DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1033z - - 1341z - - 1624z - - 1911z - - 2210z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 53.5 - - 74.7 - - 86.6 - - 84.8 - - 70.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -77 - - 149 - - 193 - - -11 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 63 - - 1063 - - 5520 - - 63 - - 63 BL Depth Hcrit 2147 - - 2147 - - 5714 - - 2147 - - 2147 Hcrit BL Top 2163 - - 3163 - - 7620 - - 2163 - - 2163 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 171 - - 709 - - 2936 - - 8549 - - 66 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 221 - - 418 - - 6 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 9 - - 15 - - 10 - - 3 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 152 - - 136 - - 170 - - 021 - - 232 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 8 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -4 - - -11 - - 2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9439 - - -13106 - - -12134 - - -16573 - - -9780 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11602 - - 16270 - - 19755 - - 18737 - - 11943 sfcLCL ODpotential -21039 - - -20246 - - -18140 - - -22795 - - -17950 ODpotential blCL 23202 - - 23409 - - 25760 - - 24958 - - 20113 blCL maxRH 17 - - 20 - - 41 - - 18 - - 29 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 53.5 - - 74.7 - - 86.6 - - 84.8 - - 70.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 12.0 - - 11.2 - - 6.1 - - 9.2 - - 26.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.0 - - 73.9 - - 85.2 - - 85.1 - - 70.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 12.0 - - 11.2 - - 6.1 - - 9.2 - - 26.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -77 - - 149 - - 193 - - -11 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 63 - - 1063 - - 5520 - - 63 - - 63 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 80140 6 018 14 016 11 042 10 047 9 078 80140 63737 10 343 5 268 6 321 8 314 5 352 63737 58869 3 292 12 223 7 307 11 214 14 268 58869 55510 8 346 10 181 17 222 22 226 23 257 55510 52469 16 262 7 239 16 228 16 232 17 255 52469 48689 20 245 17 239 23 235 22 255 23 257 48689 47022 20 248 18 234 27 230 27 254 26 255 47022 45727 20 254 16 235 26 226 27 239 25 244 45727 44659 21 254 17 242 24 233 25 233 26 244 44659 43817 22 249 19 249 24 241 21 231 25 249 43817 43052 23 243 23 251 27 246 20 242 27 257 43052 42259 23 239 27 247 31 245 26 249 29 261 42259 41133 24 236 29 243 33 241 29 242 33 261 41133 39997 24 234 29 238 31 234 29 235 35 253 39997 38831 24 241 29 235 30 230 29 228 34 243 38831 37187 22 246 27 233 29 226 28 218 33 232 37187 34415 16 245 21 227 24 214 25 215 29 223 34415 30366 9 227 15 218 18 206 21 213 23 221 30366 26426 4 217 11 205 11 204 14 211 16 226 26426 20446 4 201 6 176 9 205 7 218 8 211 20446 18399 8 190 5 169 10 202 6 226 6 199 18399 17561 9 181 6 161 10 191 6 222 6 198 17561 16432 8 174 6 156 8 167 7 174 7 179 16432 14844 7 141 6 161 10 143 9 139 9 133 14844 14076 5 123 5 109 9 139 10 136 8 125 14076 12260 4 079 6 082 6 134 7 151 3 137 12260 11727 5 049 5 077 5 142 6 154 2 158 11727 11201 5 027 4 075 4 153 6 158 3 186 11201 10684 4 007 2 123 4 170 6 173 6 197 10684 10173 2 338 3 179 3 192 8 185 8 199 10173 9669 2 265 3 196 4 222 9 191 9 196 9669 9173 3 218 4 231 6 237 10 194 8 192 9173 8684 3 193 7 255 8 241 10 194 5 170 8684 8201 3 156 8 256 10 239 9 190 5 150 8201 7724 4 122 10 247 11*234 6 180 5 148 7724 7254 4 090 12 232 13*228 5 167 5 151 7254 6789 4 075 13 217 14 223 4 156 6 151 6789 6329 4 086 12 201 14 218 4 145 8 150 6329 5875 5 125 12 179 12 205 4 135 10 149 5875 5426 10 152 14 164 11 183 3 128 11 147 5426 4983 17 153 16 163 11 166 3 117 13 143 4983 4545 23 149 19 158 11 154 3 107 14 141 4545 4111 30 144 23 152 12 147 3 096 16 137 4111 3683 36 138 26 143 13 141 3 085 17 132 3683 3260 38 133 24*135 13 138 3 070 18 127 3260 2843 32 125 18*134 13 135 3 059 18 121 2843 2569 23 133 17 135 12 134 3 047 12 108 2569 2365 18 142 15 136 11 133 3 040 5 090 2365 2230 14 148 13 137 10 132 4 032 2 074 2230 2163 9*152 11 137 8 132 3*021 2*232 2163 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography