DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 03/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1041z - - 1344z - - 1621z - - 1922z - - 2208z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.6 - - 62.1 - - 66.6 - - 64.5 - - 51.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 28 - - 382 - - 438 - - 82 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 260 - - 2953 - - 4675 - - 4350 - - 63 BL Depth Hcrit 2147 - - 4051 - - 5434 - - 4247 - - 2147 Hcrit BL Top 2360 - - 5053 - - 6775 - - 6450 - - 2163 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 678 - - 1729 - - 1508 - - 1387 - - 60 Hgt.Variab. W* 80 - - 426 - - 520 - - 291 - - 7 W* B/S 2 - - 17 - - 8 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 5 - - 12 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 247 - - 274 - - 303 - - 304 - - 278 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 12 - - 13 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -7 - - -4 - - -7 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1697 - - -6872 - - -9348 - - -8820 - - -8865 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4057 - - 11925 - - 16124 - - 15271 - - 11028 sfcLCL ODpotential -5108 - - -12405 - - -15332 - - -14655 - - -16927 ODpotential blCL 7468 - - 17458 - - 22107 - - 21105 - - 19090 blCL maxRH 69 - - 71 - - 28 - - 29 - - 39 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.6 - - 62.1 - - 66.6 - - 64.5 - - 51.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 38.4 - - 17.0 - - 2.2 - - 4.3 - - 11.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.3 - - 59.4 - - 63.9 - - 63.8 - - 52.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 38.4 - - 17.0 - - 2.2 - - 4.3 - - 11.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 28 - - 382 - - 438 - - 82 - - -14 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 260 - - 2953 - - 4675 - - 4350 - - 63 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 75417 32 270 33 282 40 270 47 281 76 309 75417 61135 38 282 31 258 42 259 30 288 31 306 61135 56651 36 294 30 294 42 296 40 311 44 303 56651 51902 51 284 46 279 47 301 39 297 41 312 51902 48289 47 260 53 296 53 306 53 320 53 327 48289 45389 41 280 57 284 59 291 64 308 55 326 45389 44030 48 285 60 281 64 281 71 303 59 319 44030 42885 44 283 56 274 51 295 66 293 63 319 42885 41900 42 285 56 276 54 315 54 297 65 321 41900 41215 46 291 53 290 59 316 58 313 61 318 41215 40780 51 295 54 298 60 324 61 317 63 318 40780 40082 52 293 57 304 60 326 64 323 74 330 40082 39247 54 296 60 309 61 320 66 325 98 335 39247 38041 57 303 66 316 66 319 79 333 98 335 38041 37001 58 307 69 319 69 314 86 334 99 334 37001 35894 60 310 72 320 71 323 77 331 98 338 35894 34233 63 313 75 319 71 324 79 335 96 339 34233 32439 66 314 75 316 75 325 83 336 92 339 32439 30881 64 310 77 316 77 326 87 336 91 338 30881 28723 71 315 80 316 77 327 88 333 89 331 28723 26595 73 318 79 315 78 327 82 329 88 325 26595 24180 70 316 76 314 76 322 73 319 82 324 24180 22976 66 309 71 310 76 317 72 317 73 320 22976 22067 61 303 61 306 69 315 69 311 60 309 22067 20307 59 303 56 303 61 313 58 313 55 311 20307 17506 53 293 51 301 51 308 53 311 54 315 17506 15409 52 290 47 290 46 306 47 309 52 314 15409 13698 53 283 43 297 40 305 40 317 45 321 13698 11768 51 286 36 308 34 311 34 318 34 329 11768 10780 44 288 34 313 30 321 29 320 28 329 10780 8436 38 290 29 308 29 327 24 332 18 347 8436 8195 31 288 25 300 23*329 19*344 21 009 8195 6599 26 285 20 285 18*320 13*330 12 017 6599 6115 24 299 18 281 16 312 11 310 9 009 6115 5827 23 303 18 280 15 301 11 306 8 358 5827 5543 22 310 17 281 15 301 10 304 7 349 5543 5260 21 315 16*284 14 300 10 303 6 332 5260 4979 18 319 14*287 14 300 10 302 7 312 4979 4701 15 321 10 287 14 299 10 302 9 303 4701 4426 12 321 5 272 14 299 10 301 10 302 4426 4152 10 318 4 270 14 299 10 300 10 303 4152 3880 9 313 4 270 13 301 10 299 11 305 3880 3611 8 304 4 269 13 303 10 299 11 306 3611 3343 9 296 4 266 8 294 10 298 11 309 3343 3078 10 291 3 265 8 294 9 298 12 310 3078 2814 11 282 3 265 8 293 9 297 12 313 2814 2552 12*266 3 265 7 294 9 297 12 313 2552 2356 10*249 3 263 7 294 8 296 11 310 2356 2227 8 247 2 267 6 293 7 295 8 296 2227 2163 7 246 2 267 6 295 6 296 4*278 2163 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography