DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 07/03 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1042z - - 1344z - - 1623z - - 1913z - - 2211z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 73.1 - - 83.2 - - 89.3 - - 81.2 - - 76.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 48 - - 252 - - 326 - - 45 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 335 - - 6165 - - 9370 - - 3952 - - 278 BL Depth Hcrit 4496 - - 9162 - - 11840 - - 6465 - - 4496 Hcrit BL Top 5163 - - 10993 - - 14198 - - 8780 - - 5106 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 994 - - 2623 - - 873 - - 4520 - - 3137 Hgt.Variab. W* 112 - - 498 - - 618 - - 262 - - 24 W* B/S 4 - - 42 - - 47 - - 6 - - 2 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 2 - - 2 - - 8 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 071 - - 279 - - 235 - - 325 - - 222 Direction Wind Shear 8 - - 5 - - 3 - - 4 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -20 - - -30 - - -12 - - 6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1654 - - 1824 - - 3213 - - 1136 - - -1221 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6817 - - 9169 - - 10985 - - 7644 - - 6327 sfcLCL ODpotential -4965 - - -556 - - 368 - - -1460 - - -4994 ODpotential blCL 10128 - - 11549 - - 13830 - - 10240 - - 10100 blCL maxRH 71 - - 84 - - 65 - - 97 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 746 - - 838 - - 1598 - - 1109 CAPE Temp@2m 73.1 - - 83.2 - - 89.3 - - 81.2 - - 76.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 58.4 - - 58.1 - - 56.2 - - 62.7 - - 63.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 73.7 - - 82.4 - - 88.0 - - 81.7 - - 77.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.4 - - 58.1 - - 56.2 - - 62.7 - - 63.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 48 - - 252 - - 326 - - 45 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 335 - - 6165 - - 9370 - - 3952 - - 278 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 35 - - 0 - - 88 - - 51 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 10 - - 8 - - 12 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 74921 12 144 12 105 14 133 10 131 13 111 74921 61592 12 112 12 152 7 066 7 092 10 098 61592 59191 7 066 3 214 10 123 7 168 5 159 59191 55979 10 215 16 228 15 269 15 282 12 281 55979 53043 22 176 26 207 32 210 26 229 21 233 53043 51674 24 284 27 272 24 269 26 253 25 269 51674 49932 43 252 44 257 33 252 29 256 25 259 49932 45472 47 240 49 247 46 231 32 247 33 259 45472 42545 53 231 50 235 52 227 25 228 37 257 42545 40070 56 222 54 228 52 226 27 225 36 240 40070 37777 59 210 53 225 44 226 37 224 38 229 37777 36086 54 206 48 229 41 230 38 230 36 228 36086 34033 46 210 42 225 27 234 32 237 30 234 34033 31445 29 222 30 227 23 228 28 241 20 232 31445 28389 27 232 21 239 15 227 24 238 18 232 28389 26004 17 257 12 240 8 250 11 247 15 250 26004 23106 15 266 9 242 6 279 9 262 15 273 23106 21483 13 267 6 299 6 334 7 254 15 292 21483 18642 14 281 6 334 7 343 3 174 14 291 18642 16377 10 306 4 313 7 308 3 169 10 258 16377 15869 9 318 3 280 7 299 3 156 9 248 15869 15368 9 326 2 272 7 294 3 134 8 236 15368 14876 8 342 0 092 6 287 3 100 8 217 14876 14391 6 008 2 087 5*265 3 088 7 188 14391 13913 6 029 4 092 5*234 3 059 8 163 13913 13441 7 035 5 101 5 214 3 032 9 148 13441 12976 7 031 5 113 6 203 3 359 10 142 12976 12517 8 028 5 122 6 192 3 336 9 140 12517 12063 8 028 4 127 5 187 4 314 9 139 12063 11615 8 028 3 135 3 186 6 304 8 142 11615 11173 7 026 2*133 3 182 7 303 7 149 11173 10736 7 025 1*137 2 177 7 302 6 159 10736 10304 6 024 0 092 2 182 8 300 6 170 10304 9877 6 023 1 002 1 182 8 302 5 176 9877 9456 5 024 1 354 1 196 9 303 5 177 9456 9039 5 024 2 357 1 216 9*307 4 174 9039 8628 4 029 3 353 1 258 9*309 3 171 8628 8222 4 035 3 346 1 282 10 311 1 190 8222 7820 4 041 3 336 2 285 9 315 1 264 7820 7423 4 049 3 312 2 286 10 317 2 283 7423 7030 5 055 3 282 3 287 9 322 2 291 7030 6641 6 062 4 264 4 285 9 326 3 295 6641 6257 7 064 4 256 4 280 8 330 2 301 6257 5876 9 066 5 252 4 277 8 335 2 312 5876 5499 11*068 5 248 4 275 8 338 1 272 5499 5126 10*069 5 246 4 275 8 339 2*222 5126 4880 5 069 5 244 4 272 8 337 3*215 4880 4695 4 074 5 242 4 272 7 334 3 217 4695 4573 3 077 5 241 4 272 6 331 3 227 4573 4513 2 082 4 240 4 269 6 329 2 239 4513 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography