39 314 26909 25337 35 032 48 353 37 345 34 328 39 317 25337 23707 36 032 48 355 37 352 31 331 33 321 23707 22021 36 032 40 360 35 355 27 335 29 323 22021 20276 34 033 34 005 32 354 26 339 28 324 20276 18469 31 031 31 014 29 352 27 336 29 327 18469 16638 27 026 27 014 28 345 32 332 31 327 16638 14882 25 023 26 010 27 344 34 331 32 325 14882 13291 24 021 26 003 22 347 28 327 26 323 13291 11881 23 013 28 358 18 352 17 324 19 319 11881 10626 22 000 27 353 21 344 17 326 18 315 10626 9505 21 347 27 348 25 330 21 311 18 300 9505 8504 25 332 26 340 30 317 22 300 18 293 8504 7612 32 318 29 327 31 308 21 295 21 287 7612 6819 37 306 32 315 30 303 21 291 22 282 6819 6113 37 301 31 309 29 300 19 288 20 279 6113 5476 35 298 29 306 26 299 17 287 18 277 5476 4907 30 298 26 306 24 299 15 287 15 275 4907 4429 25 299 24 306 21 299 14 287 12 275 4429 4059 20 301 21 307 18 299 11 287 9 276 4059 3802 16 303 18 307 15 300 9 287 7 279 3802 3646 14*304 16 307 13 300 8*287 6 280 3646 3556 10*305 12*307 9*300 6*288 4*280 3556 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography