DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 02/15 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 44.3 - - 47.3 - - 46.9 - - 44.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 38 - - 4 - - -1 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 744 - - 193 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 1275 - - 1275 - - 1276 - - 1275 Hcrit BL Top - - - 2181 - - 1630 - - 1293 - - 1293 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1255 - - 3295 - - 2583 - - 1770 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 128 - - 47 - - 12 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 10 - - 7 - - 7 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 209 - - 194 - - 155 - - 081 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 2 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -1 - - -1 - - -4 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - 381 - - -220 - - -114 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 1800 - - 1850 - - 1407 - - 1292 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -478 - - -823 - - -651 - - -701 ODpotential blCL - - - 2659 - - 2453 - - 1944 - - 1994 blCL maxRH - - - 99 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 20 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 44.3 - - 47.3 - - 46.9 - - 44.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 41.1 - - 43.8 - - 45.1 - - 43.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 44.0 - - 47.3 - - 46.9 - - 44.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 40.3 - - 43.1 - - 44.8 - - 43.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 38 - - 4 - - -1 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 744 - - 193 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 97 - - 102 - - 102 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96506 32 077 34 043 32 061 28 058 96506 89414 33 076 31 063 25 072 25 051 89414 83872 25 078 22 075 12 072 19 030 83872 79239 13 040 14 087 3 141 10 334 79239 75238 7 033 3 110 3 030 9 304 75238 71686 4 012 4 249 11 303 9 278 71686 68458 9 312 9 241 13 276 12 283 68458 65492 12 299 15 277 20 288 19 293 65492 62749 27 295 25 283 26 289 28 272 62749 60088 41 281 33 292 33 284 29 269 60088 57299 43 270 44 289 44 280 35 281 57299 54389 42 275 54 280 51 274 51 287 54389 51603 57 284 58 278 61 275 71 271 51603 49094 68 277 60 278 68 269 65 269 49094 46835 68 273 61 281 65 271 64 281 46835 44789 67 272 67 280 72 278 70 281 44789 42922 70 274 71 277 82 271 72 276 42922 41211 82 276 84 272 88 264 73 269 41211 39642 98 271 100 264 92 257 79 258 39642 38195 109 260 103 252 98 250 90 248 38195 36843 109 256 98 249 97 246 97 233 36843 35544 102 260 96 254 89 247 91 224 35544 34233 96 261 97 255 84 252 84 230 34233 32871 86 263 96 256 83 252 81 235 32871 31457 74 264 91 256 83 249 76 237 31457 29978 70 263 88 252 82 249 76 240 29978 28422 70 263 87 249 78 250 72 242 28422 26794 69 265 81 249 71 249 60 248 26794 25094 62 262 69 253 61 250 52 251 25094 23324 52 251 61 258 53 247 48 255 23324 21487 39 246 59 259 53 239 44 258 21487 19574 33 252 55 258 53 237 37 258 19574 17581 31 261 46 257 48 240 32 260 17581 15549 28 262 35 257 40 245 31 259 15549 13594 26 260 28 261 35 249 31 258 13594 11818 22 264 26 262 37 255 28 259 11818 10241 17 265 23 253 39 247 27 264 10241 8844 14 267 23 241 39 229 26 259 8844 7606 16 261 29 233 35 222 24 245 7606 6511 19 243 32 224 26 229 22 226 6511 5543 21 226 30 211 21 230 19 200 5543 4692 21 220 25 209 20 215 16 180 4692 3941 19 220 21 210 19 189 13 171 3941 3270 17 222 18 209 17 177 11 156 3270 2677 15*219 14 207 16 170 10 143 2677 2182 13*215 11 201 14 165 9 133 2182 1803 10 209 9*196 12 159 8 122 1803 1541 9 206 8*195 10 156 7 108 1541 1383 8 205 7 194 9*155 6*098 1383 1292 6 204 6 194 6*155 3*081 1292 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography