DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/18 Waynesboro_VA 1437ft pt32142@38.180,-78.911,1424ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.0 degF SPONSORED BY: Shenandoah Valley Soaring www.svsoar.org RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 12Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - - - - 0659z - - 1002z - - 1334z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - - - - 58.4 - - 53.8 - - 49.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 56 - - -21 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 1875 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - - - - 1276 - - 1276 - - 1276 Hcrit BL Top - - - - - - 3312 - - 1293 - - 1293 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - - - - 1437 - - 1593 - - 681 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - - - - 197 - - 12 - - 8 W* B/S - - - - - - 2 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - - - - 17 - - 9 - - 9 BL Wind Direction - - - - - - 189 - - 154 - - 139 Direction Wind Shear - - - - - - 13 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - - - - 8 - - -4 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - - - - -2503 - - -1869 - - -184 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - - - - 5815 - - 3162 - - 1477 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - - - - -8413 - - -5010 - - -4439 ODpotential blCL - - - - - - 11725 - - 6303 - - 5732 blCL maxRH - - - - - - 89 - - 96 - - 100 maxRH CAPE - - - - - - 0 - - 0 - - 70 CAPE Temp@2m - - - - - - 58.4 - - 53.8 - - 49.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - - - - 37.6 - - 44.5 - - 47.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - - - - 58.2 - - 54.6 - - 50.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - - - - 37.1 - - 44.3 - - 47.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - - - - 56 - - -21 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - - - - 1875 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - - - - 54 - - 82 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - - - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96392 36 254 24 278 15 297 96392 89368 18 279 16 261 17 282 89368 83909 14 265 19 236 18 269 83909 79315 13 220 18 221 20 258 79315 75311 11 228 21 240 22 255 75311 71770 7 247 21 242 19 244 71770 68570 17 268 16 244 22 232 68570 65631 24 244 23 259 26 246 65631 62920 26 229 35 255 28 254 62920 60299 39 234 40 245 36 262 60299 57559 45 233 40 238 43 248 57559 54714 46 251 47 242 56 236 54714 52001 55 250 61 238 64 231 52001 49554 56 250 67 234 69 229 49554 47340 57 259 66 241 72 236 47340 45311 71 260 81 249 82 246 45311 43445 78 254 85 243 87 240 43445 41729 79 242 84 239 86 233 41729 40144 84 241 84 241 85 232 40144 38671 95 241 96 237 82 230 38671 37294 102 239 108 232 89 229 37294 35970 98 238 111 230 97 226 35970 34631 95 236 109 227 101 220 34631 33249 94 232 105 226 102 214 33249 31816 86 232 97 227 98 215 31816 30318 78 239 87 227 103 219 30318 28748 66 244 71 225 96 222 28748 27104 48 239 61 230 84 222 27104 25385 43 228 58 238 77 222 25385 23592 36 219 53 232 66 219 23592 21730 29 215 51 228 56 217 21730 19793 30 207 47 216 49 216 19793 17776 33 203 48 196 44 213 17776 15729 36 195 53 183 44 214 15729 13767 37 199 49 183 53 214 13767 11986 37 206 46 190 56 206 11986 10400 34 207 47 197 51 196 10400 8991 32 209 48 203 48 189 8991 7741 33 210 45 204 47 188 7741 6630 36 210 42 201 45 186 6630 5644 38 209 42 196 43 184 5644 4773 36 206 42 190 42 180 4773 4002 30*204 41 186 42 176 4002 3312 23*198 38 183 41 172 3312 2703 19 191 31 179 37 167 2703 2197 17 186 24 172 30 161 2197 1810 16 183 19 163 24 154 1810 1545 15 182 16 159 18 145 1545 1384 13 181 14*156 15*143 1384 1292 10 181 9*154 9*139 1292 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography