DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1033z - - 1341z - - 1624z - - 1911z - - 2210z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.3 - - 66.5 - - 74.0 - - 70.6 - - 54.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -49 - - 136 - - 208 - - -13 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1387 - - 5175 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4496 - - 5257 - - 8250 - - 4496 - - 4496 Hcrit BL Top 4514 - - 6215 - - 10003 - - 4514 - - 4514 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 72 - - 2392 - - 2847 - - 7744 - - 42 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 239 - - 427 - - 7 - - 7 W* B/S 0 - - 15 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 3 - - 10 - - 3 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 034 - - 116 - - 171 - - 189 - - 023 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -20 - - -4 - - 16 - - 8 - - -19 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6681 - - -9273 - - -8604 - - -12535 - - -8451 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11195 - - 15489 - - 18608 - - 17050 - - 12966 sfcLCL ODpotential -18308 - - -15943 - - -14880 - - -18414 - - -17721 ODpotential blCL 22822 - - 22158 - - 24883 - - 22928 - - 22235 blCL maxRH 22 - - 24 - - 24 - - 27 - - 19 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.3 - - 66.5 - - 74.0 - - 70.6 - - 54.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 12.6 - - 14.6 - - 7.6 - - 11.5 - - 14.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 46.1 - - 66.1 - - 73.5 - - 72.0 - - 55.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 12.6 - - 14.6 - - 7.6 - - 11.5 - - 14.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -49 - - 136 - - 208 - - -13 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1387 - - 5175 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 78114 33 065 35 070 38 066 35 078 34 078 78114 63323 6 102 2 033 8 118 11 054 10 101 63323 59167 4 353 6 031 12 168 3 276 2 301 59167 55354 8 149 4 084 9 135 6 211 7 258 55354 52190 2 121 4 145 5 131 11 218 10 292 52190 48819 8 001 7 175 4 235 11 202 13 268 48819 47135 4 063 11 172 8 248 7 218 12 262 47135 45581 2 232 11 175 13 235 7 248 10 268 45581 44112 3 241 12 180 13 223 9 258 12 270 44112 42891 6 247 13 188 14 219 11 244 12 270 42891 41987 8 236 15 199 15 213 13 224 14 260 41987 41273 8 226 16 200 13 207 20 224 16 252 41273 40306 8 206 15 184 10 196 24 223 17 243 40306 39382 8 215 12 148 9 190 22 218 19 253 39382 38569 12 205 7 137 12 207 18 218 24 247 38569 37247 12 166 6 193 13 214 16 225 26 232 37247 34550 14 137 12 212 15 213 19 230 23 228 34550 32013 17 138 16 202 17 211 19 231 23 231 32013 28235 16 147 16 179 17 203 15 219 18 232 28235 22697 13 167 11 160 14 177 12 180 11 200 22697 19794 14 178 11 168 13 172 11 173 9 170 19794 17525 14 181 12 178 12 183 8 193 7 142 17525 16182 11 180 10 175 12 182 6 202 4 150 16182 15057 8 179 8 164 12 174 6 188 4 269 15057 13923 6 194 6 166 11 162 6 163 5 264 13923 13299 6 215 5 180 10 166 7 146 5 221 13299 12841 7 233 4 205 8 175 6 129 4 193 12841 12389 8 241 5 224 8 178 6 114 5 172 12389 11943 8 240 6 222 7 179 8 106 6 156 11943 11503 8 235 6 206 6 175 9 108 9 150 11503 11068 7 227 7 187 5 164 10 118 14 153 11068 10639 6 219 7 173 4 144 11 128 17 157 10639 10215 5 214 8 161 6*132 12 138 19 158 10215 9796 5 208 10 156 8*133 12 146 19 156 9796 9382 5 199 12 158 11 143 11 155 18 155 9382 8973 5 184 14 161 14 152 10 163 17 157 8973 8569 6 167 16 164 16 158 10 170 16 161 8569 8169 8 158 18 164 15 164 10 174 15 163 8169 7773 10 159 18 163 13 172 10 178 14 165 7773 7381 13 165 18 162 12 176 9 180 13 169 7381 6994 15 168 17 160 11 178 9 182 12 171 6994 6610 15 168 15 159 10 181 9 185 12 175 6610 6230 13 165 12*157 10 185 9 186 11 178 6230 5854 10 157 7*146 9 187 9 188 10 180 5854 5482 6 132 4 102 8 190 9 190 8 181 5482 5114 7 110 3 097 8 194 9 191 5 172 5114 4871 10 090 2 104 7 195 8 192 3 123 4871 4691 14 062 2 113 6 196 7 191 5 074 4691 4571 12*045 1 126 6 198 6*192 10*044 4571 4513 7*034 1 137 5 197 3*189 6*023 4513 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography