DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/18 Bend_OR 3403ft pt44003@44.099,-121.036,3455ft SPONSORED BY: Wade Carman BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.4 - - 57.1 - - 63.4 - - 55.8 - - 47.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 89 - - 418 - - 552 - - 380 - - 36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 847 - - 3613 - - 6425 - - 4699 - - 3566 BL Depth Hcrit 3540 - - 5900 - - 8238 - - 6718 - - 3540 Hcrit BL Top 4250 - - 7016 - - 9828 - - 8102 - - 6969 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1655 - - 1462 - - 1608 - - 1492 - - 1764 Hgt.Variab. W* 175 - - 475 - - 633 - - 503 - - 209 W* B/S 12 - - 13 - - 7 - - 4 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 7 - - 16 - - 21 - - 20 BL Wind Direction 303 - - 296 - - 299 - - 314 - - 320 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 6 - - 10 - - 7 - - 7 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 3 - - 22 - - 11 - - 10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4671 - - -4676 - - -2103 - - -592 - - -294 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 8921 - - 11693 - - 11932 - - 8695 - - 7263 sfcLCL ODpotential -11892 - - -10128 - - -5615 - - -3217 - - -2415 ODpotential blCL 16142 - - 17144 - - 15443 - - 11319 - - 9384 blCL maxRH 50 - - 64 - - 58 - - 71 - - 78 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.4 - - 57.1 - - 63.4 - - 55.8 - - 47.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.0 - - 18.1 - - 23.0 - - 29.9 - - 28.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.5 - - 54.6 - - 60.4 - - 53.6 - - 47.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 21.7 - - 17.7 - - 22.5 - - 29.7 - - 28.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 89 - - 418 - - 552 - - 380 - - 36 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 847 - - 3613 - - 6425 - - 4699 - - 3566 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 12 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98780 29 100 25 101 22 093 27 102 17 115 98780 91336 25 108 20 112 15 112 15 102 16 094 91336 85548 17 104 15 117 13 135 8 111 13 088 85548 80713 9 112 10 126 12 127 5 138 3 124 80713 76542 7 103 6 146 6 178 3 206 3 108 76542 72853 6 291 4 344 2 199 8 235 3 261 72853 69515 12 223 15 270 5 335 4 230 7 255 69515 66441 4 157 17 252 16 300 9 295 10 274 66441 63587 11 334 12 239 21 274 5 295 2 299 63587 60815 26 302 11 286 20 274 24 284 18 296 60815 57916 30 292 22 290 25 274 29 275 30 270 57916 54909 33 292 30 287 32 277 30 286 26 276 54909 52031 39 288 36 289 40 282 37 293 29 290 52031 49441 43 285 44 286 42 280 42 289 37 292 49441 47127 46 284 46 284 39 283 44 285 42 290 47127 45035 51 285 47 289 42 292 46 286 45 288 45035 43125 56 284 53 290 52 291 53 290 49 291 43125 41373 60 285 59 288 59 288 62 292 58 295 41373 39754 64 286 62 289 62 290 71 293 67 293 39754 38251 66 286 63 292 70 296 77 297 71 292 38251 36854 68 289 65 289 81 298 89 300 80 295 36854 35530 71 285 67 286 79 294 98 297 89 294 35530 34209 69 284 69 286 75 296 97 292 92 292 34209 32861 68 287 70 287 77 300 89 291 93 290 32861 31484 70 289 71 286 76 297 82 295 89 288 31484 30065 71 287 71 286 73 291 82 298 82 288 30065 28591 70 286 71 286 70 288 79 297 78 292 28591 27063 66 289 70 286 68 288 73 292 77 292 27063 25481 65 292 69 287 66 287 67 286 75 290 25481 23844 65 293 65 287 63 285 65 280 73 287 23844 22154 63 293 61 287 60 284 64 276 70 285 22154 20405 59 293 56 287 59 284 63 277 67 285 20405 18595 54 295 50 286 55 283 61 281 63 286 18595 16759 47 296 44 284 49 282 53 283 58 287 16759 14995 40 294 39 285 42 279 44 282 52 287 14995 13393 36 290 35 284 36 276 37 280 45 287 13393 11968 33 288 32 283 30 273 32 277 37 287 11968 10698 30 286 30 284 22*272 26 273 28 287 10698 9566 25 284 27 285 17*278 20 273 22 289 9566 8556 20 283 22 284 16 283 18*293 19 298 8556 7656 15 287 16*282 16 289 18*299 19*309 7656 6857 11 293 10*281 16 298 19 305 20*315 6857 6144 7 297 7 286 16 304 22 314 21 319 6144 5499 6 294 7 294 16 307 22 316 21 321 5499 4923 4 288 6 298 17 310 23 318 21 321 4923 4439 3*294 6 304 17 312 23 319 21 321 4439 4064 3*299 6 309 17 313 22 319 20 322 4064 3805 3 303 6 311 16 314 22 320 19 322 3805 3648 3 307 5 312 16 315 21 320 17 322 3648 3557 2 307 5 313 14 315 17 320 13 322 3557 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography