DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 01/05 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0715z - - 1020z - - 1329z - - 1558z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.4 - - 42.3 - - 43.4 - - 40.4 - - 37.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -23 - - 34 - - 191 - - -3 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 55 - - 55 - - 2438 - - 55 - - 55 BL Depth Hcrit 748 - - 748 - - 2025 - - 748 - - 748 Hcrit BL Top 764 - - 764 - - 3147 - - 764 - - 764 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1074 - - 1913 - - 381 - - 2573 - - 2431 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 50 - - 315 - - 18 - - 16 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 19 - - 7 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 332 - - 337 - - 304 - - 316 - - 327 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 12 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -274 - - -1306 - - -1097 - - -3007 - - -2562 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1039 - - 2070 - - 4244 - - 3772 - - 3326 sfcLCL ODpotential -9267 - - -9154 - - -10287 - - -12325 - - -12288 ODpotential blCL 10031 - - 9918 - - 13434 - - 13089 - - 13052 blCL maxRH 100 - - 94 - - 75 - - 73 - - 91 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.4 - - 42.3 - - 43.4 - - 40.4 - - 37.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.6 - - 36.1 - - 27.6 - - 26.7 - - 25.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 40.2 - - 41.8 - - 42.1 - - 40.0 - - 37.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.6 - - 36.1 - - 27.6 - - 26.7 - - 25.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -23 - - 34 - - 191 - - -3 - - -22 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 55 - - 55 - - 2438 - - 55 - - 55 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 74 - - 0 - - 0 - - 63 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 72875 10 241 19 234 12 267 16 268 16 260 72875 61114 42 273 38 293 33 244 42 257 31 260 61114 54916 69 249 61 253 41 259 49 264 58 276 54916 51082 63 251 57 255 62 262 73 267 106 272 51082 49664 61 261 67 273 78 268 94 267 110 261 49664 45805 83 273 98 275 108 263 120 263 116 258 45805 42488 96 271 104 272 107 262 131 256 107 258 42488 41214 100 271 99 273 113 267 108 265 104 263 41214 40733 102 273 102 274 115 267 113 269 108 268 40733 40515 104 275 106 274 117 268 116 269 112 270 40515 40316 107 276 110 276 120 270 119 270 117 271 40316 40059 114 278 119 278 126 271 121 272 124 272 40059 39731 120 278 129 279 133 271 127 274 130 272 39731 39227 124 278 142 281 141 272 139 275 142 274 39227 38763 135 280 151 281 152 273 149 274 158 274 38763 37470 137 280 143 278 156 275 157 273 164 273 37470 35358 131 279 134 275 149 273 142 265 161 270 35358 34033 123 278 127 273 132 270 130 261 151 267 34033 33100 111 279 120 272 121 268 120 259 142 262 33100 28104 101 274 112 271 106 263 110 259 128 260 28104 26815 88 268 97 263 98 256 101 258 124 265 26815 25384 81 261 93 258 95 253 95 260 115 268 25384 23844 72 251 84 252 93 250 90 262 105 268 23844 22404 70 249 79 247 92 250 85 261 94 266 22404 20681 63 250 66 240 83 252 80 259 87 257 20681 18828 59 247 66 244 70 250 76 257 83 259 18828 17380 53 244 68 248 62 247 73 257 72 258 17380 15697 49 242 63 251 56 247 68 256 67 253 15697 14393 45 239 56 254 52 249 60 253 67 249 14393 12331 39 243 52 251 48 252 55 252 64 246 12331 10428 40 253 47 246 49 254 49 246 56 245 10428 9311 41 256 46 241 50 251 48 247 53 245 9311 8490 42 258 46 241 48 251 45 249 51 246 8490 7625 43 259 46 241 46 251 39 251 46 245 7625 6481 44 261 45 242 42 252 33 253 37 243 6481 5752 45 262 44 243 38 256 28 258 32 248 5752 5285 45 263 43 245 34 261 24 264 29 253 5285 4825 45 263 41 247 31 267 19 274 25 257 4825 4374 45 265 39 252 29 276 17 283 21 266 4374 3932 43 266 38 259 28 281 18 293 19 282 3932 3498 38 271 36 268 27*287 20 303 18 303 3498 3072 28 280 33 278 23*297 20 307 20 320 3072 2653 25 291 26 295 21 301 17 314 21 326 2653 2240 25 307 20 310 20 303 17 316 20 329 2240 1832 22 322 16 320 20 304 16 316 18 329 1832 1428 18 331 13 328 19 306 15 317 16 329 1428 1161 14 333 11 332 17 306 14 317 15 328 1161 962 11 333 10 334 16 307 13 317 13 328 962 830 9 332 8 335 14 308 10 317 10 327 830 764 5*332 5*337 11 309 7*316 7*327 764 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography